Our People > Aliya Haidar

Aliya Haidar

Journalist

Aliya Haidar is a Kazakhstani journalist. She started her career in 1998, and has worked in the country's leading regional and national publications ever since.

Articles

Extreme Heat

Extreme Heat Buckles Roads and Strains Power Grids Across Central Asia

Extreme heat across Central Asia in mid-July has buckled concrete highways, pushed electricity demand to record levels, and increased pressure on power grids and ambulance services. Kazakhstan reported road deformation and repeated failures in Almaty, Uzbekistan set consumption and generation records, Kyrgyzstan introduced temporary cuts to protect equipment, and residents in Tajikistan reported local disruptions. Temperatures above 40°C are common in parts of the region, but prolonged heat can strain several systems at once. Demand for cooling rises, road surfaces reach damaging temperatures, and health risks increase. The World Bank says much of Central Asia’s infrastructure was built in the mid-20th century and is overdue for renewal. Kazakhstan’s Roads and Power Networks Struggle Almaty recorded daily temperature highs on three consecutive days. The temperature reached 38°C on July 16, 39.2°C on July 17, and 40°C on July 18. The city’s July record remains 43.4°C, set in 1983. The heat also damaged Kazakhstan’s road network. KazAvtoZhol found temperature-related deformation on six highway sections in the Zhambyl, Pavlodar, and Turkestan regions. The national road operator said concrete surfaces can reach 60 to 70°C, and sometimes higher, during extreme weather. The resulting internal stress can deform concrete slabs. More than 50 workers repaired the affected sections, and traffic continued without restrictions. Road crews were monitoring more than 1,600 kilometers of concrete highway. Almaty’s ambulance service received more than 33,600 calls during the first two weeks of July. Medical officials said many involved sudden spikes in blood pressure and cardiovascular conditions, including coronary heart disease and acute heart attacks. Stroke patients were taken to hospital. Officials advised residents to avoid direct sunlight between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., drink sufficient fluids, and seek medical help if their condition deteriorated. The city’s electricity network has faced record electricity demand between July 17 and 20 as residents increased their use of air conditioners and other appliances. The Alatau Zharyk Company said technical failures occurred in several districts, sometimes followed by faults on neighboring sections of the network. Thirty-five repair crews were deployed around the clock. The pressure extended beyond Almaty. Kazakhstan consumed 338.66 million kilowatt-hours of electricity on July 14, while domestic generation totaled 314.27 million kilowatt-hours, according to KOREM electricity data. Consumption also exceeded generation on each of the previous three days. Kazakhstan has historically covered such shortfalls through electricity imports, principally from Russia. Record Electricity Demand in Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy warned on July 13 that daily electricity consumption could reach a summer record of 280 million kilowatt-hours, with peak demand rising to between 13 and 13.3 gigawatts. Demand subsequently exceeded that forecast. On July 18, consumption reached 294.4 million kilowatt-hours, 8% above the previous summer record. Peak evening demand rose to 13.7 gigawatts. Power plants produced a record 297.1 million kilowatt-hours on the same day. Despite the increase in production, technical faults caused temporary outages in several districts of Tashkent. At different times, the disruptions affected between several hundred and 2,700 consumers, according to the Ministry of Energy. Supplies were later restored....

