Kyrgyzstan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team looks at Kyrgyzstan unveiling plans that would require religious bloggers to be licensed and subjected to greater state oversight; further changes to the country's regional security leadership; one of the Central Asian states launching its first satellite into space; and a new round of CSTO military exercises in Russia that could have some troubling implications for the region. We'll also be looking at Turkmenistan marking 35 years of independence with a massive military parade showcasing a range of new weapons systems, as well as a week of blackouts hitting one of Central Asia's key cities. From there, we turn to our main story this week, where we'll be joined by two experts from the World Bank to discuss a major new report examining some of the biggest economic bottlenecks facing Central Asia, where those constraints are emerging, and what governments across the region will need to do to overcome them. Special guests: - Muneeza Alam (World Bank) - Luis Blancas (World Bank)

CICA Summit

Central Asian Leaders Link Trade and Security at Baku Summit

Central Asian leaders called for better transport links and joint action on water shortages at the Baku summit in Azerbaijan on October 15, arguing that practical cooperation could prevent political disputes from turning into conflict. The seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) adopted the Baku Declaration, admitted Laos as a new member, and approved Azerbaijan’s continued chairmanship through 2028. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for an “infrastructure of trust” based on transparent government actions and the fulfillment of commitments. His proposed concept would connect conflict prevention with joint transport and energy projects, trade, and digital links. He pointed to the damage that conflicts in Asia were causing to economies and security far from the fighting. Mirziyoyev warned, “When dialogue weakens, the risk of misguided decisions increases.” He urged governments to prevent political disagreements from becoming armed confrontations. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed a preventive diplomacy mechanism within CICA, enabling members to contribute before a crisis develops. He told the summit, “Peace is best built before crises emerge.” According to the Azerbaijani state news agency AZERTAC’s account, the Baku Declaration includes provisions on economic ties, transport and digital connections, and energy security. It addresses the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence. Trade Routes Across the Caspian Sea The meeting came one week after the Avaza summit, where Central Asian presidents and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev discussed east-west and north-south trade routes. In Baku, those regional priorities entered a wider Asian forum, alongside calls to make commercial relationships more dependable. Tokayev proposed a CICA Transport Connectivity Strategy covering major routes, including the Middle Corridor across the Caspian Sea. He linked Azerbaijan’s rapprochement with Armenia to new opportunities for east-west transport. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon called in his summit address for simpler customs and logistics procedures and better connections between different forms of transport. He presented economic cooperation as a foundation for lasting peace, alongside continued action against terrorism and its financing. On the summit’s sidelines, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan discussed transport and transit cooperation. Their talks covered improvements to logistics infrastructure and international routes connecting Central Asia with the Caucasus, according to Turkmenistan’s government account. During a separate bilateral meeting, Tokayev and Aliyev inaugurated the Trans-Caspian Fiber-Optic Cable Line remotely, opening an approximately 380-kilometer connection between Aktau in Kazakhstan and Sumgayit in Azerbaijan. The project forms part of the Digital Silk Way initiative, with onward connections intended to carry data between China, Central Asia, and Europe. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development gives the cable a design capacity exceeding 400 terabits per second. The ministry says the additional route will provide backup for existing international connections and allow operators to distribute traffic across more channels. It expects the connection to attract investment in data centers and cloud services as Kazakhstan seeks a larger role in carrying international data. Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov similarly called for fiber-optic routes linking Asia and Europe. He invited technology companies to build data centers...

Drug Smuggling

Russian Rapper Navai Detained at Kazakhstan Border on Suspicion of Drug Smuggling

Russian rapper Navai Bakirov, known professionally as Navai, was detained on October 13 while entering Kazakhstan from Kyrgyzstan. A Kazakh court has since ordered him held in custody as police investigate suspected drug smuggling and unlawful possession of narcotics. Police in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region said officers and border guards discovered and seized a narcotic substance during a search of his vehicle at the Korday checkpoint. They have not identified the substance or disclosed the quantity seized. Navai had performed in Bishkek the previous day as part of a Central Asian concert tour. His concert scheduled for October 14 in Astana was canceled, with organizers citing technical reasons. Kyrgyzstan’s State Border Service has launched an internal investigation into how the musician passed through its Ak-Zhol checkpoint. The service said it would take action if any violations by border officials were uncovered. Navai is a singer of Azerbaijani descent who rose to prominence as part of the duo HammAli & Navai. The duo’s popular songs include “Pustite Menya na Tantspol” (“Let Me on the Dance Floor”), “Pryatki” (“Hide and Seek”), and “Devochka-Voyna” (“Warrior Girl”).

