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Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Society

Central Asia’s Growing Domestic Drug Problem

It’s in the headlines every few days now in Central Asian countries. February 1 – Uzbekistan’s law enforcement agencies report raiding a laboratory producing synthetic drugs, and seizing narcotics worth more than $800,000. February 3 – Uzbek law enforcement announces that their latest counter-narcotics operation has resulted in the seizure of 111 kilograms of illegal drugs. February 10 – police in Kyrgyzstan’s northern Chuy region seize 1.5 kilograms of hashish and 1 kilogram of marijuana. February 11 – Kazakhstan’s Committee for National Security (KNB) announces it had uncovered a laboratory in Almaty region that was producing synthetic drugs. More than 15 kilograms of these synthetic drugs were seized and 200 liters of precursor materials. In the first decade after the five countries of Central Asia became independent in 1991, many of the reports from foreign media were about Central Asia being a major transit route for narcotics coming out of Afghanistan that were for buyers in Russia and Europe. Thirty years later, drugs are still coming into Central Asia from Afghanistan, but it is no longer just opium and heroin. And now it seems a good portion of these illicit narcotics are being consumed in Central Asia. Made in Central Asia Drug-producing laboratories are multiplying, and while there are no precise figures for the number of addicts, it is clear an increasing number of young people in Central Asia are using drugs. Ashita Mittal, the regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Central Asia, said in January 2025 that during the “last several years in just Kazakhstan, law enforcement agencies have uncovered and destroyed 87 laboratories producing synthetic drugs, and in Kyrgyzstan about 11-12.” Law enforcement agencies in Kazakhstan said earlier in January that they had destroyed 63 laboratories producing illegal narcotics just in 2024. Tajikistan’s Agency for Narcotics Control said at the end of its Kuknor-2024 counter-narcotics campaign in December 2024 that it had confiscated more than 1 ton of synthetic drugs. The synthetic drugs most often mentioned in these seizures are mephedrone, a type of amphetamine and stimulant that causes euphoria, and a-PvP, another stimulant. However, there are many types of synthetic drugs now available in Central Asia. Batum Estebesova, director of Kyrgyzstan’s Sotsium drug rehabilitation center, said the variety of synthetic drugs is increasing quickly. “We can’t keep up with all the new drugs to add them to the list of prohibited substances,” Estebesova said. UN Office on Drugs and Crime representative Mittal said part of the problem comes from Afghanistan. Mittal noted in 2023, there was a 95 percent reduction in heroin production in Afghanistan, but at the same time there was an “exponential growth” in the production of methamphetamines crossing into the bordering Central Asian countries – Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In May 2023, Uzbek border guards noticed some strange marking on several boxes of pomegranate juice coming from Afghanistan. Testing showed bottles of juice in those boxes contained methamphetamine. Apparently, the buyers intended to evaporate the liquid and then collect...

1 year ago

Natural gas

Turkmenistan to Start Natural Gas Shipments to Turkey

Long-discussed shipments of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey could be just weeks away. Several options have been discussed for bringing gas to Turkey, but news since February 10 indicates Turkmenistan and Turkey chose a swap agreement involving Iran. Turkmenistan’s state information agency TDH reported the head of the country’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian by phone. During that call, Berdimuhamedov “announced the agreement with (Turkey’s) BOTAS company on the transit of Turkmen natural gas through Iran to the Republic of Turkey..." Since there is no pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to Turkey, the agreement involves a swap deal whereby Turkmenistan ships its gas to Iran and Iran makes a like amount of its gas available to Turkey. However, on February 11, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar posted on X (formerly Twitter) confirming an agreement between BOTAS and Turkmengaz. Bayraktar said “… gas flow is planned to start on March 1, 2025.” There were no details about the volume of gas to be delivered, but Turkish officials have previously been mentioning an initial volume of some 2 billion cubic meters (bcm). Turkish officials have been pushing for this deal for more than two years, with the ultimate aim of turning Turkey into a gas hub to shipments to Europe. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Turkmenistan in December 2022 to meet with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov (the son of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov). Erdogan and Aliyev were hoping for an agreement on construction of a pipeline to carry Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and from there to Turkey. Those talks were inconclusive, but did lead to a series of other meetings of officials of the three countries to discuss alternative means to ship Turkmen gas to Turkey. The swap arrangement involving Iran was one of the possibilities raised during these meetings. However, Turkey is still clinging to the plan for construction of a pipeline that would eventually boost Turkmen gas supplies to Turkey up to 15 bcm. Turkish Ambassador to Ashgabat Ahmet Demirok said in September 2024 that his country was looking to purchase 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over the next 20 years. The agreement is good news for Turkmenistan, but it also shows again how dependent Turkmenistan is becoming on Iran for gas exports. When Turkmenistan became independent in late 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the only gas pipelines in Turkmenistan led north to Russia. Turkmenistan was exporting gas to Russia for most of the years after independence, but in 2024 the latest agreement between the two countries expired and both countries indicated they would not renew Turkmen gas exports. The first post-Soviet pipeline built in Turkmenistan connected to Iran. That pipeline started operations at the end of 1997. Another pipeline from Turkmenistan to Iran was launched in 2010. The two pipelines have a combined capacity to carry some 20 bcm, but a pricing dispute between Turkmenistan and Iran in late 2016 led Turkmenistan to...

