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Uzbekistan’s Public Debt Projected to Reach $45.1 Billion by 2025

According to the “Budget for Citizens” publication issued by Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, Uzbekistan’s public debt is projected to reach $45.1 billion by the end of 2025. Updated estimates indicate that state debt will amount to $39.7 billion by the end of this year, rising to $45.1 billion, equivalent to 36.7% of GDP, in 2025. The publication’s primary focus is forecasting revenues, expenditure, and deficits in the state budget for 2025. State budget revenues are projected at 308,547 billion UZS ($24.19 billion), with the economy expected to grow by 6% in 2025, increasing to 6.1% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027. State budget expenditure for 2025 is planned at 344,576 billion UZS ($27.02 billion), with 52% being allocated to social spending. The report provides detailed information on budget allocations by ministries and departments, their alignment with national sustainable development goals, and their impact on climate change. It also outlines how funds will be classified under development programs, ensuring transparency and adherence to Uzbekistan’s broader policy objectives.

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Government Reports Steady Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan

Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Akylbek Japarov announced in parliament on November 14 that Kyrgyzstan's GDP exceeded a historical high of 1.3 trillion KGS in 2023 and is projected to reach 1.5 trillion KGS ($17.35 billion) by the end of the year. Presenting the state budget execution for 2023 and the draft budget for 2025, Japarov reported a 9% real GDP growth rate for 2023, consistent with the growth rate in 2022. For context, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth was 7% in 2021. Japarov offered a conservative forecast for 2024, predicting 9.2% GDP growth. “If we divide GDP per capita, then in 2020, this figure was $1,200, and in 2024, it will exceed $2,500,” he noted. The average monthly wage in Kyrgyzstan has risen steadily from $239 (20,249 KGS) in 2021 to $316 (26,620 KGS) in 2022 and $376 in 2023. By the end of 2024, it is expected to reach $415 (35,791 KGS). From January to September 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade volume was $12.1 billion, an 8.4% increase. Exports grew by 28.2%, totaling $2.8 billion, while imports rose by 3.7%, amounting to $9.3 billion. Inflation has significantly decreased, dropping from 14.7% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2023, and reaching 4.2% from January to October 2024. Japarov also highlighted the growth of Kyrgyzstan’s industrial sector, attributing it to investments and government support. By the end of 2024, more than 150 new enterprises are expected to open, with total investment projected at $2.2 billion and an estimated 19,000 jobs created. Further, for the first time since independence, Kyrgyzstan has started producing cars, standard gold bars, and new types of medicines. In the energy sector, Japarov reported that small hydroelectric power plants with a combined capacity of 48.3 MW were brought online in 2024. Additionally, solar and wind power projects are underway, alongside the reconstruction of the Toktogul hydroelectric power plant, the country’s largest.

International transport International Finance Europe Infrastructure Development China ADB Construction Economy

New Guzor to Beinau Highway Brings Uzbekistan Closer to Europe

Uzbekistan has completed a new 240-kilometer section of the A380 highway connecting the cities of Guzor, Bukhara, Nukus, and Beineu, passing through the Kungirot district of Karakalpakstan. The road, built with a cement-concrete coating, is a strategic road connecting Uzbekistan with Europe. The Asian Development Bank allocated $274.9 million to the construction, while Uzbekistan contributed $108.5 million. Turkish and Azerbaijani companies managed the first 120 kilometers of the road, with Chinese companies managing the rest. The highway aims to boost the capacity and quality of international and national highways, cutting road maintenance costs by 2.5 times. This new road will reduce travel time by 2.2 times, double transit traffic, cut fatal accidents by half, and contribute to regional GDP growth. It will also reduce Uzbekistan's international transport distance to 1,000 kilometers, lowering shipping costs by 25%. New trade and service centers are planned alongside the highway, initially creating 2,000 jobs and an additional 5,000 expected. This development is projected to boost Karakalpakstan’s annual transit and service revenue by $200 million and exports by at least $300 million.

