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Economy

Kazakhstan Targets Raising Wage Share of GDP to 40%

The Kazakh government is preparing a series of measures aimed at accelerating wage growth and increasing the overall wage fund, with the goal of raising its share in the country’s GDP to 40%, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov announced during an expanded government meeting. According to government estimates, household incomes are currently growing more slowly than the broader economy and corporate profits, including those generated with state support. At present, wages account for roughly 31% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, a figure considered relatively high by Central Asian standards but still below the levels seen in developed economies, where wage funds typically exceed 40% of GDP. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2025 reached $20.1 billion in monetary terms, with the economy expanding at an annual rate of 6.5%, according to official data. To address the income gap, the government is developing a comprehensive package that includes financial, tax, and regulatory incentives for employers to raise wages. The initiative also prioritizes the creation of new, decently paid jobs, upskilling of the workforce, and reducing the financial burden on citizens. Real income growth has been designated a key economic policy priority for 2026. A complementary role will be played by the upcoming Joint Action Program for 2026-2028, developed by the Cabinet, the financial regulator, and the National Bank. The program aims to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and improve public welfare, setting a target of household income growth at a rate of at least 2-3% above inflation each year. According to official statistics, the average monthly salary in Kazakhstan stood at approximately $873 by the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, earlier reports indicated that the minimum wage will remain frozen at $172 in 2026, despite prior commitments to increase it.

Investments

EBRD Invested Over $100 Million in Tajikistan’s Economy in 2025

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) invested nearly $103 million in Tajikistan’s economy in 2025, signing 19 agreements over the course of the year. The funding targeted key sectors including energy, transport, municipal infrastructure, and private sector development. According to the bank, 83% of its 2025 loan portfolio in Tajikistan supported sustainable infrastructure projects. Another 14% of resources were channelled through local banks to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), women’s and youth entrepreneurship initiatives, and programs focused on climate adaptation and resource efficiency. The public sector received the majority of financing, accounting for 83% of the EBRD’s annual activity in the country. Of the total lending volume, approximately 58% was directed toward green economy development. One of the year’s largest initiatives was a financing package of up to €43 million for the state-owned power distribution company, Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The package includes an EBRD sovereign loan of up to €28 million and a €15 million grant from the European Union. These funds are being used to modernize electricity metering and billing systems across nine cities in the Khatlon and Sughd regions. Significant investment also went into road infrastructure. An EBRD sovereign loan of up to €38 million, combined with an $86.7 million grant from the Asian Development Bank, will fund the reconstruction of the Danghara-Guliston highway. The route connects the north and south of the Khatlon region, which produces over half of Tajikistan’s agricultural output and is home to more than one-third of the population. A major energy milestone was achieved in 2025 with the completion of the Kayrokkum hydropower plant’s modernization. The plant’s installed capacity increased from 126 MW to 174 MW after all six units were brought online. Serving around 500,000 people in the Sughd region, the project, initiated in 2019, was financed with $196 million arranged by the EBRD. The bank also issued three sovereign loans totaling over €12 million for water supply system upgrades in Kulyab and Yavan, and for the modernization of Dushanbe’s centralized heating system. Alongside infrastructure projects, the EBRD expanded its support for the private sector. In 2025, more than 500 small enterprises across Tajikistan received various forms of assistance from the bank.

