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TCA Interviews

Ukrainian Ambassador to Kazakhstan: “The War Will End This Year. I Truly Believe In That.”

As the war between Russia and Ukraine approaches its fifth year, diplomatic efforts to reshape trade routes, energy flows, and regional partnerships are intensifying far beyond the battlefield. For Ukraine, Central Asia has emerged as an increasingly important economic and logistical partner, particularly as Kyiv seeks alternatives to disrupted transport corridors and supply chains. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Viсtor Mayko, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Kazakhstan, about the prospects for deeper economic cooperation with Central Asia, the role of the Middle Corridor, energy transit challenges in the Caspian region, Kyiv’s expectations for international support, and a possible path toward ending the war. Trade and Economic Prospects in Central Asia TCA: Mr. Ambassador, what are the prospects for deepening trade and economic partnerships between Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and wider Central Asia? Which sectors offer the greatest potential for cooperation? Ambassador Mayko: Deepening trade and economic ties between Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries is not merely a prospect; it is a necessity dictated by global economic trends. Kazakhstan leads the region economically, with a GDP exceeding $300 billion. It is on a trajectory to join the G20 within 5 to 10 years. The United States, recognizing this potential, has invited Kazakhstan to the upcoming G20 meeting in the U.S., demonstrating Kazakhstan’s rising global significance. Ukraine and Kazakhstan’s economies are complementary. Ukraine brings experience in agricultural technology, mechanical engineering, IT, and processing, while Kazakhstan contributes resource strength, industrial capacity, and logistics. Promising areas for cooperation include agro-industrial development, from crop production to digitalized processing; industrial cooperation through equipment supply and joint production; logistics and infrastructure aimed at strengthening transport corridors; and energy and IT projects focused on efficiency and network modernization. We are already transitioning from theory to action. A major business delegation from Ukraine will visit Kazakhstan this year. We also anticipate another meeting of the Joint Ukrainian-Kazakh Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, which is crucial for removing barriers and initiating new projects. Ukraine’s presence in Kazakhstan’s economy has historically been significant. If not for the war and resulting transport disruptions, I believe our mutual trade could have reached $10 billion. Ukrainian machinery still accounts for a substantial portion of Kazakhstan’s industrial base, especially in regions such as Karaganda, Aktau, and Pavlodar, though much of this equipment now requires modernization. Another promising area is mineral resource development. Ukraine has the scientific and practical base to contribute meaningfully to this sector. Turkmenistan’s earlier collaboration with Ukrainian firms in revitalizing depleted wells illustrates our potential. Wells deemed exhausted by older technologies yielded hundreds of thousands of tons of oil under Ukrainian management. This successful model can be applied in Kazakhstan, one of the EU’s top three oil suppliers. Transport Infrastructure and the Middle Corridor TCA: How is cooperation in the transport sector developing, especially regarding the Middle Corridor? Are there any potential plans for joint infrastructure projects? Ambassador Mayko: Russia’s full-scale aggression disrupted Ukraine’s previous logistics routes. Today, we prioritize alternatives like the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the “Middle Corridor”, as a...

Energy Security

Central Asia Considers Single Gas Ring to Link Regional Energy Systems

A proposal to connect the five Central Asian capitals into a unified, synchronized gas network has generated widespread debate among regional energy experts following a major industry forum in Tashkent. The idea, referred to as the “Central Asia Gas Ring,” was introduced by Kazakh oil and gas analyst Askar Ismailov during the Central Asia Oil & Gas Forum in early November. An analysis of the proposal was later published by the Uzbek outlet Upl.uz, citing assessments from regional and international experts. The concept envisions physically linking the gas transportation systems of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan into an integrated regional ring, modeled on the existing Central Asian Unified Power System, which already enables cross-border electricity coordination. According to Ismailov, natural gas should be seen not only as a tradable resource but as a strategic instrument for regional integration and energy security, especially in the context of growing geopolitical volatility. Experts cited by Upl.uz argue that a gas ring could help countries better manage seasonal fluctuations in demand and reduce the risk of widespread energy shortages. Recent winter blackouts, particularly in Uzbekistan, have heightened concerns about supply resilience. The proposed system could also ensure more stable gas flows to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which lack significant domestic hydrocarbon resources and frequently experience shortages. The initiative has attracted interest beyond Central Asia. Valérie Ducrot, head of the Global Gas Center, described the plan as a new model of energy cooperation that could attract international investment if the five participating states align their energy policies. Research groups such as SPIK and SpecialEurasia, also cited in the analysis, view the project as a potential cornerstone of regional infrastructure, aligning national interests around shared goals for stability and integration. Economic incentives vary across the region. For Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, the ring could provide enhanced flexibility in export routes and pricing mechanisms. For gas-dependent Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the proposal promises greater energy security, seen as essential for long-term economic and social development. External stakeholders, including China and the European Union, are expected to show interest in financing the project, while Russia is likely to seek continued influence over pricing structures and logistics. Ismailov estimates the total cost at between $4 billion and $5 billion, with most of the funding needed for modernization of aging Soviet-era pipelines and construction of select new infrastructure segments. While Upl.uz notes that technical and political hurdles remain, the proposal highlights growing momentum toward collective energy solutions in Central Asia.

