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Russia’s Strategic Posturing and Putin’s November Visit to Kazakhstan

On November 27, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan underscored the complex geopolitical and security challenges facing the region. Hosted by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, the visit took place amidst heightened tensions following Russia’s deployment of its Oreshnik hypersonic missile in Ukraine on November 21. This escalation has reshaped the regional security environment, compelling Kazakhstan to confront potential spillover effects of the Ukraine conflict. Energy remained a central focus during the visit. Kazakhstan remains heavily reliant on oil exports through the pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which passes through southern Russia. This cooperation benefits Kazakhstan economically but, by tying Kazakhstan further into Russian energy networks, it further complicates Astana's efforts to balance relations with Moscow and Western powers. Following periodic closures of the CPC route on various pretexts, Kazakhstan has resolved to diversify its energy export strategy. It has increased shipments by barge across the Caspian Sea to enter the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which terminates on Turkey's coast in the eastern Mediterranean. One should not be surprised if ideas about the old Trans-Caspian Oil Pipeline (TCOP) project are taken out of deep storage for reanimation. The TCOP is an undersea link first discussed in the late 2000s between then-Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Nicolas Sarkozy of France. It was shelved at the time because it did not seem geoeconomically necessary. Since then, relations between Russia and Kazakhstan have been complicated by the periodic CPC closures that, although they are given technical justification, appear politically motivated by Moscow to squeeze Astana. Kazakhstan's short-term solution, to increase oil shipments by barge across the Caspian Sea to Baku for insertion into the BTC pipeline, simply cannot attain the volumes necessary to provide a strategic alternative to the CPC. The BTC, at present, would be able to accommodate whatever volumes Kazakhstan would be able to transit to Azerbaijan including via a prospective TCOP, for export to world markets from Ceyhan. One would suppose that bilateral discussions also covered the possible participation of Rosatom in the construction and operation of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). However, no mention of this topic was made in public statements. Kazakhstan would prefer to escape the vise-like pressure between Russia and China on this matter. That is why Tokayev has discussed participation by the French firms Orano and EDF with France's President Emmanuel Macron. It has recently been suggested that it would be technically feasible for Kazakhstan to find a group of Western companies capable of executing the project. A Western consortium would have no reason to hesitate to include Kazatomprom in an appropriate role, not excluding capacity-building. The Russia-only and China-only options for the NPP's construction would be less welcoming to such a possibility. Kazakhstan's leadership has become properly sensitive to how energy partnerships are not just economic decisions, but strategic calculations in Central Asia's volatile geopolitical landscape. Indeed, Russia’s use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine has created an entirely new security situation. It has raised concerns that...

Russia Ukraine Bilateral Relations Language Russia's War Putin

Putin in Kazakhstan: Language Diplomacy, Treaty Fine Print and a Hack

Geopolitical tensions, finding common ground on oil and gas transportation and deliveries and Russia’s hopes of beating out rivals to build Kazakhstan´s first nuclear power plant. These were some of the big ticket themes framing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to the Central Asian nation last week. The Times of Central Asia looks at a few other things that happened on the sidelines: A Tale of Two Languages “Kazakhstan is practically a Russian-speaking country, which you have probably had a chance to see for yourself.” Putin was extolling close ties between Russia and Kazakhstan when he made that remark to journalists in Astana last week. But the comment also drew attention to how Kazakhstan uses the Kazakh language to express national identity and independence from a past controlled by Moscow. In November 2023, during an earlier visit by Putin to Astana, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke in Kazakh rather than Russian, causing senior Russian officials to reach somewhat hurriedly for their earpieces to get the translation. While Russia and Kazakhstan share a long land border and are bound by deep economic and security ties, Tokayev’s semantic switch seemed to be a reminder that Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic and Russian imperial territory, would follow its own path. Last week, both leaders went out of their way to emphasize linguistic harmony, even if tensions sometimes emerge over Kazakhstan’s increasing promotion of the Kazakh language. There is a significant ethnic Russian minority living in Kazakhstan. “One third of schoolchildren in our country are educated in Russian. We attach special importance to this issue. It is for this reason that I proposed the creation of the International Russian Language Organization,” Tokayev said. Putin thanked Tokayev for backing the use of the Russian language, “widely and freely,” in Kazakhstan. He said there are plans to open three Russian language schools in Kazakhstan, with Russian government support. Some social media posts claimed there was a diplomatic dustup between the two leaders, showing video of Putin´s “Russian-speaking country” remark followed by Tokayev speaking in Kazakh in an apparent pushback. However, the video appears to be spliced from different events. Putin is shown standing; Tokayev is seated. Furthermore, the Kremlin transcript shows that Putin made the remark at a solo news conference. That’s What It Says, But… The treaty of a regional security group that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia says members must provide military and other help to any member subjected to “aggression by any state or group of states.” Does that mean members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO, should get behind Russia in its war against Western-backed Ukraine? After all, Putin says Russia is a target of Ukrainian and Western aggression, even if some dispute the assertion because he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Putin was asked the question on Thursday after a state visit to Kazakhstan and a meeting of the regional security group in Astana. Each security group member “stands ready to act in accordance with...