Labor Migration

Kyrgyzstan Expands Foreign Worker Quotas While Citizens Work Abroad

Kyrgyzstan plans to allow up to 120,000 foreign nationals to work in the country in 2027, even as more than 700,000 of its own citizens have worked abroad this year. Although official estimates are lower than four years ago, the country remains heavily dependent on money sent home by migrant workers, particularly those in Russia. According to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, Kyrgyzstan received approximately $3.5 billion in transfers from abroad in 2025, more than 90% of which came from Russia. The Ministry of Labor, Social Security, and Migration reported that 736,600 citizens had worked abroad so far in 2026, compared with 798,400 in 2025. The largest group, more than 472,000 people, was reported to be in Russia in March. Approximately 70,000 were working in Kazakhstan, 60,000 in the United States, 35,000 in Turkey, and 20,000 in Germany. In 2022, the authorities estimated that 1.118 million Kyrgyz citizens were working abroad, including more than one million in Russia. However, the figures do not establish exactly how many people have returned home and how many have moved to other countries for work. Russia has tightened its migration requirements and stepped up enforcement of residency regulations. In a report covering the second half of 2025, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) found that 94% of emigrants surveyed had left to find employment or better economic opportunities. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev discussed these changes in labor migration during a parliamentary committee meeting on October 13. According to Kulubaev, more Kyrgyz citizens are choosing Turkey and the U.S. for employment, while demand for workers from Kyrgyzstan remains strong in South Korea and Japan. He said representatives from some European countries had offered to accept workers from Kyrgyzstan on the condition that the country accommodate migrants from Afghanistan and African nations. Kulubaev did not disclose which countries had made the offer, saying only that Bishkek rejected the proposal. There has been no public confirmation of the arrangement from the European participants in the negotiations. Within Kyrgyzstan, the unemployment rate fell from 5.8% in 2020 to 3.2% in 2025. The decline coincided with growth in construction, trade, and services, although employment figures alone do not show how much wages have increased or how many former migrants have found jobs at home. During a recent visit to the Batken region, President Sadyr Japarov again urged citizens working abroad to return home. The initial quota for foreign nationals arriving to work in Kyrgyzstan for 2025 was 25,000 people. The limit was raised to 100,000 for 2026. Expanding the quota allows businesses to recruit more employees from abroad, particularly for construction, manufacturing, and other industries where employers face staffing needs. According to the Ministry of Labor, by December 2025, approximately 18,900 Chinese, 11,700 Bangladeshis, and 8,300 Pakistanis had received work permits. An IOM study conducted in the first half of 2025 found a substantial presence of workers from Uzbekistan, approximately 10,800 people. The largest numbers of foreign workers covered by the survey were in the Jalal-Abad region,...