2 years ago

Starlink internet

The Twilight of Starlink in Kazakhstan?

For every country in the world, the appearance of the internet has presented vast possibilities but also formidable challenges. This was especially true in Central Asia where the governments are obsessed with controlling information that can be accessed by the public. Kazakhstan is unique among the Central Asian states in that the Kazakh government has expended significant energy and resources to make Kazakhstan a modern country with a tech savvy population. Control over the internet remains an issue and has sparked a debate in Kazakhstan about the use of foreign telecommunications satellites. Countrywide Connections In late 2024, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Digital Development stirred controversy by proposing new regulations on imports of telecommunications equipment. One proposal would ban the use of equipment from foreign companies that do not have control centers inside Kazakhstan. In December 2024, the Digital Development Ministry specifically named Inmarsat, Thuraya, Iridium, and Starlink as targets for a usage ban. Kazakhstan actually has a national security law that “prohibits the establishment and operation of communication networks within Kazakhstan if their control centers are based outside the country.” However, Kazakhstan is a large country with most of its population living in roughly the eastern third of its territory. Cities, towns, and villages scattered across the western two-thirds of Kazakhstan are poorly connected to the internet and Kazakh authorities started discussions with Musk’s SpaceX about use of Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX with a network of satellites. In October 2023, Kazakh authorities “introduced broadband internet in ten rural schools using Starlink technology in a test mode.” The pilot project envisioned sending Starlink terminals to 2,000 schools. By April 2024, the system was already connecting 447 rural schools to the internet, and by August the number had climbed to 1,731 schools. Kill Switch Required In November 2023, the director of the Ministry of Digital Development’s Telecommunications Committee, Dias Tolegenov, warned citizens that private use of Starliink terminals was illegal in Kazakhstan. The “current version” of Starlink “violates current (Kazakh) legislation, as it does not meet safety requirements,” Telugenov said. This ban is still In effect. In May 2024, the director of Kazakhstan’s Kokterek Space Communications Center, Roman Ermashov, reiterated that according to Kazakhstan’s laws, “projects using foreign satellite communication systems in non-geostationary satellite orbits,” such as Starlink, must have “a gateway (interface) station on the territory of Kazakhstan.” SpaceX refused to install the station in Kazakhstan. “This is about safety,” Ermashov said, “Because if any information security incident occurs, such as a data leak, everyone turns to the state.” This comment by Ermashov cuts to the heart of the matter. During the mass unrest in Kazakhstan in January 2022, authorities cut off the internet around the country to prevent protesters from coordinating their actions or releasing information about what was happening to the world outside Kazakhstan. Later that same year, Tajikistan ‘s government cut off the internet connection to the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast during unrest, and Uzbek authorities did the same to the western Karakalpakstan Republic when violence broke out...

2 years ago

Organized Crime

Did Kyrgyzstan’s Security Chief Order an Assassination?

