Caspian Region - The Times Of Central Asia

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High Methane Emissions May Hinder Turkmenistan’s Gas Exports to Europe

High methane emissions could pose a significant obstacle to Turkmenistan’s entry into the European gas market, according to an updated report by the U.S. Department of Energy, published on February 6. The main findings of the study were summarized by Eurasia Review on February 19. The report, which examines oil and gas production in the Caspian region, notes that four countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, account for 3% of global energy production. Turkmenistan’s Gas Reserves and Export Ambitions According to the report, Turkmenistan ranks fifth worldwide in natural gas reserves, estimated at 400 trillion cubic feet in 2025. In 2023, the country set a record by producing 3.0 trillion cubic feet of dry natural gas, the highest level since official statistics began in 1992. Currently, Turkmenistan’s primary gas exports are directed to China, but Ashgabat is seeking to expand its market reach, including potential supply routes through Afghanistan. However, the U.S. Department of Energy warns that excessive methane emissions from Turkmenistan’s fields could complicate access to the European market via the Trans-Caspian pipeline. In terms of oil reserves, Turkmenistan holds a relatively modest 600 million barrels, with an average daily production of 275,000 barrels in 2024. Diversification Efforts and New Export Deals Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is taking steps to diversify its export destinations. Gas supplies to Turkey are set to begin on March 1. During a phone call on February 10, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov informed Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that an agreement had been reached to transit gas through Iran under a swap supply arrangement with Turkish energy company BOTAŞ. Efforts to Reduce Methane Emissions Turkmenistan has also been actively engaging in international initiatives to curb methane emissions. On December 1, 2023, the country joined the Global Methane Pledge (GMP), an initiative aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In November 2024, Bloomberg reported that the state-owned Turkmengaz plans to hire specialists to measure methane emissions more accurately and is preparing a tender for emission monitoring. That same month, the U.S. Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) released satellite data showing that methane leakage from oil and gas fields in Turkmenistan, the U.S., and Venezuela is significantly higher than official ground-based measurements suggest.

Ukraine Oil and Gas Caspian Region Russia's War incident Drone Attack Caspian Pipeline

Ukraine’s Drone Strike on Russian Oil Hub Sparks Concerns Over Kazakhstan’s Energy Security

On February 17, seven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) attacked an oil transportation facility of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), targeting the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Russia. Following the attack, reports emerged that the volume of oil pumped from Kazakhstan through the CPC could decrease by 30% for a period of one and a half to two months. Conflicting Reports on the Impact On February 18, Ukraine officially confirmed the strike. "Yesterday, the Ukrainian defense forces carried out a pinpoint strike on strategic facilities of the military and fuel and energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation... The Kropotkinskaya and Andriapol oil pumping stations, which played a key role in transporting fuel for the occupiers, were hit. After the strike, they were put out of action, significantly complicating the logistics of fuel supplies to the aggressor," the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated. Shortly after, Transneft, the Russian shareholder in the CPC, warned that oil pumping volumes from Kazakhstan could drop by approximately 30% due to the damage. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak provided an even bleaker assessment. During a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, he stated: "We see a decrease in pumping volumes by about 30 - 40% compared to levels before the drone attack." Novak estimated that restoring the CPC infrastructure would take "several months, at least," citing the need to replace damaged Western-made equipment, including Siemens gas turbines. However, later that day, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy issued a statement disputing these claims. "Currently, there are no restrictions on Kazakh oil shipments via the CPC, and acceptance is proceeding as scheduled," the ministry said. Despite this, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov framed the attack as a direct assault on Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure. Expert Perspectives: Overreaction or Serious Threat? While officials issued conflicting statements, financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov urged against panic. Writing on his Telegram channel ArtFinanze, he dismissed talk of a 30% reduction in pumping volumes as an "overreaction." However, he acknowledged that the attack exposed the risks of Kazakhstan’s reliance on foreign transit routes. "Geopolitical and other risks when exporting through third countries can easily double. It’s too early to panic; there are few catastrophic scenarios at this stage. But if attacks on infrastructure continue, it will become increasingly difficult to protect the underwater pipeline system, especially considering the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s recent losses. Kazakhstan’s oil facilities have been largely spared so far, but there’s no guarantee this will continue. Contrary to popular belief, the fact that companies like Chevron are involved won’t deter anyone; on the contrary, such infrastructure can be used to exert pressure on entire countries," he warned. Kazakhstan’s Dilemma: Dependence on Russian Routes While experts downplay immediate consequences, Kazakhstan’s vulnerability is undeniable. Calls to boost domestic petrochemical production to reduce dependence on foreign pipelines remain largely aspirational. Meanwhile, efforts to diversify oil export routes have yielded little progress. Currently, 93% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through Russian territory, leaving the country with limited alternatives: Caspian Pipeline Consortium...