Economy

Kazakhstan’s Economy Grew by 6.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in January-December 2025, according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau. The Ministry of National Economy reported that the key drivers of GDP growth were industry, transport, construction, and trade. At year-end, the industrial production index stood at 7.4%, with the manufacturing sector showing steady growth of 6.4%. Positive dynamics in industry were attributed to an 8.1% increase in food production, a 5.9% rise in oil refining, 9.8% growth in the chemical industry, a 1.2% uptick in metallurgy, and a 12.9% increase in machine building . The transport and warehousing sector recorded a substantial 20.4% growth in 2025, driven by increased freight transport by road and rail, alongside growth in passenger transport across various regions. The volume of ancillary transport services also expanded, including freight forwarding, air traffic control, airport and warehouse operations, and grain and refrigerated cargo storage. Construction surged by 15.9%, linked to the implementation of major infrastructure and social development projects, including the building of schools, medical facilities, and transport and engineering infrastructure. In the same period, 20.1 million square meters of housing were commissioned, a 5.1% increase from 2024. Trade posted an 8.9% increase by the end of the year, led by wholesale trade, which comprised more than two-thirds of the sector’s volume. Notably, wholesale trade in grain, seeds, and animal feed rose by 160%, trade in equipment nearly doubled, and pharmaceutical sales increased by 44.1%. Sales of automobiles grew by 33%, while dairy products, eggs, edible oils, and fats rose by 25.8%, and sugar, chocolate, and confectionery products by 21.2%. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 5.9%, supported by a 7.8% increase in crop production and 3.3% in livestock production. The information and communications sector posted 3.6% growth. “Overall, the pace of economic development reflects the steady growth of key industries,” the Ministry of National Economy stated. For comparison, GDP growth in 2024 stood at 5%, with the largest contributions from construction (15.3%), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (13.7%), transportation and warehousing (9.4%), wholesale and retail trade (8.9%), and manufacturing (6.8%). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev forecast in early December 2025 that GDP would exceed 6% growth by year-end.

Economy

Uzbekistan’s International Reserves Hit Record $66.3 Billion

Uzbekistan’s international reserves surged in 2025, rising by $25.1 billion to reach a record $66.3 billion as of January 1, 2026, according to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. This 61% increase compared to the start of the year was primarily driven by rising global gold prices, although foreign currency reserves also grew significantly. In December alone, gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by $5.08 billion, an 8.3% month-on-month gain. This marks the highest reserve level since the Central Bank began publishing official statistics in 2013. Gold remained the dominant contributor to the increase. According to the Central Bank, the value of gold in the country’s reserves rose by more than $4.23 billion in December, reaching $55.09 billion. The physical volume of gold holdings also expanded, growing from 12.2 million to 12.6 million troy ounces, an increase of 0.4 million ounces in just one month. Earlier in 2025, Uzbekistan’s gold strategy diverged from global trends. In September, the World Gold Council reported that Uzbekistan was the only country to record net gold sales. While most central banks were increasing their reserves, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan reduced its holdings during that period.

devaluation

Devaluation in Kazakhstan: Grim Forecast or Financial Strategy?

Expectations of a potential devaluation of Kazakhstan's national currency, the tenge, are gaining momentum in the country, despite its recent strengthening against the dollar. While the government projects stability, some financial players and experts openly support a weaker tenge. But are these fears grounded in economic reality, or do particular interests drive them? Kazakhstan’s currency is particularly sensitive to global market shifts because around half of the country’s export revenues come from oil and other raw materials. When commodity prices fall or external demand weakens, pressure on the tenge increases. The currency is also affected by high import dependence: many consumer goods, industrial inputs, and food products are priced in foreign currencies, making the economy highly responsive to exchange-rate movements. One of the most vocal proponents of a free-floating tenge is economist Aidarkhan Kusainov, a former adviser to the head of the National Bank. A long-time advocate for a free-floating tenge, Kusainov maintains that the currency remains overvalued. In 2021, he predicted the exchange rate would reach 500 tenge to the $1. As of now, the rate hovers around 510. Kusainov has recently gained broader attention following his criticism of rising taxes and utility tariffs during an appearance on a YouTube podcast hosted by Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev. “Today, the singer of devaluation, a well-known but unpopular economist, woke up as a competent people’s professional (judging by the comments),” Kusainov wrote, replete with smiling emojis in assessing his newfound popularity on his Telegram channel. His prediction of a $1-to-1,000-tenge exchange rate has indeed gone viral. “If our National Fund runs out today, the exchange rate will instantly soar above 1,000. As soon as we stop injecting petrodollars and transfers into the economy, the tenge will drop to 800–900, and then quickly weaken to beyond 1,000. I've always advocated for these measures," he said in an interview with Ulysmedia. These debates are unfolding against a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressure. Although headline inflation has moderated from its earlier peaks, price growth in consumer-credit-driven segments remains elevated. Any significant weakening of the tenge would likely feed directly into consumer prices, especially for imported goods, which still account for a large share of household consumption. Kusainov's projection is not shared by the majority of analysts, however, who see such a scenario occurring only under the weight of severe external shocks. In contrast, the National Bank’s forecasts remain more conservative. According to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank in November 2025, the exchange rate is expected to reach 525.8 tenge by the end of 2025. For 2026 and 2027, the tenge is projected to weaken gradually to 548.2 and 565, respectively. Economist Serik Kozybaev, among others, rejects the idea of a sharp devaluation. He has attributed the tenge’s recent strength to currency interventions by the National Bank: “There are no serious reasons for such a significant weakening. On the contrary, over the past month, the exchange rate improved from 540 to 518 due to announced interventions. I expect this trend to continue, possibly bringing...