Energy cooperation

Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan Strengthen Energy Ties as Kambarata-1 Project Advances

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are deepening their energy partnership as progress continues on the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), one of Central Asia’s most ambitious infrastructure projects. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev in Tashkent to discuss regional energy cooperation, according to Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg, citing the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy. The talks focused on strengthening strategic ties between the two countries, with particular emphasis on hydropower development. Both sides acknowledged the growing momentum in bilateral relations and reaffirmed their commitment to joint regional energy initiatives. Mirziyoyev underscored the importance of collaborative water and energy projects, identifying Kambarata-1 as a top priority for all three participating countries, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. “For the effective use and joint management of the region’s hydropower potential, next year we will begin financing the construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant together with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan,” Mirziyoyev said, as quoted by the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy. He also expressed gratitude to Ibrayev and representatives from major energy companies in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Azerbaijan for supporting Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract investment and adopt advanced energy technologies. The Kambarata-1 project is a trilateral initiative involving Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. With a projected cost of $4.2 billion, the venture has already secured $5.6 billion in committed financing from international financial institutions, according to Uzbek Energy Minister Jorabek Mirzamahmudov. Mirzamahmudov noted that the most recent trilateral ministerial meeting took place in Brussels in late September, coordinated by the World Bank. The event brought together representatives from 10 major financial institutions, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the OPEC Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. Despite strong financial and political backing, the project faces unresolved technical concerns. At a recent parliamentary session in Bishkek, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, president of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, warned that seismic microzonation, a critical safety assessment, has not yet been conducted at the planned construction site. Kambarata-1 is expected to have an installed capacity of 1,860 MW, a reservoir volume of 4.5 billion cubic meters, and a dam height of 256 meters. The facility will house four turbines capable of producing over 5.5 billion kWh of electricity annually. Under the current ownership structure, Kyrgyzstan will hold a 34% stake in the project, while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will each hold 33%.

Energy

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Sign Trilateral Deal on Water and Energy Cooperation

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have signed a trilateral protocol on water and energy cooperation, covering the upcoming winter heating period and the 2026 agricultural season. The agreement was formalized at a meeting of the countries’ energy and water ministers held in Almaty on November 22. With water levels at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir critically low, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have agreed to supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan during the winter months. This will allow Kyrgyzstan to reduce electricity generation during peak heating demand and conserve water in the Toktogul Reservoir. The stored water will later be released downstream to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the 2026 growing season to ensure consistent irrigation for farmland in their southern regions. The Toktogul HPP, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power station, supplying about 40% of the country’s electricity. It plays a dual role: meeting domestic energy needs and regulating water flows critical to downstream agricultural systems. In winter, Kyrgyzstan typically ramps up power output to meet heating demand, often at the expense of reservoir levels, which can compromise irrigation capacity the following spring. Under the new protocol, Uzbekistan has also pledged to support regional electricity balancing and ensure transit capacity. Earlier, the three countries agreed to facilitate cross-border electricity flows, including Russian electricity transiting to Kyrgyzstan via Kazakhstan, and Turkmen electricity reaching Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s transmission grid. Participants in the Almaty meeting emphasized that the trilateral agreement reflects a spirit of good neighborliness and is aimed at enhancing regional energy security and stability. The agreement is particularly critical for Kyrgyzstan, which faces persistent electricity shortages, especially during the winter when electric heating is widely used. On November 18, Kyrgyzstan completed the full modernization of the Toktogul HPP, with the commissioning of its fourth generating unit. The upgrade raised the facility’s total capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. In parallel, Kyrgyzstan is advancing construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP, a major regional project being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 will have a generation capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Energy