The head of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB), Kamchybek Tashiyev, has been waging a campaign against organized criminal groups in his country for the last few years and it seems he believes in fighting fire with fire. Speaking to representatives of Kyrgyzstan’s education sector on January 16, Tashiyev referred to the fight against organized crime, specifically mentioning the slain reputed crime boss Kamchybek Kolbayev. “I had to take the decision to liquidate the thief in law,” Tashiyev said, “for the sake of the state. And I made this decision, and we eliminated him.” He quickly regretted such candor after his comments received wide coverage and has revised his version of events leading up to Kolbayev’s killing. The Gangster Kamchybek Kolbayev, aka Kolya Kyrgyz, was allegedly the kingpin of Kyrgyzstan’s criminal world. The term “thief in law” originated in Soviet prisons among inmates who were high-ranking figures in organized criminal groups. This tradition continued after the fall of the USSR and the “Brothers’ Circle” of top thieves in law connects criminal organizations in former Soviet republics. Kolbayev seemed indeed to be a thief in law and according to the U.S. State Department, he was part of the Brothers’ Circle, and back in 2007 it was said that Kolbayev was the “leader of the most influential criminal group” in Kyrgyzstan. Kolbayev had been imprisoned more than once, though his prison conditions were not harsh. While in prison in late 2020, a video was posted of Kolbayev and other prisoners enjoying a small feast and singing. He seemed untouchable. The Raid On October 4, 2023, the GKNB’s special Alfa unit raided the Blonder Pub in Bishkek, looking for Kolbayev. Reports from that day said the GKNB intended to detain Kolbayev as a suspect in murder of another criminal figure in July 2022. According to the GKNB, Kolbayev offered armed resistance and was shot dead when the GKNB commandos returned fire. Given the lenient treatment Kolbayev had so often received from Kyrgyz authorities, it seemed strange he chose to open fire on law enforcement officers rather than submit to being gently detained, as he had been before, and possibly incarcerated in luxury prison conditions. However, Kolbayev was an odious figure in Kyrgyzstan, greatly feared by many and the circumstances of his death did not seem to matter to most people, so long as he was gone. A ‘Hit’? On January 16, Tashiyev explained to deputy education and science ministers, university rectors, and other directors of institutions of higher learning that the organized crime structure in Kyrgyzstan had grown strong and had extended across the country. Tashiyev said the criminal network was preying upon businesses and individuals. “We were forced to take necessary measures,” Tashiyev declared, and then stated he had given the order for Kolbayev to be eliminated. He added that the GKNB’s campaign against organized crime was a success. Kyrgyzstan had become “the only country in Central Asia… and probably in the post-Soviet countries, that does not have organized crime.” It...

2 years ago

Oil and Gas

KazMunayGaz Looking to Buy Another European Oil Refinery

Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGaz (KMG) is seeking to acquire an oil refinery in Bulgaria from Russia’s LUKoil at a bargain price. The purchase of Lukoil Neftohim Burgas, the largest oil refinery in the Balkans, would, according to some media sources, more than double [KMG’s] European refining capacity.” KMG reported a bid of $1 billion for the refinery, which one outlet stated “seems small.” Pressured Out The Burgas refinery was built in the early 1960s and “joined the LUKoil Group” in 1999. The European Union decision to impose a ban on Russian oil imports after the Kremlin launched its full-scale war on Ukraine deprived Lukoil Nefthohim Burgas of its major source of crude oil. According to a Financial Times report from November 2024, the Bulgarian government pressured LUKoil to sell the refinery, hitting the Russian company “with a 60% tax on profits in an effort to force out its owners” and prohibiting the “export of Russian crude-based products from Lukoil Neftohim Burgas.” In turn, LUKoil complained about “discriminatory laws and other unfair, biased political decisions toward the refinery.” KMG reportedly lost interest in the refinery in late 2024, but BNN Bloomberg reported on January 7 that the Kazakh company was still among the bidders for the Bulgarian refinery. Advantage KMG When the EU banned Russian oil imports, Lukoil Nefthohim Burgas compensated by purchasing oil from Kazakhstan and the Middle East. If KMG buys the Bulgarian refinery, presumably most or all of the crude processed there will come from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan exported some 70.5 million tons of oil in 2023, and expects figures will be slightly less in 2024, some 68.8 million tons, due to maintenance at the Tengiz and Kashagan fields. Some 80% of those oil exports are shipped from Kazakhstan through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to Russia’s Black Sea port at Novorossiysk. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU purchased about 50% of the Kazakh oil shipped through the CPC pipeline, but that amount has risen to 80% since the ban on Russian oil imports was imposed. Kazakhstan is also increasing the amount of oil it exports through Azerbaijan to Georgia’s Black Sea port at Batumi, where KMG subsidiary KazTransOil owns the oil terminal. Kazakhstan has a deal to ship 1.5 million tons of oil annually through Azerbaijan, but Kazakh Energy Minister Abdusalam Satkaliyev said in November 2024 that his country was looking to boost that to 20 million tons. Kazakhstan currently has two Aframax-class oil tankers (deadweight 80,000 tons each) operating in the Black Sea, but plans to bring this number to 12 during the coming years. The Lukoil Nefthohim Burgas refinery has a capacity to process some seven tons of oil annually. KMG International already owns two oil refineries in Romania. The Petromidia refinery, with an annual capacity of some five million tons, is located 20 kilometers from the Black Sea port city of Constanta, and the much smaller and older Vega refinery, north of Bucharest, with an annual capacity of some 350,000 tons....