1 day ago

Kashagan

Kashagan Operator Faces July 20 Deadline to Pay $4.9 Billion Environmental Fine

Kazakhstan says it will begin compulsory collection proceedings against the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), operator of the giant Kashagan oil field, if it does not pay a 2.3 trillion tenge ($4.9 billion) environmental fine by July 20. The deadline follows a domestic court ruling that has entered into legal force, even as the project’s foreign shareholders pursue international arbitration over the penalty. Deputy Minister of Justice Daniyel Vaisov announced the deadline on July 14. “Foreign companies currently have an obligation to pay 2.3 trillion tenge. If they fail to pay the fine by July 20, the Republic of Kazakhstan will proceed in accordance with the law, including enforcement proceedings and compulsory collection measures,” Vaisov said. However, in a statement to The Times of Central Asia, NCOC said a tribunal in parallel UNCITRAL arbitration proceedings had issued a restraining order prohibiting Kazakhstan from taking any measures to enforce the fine while the arbitration is pending. The company said the UNCITRAL proceedings had been initiated by Kazakhstan itself. NCOC and the contracting companies said they reject both the fine and the allegations underlying it and are contesting them through the UNCITRAL proceedings as well as the ICSID arbitration. They called on Kazakhstan to comply with the restraining order. The dispute stems from a 2022 inspection of Kashagan’s onshore processing facilities in the Atyrau Region. Environmental authorities said the operator had exceeded its permitted sulfur-storage limits, and the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources imposed the 2.3 trillion-tenge penalty in 2023. NCOC said it had obtained and maintained all required permits and had always conducted its sulfur management in full compliance with the law. The case has passed through several rounds of domestic litigation. On August 1, 2025, the Administrative Chamber of Astana City Court annulled the original penalty order because of procedural violations, without ruling on the substance of the environmental allegations. The ministry subsequently corrected the procedural defects and reissued the penalty later that month. An Astana court left the reissued fine in force on April 8, 2026. Vaisov said on July 14 that the ruling had entered into legal force. NCOC brings together Kazakhstan’s state-owned KazMunayGas and six foreign partners: Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, ExxonMobil, CNPC, and Inpex. NCOC and the project’s six foreign shareholders have initiated treaty arbitration through the Washington-based International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), arguing that Kazakhstan’s conduct breaches protections owed to investors. Vaisov said the parties were finalizing the composition of the ICSID tribunal, which is expected to be completed by the end of July. “We believe the Republic’s actions regarding the alleged sulfur-storage permit violations are inconsistent with its obligations under international investment treaties, including its obligation to provide fair and equitable treatment to investors,” NCOC said. The Kazakh authorities maintain that the sulfur was stored in breach of environmental rules. The mechanics of compulsory collection may prove difficult. Nurlan Zhumagulov, executive director of the Energy Monitor Foundation, said that NCOC acts as the project’s operator while each shareholder markets its own...

1 week ago

Transport Infrastructure

Can Uzbekistan Challenge Kazakhstan as Leading Central Asia Logistics Hub?

Recent developments suggest that Uzbekistan is seeking to strengthen its position in regional logistics, potentially challenging Kazakhstan’s role as Central Asia’s principal transit hub. As geopolitical tensions increase, alternative transport routes are becoming increasingly important, and Central Asia stands out as a relatively stable region. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are investing heavily in expanding their transport infrastructure. The key question, however, is how practical and commercially viable these new projects will prove to be. Which country will ultimately be able to offer faster, cheaper, and more reliable transport corridors? Uzbekistan’s Plans In early July, Uzbekistan presented proposals for expanding its transport and logistics infrastructure, as officials sought to make greater use of what they described as the country’s underdeveloped transit potential. Officials noted that Uzbekistan occupies a strategic position connecting East and West. The country hosts approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) of international transit corridors and has a railway network stretching 4,700 kilometers (2,920 miles). Modern logistics centers and “dry ports” are being developed in Tashkent, Navoi, and Namangan. Navoi Airport already serves as an important cargo hub on Eurasian air routes. Authorities believe that construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, together with the proposed Trans-Afghan Railway, could further strengthen Uzbekistan’s position within both regional and international transport networks. Project planners argue that, once completed, these corridors will make Uzbekistan a key segment of the shortest overland route between the Pacific Ocean and Europe. They estimate that cargo transit times could be reduced to eight days, roughly three times faster than many traditional routes. That said, the statement provided no methodology or precise endpoints for the estimate; existing China-Europe rail services generally take considerably longer. Officials also say access to Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar would provide Uzbekistan with a gateway to the Indian Ocean and a shorter route to South Asian markets with a combined population of around 2 billion people. Gwadar is not yet connected to Pakistan’s main railway network, however, meaning that substantial additional infrastructure would be required. Significant Shortcomings Uzbek officials estimate that annual trade between China and Europe amounts to approximately $800 billion, while cargo volumes total between 120 million and 150 million metric tons each year. The government estimates that attracting an additional 15-20 million tons of international transit cargo annually could generate $400-600 million in revenue, draw around $3 billion into logistics facilities, and create approximately 50,000 permanent jobs. The presidential administration also said this could add 1.5-2 percentage points to annual economic growth, given that Uzbekistan currently captures only 1-2% of China-Europe freight – it did not explain how either figure was calculated. Although transit cargo volumes reached 15.3 million tons in 2025, an increase of 54% compared with 2021, officials believe the country’s existing infrastructure could support significantly higher volumes. At present, however, many border crossings lack sufficient capacity to process international freight efficiently. Uzbekistan currently operates 27 logistics centers that meet international standards, with a combined handling capacity of 27.2 million tons. Yet only one of them qualifies as a...