Uzbekistan and SOCAR Advance $2 Billion Ustyurt Energy Project

Uzbekistan’s Minister of Energy, Jorabek Mirzamahmudov, has outlined the country’s deepening energy cooperation with Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, highlighting progress on a recently signed Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) for the Ustyurt region and broader plans in petrochemicals and electricity trade. In an interview with Azerbaijani media outlet Report, Mirzamahmudov confirmed that Uzbekistan, SOCAR, and Uzbekneftegaz have already established a joint operating company to oversee the Ustyurt project. Fieldwork is expected to accelerate soon, with seismic surveys covering over 3,000 linear kilometers set to begin before year-end, followed by the drilling of the first exploration well. The PSA structure splits ownership equally between the state and investors, with SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz as the primary partners. British energy major BP has shown interest and is in preliminary discussions to join the consortium. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated in August that SOCAR had commenced work at an Uzbek oil field following the contract signing. He expressed optimism about potential discoveries within the next one to two years. Mirzamahmudov acknowledged that earlier data on Ustyurt had not suggested large hydrocarbon reserves but said that modern interpretation techniques have revealed greater potential. While refraining from early reserve estimates, he said SOCAR specialists are optimistic about promising oil indicators. If confirmed, Uzbekistan plans to build a new refinery. Total investment in the Ustyurt project is projected at around $2 billion. The minister said SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz would finance the project’s initial stages, with BP possibly joining later. He did not rule out future collaboration with Azerbaijan on major fields like Shah Deniz or Absheron but emphasized that Uzbekistan’s current priority is increasing domestic production. In the long term, joint ventures in third countries are also being considered. Trans-Caspian Energy and Renewables Push Mirzamahmudov also discussed the proposed trans-Caspian high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable project aimed at exporting renewable energy to Europe. A joint venture involving Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan has already been formed. The Asian Development Bank is assisting in selecting a consultant for the project’s feasibility study. Several countries, including Saudi Arabia, have expressed interest. Uzbekistan currently generates more than 20% of its electricity from renewables and aims to increase that share to 54% by 2030. In the Ustyurt region alone, wind projects totaling over 2.5 GW are under development, with the first 100 MW already operational. The government also plans to deploy hybrid wind-solar-storage systems with a minimum capacity of 5 GW. Localization and Petrochemical Cooperation Mirzamahmudov noted that future oil and gas processing facilities could be localized in special economic zones in Bukhara, Karakalpakstan, and Khorezm, which are currently being evaluated for infrastructure and logistics readiness. A joint venture with SOCAR Trading is already exporting polymer products, and ongoing discussions aim to expand cooperation in fuel production and fertilizer manufacturing.

Bilateral Relations Foreign Investment Critical Minerals Strategic Partnership Economic Cooperation critical raw materials Energy cooperation Energy Sector C5+1 Summit U.S.-Uzbekistan Relations visa-free Methanol Island Trade agreements

U.S. and Uzbekistan Sign Landmark Economic and Strategic Agreements

The United States and Uzbekistan are deepening their economic and technological partnership. Following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, the U.S. State Department announced a sweeping package of agreements, described as among the most significant in the history of bilateral relations in both investment and strategic scope. High-Level Business Engagements During his Washington visit, President Mirziyoyev held talks with representatives from major American corporations, investment funds, and financial institutions. The meeting was attended by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Special Assistant to the President Ricky Gill, Special Assistant to the President Ricky Gill, Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Vaden, and executives from companies such as Traxys, FLSmidth, McKinsey, Meta, Google, Amazon, Boeing, Air Products, Axiom Space, Cove Capital, Freeport-McMoRan, Orion CMC, Cargill Cotton, John Deere, Honeywell, Valmont Industries, and Flowserve Corporation. Opening the event, Mirziyoyev highlighted that trade between Uzbekistan and the U.S. has quadrupled over the past eight years, and more than 300 American companies are now operating in the country. He added that this is just the beginning of a new era in economic cooperation. Key strategic goals were outlined: by 2030, Uzbekistan aims to develop a new-generation energy system with 18-20 GW of renewable capacity, more than half of it sourced from solar and wind. In this context, the two countries plan to jointly develop and process critical minerals such as uranium, copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and graphite, establishing resilient supply chains and leveraging U.S. processing technologies. Infrastructure is another major focus. Uzbekistan intends to invest over $12 billion by 2030 to modernize roads, railways, terminals, and airports. Digital cooperation is also expanding. Projects with Google, Meta, and NVIDIA include the launch of Apple Pay and Google Pay, the creation of a Digital Academy, and the development of startup hubs. These initiatives are expected to be supported by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the U.S. Exim Bank. Mirziyoyev reaffirmed his personal commitment to supporting American investment, stressing that Uzbekistan remains a stable and favorable destination for foreign businesses. Securing Access to Strategic Raw Materials Washington’s primary interest lies in critical minerals. The U.S. will gain priority access to joint mining projects and exclusive access to geological data on rare earth and other strategically significant elements. This move is part of a broader U.S. effort to diversify global sources of inputs vital to defense, green energy, and other high-tech sectors. The two countries are also preparing a $400 million investment package to develop sustainable supply chains for critical and rare earth minerals. For Uzbekistan, this represents a key step toward integration into global value chains and reduced reliance on limited partners. Energy Cooperation: A Role for Small Modular Reactors Uzbekistan plans to acquire American small modular reactors (SMRs), a technology increasingly favored by emerging economies for its scalability and relatively low upfront costs. Interest in SMRs has grown following the 2025 approval of the upgraded NuScale Power Module (77 MW), and Uzbekistan may become one of the first countries in...