2 years ago

Regional Cooperation

Heads of Kyrgyz, Tajik, and Uzbek Governments Meet… Finally

It took more than 30 years, but the prime ministers of the three Central Asian countries that share the Ferghana Valley finally met to discuss a range of important issues that concern all three states. Tajik Prime Minister Kohir Rasulzoda, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, and Chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers (Kyrgyzstan does not have a post of prime minister) Adylbek Kasymaliyev met on January 8 at a desolate area where the borders of the three countries meet. [caption id="attachment_27412" align="aligncenter" width="8256"] Image: gov.kg[/caption] The group touted agreements on the completion of the delimitation process along the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border and the early December 2024 agreement on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. Since 1991, unmarked areas of the borders in the Ferghana Valley were often the scenes of conflicts between communities on either side of the frontier. Border guards sometimes fired on trespassers and dozens of people were killed or wounded, sometimes simply because they inadvertently strayed over unmarked territory into the neighboring country. The Ferghana Valley is the most densely populated region in Central Asia. This is due to the rich agricultural land which makes the region to this day the breadbasket of Central Asia. Soviet mapmakers drew lines to create Soviet republics in the region, though these borders mattered little since they were internal administrative boundaries inside one country. [caption id="attachment_27413" align="aligncenter" width="8256"] Image: gov.kg[/caption] After the USSR collapsed, these often-arbitrary, zigzagging borders took on meaning, and disputes quickly broke out about what land historically belonged to which nation and who had rights to water use. These issues were greatly complicated by the existence of enclaves created during the Soviet period such as Uzbekistan’s Soh and Shahimardon and Tajikistan’s Vorukh, all three of which are surrounded by Kyrgyzstan. Looking Ahead The three prime ministers discussed hydropower plants (HPP), an important topic for all three countries, especially as key HPPs are located in the mountains ringing the Ferghana Valley and more are currently under construction. Central Asia is one the regions most affected by climate change, so HPPs and water use in general are crucial issues, especially given that agriculture in the Ferghana Valley is vital to all three countries. All three countries face electricity shortages and hydropower is seen as a means of alleviating or even totally resolving this dilemma, but at the same time waters flowing from the mountains of Kyrgyzstan are important for agriculture in every Central Asian state. Uzbek media noted Uzbek Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov was part of the delegation attending the January 8 talks. Reports did not mention if energy ministers from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were also present. [caption id="attachment_27414" align="aligncenter" width="8256"] Image: gov.kg[/caption] Central Asia is also taking on a new importance as a trade corridor between Europe and China, and from Europe and China into Afghanistan and on further to Pakistan. Reports noted logistics were high on the agenda at the meeting of the three prime ministers. Trade between the three countries, specifically in the Ferghana Valley, was also discussed not only...

2 years ago

China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

Old Projects Now Part of Kyrgyzstan’s Near Future

Two projects that successive governments in Kyrgyzstan over the course of more than three decades have promoted as key to the country’s long-term success appear to finally be making progress. The idea for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway dates back to the early days of Kyrgyzstan’s independence, and plans for construction of the massive Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower plant (HPP) go back even further, to the Soviet-era. After all these years, these aspirations that have almost faded into dreams are set to be realized. All Aboard On December 27, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov took part in a ceremony near the southern city of Jalal-Abad to launch construction of Kyrgyzstan’s section of the CKU railway. The idea of a trans-Asian railway that would run from China into Kyrgyzstan and on to points further west goes back to the first meeting on Central Asian presidents in December 1991 in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. It was a lofty ambition from five leaders whose countries had been independent for barely three months, but then-Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev followed up on the proposal, discussing the railway project with Chinese leaders when he visited Beijing in May 1992. That was more than one year before the first road border crossing opened between the two countries. By the end of the 1990s, the scope of the project had narrowed to a railway connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, though it was often vaguely mentioned the line could be part of a longer railway connecting China to Europe through Central Asia. The topic of the CKU railway was always part of the agenda for every Kyrgyz president whenever they met with Chinese leaders. In June 2001, then-Kyrgyz transport and communications minister Kubanychbek Jumaliyev announced his country would sign an inter-governmental agreement with China and Uzbekistan on construction of the railway. At that time, Jumaliyev said some 250 kilometers of the line would pass through Kyrgyzstan and the cost of construction of the whole line would be about $2.3 billion. According to the latest plans for the route, CKU railway will be 486 kilometers, from Kashgar in China’s western Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region to Torugart on the Kyrgyz-China border, then through the Kyrgyz cities of Makmal and Jalal-Abad to Andijon in Uzbekistan. The distance is not great, but the mountainous landscape of Kyrgyzstan through which the route will pass presents some formidable challenges. The 312 kilometers that will run through Kyrgyzstan requires construction of 81 bridges and 41 tunnels that will account for some 120 kilometers of the 312-kilometer Kyrgyz section of the railway. According to some sources, including Akylbek Japarov, who until December 16 was chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers, the estimated cost of building the entire railway is now put at some $8 billion. Cash-strapped Kyrgyzstan is expected to pay some $4.7 billion of that, and has already agreed to accept a Chinese loan of some $2.35 billion. The advantages for Kyrgyzstan will not come quickly, but they should come eventually. Simply being better connected to markets in Europe and China...