2 weeks ago

Fuel Shortage

Uzbekistan Faces Fuel Shortage Pressure as Imports Rise

Central Asia is facing a new wave of tension in the market for fuels and lubricants. Shortages of gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel have affected the entire region to varying degrees, but the situation is developing differently in each country. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the problem is one of direct import dependence. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have their own production and refining capacity, are in a more stable position. However, rapidly growing domestic demand is increasingly tying them to imports. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan is tightening domestic controls, building up reserves ahead of refinery maintenance, and considering fuel imports from China to protect its own market. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, has appealed to Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan for help in securing fuel supplies, as shortages inside Russia are placing additional pressure on the local fuel market. Uzbekistan’s refining system includes the Bukhara and Fergana oil refineries, the Altyaryk unit of the Fergana refinery, and the modern Uzbekistan GTL complex, which produces synthetic liquid fuels from natural gas. The system produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, oils, naphtha, bitumen, and liquefied gas. From January through May 2026, Uzbekistan imported 642 million liters of gasoline worth $373 million. Import volume was 84% higher than in the same period last year, while import value rose by 85%. Imports now cover nearly half of domestic demand. Domestic gasoline production during the five-month period totaled 502,200 tons, equivalent to about 670 million to 678 million liters. Output has declined in recent years, falling from 1.33 million tons in 2023 to 1.2 million tons in 2025. The pressure has also reached the domestic fuel exchange. In late June, AI-92 gasoline prices in Uzbekistan hit a record high, with one ton selling for 13.919 million soums. Since the start of June, prices have risen by about 11% to 12%. The steepest increase came in the first 10 days of the month. Supply on the exchange then fell sharply, from up to 7,700 tons in the first half of June to 1,600 to 2,400 tons in the second half. The price rise has already begun to affect retail fuel costs, especially in Tashkent. One reason for the imbalance was Uzbekistan’s phased reduction of AI-80 gasoline under an environmental reform. In May, Odil Temirov, deputy chairman of Uzbekneftegaz’s board for refining, said the Bukhara Oil Refinery would begin switching from AI-80 to AI-91 and AI-92 in November and December, with a full phase-out of AI-80 from the start of 2025. He said AI-80 accounted for 85% of output at the refinery, while AI-92 made up the remaining 15%, and that this ratio would begin to change in November. Demand quickly shifted toward AI-92 and AI-95, but domestic production has not yet adapted to the new consumption pattern. Additional pressure came from events in Russia, which remains one of the key suppliers of gasoline, refinery feedstock, and aviation fuel. Reduced output at Russian refineries, caused by repairs and the aftermath of attacks on energy...

