Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Aral Sea

Aral Sea Restoration Could Prevent 605 Million Tons of CO2 Emissions

The drying of the Aral Sea has created another environmental problem: according to a study, exposed lakebed sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere between 1960 and 2022. Organic carbon remains stored in the sediments, and restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. This gives efforts to restore the Aral Sea region a new climate dimension. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Spain’s Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), was published in Science on July 16. The findings add another consideration to restoration efforts already underway across the region, from refilling part of the sea in Kazakhstan to planting saxaul and rehabilitating degraded land in Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea’s Carbon Legacy When the Aral Sea was still a fully-fledged body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide, while some organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, those sediments were exposed to the air, organic matter began to decompose, and the stored carbon started returning to the atmosphere as CO2. At the same time, winds carry salt and dust from the newly formed Aralkum Desert, spreading the consequences of the sea’s disappearance far beyond its former shoreline. In 2022, researchers conducted an expedition to the dried Aral Sea bed, collecting sediment samples and measuring how much CO2 was being released. Combined with satellite data, this allowed them to estimate carbon losses as the sea retreated. According to the researchers’ calculations, exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2. New vegetation growing on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of those emissions. A significant amount of organic carbon remains in the sediments. The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. The authors also considered the economics of such an effort. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects as a benchmark, they estimate that the avoided emissions could potentially be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. That money could theoretically become one source of funding for ecosystem restoration. Researchers estimate that about $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the area covered by the Aral Sea in 1960, while potentially generating about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Restoring the Entire Aral Sea Is No Longer the Goal Under current conditions, fully restoring the sea is widely considered unrealistic. The central issue is water. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow through several Central Asian countries. Significantly increasing the amount of water reaching the Aral Sea would be impossible without basin-wide agreements, irrigation modernization, and reductions in water losses. This is why restoration of the Aral Sea remains a regional issue rather than solely an Uzbek or Kazakh one. Central Asian countries coordinate part of this work...

Desertification

UN Desertification Forum Highlights Central Asian Land Degradation

Mongolia is hosting a United Nations (UN) conference on combating desertification this month, with delegates from Central Asian countries discussing cooperation on the challenges of climate change, water scarcity, and sustaining vast ecosystems such as the Eurasian steppes. Bakhodur Sheralizoda, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Environmental Protection, was among speakers appealing for more regional and international cooperation in the face of land degradation, desertification, and drought. While the meeting in Ulaanbaatar is aimed at the protection of rangeland and grassland ecosystems, Sheralizoda also noted the importance of preserving mountain ecosystems such as those that cover most of Tajikistan’s territory. He said Tajikistan is one of Central Asia's major sources of water and protecting its glaciers is therefore critical, Khovar, Tajikistan’s state news agency, reported on Monday. His comments highlighted the interconnectedness of the environmental challenges being discussed at the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, which started on August 17 and ends on August 28. The conference is focusing on “the arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, known as the drylands, where some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and peoples can be found,” according to organizers. The goal of the meeting is to promote sustainable rangeland management, climate-resilient land use, and land restoration across those fragile areas. Nearly 77% of Mongolia’s land is already degraded, and limited rainfall and short growing seasons make recovery from degradation difficult, according to the UN. More than 80 million hectares in Central Asia, or an area about four times the size of Kyrgyzstan, are already degraded, the UN says. Along with Tajikistan, the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have been working on ways of mitigating threats to ecosystems, including soil protection and monitoring, drip irrigation, and the planting of seedlings. Late last year, Uzbekistan hosted a major international conference on wildlife trade, held under the UN-linked Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species, as countries and international institutions look for ways to counter global conservation pressures. In a commentary on PBS, Dr. Justine Shanti Alexander, Mongolia director for the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, said the hosting of the UN event in Ulaanbaatar “provides a unique opportunity to showcase to the world how healthy, high integrity rangelands underpin wildlife, pastoral livelihoods, and climate resilience.”

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s North Aral Recovery Anchors Broader Environmental Push

