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China and Russia Remain Kyrgyzstan’s Largest Foreign Investors

The National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan has released updated figures on foreign direct investment (FDI), revealing that China and Russia remained the country’s largest investors in 2024. According to the data published on April 15, Kyrgyzstan received $872.6 million in FDI in 2024, marking an increase from $844.9 million in 2023. China accounted for 23.9% of total FDI, followed by Russia with 22.7%, Turkey (10.2%), Luxembourg (8.8%), Kazakhstan (5.7%), the Netherlands (4.9%), and Azerbaijan (3.4%). The remaining 20.4% came from a mix of other countries. Compared to the previous year, Kyrgyzstan saw increased investment from Azerbaijan, Luxembourg, Germany, Turkey, the Netherlands, and Russia, while inflows from the UK, UAE, Kazakhstan, and China declined. Sector Breakdown The manufacturing sector attracted the largest share of foreign investment, receiving 33.2% of total FDI. This was followed by the financial sector (20.6%), wholesale and retail trade (18.7%), the mining industry (11.3%), and geological exploration (8.3%). Sharp Rise in Overall Investment The total volume of investments in fixed assets from all sources in the first quarter of 2025 reached 56.8 billion Kyrgyz som, reflecting a 90.6% increase year-on-year. This marks a significant acceleration compared to the 63.9% growth recorded during the same period in 2024. Officials attribute the sharp rise primarily to a 2.1-fold increase in domestic financing, while the volume of foreign investment in fixed assets during the same period decreased by 1.5 times compared to the first quarter of 2024.

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U.S. Cancels $2.5 Million Civic Engagement Grant for Uzbekistan

The U.S. State Department has canceled a $2.5 million grant intended to support civic engagement programs in Uzbekistan. The decision comes as part of a broader review of foreign aid expenditures initiated by U.S. Senator Marco Rubio and the Department of Government Efficiency. The Uzbekistan program was one of 139 foreign aid grants, totaling $215 million, that were recently scrapped. Other canceled initiatives include $5.2 million for a media diversity project in the United Kingdom, $2 million for newsroom sustainability efforts in Moldova, and nearly $1 million for women’s organizations in Mauritania. Additional cuts affected projects focused on disinformation, media freedom, and gender equity in Europe, Brazil, and North Africa. Continued U.S.-Uzbekistan Engagement Despite the funding cut, bilateral ties between the United States and Uzbekistan continue to strengthen. A draft of Uzbekistan’s 2025 government program, currently open for public discussion, outlines plans to deepen cooperation with Washington. These include a proposed high-level visit to the U.S. and the inaugural round of the Enhanced Strategic Partnership Dialogue, scheduled to take place in Tashkent. In March 2025, Uzbekistan's Ambassador to the U.S., Furkat Sidikov, also hosted a Congressional Breakfast, which focused on trade, investment, and U.S.-Uzbekistan relations. Over 300 American companies are currently operating in Uzbekistan Uzbekistan recently hosted the first EU-Central Asia summit in Samarkand, though the prospects of a U.S.-Central Asia C5+1 summit in 2025 remain uncertain. Daniel Runde, a senior official at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has emphasized the importance of a strong U.S.-Uzbek partnership. Runde noted that Uzbekistan plays a critical role in maintaining stability in Central Asia and in balancing the regional influence of Russia and China.

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Afghanistan and Central Asia: Pragmatism Instead of Illusions