2 weeks ago

Labor Migration

Central Asian Labor Migration Shifts as Russia Loses Some of Its Pull

Russia remains the main destination for many Central Asian labor migrants, but its dominance is weakening. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, tougher Russian migration rules, and rising hostility toward migrants have pushed workers from the region to look elsewhere. South Korea, the Gulf states, the United Kingdom, Poland, Belarus, and other destinations are increasingly competing with Russia for Central Asian labor. The result is not a collapse of the old migration model, but a visible diversification of flows as the geography of labor migration from the region expands. Kazakhstan: From Destination Country to Source of Skilled Migrants Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, most labor migrants from Central Asia have traveled to Russia in search of work. A shortage of local labor, relatively decent wages, familiarity with the language, and a similar mentality have driven many to seek jobs in major Russian cities. Kazakhstan is an exception. It has not seen mass migration of its own citizens into lower-skilled jobs in Russia such as janitorial or construction work. Kazakhstan’s own economy offers such jobs, unemployment has remained low, and employers continue to report shortages in both manual work and skilled professions. The Bureau of National Statistics put unemployment at 4.5% in the first quarter of 2026. For this reason, Kazakhstan has also long been a destination for migrants from neighboring states, even if Russia has traditionally attracted larger flows. Kazakh citizens working abroad generally aim for higher-paying jobs in sectors requiring qualifications. The government was already tracking this in 2024, when the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection reported, using Foreign Ministry data, that 137,000 Kazakh citizens were abroad for employment purposes. The largest numbers were in Russia, South Korea, Turkey, and the UAE, with smaller numbers in Europe, North America, and elsewhere. A later Ministry report showed the same pattern, with Russia still dominant but alternatives clearly visible: of 126,000 Kazakh citizens employed abroad, 102,000 were in Russia, 15,000 in South Korea, and around 2,000 in the United Kingdom and European Union member states. Those leaving include economists, lawyers, technical specialists, teachers, and medical workers. Although outward labor migration remains limited compared with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, or Tajikistan, it is adding to official concerns about the loss of qualified specialists. Officials believe Kazakhstan’s labor market is vulnerable to external competition, and a large share of those leaving have higher or technical vocational education. Salary gaps and differences in living standards make these destinations attractive. Qatar has recently joined the list of preferred destinations for labor migration. This has been made possible in large part by intergovernmental agreements signed between Qatar and Kazakhstan. Qatar is now actively recruiting Kazakh specialists, particularly in the oil and gas sector. According to Arman Shokparov, co-founder of People Consulting, around 600-700 Kazakh white-collar professionals currently work in Qatar. Nearly half work in the oil and gas sector, mainly in engineering and production roles. This trend does not mean Kazakhstan is only losing workers. It continues to attract immigrants and...

3 weeks ago

Nuclear power

Central Asia’s Nuclear Push: Uzbekistan Starts Construction as Kazakhstan Plans at Least Three Plants

Uzbekistan has poured concrete for its first nuclear power plant, while Kazakhstan has signed a $16.5 billion agreement for a two-reactor facility near Lake Balkhash and approved a site for a second plant. Kazakhstan's long-term strategy calls for at least three nuclear power plants by 2050, with a fourth possible. Both governments are presenting nuclear power as a way to meet rapidly growing electricity demand and strengthen energy security. Yet the projects are advancing at different speeds and are reviving questions over water use, cross-border safety, financing, and long-term reliance on Russian technology and credit. Uzbekistan Moves Into Construction On June 4, 2026, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin launched construction by video link. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also took part. The first nuclear-grade concrete was poured overnight from June 4 to June 5 for the foundation slab of the first RITM-200N small modular reactor unit in the Forish district of the Jizzakh region. Uzatom subsequently classified the site as a nuclear power plant under construction. The facility is one plant with four planned reactor units: two large VVER-1000 units and two smaller RITM-200N units, each rated at 55 MW. Together, they would provide more than 2.1 GW of installed capacity. The present configuration is the latest version of a project that began with a 2017 peaceful-use agreement and a 2018 plan for two large reactors. In 2024, the focus shifted to six small reactors, before the design changed again in 2025 to the mixed large-and-small format now under construction. Uzbek and Russian projections put annual generation at about 17 billion kWh, or roughly 15% of future national demand. The current schedule envisages the first small unit reaching criticality in late 2029, with the large reactors expected to be commissioned in 2033 and 2035, although Uzatom has said final dates depend on outstanding contract arrangements. The project's stated base price is $9.5 billion, and Tashkent is seeking loans for most of the cost. Those financing terms, along with the final allocation of construction and operating risk, remain central to the project's viability. Water and Cross-Border Concerns The plant will stand near Lake Tuzkon in the Aydar-Arnasay lake system, about 40 kilometers from Kazakhstan's border. That proximity has made what is formally an Uzbek project a regional issue. Residents and environmental advocates in southern Kazakhstan have raised concerns about accident preparedness, radioactive waste, and possible pressure on already stressed water systems. Aiman Tleulesova, national coordinator of the Central Asian Regional Water Network, has argued that reactor cooling could require greater discharges into Lake Tuzkon and additional withdrawals linked to the Syr Darya system. In her assessment, that could intensify competition for irrigation water in Kazakhstan's Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions. These are concerns raised by specialists and campaigners, rather than established measurements of the completed plant's impact, but they require a quantified response because water scarcity is already a recurring regional problem. Uzbekistan held public hearings on the environmental impact assessment in...