International Finance Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs International Relations Foreign debt Economy

Turkey Writes Off All Foreign Debt to Kyrgyzstan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov during his state visit to Bishkek. It has became known that Turkey has decided to write off Kyrgyzstan's remaining debt, which amounted to $58.9 million. “I express my sincere gratitude to President Erdogan for the decision to write off the debt,” Japarov said at a joint press conference. He also asked the Turkish side to consider customs privileges for Kyrgyz suppliers and to involve Turkish companies in constructing small—and medium-sized hydroelectric power plants in Kyrgyzstan. Erdogan said the talks resulted in the signing of 19 documents on cooperation, including in trade. “We discussed steps to increase trade turnover between our countries from $2 billion to $5 billion. Turkish construction companies have implemented more than 90 projects here with a total value of about $1 billion,” he said. This is not the first time Turkey has forgiven Kyrgyzstan's debt. In 2011 Ankara wrote off $51m of the country's foreign debt, accrued over the previous 15 years. According to the Kyrgyz Finance Ministry, by August 2024, the country's total foreign debt amounted to $4.6 billion. Erdogan is on a state visit to Kyrgyzstan from November 4-6.

Loans & Grants Financial Market Government Economy Finance

Kyrgyzstan Prepares for First Placement of European and American Bonds

According to Bloomberg, the Ministry of Finance of Kyrgyzstan is working on the first placement of European and American bonds in the country's history. Arzubek Jumaev, head of the Kyrgyz Finance Ministry's Public Debt Department, confirmed to the publication that the agency is currently negotiating with investors for a possible first sale of euro and U.S. bonds as early as 2025. “The size of the issue and investment banks will be determined later,” Zhumayev said. It is also reported that the Finance Ministry expects an improvement in its credit rating from Moody's to attract investors. Kyrgyzstan's credit rating is at B3, six indicators below the required investment grade. Earlier, Moody's rating agency changed Kyrgyzstan's credit rating from negative to stable, which, according to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce, indicates the country's balance of risks and positive dynamics in its financial and economic issues. In addition, in September this year, the authorities signed an agreement with other Western rating agencies, Standard and Poor's and Fitch, to collaborate on assessing credit risks and improving Kyrgyzstan's investment attractiveness. It should be noted that the Ministry of Finance of Kyrgyzstan places government securities guaranteed by the state. These are state treasury bills and state treasury bonds. The securities issues are placed monthly on the Kyrgyz Stock Exchange. In 2024, Kyrgyzstan's domestic debt increased by $232 million, which indicates good demand for government securities. Loans on government securities currently amount to $1.8 billion.

economic Economy Sanctions Government US sanctions Russia's War Ukraine War

U.S. Sanctions Uzbek Companies Supplying Russia with Equipment

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned 275 individuals and entities involved in supplying Russia with advanced technology and equipment that it desperately needs to support its war machine. The Uzbek companies Uzstanex and The Elite Investment Group are among the sanctioned entities. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo emphasized that the U.S. and its allies are committed to halting the flow of essential tools and technologies that enable Russia to pursue its unlawful war against Ukraine. “As demonstrated by today’s actions, we are unwavering in our resolve to weaken Russia’s military capabilities and to penalize those attempting to circumvent or evade our sanctions and export controls,” Adeyemo stated. Uzstanex is part of the StanexGroup holding. The company sells and adjusts machine tools in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the machine tools purchased by Uzstanex were delivered to Russia through the Chinese company Shanghai Winsun Imp and Exp Co Ltd (Shanghai Winsun), which is why sanctions were imposed against it. The Elite Investment Group is a non-specialized wholesaler. It is noted that from mid-March to May 2024, using GUCLU GLOBAL as a carrier agent, the company delivered approximately $190,000 worth of high-priority goods, including electrical transformers, to companies in Russia, including the GS Group.