Investment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Kazakhstan Projects Strong GDP Growth as Economy Nears 300 Billion Dollars in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy is entering a new phase of growth. By the end of 2025, the country’s gross domestic product is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced at a national award ceremony for the Altyn Sapa, Paryz, and Best Product of Kazakhstan prizes. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan’s GDP has shown consistent growth in absolute terms, with the exception of the pandemic year of 2020, when the economy contracted to $171.1 billion. Since then, the country has reached new historical highs each year, from $197.1 billion in 2021 to $288.41 billion in 2024. In 2025, growth is expected to reach a record level.The president noted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25 percent, outpacing growth in the extractive sector. “Economic growth is expected to exceed 6% this year,” Tokayev said. “Moreover, GDP is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time” The president highlighted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25%, outpacing the growth of the extractive sector. Investments in fixed capital grew by 70% over the same period, and labor productivity rose by 40%. As a result, non-resource exports doubled, the number of exporters tripled, and the geography of supply expanded to 140 countries. According to Tokayev, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) now account for 40% of GDP and remain one of the most dynamic segments of the economy. “Over the past five years, the number of SMEs has increased by 1.5 times, and their output by 2.5 times. Today, 4.5 million people work in the business sector, almost half of the country’s employed population,” the president said. Tokayev also placed particular emphasis on the finalization of certain provisions in the new Tax Code, which is set to take effect in 2026. The president acknowledged that he had received a large number of appeals from entrepreneurs and instructed the government to carefully review the most problematic provisions. “It is important to understand that the sustainable development of entrepreneurship is based on the fulfillment of mutual obligations: the state creates the climate, and businesses pay taxes. The government must find a reasonable balance, there is no other option,” he stated. The president also called for continued development of the country’s digital business ecosystem to enhance transparency and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Kazakhstan plans to significantly increase investment in its economy over the next five years, with the goal of nearly tripling its volume by 2029.

Turkic Investment Fund

Turkic Investment Fund to Launch Operations in Early 2026

At a meeting held in Bishkek on December 5, the Board of Governors of the Turkic Investment Fund (TIF) announced that the Fund will begin its operational activities in the first quarter of 2026. With an initial authorized capital of 500 million dollars and a potential increase to 1.5 billion dollars, the TIF is the first dedicated financial institution jointly established by the Turkic states. Its mission is to enhance economic cooperation, boost intra-regional trade, and support sustainable development across the Turkic world. Headquartered in Istanbul, the Fund will finance major joint projects among member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The OTS, founded in 2009, includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Hungary and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus participate as observer states. The TIF was officially established during an extraordinary OTS summit in Ankara in March 2023, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan as founding members. Hungary joined in June 2024, while Turkmenistan maintains observer status. According to the Board of Governors, the institutional infrastructure required for TIF operations was largely completed in 2025, and preparatory work on a pipeline of investment projects is currently underway. The Board emphasized that the decision to initiate operations reflects growing expectations among member states for the Fund to begin allocating resources and advancing strategic initiatives. During the Bishkek meeting, Uzbekistan’s representative, Laziz Kudratov, Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade, was elected Chairman of the TIF Board of Governors. The Fund will pursue its mandate by offering preferential loans, co-financing projects alongside international financial institutions, and attracting private investment into key sectors of the region’s economies. Following the inaugural meeting of the TIF Board in Istanbul in May 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Finance projected that the combined economic output of the Turkic states would reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2024, with a population of approximately 178 million.

energy saving

EBRD and EU Allocate €43 Million to Modernize Tajikistan’s Power Grid

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Union have announced a joint initiative to enhance the reliability and transparency of Tajikistan’s electricity distribution system. Under the agreement, a €43 million financing package will support the state-owned electricity distributor Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq (STB). The funding aims to reduce technical losses and improve efficiency by upgrading essential infrastructure. The “Energy Loss Reduction” project was officially signed on December 4 at Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance. The agreement was endorsed by Minister of Finance Faiziddin Kahhorzoda and the EBRD’s permanent representative in Tajikistan, Holger Wiefel. The project is backed by €28 million in sovereign loans from the EBRD and €15 million in EU grants via the Asia-Pacific Investment Fund. Funds will be directed toward upgrading billing systems and installing new electricity metering equipment in nine cities across the Sughd and Khatlon regions. These areas are among the most affected by outdated infrastructure, which contributes to technical power losses, inaccurate metering, and the reduced financial viability of STB. The modernization program includes digitizing STB’s core operations and implementing cybersecurity measures to safeguard the national power grid. Technical assistance from both the EU and EBRD will support the rollout of these reforms. A key component of the initiative is human capital development. Specialized training programs on sustainable technologies and modern energy sector skills will be offered, with a focus on youth and women. This is intended to enhance the qualifications of local professionals and strengthen the regional labor market. The EBRD remains one of Tajikistan’s most significant international investors. To date, the bank has invested more than €1 billion across 188 projects in various sectors. The new energy initiative reflects the continued strategic role of international partners in supporting the modernization of Tajikistan’s critical infrastructure.

Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Investment

Kyrgyzstan’s New Investment Law Favors Large-Scale Investors

Kyrgyzstan has enacted a new investment law offering substantial benefits to major investors, both foreign and domestic. Under the Law “On Investments in the Kyrgyz Republic,” investors who commit at least $10 million and possess a strong international reputation and track record in large-scale projects may now sign individual investment agreements directly with the Cabinet of Ministers, according to the National Investment Agency under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic. These agreements grant investors access to a suite of incentives, including tax and customs benefits, visa support for key personnel, and assistance with selecting and registering land plots for investment projects. The initiative aims to boost foreign direct investment by attracting high-caliber investors. President Sadyr Japarov signed the law on August 14, 2025. It is intended to create a more transparent and competitive investment climate and strengthen institutional protections for businesses. The legislation defines the state’s investment policy principles, guarantees the protection of investor rights, and introduces mechanisms to safeguard those interests. It also aligns with the presidential decree “On the National Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic until 2026,” which sets out key national targets: Average annual economic growth of 5% GDP per capita of at least $1,500 Unemployment rate reduced to 5% Annual foreign direct investment inflow of at least 13% of GDP With this legal framework, Kyrgyzstan aims to position itself as a stable, predictable partner for investors and as an emerging hub for investment in Central Asia.

Investment

Kyrgyzstan Sees Rising Pakistani Investment Amid Expanding Economic Partnership

Foreign direct investment (FDI) from Pakistan in Kyrgyzstan has more than doubled over the past five years, rising from $2 million in 2020 to $4.6 million in 2024, according to the National Investment Agency. A sharp spike occurred in 2023, when Pakistani FDI reached $6.9 million, reflecting growing interest from Pakistani businesses in the Kyrgyz market. “Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan demonstrate stable, positive dynamics of cooperation. The number of joint projects in agriculture, energy, trade, and the digital economy is expanding every year. We see high potential for further deepening of the partnership,” said Farkhat Iminov, Director of the National Investment Agency. Expanding Sectoral Cooperation On August 6, Iminov met with Marwan Alex Ayyash, Deputy Head of Mission at the Embassy of Pakistan in Kyrgyzstan. The Pakistani side expressed interest in developing cooperation in Kyrgyzstan’s mining sector, particularly in gold, tungsten, copper, and granite deposits. Earlier, on July 28, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan held the fifth meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, and Technical Cooperation. The key outcome was the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Kyrgyzstan’s National Investment Agency and Pakistan’s Investment Board. The agreement aims to implement joint projects and expand cooperation in priority sectors including tourism, energy, agriculture, industry, transport, and logistics.