4 weeks ago

Bloggers

Kyrgyzstan Proposes Blogger Tax Breaks as Kazakhstan Tightens Scrutiny

Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are taking sharply different approaches to the growing influence of bloggers. In Bishkek, President Sadyr Japarov has signed a decree calling for tax incentives for the IT sector, startups and creative industries, including bloggers, a move that has sparked criticism even from content creators themselves. In Astana, meanwhile, authorities are intensifying scrutiny of influencers’ income and using criminal law in high-profile cases involving online figures. Kazakh tax authorities have continued scrutinizing the earnings of popular bloggers, alongside high-profile enforcement cases. In addition, journalists and other online voices in Kazakhstan have faced prosecution under Article 274 of the Criminal Code, which concerns the dissemination of knowingly false information and carries the possibility of a prison sentence. Japarov’s Tax Initiative Sparks Debate Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov’s initiative to introduce tax breaks for the IT sector, startups, and representatives of the creative industries has sparked broad public debate. The decree, signed on June 12 and titled “On Measures to Improve the Tax System and Tax Administration,” calls for broad changes to tax legislation, including five-year tax holidays for several categories of business. Under the decree, companies and entrepreneurs working in software development, information systems, and artificial intelligence may be exempt from number of taxes for five years. The proposed benefits would also extend to startups, outsourcing companies, producers of film, video and television content, bloggers, remote employees of foreign companies, and other creative-industry workers. Under the same preferential regime, authorities also plan to set income tax at 5% and social security contributions at 12% of the average monthly wage for these categories. Kyrgyzstan’s State Tax Service says the new measure will help position the country as a regional center for IT and creative industries, including artificial intelligence. The agency expects the tax incentives to attract investment, stimulate the creation of new startups and increase exports of digital services. Supporters of the initiative argue that reducing the tax burden could provide an important boost for young entrepreneurs and technology companies, allowing them to direct more resources toward product development, the introduction of new technologies, and improved competitiveness. Authorities also hope the measure will help retain young specialists in the country and make Kyrgyzstan more attractive to international companies. At the same time, the proposal has drawn criticism, particularly over the inclusion of bloggers among those eligible for tax benefits. Social media users have questioned why the state is granting tax breaks to content creators while doctors, teachers, and other socially important professions continue to pay taxes in full. Kyrgyz blogger and entrepreneur Ilim Karypbekov has publicly opposed exempting bloggers from taxes. He said content creators earning money from advertising should pay taxes on the same basis as other entrepreneurs. Karypbekov said he supports tax incentives for the IT sector but believes it is a mistake to extend them to bloggers. “If I earned 100 soms, I would give four soms to the state. That is a very small amount,” Karypbekov said, adding that many popular bloggers generate substantial advertising revenue and...