2 years ago

Konibodom

Fear Returns to Tajikistan’s Konibodom Area

A series of murders in spring had residents in the area around Tajikistan’s northern city of Konibodom on edge for weeks. Thirteen people were killed between late March and late May, apparently by someone who broke into their homes at night. The victims ages ranged from young children to elderly people; they were ethnic Tajiks and Kyrgyz (Konibodom is located near the border with Kyrgyzstan), and the crimes happened in different areas around the city. The murders stopped, and later the Tajik authorities said they had captured the suspects, but on December 9, the nightmare started again with six people being killed, and on December 16, four more people were found dead in their homes. The Killing Starts Again On December 9, the bodies of six people were found in the Shurkurgon neighborhood of Konibodom. All six were members of the Nematov family. Thirty-seven-year-old Naimjon was found hanged on a tree in the courtyard of the family’s home. His body showed signs of a struggle. His 33-year-old wife and four children, the youngest only two years old, were all strangled inside the family’s home. Local authorities and police have not commented on the killings. On December 16, reports said the bodies of 35-year-old Gaibullo Majidov and his 28-year-old wife Zarnigor were found in their home in Konibodom’s Hisorak neighborhood. Their three children were reportedly unharmed. On the same day in the same neighborhood, the bodies of 70-year-old Oyisha Shokirova and her 44-year-old son Javlon were found. Reports said all appeared to have died violent deaths, but the exact cause was not given. Police have also not commented on these murders. Prior to these latest killings, it appeared the police had caught at least some of the people responsible for a wave of murders in the spring that had local residents talking about “men in black” who prowled the streets in the middle of the night. The Authorities’ Version On July 31, Konibodom Mayor Abdusalom Tukhtasunzoda said a suspect had been caught for the May 28-29 killings of six people in the village of Sanjidzor, on the outskirts of Konibodom. Tukhtasunzoda did not give any details about the suspect or the motive, except to say the person had been detained the week before. The Konibodom mayor said the murders in May were not connected to the earlier killings of five members of the Sharipov family in March, or to Muzaffar Urmonov and his wife Inoyat Urmanova in April. Tukhtasunzoda also dismissed the tales being told of men dressed in black clothing and masks being responsible for any of the murders. “There were no people ‘in black’ in the city of Konibodom,” Tukhtasunzoda said, “The video, which is distributed on social networks, was not filmed in Konibodom. Such footage is being circulated to frighten people.” On August 8, First Deputy Interior Minister Abdurahmon Alamshozoda told a press conference the was “nothing sensational” about the murders in Konibodom the previous spring. Alamshozoda said the incidents in March and April were the...