“When the winds of change blow, some build walls, others build windmills.” — Chinese proverb Afghanistan remains one of the most complex and controversial spots on the map of Eurasia. After the Taliban came to power in 2021, it seemed the countries of Central Asia were faced with a choice: to distance themselves from the new regime or cautiously engage with it. However, it appears they have chosen a third path - pragmatic cooperation free from political intentions. Today, a window of opportunity is opening for the Central Asian states to reconsider their relationship with Afghanistan, not as a buffer zone or a source of instability, but as a potential element of a new regional architecture. At the same time, these countries are in no hurry to establish close political ties with Kabul. They avoid making declarations about "integrating" Afghanistan into Central Asia as a geopolitical region. Instead, the focus is on practical, rather than political or ideological, cooperation in areas such as transportation, trade, energy, food security, and humanitarian engagement. This pragmatic approach is shaping a new style of regional diplomacy, which is restrained yet determined. Against this backdrop, two key questions emerge: What role can Afghanistan play in regional development scenarios, and what steps are needed to minimize risks and maximize mutual benefit? Afghanistan After 2021: Between Stability and Dependency Since the end of the war and the Taliban’s return to power, Afghanistan has experienced a degree of relative order. However, the country remains economically and institutionally dependent on external assistance. Historically, Afghanistan has survived through subsidies and involvement in external conflicts, from the “Great Game” to the fight against international terrorism. Today, new actors, such as China, Russia, India, Turkey, and the Arab states, are stepping onto the stage alongside Russia, the United States, and the broader West. In the context of current geopolitical realities after the fall of its “democratic” regime, Afghanistan has found itself in a gap between the experiences of the past and a yet undetermined future. It has a unique opportunity to transcend its reputation as the “graveyard of empires” and determine its fate while simultaneously integrating into the international community. How the de facto authorities in Afghanistan handle this opportunity will not only shape the Afghan people's and the region's future but also influence the development of the entire global security paradigm. In parallel, the countries of Central Asian are building bilateral relations with Kabul on strictly pragmatic terms: participation in infrastructure and energy projects, food supply, and humanitarian aid. All of these steps have been taken without political commitments and without recognizing the regime. [caption id="attachment_30841" align="aligncenter" width="1062"] The border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan near Khorog, GBAO; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Geo-Economics and Logistics: Afghanistan as a Strategic Hub The regional reality in Central Asia is increasingly taking on a geo-economic dimension. The region is not only an arena for the interests of external powers but also a zone for developing transport, logistics, and energy networks in which Afghanistan is playing an...

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Central Asia: An Arena of Geopolitical Attraction

Though 2025 is not yet at its halfway point, Central Asia has already emerged as one of the primary stages of global diplomatic engagement. Rich in natural resources and strategically positioned between global powers, the region has attracted increasing interest from the European Union, China, Russia, and others. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and their neighbors are asserting greater agency, pursuing multi-vector foreign policies, and striving to capitalize on evolving geopolitical dynamics. EU-Central Asia: A New Chapter Amid regular annual meetings, a landmark event this year was the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit, held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on April 3-4. Leaders of all five Central Asian states met with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Discussions centered on infrastructure development, including the Trans-Caspian route, digitalization, energy security, and water resource management. The summit concluded with a pledge to sign an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. This meeting was facilitated by a reconfiguration of global alliances. U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariff policies and the evolving relationship between Washington and Moscow have led European leaders, unwilling to restore ties with Russia, to seek new partnerships. Central Asia, with its strategic position and investment potential, is increasingly appealing. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the region’s economic leaders, are particularly eager to attract foreign capital. The EU represents a possible source, though Russian analysts remain skeptical about Europe’s ability to dislodge Russian and Chinese influence. For instance, Mikhail Neizhmakov of the Russian Agency for Political and Economic Communications noted that while von der Leyen spoke of a €12 billion Global Gateway investment package, China is the largest exporter of investment in the Eurasian region, with accumulated direct investment of $58.6 billion at the end of the first half of 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank. Security Discourse and Russian Narratives In addition to the EU summit, the region hosted other key diplomatic events, such as the Digital Forum in Almaty earlier this year, which was attended by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Another major gathering was the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers, held on April 11, also in Almaty. Ministers approved a 2025 consultation plan and adopted joint statements on regional security, humanitarian cooperation, and opposition to unilateral sanctions. Kazakhstan: A Regional Diplomatic Hub Kazakhstan has so far distinguished itself as Central Asia’s foremost diplomatic player in 2025, hosting high-level visits and spearheading regional engagement. In January, Prime Minister Mishustin visited Astana and Almaty. February saw King Abdullah II of Jordan meet with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to discuss investment and humanitarian cooperation. In March, President Tokayev welcomed his Slovenian counterpart, Nataša Pirc Musar, who expressed interest in expanding bilateral trade. French President Emmanuel Macron is also preparing to visit Kazakhstan later this year, reinforcing France’s strategic interest in the region. In June, meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to attend the second Central Asia-China Summit in Astana, where trade and investment will top the agenda. Navigating a New Geopolitical Order Today, Central Asia represents a vital intersection of East and West....