1 month ago

AMM 2026

Kazakhstan Seeks More Than Extraction as U.S. Minerals Interest Grows

Kazakhstan is using renewed U.S. interest in critical minerals to push a larger industrial goal: moving beyond raw-material exports and into processing, technology transfer, and higher-value manufacturing. That ambition was on display in Astana this week across two closely linked but distinct events. The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, held on June 10, brought together representatives of the five Central Asian states and the United States for a diplomatic discussion on supply-chain cooperation. The following day, the 16th International Mining and Metallurgy Congress and Exhibition, Astana Mining & Metallurgy (AMM) 2026 opened as an industry forum for mining companies, investors, technology providers, and government officials. The proximity was deliberate; the purposes were different. For Kazakhstan, the issue is not only foreign demand. It wants critical minerals to support a wider industrial strategy, including domestic processing, engineering capacity, and new manufacturing clusters. June 10: The C5+1 Diplomatic Track The C5+1 dialogue brought together representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the United States. Its agenda covered geological exploration, surveying and mapping, mining and processing, logistics, and global value and supply chains. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Yersayin Nagaspayev, used the dialogue to present critical minerals as part of the country’s industrial policy rather than simply as an export opportunity. U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs Sergio Gor represented Washington at the meeting. “Kazakhstan is interested not only in exporting raw materials, but also in developing joint production facilities, technology transfer, workforce training, and scientific cooperation,” Nagaspayev said. That point is central to Astana’s pitch. Kazakhstan has long been a major mining state, but the government is increasingly presenting critical minerals as a way to change the structure of the economy. Nagaspayev said the country has more than 9,500 mineral deposits, including more than 100 that contain rare and rare-earth metals. Kazakhstan holds significant deposits of tungsten and molybdenum and has the potential to establish a domestic raw-material base for tantalum and niobium production. It also has reserves of lithium and beryllium, which are important for advanced manufacturing, electronics, aerospace, energy storage, and defense-related industries. Kazakhstan has proven reserves or active production of roughly half of the 54 minerals identified as critical by the United States, according to Al-Farabi Ydyryshev, director general of the National Center for Technological Forecasting under the Industrial Committee. Ydyryshev said Kazakhstan already has extraction and processing capacity for materials used in aerospace, electronics, energy, and defense industries, including beryllium, tantalum, niobium, titanium, and rhenium. The question is whether those capabilities can be expanded into higher-value production. Washington’s interest in Central Asia has grown as critical minerals have become a larger part of economic security policy. China remains dominant in the production and processing of many minerals needed for batteries, semiconductors, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and advanced defense systems. Speaking at the June 10 meeting, Gor linked the minerals agenda to the need for diversification. “Our economic security depends on our ability to diversify our access to critical minerals,” Gor said. “Ensuring reliable access...

1 month ago

amnesty

Kazakhstan Amnesty Bill Could Free 1,500 Inmates, Excludes Violent Offenders

Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, has approved in its first reading a draft amnesty law tied to the adoption of the country’s new Constitution. The measure could affect approximately 16,500 people, including around 1,500 inmates who could be released from prisons and other detention facilities. The initiative is notable for its scale and because it combines criminal and administrative amnesty measures for the first time in Kazakhstan’s history. According to lawmakers, the administrative component alone could affect around one million unpaid fines. The proposal has sparked public debate over whether individuals involved in high-profile criminal cases could benefit from the measure. Some lawmakers have also argued that journalists and bloggers convicted under controversial legislation should be included. Who Will Benefit? According to Snezhanna Imasheva, chair of the Mazhilis Committee on Legislation and Judicial and Legal Reform, individuals convicted of minor offenses and criminal misdemeanors would be eligible for full release from punishment. For offenses classified as medium severity, a different approach would apply. Individuals who caused no damage, or who have fully compensated victims, could qualify for complete release. Others could receive reductions in the remaining portions of their sentences. Among the most common offenses covered by the amnesty are theft, livestock theft, and embezzlement or misappropriation of entrusted property. Certain economic crimes may also qualify for partial sentence reductions. In some cases, individuals convicted of fraud could receive reduced sentences, provided the offenses do not involve corruption, particularly large-scale damages, or other exclusions specified in the legislation. Imasheva said that approximately one million unpaid administrative fines totaling nearly $33 million could be written off. The measure would apply to fines for offenses committed before midnight on March 17, 2026, shortly after Kazakhstan’s new Constitution was adopted in a nationwide referendum. Who Will Not Be Released? The draft law excludes crimes against life and health, corruption offenses, terrorism, and extremism. Those convicted of murder, assisting suicide, intentional infliction of serious, moderate, or minor bodily harm, assault, torture, stalking, HIV transmission, and sexual offenses will not be eligible for amnesty. Those convicted of murder, assisting suicide, intentional infliction of bodily harm, assault, torture, stalking, HIV transmission, and sexual offenses will not be eligible for amnesty. The measure also excludes recently criminalized offenses such as acting as a financial “dropper” in fraud schemes and bride kidnapping. High-Profile Convicts Remain Excluded Former minister of national economy Kuandyk Bishimbayev, who was convicted in May 2024 of murdering his common-law wife, Saltanat Nukenova, will neither be released nor receive a sentence reduction. His convictions for murder committed with extreme cruelty and torture fall among the offenses excluded from the amnesty. Another widely publicized defendant, Perizat Kairat, will also be ineligible. Kairat, the founder of the charity Biz Birgemiz Qazaqstan 2030, was convicted in a high-profile fraud case involving funds raised for flood victims and other charitable causes. Lawmakers said her conviction for large-scale fraud falls under offenses excluded from the amnesty. In July 2025, Kairat was sentenced to ten years in prison, while her...