Caspian Pipeline Drone Attack incident Caspian Region

Drone Attack on Caspian Pipeline Consortium Station: Implications for Kazakhstan

On February 17, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Russia's Krasnodar region. According to an official CPC statement, the attack involved seven drones armed with explosives and metal shrapnel. The strikes occurred at intervals, which, according to experts, suggests an intent not only to disable the facility but also to endanger personnel. Despite this, no casualties were reported. Quick action by CPC employees prevented an oil spill, though the station was taken out of operation. A commission led by CPC General Director Nikolay Gorban arrived at the site to assess the damage and determine a timeline for repairs. Currently, oil transportation along the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline is operating at reduced capacity, bypassing the Kropotkinskaya station. CPC’s international shareholders, including companies from the United States and Europe, have been informed of the attack and its consequences. Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies in Berlin, commented on the incident via his Telegram channel, noting that Ukraine had previously avoided targeting CPC infrastructure in Russia to avoid harming Kazakhstan and its Western partners, such as Chevron, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Eni. However, he said this latest attack underscores Kazakhstan's vulnerability, as the country relies on the CPC pipeline for 80% of its oil exports. "Whatever the consequences and reactions to this episode, it reminds Kazakhstan once again of its deep dependence on the CPC pipeline; through it, Astana can be pressured both by Russia and, as we now see, by others," Umarov wrote. The Kropotkinskaya station is the largest CPC oil pumping facility in Russia, located in Krasnodar Krai. However, according to the TCA, no Kazakh oil passes through this station. This is not the first time drones, presumably Ukrainian, have targeted infrastructure related to Kazakh oil exports via Russian territory. In December 2023, drones struck a loading point of the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Bryansk region, a key route for Kazakh oil exports to Europe.

EAEU Economic Cooperation Caspian Region Iran

Iran Expands Economic Cooperation with EAEU and Kazakhstan

In recent years, Iran has strengthened its trade, economic, and transport ties with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), an economic bloc comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. In December 2024, Iran was granted observer status in the EAEU, joining Cuba and Uzbekistan as the bloc’s third observer state. This status allows Iran to attend EAEU meetings and access non-confidential documents but does not grant decision-making rights. A year earlier, in December 2023, the EAEU and Iran signed a full Free Trade Agreement (FTA), establishing duty-free trade for 90% of goods and covering more than 95% of mutual trade between the parties. According to official statistics, the EAEU plays a significant role in Iran's foreign trade. In 2023, the bloc accounted for 10.1% of Iran’s exports, making it Iran’s third-largest trading partner after China (30.4%) and Turkey (14.5%). [caption id="attachment_28237" align="aligncenter" width="800"] Image: Marko Bukorovic[/caption] Strengthening Ties with Kazakhstan Iran has also worked to deepen bilateral cooperation with EAEU members, particularly Kazakhstan. On January 30, Iranian First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref visited Almaty to attend a meeting of EAEU prime ministers. He also held bilateral talks with Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, focusing on expanding trade, economic, agricultural, transport, and logistics cooperation. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, in the first eleven months of 2024, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Iran reached $296 million, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Kazakhstan’s exports to Iran rose by 29.1% to $100.6 million. Bektenov described Iran as a friendly neighbor in the Caspian region and emphasized Kazakhstan’s interest in diversifying and increasing exports to Iran. The country has identified 60 types of goods worth over $132 million for potential export and is prepared to meet Iran’s demand for grain products, including wheat and barley. Expanding Transport and Logistics Cooperation Discussions also covered transport and logistics cooperation, with a focus on increasing cargo traffic along the North-South Corridor, which connects Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Both sides expressed interest in expanding transit capacity and modernizing key port terminals in Kazakhstan (Aktau and Kuryk) and Iran (Anzali and Amirabad). The Iranian Vice President stressed the geographic and economic importance of the Iran-Kazakhstan partnership and reaffirmed both countries’ commitment to increasing bilateral trade to $3 billion annually.