After decades in which the Aral Sea became a global symbol of ecological collapse, Kazakhstan has achieved a measurable recovery in its northern basin. Built over two decades, the turnaround is now being linked to expanded restoration plans and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader Taza Kazakhstan, or “Clean Kazakhstan,” environmental agenda. According to the government, the North Aral’s volume rose from 18.9 billion cubic meters at the end of 2022 to 23 billion by the end of 2025. In July 2026, TCA reported that the Water Resources Ministry had put the volume at approximately 23.5 billion cubic meters. The recovery reflects work centered on the Kokaral Dam, completed in 2005, and management of the Syr Darya. The first phase raised water levels, reduced salinity, and helped restore fishing. Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Ministry and the World Bank have developed plans for a second phase of the restoration program. The proposed project calls for the reconstruction of the Kokaral Dam and aims to increase the sea’s volume to approximately 34 billion cubic meters and expand its surface area to around 3,900 square kilometers. The recovery described here is confined to the North Aral in Kazakhstan. The South Aral remains severely depleted, while further progress in the north depends on Syr Darya flows and cooperation with upstream states. An August 22 government review places the North Aral alongside waste management, reforestation, and environmental education under Taza Kazakhstan. Launched by Tokayev in April 2024 as a nationwide cleanup campaign, the initiative is increasingly being used as a framework for a broader environmental program. Waste Infrastructure Illegal dumping is the clearest area of reported progress. The number of identified dumping sites fell from approximately 8,600 in 2018 to 2,600 in 2026, according to the government. Satellite monitoring is being combined with public reporting through eGov Mobile and TazaQazBot. Public reports have been processed through the two services since 2024. Local authorities have been given responsibility for cleaning public areas, while penalties for illegal disposal have been strengthened. Because the 2018 baseline predates Taza Kazakhstan, the longer-term decline also reflects measures taken before the initiative. The share of municipal waste sorted or processed increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 30.6% in 2025, according to the government. Kazakhstan still faces a serious infrastructure deficit. At the end of 2024, only 20.4% of the country’s municipal waste landfills had the required documentation, while major sites in Astana and Zhezkazgan were at or beyond capacity. A 2023 plan called for 100 new landfills, but a December 2025 government update said only eight had been commissioned. The August 2026 review provided no newer landfill total, but said upgrades were planned for existing sites and additional waste sector projects were moving into operation. Large waste-processing and utilization facilities are also under development in Astana, Almaty, and the Zhambyl region. TCA has previously reported that headline processing rates do not show how much waste becomes reusable material. Only about 1.1% of municipal waste generated in 2024 was converted into secondary raw materials. The...

Environmental Safeguards

Pasture Gives Way to Solar Power in Uzbekistan as Audit Remains Unpublished

Each spring, nine households grazed livestock on a stretch of desert pasture in Uzbekistan’s Bukhara Region. The land is now the site of the Nur Bukhara solar and battery plant, but an audit intended to show whether promised livelihood protections worked remains unpublished. Seven of the households came from the nearby settlement of Kirilishon and used the state-owned pasture without permits or formal agreements. A herder and his partner, identified publicly only as H1 and H2, grazed animals there through a short-term agreement with Alat Qorakolchilik LLC, a local livestock company holding a sublease on the land. The nine households included 43 people. The plant began operating in September 2025 and was inaugurated that December. The Uzbek government awarded the project to Masdar, an Abu Dhabi-based renewable energy developer that built the facility and now operates it. Nur Bukhara combines a 250-megawatt solar plant with a 63-megawatt battery system capable of storing 126 megawatt-hours of electricity. Masdar says it can supply more than 55,000 homes, while the World Bank described it as Central Asia’s first utility-scale renewable energy project to combine solar generation with battery storage. During a consultation on May 7, 2023, Kirilishon residents asked for the solar plant to be moved. If construction went ahead, they wanted replacement grazing land near the village and priority consideration for project jobs. H1 and H2 had a documented right to use the pasture, while the seven Kirilishon households did not. However, the safeguards required by Nur Bukhara’s international lenders covered both formal and informal users whose livelihoods would be disrupted by the project. Masdar commissioned a livelihood restoration plan setting out the assistance the households were to receive before construction cut off access to the site. It identified about 260 hectares of replacement pasture, equivalent to one square mile, for H1 and H2. Alat Qorakolchilik also identified approximately 1,000 hectares, or 3.9 square miles, of additional land available to herders. The seven informal households were to be allowed to use replacement pasture without obtaining formal agreements. The larger tract was not described as land reserved exclusively for those households. The published map did not record which final area each household would receive. The livelihood measures also included priority access to project employment and additional support for households considered vulnerable. In an official statement to The Times of Central Asia, a Masdar spokesperson said replacement grazing arrangements were provided before access to the project site was restricted, “maintaining equivalent grazing conditions,” and that “several members of affected households obtained project-related employment opportunities.” The statement cited monitoring by international lenders and an independent third-party review, with the completion audit finalized in September 2025. It reported no related complaints from affected households through the project’s grievance mechanism. The completion audit was not included with Masdar’s response. As of August 20, 2026, it was also absent from Masdar’s Nur Bukhara page and the International Finance Corporation’s project disclosure. Simonyan Consulting, which says it was engaged by the project company to conduct the audit, lists the assignment as “2025–ongoing.” Without the audit,...