Immigration

How the Russian Relocation Wave Reshaped Kazakhstan’s Economy

In September 2022, northern Kazakhstan’s border crossings experienced huge surges as tens of thousands of Russians fled mobilization for the war in Ukraine. In Almaty and Astana, rental prices soared to historic highs, and social infrastructure came under intense pressure. At the time, the influx seemed poised to destabilize the country’s established equilibrium. Two years on, the situation has transformed. The initial surge subsided, and spontaneous migration underwent a natural filtering process. Many who saw Kazakhstan as a temporary stop have moved on or returned to Russia. Those who made a conscious decision to stay have legalized their status and integrated into the local economy. Despite initial fears, the mass relocation did not damage Kazakhstan’s economy. On the contrary, the so-called "Russian exodus" accelerated Almaty and Astana’s evolution into cosmopolitan urban centers, while introducing lasting economic shifts. A New Diaspora Understanding the impact of the mass migration requires distinguishing transient travelers from those who settled. During the peak in autumn 2022, more than 400,000 Russian citizens crossed the border, though most quickly departed Kazakhstan. According to Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry, from January 2023 to September 2024, more than 80,000 Russian citizens received residence permits for work. Including family members and remote workers, the core of the relocated population can be estimated at 100,000–120,000 people. Those who remained form a skilled urban middle class, IT specialists, engineers, doctors, and entrepreneurs, largely aged 25 to 40. When the “visa run” legal loophole allowing stay extensions by briefly exiting the country was abolished in January 2023, many were forced to legalize their presence. The rule change pushed many relocants to formalize their stay through work contracts or business registration, which in turn made their economic activity more visible to the state. By the end of 2023, the number of registered legal entities with Russian participation exceeded 18,000, a 70% increase. In 2024, that number rose to more than 23,000. The “Cappuccino Effect” The arrival of tens of thousands of solvent consumers brought not only capital, but also the consumption habits of Russia’s megacities. International institutions, including the IMF, have acknowledged that Kazakhstan’s 2023 GDP growth was supported in part by robust domestic demand. Spending surged in restaurants, delivery services, taxis, and gyms, especially in Almaty and Astana. This boost helped small and medium-sized businesses recover from the pandemic. Russian entrepreneurs, opening everything from coffee shops to architecture firms, raised service standards and intensified competition. Local businesses responded by improving their quality and digitalizing operations. However, this also pushed up consumer prices, contributing to inflation and affecting local purchasing power. Housing remains the most visible pressure point. While the panic of late 2022 has passed, rents remain well above pre-crisis levels. Analysts estimate that average house prices are still 40% higher than in 2021. This has fueled gentrification, with central Almaty’s “Golden Square” and elite areas of Astana becoming expat enclaves. Students, public sector workers, and young families have increasingly been pushed to the outskirts, increasing commuting times and straining public transport. Many relocants are...