CSTO Ukraine Russia's War Putin

On Kazakhstan Trip, Putin Touts Russian Military Power

Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed a regional security group meeting in Kazakhstan on Thursday about Russia’s latest hypersonic missile system and possible plans to strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv, a step that would represent another escalation after nearly three years of war in Western-backed Ukraine. Putin’s speech to key figures in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, showcased the military might of Russia, which has nevertheless suffered significant losses during the war. It was delivered to an audience that, with the exception of Russian ally Belarus, has largely tried to stay on the sidelines of the conflict. The Russian-led security organization, known by its acronym CSTO, includes five other post-Soviet states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia. However, Armenia has effectively frozen its membership and its representatives were not present at the meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital. “Some of our colleagues have asked me to report extensively on the latest developments in the zone of conflict in Ukraine, the zone of the special military operation, in view of the recent developments,” Putin said, according to a Kremlin transcript. “Certainly, recognizing the importance of the ongoing events, I will gladly provide an update on the situation today, as I believe it is my duty to inform you about the latest events.” Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, described recent Russian strikes as a response to Ukraine’s use of Western weapon systems, including ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions. He referred to a test of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile “in its non-nuclear configuration” in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21, a strike that intensified concerns about nuclear escalation by Russia. Some U.S. officials, however, believe the use of nuclear weapons by Russia remains unlikely, even if the situation is dangerous. “Military and technical experts note that when used in a concentrated, massive strike – using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously – the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon,” Putin said. He clarified that the Oreshnik is not deemed to be a weapon of mass destruction because of its “exceptional precision” and because it is not delivering a nuclear warhead, meaning there is no radiation. Production of the Oreshnik system is ongoing and Russia might further use it in combat, Putin said. He also said the Russian military is identifying more strike targets in Ukraine. “These may include military installations, defense industry sites, or decision-making centers” in the Ukrainian capital, he said. There were no immediate public reactions by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and other regional leaders to Putin’s remarks. Tokayev has previously said that Russia is “militarily invincible” and that negotiations are the only way to end the conflict. A Gallup poll conducted in Ukraine this year concluded that about half of Ukrainians want a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, an increase since the beginning of the conflict. However, it’s not clear on what exact terms they would accept a deal with Putin, who says Ukraine is part of Russia. There is also uncertainty about how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will deal with the war when...

Russia Politics Ukraine Potential Nuclear Partners Bilateral Cooperation Multi-vector Foreign Policy Economic Cooperation Foreign Affairs International Diplomacy Putin

Geopolitical Posturing or Genuine Partnership? Key Takeaways from Putin’s Trip to Kazakhstan

On November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for a state visit. He was met at the airport by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The streets of Astana, along Putin’s motorcade route, were adorned with Russian flags, creating a ceremonial backdrop for a meeting touted as a symbol of strategic partnership between the two nations. At the Akorda Presidential Palace, Tokayev hosted a reception for Putin that blended official decorum with cultural displays. The program featured children reciting poetry and participation in a collaborative painting led by renowned Kazakh artist Assol (Asel Sabyrzhankyzy), who named the artwork Bridge of Friendship and presented it to Putin. However, not all Kazakhstanis welcomed the visit with enthusiasm. Some citizens, concerned by Russia’s imperial overtones or sympathetic to Ukraine, expressed their dissent through an online flash mob. A banner at Astana Airport referring to Putin as “Your Excellency” sparked outrage among critics, who viewed it as excessive deference. Political analysts later clarified that the term has been consistently used for other high-level visitors to Kazakhstan. Putin’s state visit, described as a rare diplomatic event typically occurring once per presidential term, was notably proposed by Kazakhstan. During a press briefing, Putin remarked, “At your suggestion, this visit was given the status of a state visit, but I want to note that the solemn protocol did not prevent us from working productively, as is characteristic of our meetings.” Heightened Security Amid Geopolitical Tensions The visit came against the backdrop of growing geopolitical instability. Less than a week earlier, on November 21, Tokayev had instructed government agencies to heighten security following Russia’s test of the Oreshnik ballistic system in Ukraine. This context, paired with the substantial security measures surrounding the state visit, led observers to speculate that Russia’s own security concerns may have influenced the format. The official discussions were framed by frequent references to “strategic partnership” and the “geopolitical situation.” These themes culminated in a joint declaration entitled “Joint Statement of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the President of the Russian Federation on Deepening Strategic Partnership in the New Global Order.” The statement, structured in three main sections, outlined bilateral cooperation in political, economic, and security domains. Ambiguities in Counter-Terrorism and Political Statements The declaration’s political section raised some eyebrows, particularly the clause condemning recent “terrorist acts” in Russia and pledging closer intelligence cooperation to combat such threats. Questions remain over whether Kazakhstan considers only incidents like the Crocus City Hall attack on the outskirts of Moscow as terrorism, or whether the term extends to military actions tied to the Ukraine conflict. Another noteworthy point was the denunciation of “irresponsible statements” by public figures that undermine mutual respect between the two nations. This has been a sensitive issue for Kazakhstan, which has frequently faced provocative rhetoric from Russian propagandists and certain lawmakers. Tokayev himself rebuffed such remarks at the 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, firmly rejecting recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Economic Vision and Strategic Transport The economic...