2 months ago

Fuel prices

Why Oil-Rich Kazakhstan Is Bracing for Higher Fuel Prices

Fuel prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise significantly, according to Kazakh energy analysts. Although the country remains a major oil exporter and plans to expand its refining capacity, analysts warn that these measures alone will not resolve the structural problems behind rising fuel costs. Some Kazakh energy analysts have already described 2026 as “the final year of cheap gasoline” before Kazakhstan becomes more closely integrated into the Eurasian Economic Union’s common oil and petroleum products market. The situation is further complicated by the conflict in the Middle East, which has added volatility to global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, however, the deeper problem is domestic: low-regulated prices, refinery constraints, gray-market exports, and the rising cost of crude. Higher fuel prices also carry particular political sensitivity. The unrest that shook the country in January 2022 was triggered by a sharp increase in liquefied petroleum gas prices. Any new surge in gasoline or diesel costs could ripple through the economy, accelerating inflation and increasing social tensions. A Politically Explosive Commodity Kazakhstan’s leadership learned the political risks of fuel pricing during the January 2022 crisis, when protests erupted in the western city of Zhanaozen after liquefied petroleum gas prices rose sharply. Although the government quickly intervened and blamed unscrupulous suppliers, the protests rapidly escalated into nationwide unrest. Over several days, 238 people were killed, government buildings and security facilities were seized in multiple cities, and the country faced its worst political crisis since independence. In response, the authorities imposed a 180-day moratorium on fuel price increases, with some restrictions lasting even longer. Even then, it was clear that artificially suppressing fuel prices required substantial state subsidies, while the cost of oil extraction continued to rise. The “Last Year” of Cheap Fuel? Earlier this year, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy warned that domestic fuel prices would need to gradually move closer to those in Russia by the end of 2026. Officials linked the expected price convergence to the planned launch of the EAEU’s common oil and petroleum products market on January 1, 2027. At current exchange rates, gasoline prices at Kazakh filling stations remain roughly half those in Russia. A similar price gap exists with Kyrgyzstan, encouraging the unofficial export of cheap Kazakh fuel to neighboring countries. In practice, that means Kazakhstan faces pressure from both sides: raising prices risks public anger, while keeping them low encourages fuel to leave the country unofficially. The Energy Ministry insists that future price increases will not amount to “shock therapy” for consumers. Officials say the transition toward a common EAEU fuel market will occur gradually through legislative harmonization rather than through an immediate equalization of prices across member states. At the same time, the authorities acknowledge that the large price gap with neighboring countries creates strong incentives for gray-market exports of subsidized fuel, increasing the risk of artificial shortages inside Kazakhstan. According to the ministry, the current low-price environment also limits investment in the sector. Significant funding is needed to expand the Shymkent, Atyrau and Pavlodar refineries and,...

2 months ago

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