2 years ago

Oil and Gas

Turkmenistan to Boost Gas Exports to Neighbor Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan has agreed to purchase more natural gas from Turkmenistan, though the amount of additional gas and the price remain unclear. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev spoke by phone with the chairman of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) and leader of the country Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov on December 5 to discuss the deal. According to Turkmen state news, Berdimuhamedov “agreed to the increase” of Turkmen gas to Uzbekistan, and it would not be surprising if Berdimuhamedov was quietly dancing in celebration on the other end of the line. Anxious to Sell Turkmenistan has the fourth largest gas reserves in the world, some 17.5 trillion cubic meters, at least. To put that in perspective, the 27 countries of the European Union, combined, used 350 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022, meaning Turkmenistan has enough gas to meet all the EU’s gas needs, at current levels, for 50 years. Unfortunately, more than 33 years after becoming independent, Turkmenistan still does not have many customers for its gas. There is China, which buys the most Turkmen gas, some 35 billion cubic meters (bcm), Uzbekistan, which in recent years has been purchasing 1.5-2 bcm annually from Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, which gets 1-1.5 bcm of Turkmen gas via a swap arrangement involving Iran. Turkmenistan’s only successful recent export deal is with Iraq for 10 bcm, which involves a swap arrangement with Iran that will require maintenance work and repairs on Turkmenistan’s and Iran’s pipelines. Turkmenistan just lost Russia as a customer after the contract for Russia to purchase up to 5.5 bcm of Turkmen gas expired at the end of June 2024. The expiration of the agreement with Russia meant Turkmenistan lost its second biggest buyer, but that might now turn out to be good news for Uzbekistan. Anxious to Buy The jump in the number of people and accompanying expansion of service infrastructure have combined with Uzbekistan’s gross failure to increase domestic gas output to make Uzbekistan a net gas importer. In late January 2023, Uzbek media reported the country produced some 51.7 bcm of gas in 2022 and said plans called for increasing that to 56.3 bcm in 2023. Instead, gas production fell to 46.7 bcm in 2023, and it is set to decrease further in 2024. Uzbekistan signed its first contract for Turkmen gas in December 2022. That deal was for 1.5 bcm annually, but in August 2023, the two countries agreed to boost that to 2 bcm. However, that was not enough to fill Uzbekistan’s growing gas consumption needs. In June 2023, Uzbekistan signed a two-year agreement to import up to 2.8 bcm of gas from Russia, but by March 2024, reports showed Uzbekistan looking to increase Russian gas imports to 11 bcm starting in 2026. It looks like some of the 5.5 bcm Turkmenistan was until recently selling to Russia will instead be sent to Uzbekistan, so for Turkmenistan, the gas deal with Uzbekistan only recovers some of the revenue lost with the expiration of the contract with Russia....

2 years ago

Kyrgyz-Tajik Border

A Final Deal Along Central Asia’s Deadliest Border

It took some 33 years, but on December 4, Kyrgyz and Tajik officials reached a final agreement on delimitation of the last sections of their 972-kilometer border. It is a relief for the entire Central Asian region. In those 33 years the five Central Asian countries (including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have been independent, the only open conflicts between the armed forces of two Central Asian countries happened between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In the southern Kyrgyz city of Batken on December 4, Kyrgyz security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev and Tajik counterpart Saimumin Yatimov announced an agreement that Tajik state news agency Khovar said “fully completed the delimitation of the remaining sections of the Tajik-Kyrgyz state border.” Most of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border runs through the Pamir Mountains. The eastern part, approximately two-thirds of the common frontier, passes through remote and sparsely inhabited areas. Agreement on where the dividing line between the two countries was easy to reach in this section. The remaining one-third of the border in the west proved far more difficult to find compromises. [caption id="attachment_26293" align="aligncenter" width="2256"] Road near the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai. On one side of the road is Tajikistan, the other side, Kyrgyzstan; image: Bruce Pannier[/caption] Kyrgyz and Tajiks are two of the oldest peoples in Central Asia. Their ancestors lived in what is now the border area many hundreds of years before there were any borders. The Soviet Union changed that when it created the Kyrgyz and Tajik Soviet Socialist Republics, not only drawing lines on a map, which were redrawn more than once, but also including enclaves on either side of the border. Roads in the area zigzagged back and forth, one minute through Kyrgyzstan, and few minutes later through Tajikistan, over and over again. As border tensions began to appear toward the end of the 2000-2010 period, both countries started building roads to avoid crossing into the neighboring state, but the terrain is rugged, limiting possibilities for alternate routes. Also, new road construction is expensive and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are both poor countries. [caption id="attachment_26294" align="aligncenter" width="2256"] The entrance to Tajikistan's Vorukh enclave; image: Bruce Pannier[/caption] The lone road leading from Batken to the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai and the Tajik enclave of Vorukh weaves through both countries several times and in some places, the road is the border. Visible from any village in this area are the snow-capped mountains, but down in the valleys, water has always been a problem. Like the roads, small rivers and canals meander across both sides of the border, and unsurprisingly, water use is a major source of tensions and has been a significant obstacle in deciding where the border should be. The first hints of trouble came after 2000 and involved petty vandalism, usually children throwing rocks at passing vehicles with license plates from the neighboring country. This escalated and after 2010, when incidents of physical altercations between members of border communities started, followed by vandalism targeting homes and businesses in border villages. Since much of...

2 years ago

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