Water Security

Kazakhstan Seeds Clouds as Kyrgyzstan Questions Regional Impact

A small aircraft climbed out of Turkestan airport on July 10 with hygroscopic salt flares fixed beneath its wings. Operated by the United Arab Emirates’ National Center of Meteorology, it was searching for a cloud suitable for seeding. Pilot Ahmed Aljaberi described the aircraft as “specifically equipped with a cloud-seeding flare system.” But no suitable cloud appeared during the mission. Cloud seeding can try to draw more rain from an existing cloud, but it cannot make one from clear air. Kazakhstan launched the project in Turkestan on May 16, targeting more than 911,000 hectares of arable land in the country’s leading cotton-belt. The government puts the potential economic benefit at up to 35 billion tenge, roughly $75 million a year. The partnership gives Kazakhstan access to decades of Emirati experience in weather modification. The UAE program dates to the late 1980s, and Emirati specialists are training Kazakh meteorologists, pilots, engineers, and other staff. Kazakhstan’s government describes the Turkestan operation as the first project of its scale in the region, though weather modification in Central Asia has a longer history. Kochkunbek Bakirov, a geographer at Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, has described Soviet-era research in the Karshi steppe, the Naryn basin, and over Issyk-Kul. Kazakhstan also trialed a different approach in Mangystau in 2021, using an ionization-based system promoted as a way to increase rainfall. Its developer claimed the equipment had begun to influence local moisture. The Mangystau system used ionization; the current program uses aircraft and hygroscopic salt flares. Before operations began, Kazhydromet analyzed data from 39 meteorological stations covering 2020 through 2024, selecting the Turkestan Region after studying atmospheric conditions and terrain. Flights only proceed when naturally formed cumulonimbus clouds with sufficient vertical development are present, with Kazhydromet monitoring satellite imagery, synoptic data, and cloud development before operations. The aircraft releases salt-based particles into suitable clouds. Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry lists sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and magnesium compounds among the reagents. In hygroscopic seeding, the particles encourage liquid droplets to collide and coalesce, which can improve precipitation efficiency in a suitable cloud. The cloud and its moisture must already exist. By July 13, crews had completed eleven operational flights, mainly over the Otyrar and Sozak districts. Officials were still analyzing the results of each operation; the number of flights does not show how much extra rain the project has produced. Kazakhstan’s launch materials cite a possible 10 to 20% increase in precipitation under favorable conditions. Results elsewhere vary widely. A 2024 review by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found estimates of 0 to 20% additional precipitation in the studies it examined. The GAO also found that effectiveness remains difficult to evaluate and that suitable clouds must be present. The evidence is much stronger for some cloud-seeding methods than for others. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the strongest recent causal evidence comes from wintertime glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds, while Kazakhstan is using hygroscopic salts in convective clouds. Their large natural variability creates a weak signal-to-noise problem, making the added...

Environmental Assessment

Uzbekistan’s $5 Billion Sea Breeze Resort Awaits Environmental Review

Uzbekistan’s environmental authorities have still not received the full set of documents for Sea Breeze Uzbekistan, a controversial $5 billion resort planned on the shore of the Charvak Reservoir. Azerbaijani businessman Emin Agalarov presented the project to Uzbek authorities in late 2024, and Agalarov Development is participating in the venture. Although the government approved the investment project in August 2025 and public hearings were held in January, key technical documents required for the second stage of the state environmental review remain outstanding. Sea Breeze is planned to cover 577 hectares on the eastern shore of Charvak, around 80 kilometers from Tashkent. The year-round resort is expected to include hotels and residential developments, along with dining and entertainment facilities. Gayrat Mukhamedov, director of the State Center for Environmental Expertise, told Gazeta.uz that “only the first stage of the procedure,” involving the selection and allocation of land, has been completed. The center has not yet received the documents needed to assess the environmental impact of the complex itself. The location has been one of the main sources of controversy surrounding the project. Charvak lies in the foothills of the Western Tien Shan and remains one of Uzbekistan’s most popular recreational areas. After the Sea Breeze plans were published, environmentalists and civic activists called for more information about the potential impact of development on the reservoir. In the summer of 2025, the #SaveChorvoq campaign emerged on social media. On August 1, 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the investment project. It is being implemented by Sea Breeze Uzbekistan LLC, a joint venture established with the participation of Agalarov Development. One of the conditions is protecting Charvak from pollution. Wastewater must be taken outside the coastal zone and sent to a centralized treatment system, with no discharge into the reservoir. The requirement applies both during construction and during the subsequent operation of the resort. Mukhamedov said the environmental review center is still waiting for final technical data on the treatment system, including its capacity, as well as definitive figures for the resort’s accommodation capacity and the number of cottages, homes, and other facilities. Public hearings on the environmental impact assessment for Sea Breeze were held in Bostanlyk District on January 23, 2026. The issues scheduled for discussion included the project’s impact on water, air, and soil, waste management, preservation of green areas, and environmental monitoring. At the hearings, project representatives discussed the future sewage system, wastewater treatment, and measures to preserve biodiversity. The plan envisaged wastewater being collected through a centralized sewage system for treatment away from the reservoir. The public hearings, however, do not replace the second stage of the state environmental review. More than six months later, the technical documents for that stage have still not been submitted. Mukhamedov said the next phase will depend in part on seasonal studies by Uzbekistan’s Institute of Botany and Institute of Zoology into the possible effects on local flora and fauna. The work is expected to span autumn, winter, and spring, while the environmental review...