Growth Forecasts

Central Asia Economic Growth Expected to Slow in 2027

After several years of rapid expansion, Central Asian economies are expected to lose some momentum. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts that regional economic growth will slow from 5.8% in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027. However, growth in manufacturing and construction will not necessarily translate into comparable increases in household incomes. The forecast appears in the EBRD’s September report. The bank’s Central Asia figures also include Mongolia, so the regional growth rate should not be interpreted as an average for the five Central Asian countries alone. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has published its own projections for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. They differ somewhat from the EBRD’s forecasts but also anticipate continued economic growth. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Maintain Strong Growth The EBRD expects the economies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to grow by 7% in 2027, the highest rates projected for the five countries in the region. Kyrgyzstan has experienced a construction boom in recent years, driven by investment in roads, housing, and energy infrastructure. The service sector is also expanding. The country’s economy grew by 11.9% in the first half of 2026. However, rapid growth has been accompanied by rising food and fuel prices. The country's performance is closely tied to economic conditions in Russia, where a significant number of Kyrgyz migrant workers are employed and from which Kyrgyzstan imports the vast majority of its fuel. Changes in the Russian labor market can affect remittances and household spending in Kyrgyzstan. In Tajikistan, growth is supported by investment and exports, particularly precious metals and mineral resources. The economy expanded by 8.2% in the first half of 2026. Tajikistan also relies heavily on imported goods and equipment, with spending on imports exceeding export earnings. Remittances from migrant workers in Russia are an even more important source of household income for Tajiks than for their Kyrgyz neighbors, while rising fuel costs are putting additional pressure on family budgets. Kazakhstan Remains Dependent on Oil Exports For Central Asia’s largest economy, the EBRD forecasts growth of 4.5% in 2027, while the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development expects 5%. In 2026, Kazakhstan’s economy has been constrained by disruptions to oil production and exports. Problems arose at the Tengiz oil field and along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export route, through which a significant share of Kazakhstan’s oil reaches global markets via Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s factories increased production. But even growth in industries outside the oil sector has yet to eliminate the country’s dependence on commodity exports. For international buyers, the reliability of supply routes is also important. Disruptions to the CPC can restrict Kazakhstan’s oil exports regardless of demand or global prices. The Times of Central Asia recently examined the challenges facing Kazakhstan’s oil logistics. Inflation is another concern. According to the EFSD, prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise by approximately 9.5% by the end of 2026. This means economic expansion will not necessarily be accompanied by a noticeable improvement in household purchasing power. Uzbekistan’s Growth Driven by...

Railway Economics

Opinion: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway: Turning Transit Into Local Benefits

At the eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan on October 8, 2026, Azerbaijan joined the forum as a full member after three years of participation as a guest of honor. President Ilham Aliyev stated that “Transport is one of the primary areas of cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan”. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for comprehensive infrastructure along the routes, with logistics hubs and service centers supporting production facilities and industrial zones to generate economic activity around the transport corridors. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is among Uzbekistan’s transport priorities and is important for Kyrgyzstan, making this “integrated transport corridor development” approach particularly relevant. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (also known as the Kashgar-Torugart-Makmal-Jalal-Abad-Andijan railway) has been underway since December 2024. Public discussion of the project focuses mainly on shorter routes linking China and Central Asia with the Middle East and Europe, and on the line’s design carrying capacity. However, growth in transit traffic does not in itself guarantee economic benefits for the Naryn and Jalal-Abad regions of Kyrgyzstan or the Andijan region of Uzbekistan. Local economic impact depends on whether freight services and tariff policy allow small shippers to use the railway’s stations. Border delays can limit those benefits, as can a lack of storage and processing infrastructure nearby. What the Project Involves The intergovernmental agreement on the implementation of the project was signed by China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on June 6, 2024. The joint project company was registered in July 2024, the investment agreement was signed on December 20, 2024, and construction officially began on December 27, 2024, in Jalal-Abad. According to the Ministry of Transport of Uzbekistan, the total length of the line is 532.53 km; 20 stations are planned, including two border stations, one transshipment station, four intermediate stations, and 13 passing loops. The Makmal transshipment station will be the transfer point between China’s 1,435 mm track gauge and the 1,520 mm gauge used in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From Torugart to Makmal, the 165.5 km section will use the Chinese gauge. The 146.26 km section from Makmal to Jalal-Abad will use the wider gauge, connecting to the existing network toward Andijan. At Makmal, containers will be sorted and transferred between trains. Wagons can instead have their wheel assemblies changed to run on the other gauge. Freight trains will be assembled or split up at the station, which will also have facilities to weigh wagons and cargo. The parties estimate the cost of the project at USD 4.7 billion. Under the loan agreement signed on December 16, 2025, about USD 2.3 billion is provided by a syndicate of Chinese banks as a 35-year loan to the project company. Another USD 2.3 billion or so forms the project company’s charter capital. China holds 51% of the shares, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. As of October 2026, construction is underway along the entire length of the route. In September 2026, the project company reported the completion of the first tunnel...