oil export KazMunayGas Caspian Region Oil and Gas Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan Ships First Batch of Kashagan Oil to Baku

Kazakhstan has shipped its first batch of oil from the Kashagan field to the Azerbaijani port of Baku, marking a significant step in the country’s efforts to diversify its export routes. The shipment was confirmed by the national oil company KazMunayGas (KMG). The tanker Taraz, carrying Kashagan oil, departed from the port of Aktau and is en route to Azerbaijan. Upon arrival in Baku, the oil will be transported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline system to the Mediterranean Sea. The export operation is being carried out by KMG Kashagan B.V., a subsidiary of JSC NC KazMunayGas, which manages Kazakhstan’s share in the North Caspian Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). This initiative aligns with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s directive for KazMunayGas to develop alternative hydrocarbon export routes. The shipment also advances the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Route, a vital corridor for Kazakhstan’s oil exports. In 2022, KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR signed a general agreement to enable the transit of Kazakh oil. In March 2024, the two parties finalized plans for a phased increase in deliveries through Azerbaijan. Under the agreement, annual transit volumes are expected to reach 2.2 million tons. KMG Kashagan B.V., which holds a 16.88% stake in the North Caspian PSA, represents Kazakhstan’s interests in the North Caspian Project (NCP). The company is responsible for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Caspian Sea, as well as the independent transportation and sale of its production share under the PSA’s terms. Energy analysts highlight that diversifying export routes will help Kazakhstan reduce its reliance on traditional oil supply corridors, thereby increasing flexibility and resilience in the face of global market volatility.

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NASA Discovers ‘Ghost’ Island in the Caspian Sea

NASA satellites have detected a fascinating phenomenon in the Caspian Sea: the temporary formation of an island following the eruption of the Kumani mud volcano. According to data from NASA's Earth Observatory, the island emerged in early 2023 but had almost completely disappeared by the end of 2024, earning it the nickname “ghost island.” The island was first observed using Landsat 8 and 9 satellite imagery in January 2023, shortly after the volcano erupted. It measured up to 400 meters wide and was accompanied by a visible sedimentary plume extending from its surface. However, by late 2024, the island had diminished significantly, leaving only faint traces of its existence. The Kumani mud volcano, located 25 kilometers off the eastern coast of Azerbaijan, is no stranger to such occurrences. Since its first recorded eruption in 1861, the volcano has periodically created temporary islands, which vanish after short periods. Mud volcanoes like Kumani are common in regions with active tectonic activity. They eject high-pressure mixtures of water, gas, and sediment, forming landmasses that are often unstable and short-lived. The Caspian region is notable for its high concentration of mud volcanoes, with more than 300 such formations in Azerbaijan and on the Caspian Sea shelf. Many of these volcanoes emit combustible gases, particularly methane, which has drawn the interest of scientists and geologists. The connection between these mud volcanoes and the hydrocarbon systems of the South Caspian Basin makes them critical subjects for research. The emergence and disappearance of this “ghost” island in the Caspian Sea highlight how much remains to be understood about mud volcanoes. These transient landforms demonstrate the dynamic forces of nature and underscore the need for further exploration of geological processes occurring on the seafloor.