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Central Asia Creates a Rift in the Turkic World Over Cyprus

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the five Central Asian republics have been performing a very complex balancing act. In some cases, this dynamic has forced them to make difficult decisions from a geopolitical point of view. This is the case with what has happened in recent weeks regarding diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Cyprus, a member of the European Union since 2004. Between December 2024 and the end of March 2025, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have each appointed diplomatic representatives in the Republic of Cyprus. Kazakhstan has decided to open its own embassy in Cyprus directly, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have accredited their respective ambassadors in Italy as diplomatic representatives for the Eastern Mediterranean Island also. Looking at the calendar, it doesn't seem to be a coincidence that these decisions were taken in the weeks leading up to the first historic summit between the European Union and Central Asia at the level of heads of state and government. The fourth point of the official joint declaration issued at the end of the meeting clarifies the matter: the text clearly states the support of the parties involved - the European Union and Central Asia - for United Nations Security Council Resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984). These two resolutions make it clear that the only recognized authority on the island is that of the Republic of Cyprus. In recent years, there has been no shortage of explicit references to the Cyprus issue in relations between the European Union and Central Asia. This was the case, for example, in September 2023: during a conference in Brussels, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan were warned against officially accepting the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TNRT) as an observer member of the Ankara-led Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Dietmar Krissler, head of the European External Action Service's Central Asia desk, spoke of the possible “negative effects” for the Central Asian members if they were to ratify TRNT's access to the Organization as an observer. Returning to the summit held in Samarkand at the beginning of April, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced during the discussions that €12 billion would be invested in Central Asia in various sectors. By also using the prospect of these investments, the European Union's diplomatic pressure on the Central Asian republics over Cyprus has been successful. As BBC Türkçe reports, this is not just a formal declaration of intent: in the official joint statement, future cooperation is in fact closely linked to compliance with the principles contained in the two UN resolutions, a very clear position. From Turkey's point of view, however, the picture is quite different. Turkey is the only country in the world to officially recognize the TRNC, which became a self-proclaimed independent entity in 1984 after Turkey invaded part of the island in 1974. Over the years, Ankara’s pressure has succeeded in preventing relations between the Central Asian republics and the Republic of Cyprus from going as...

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Communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Demand World Bank Investigation into Rogun HPP

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to formally investigate the World Bank’s involvement in the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan, following a complaint filed on behalf of communities living downstream on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complaint, submitted by the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries, raises serious concerns about the project's environmental and social impacts. The group claims the World Bank approved funding for the project based on outdated and incomplete assessments, failing to adequately consider risks to local ecosystems and communities. At the heart of the issue is the potential impact of filling the Rogun reservoir, which could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more. Experts warn this could accelerate desertification, increase soil salinity, and threaten the livelihoods and health of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Particularly vulnerable are the region’s rare tugai forests, including the Tigrovaya Balka Reserve, which was inscribed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List in 2023. The dam's construction also endangers local aquatic species, such as the critically endangered Amu Darya false shovelnose sturgeon. “This investigation is a crucial step,” said Yevgeny Simonov, international coordinator of Rivers without Boundaries. “The Rogun project in its current form is a massive threat to the environment and to millions of people in Central Asia. The World Bank must adhere to its own environmental and social safeguards.” Activists also criticized the lack of public consultation in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where affected communities were allegedly not informed in their native languages, Uzbek, Karakalpak, or Turkmen and where access to key documents was limited. Several complainants reportedly requested anonymity, citing fear of retaliation, which reflects the challenging environment for civic participation in the region. “People living in the lower Amu Darya basin have already suffered for decades due to poor water management and the drying of the Aral Sea. The Rogun project could be the final blow,” said Manana Kochladze of CEE Bankwatch Network. “There has been no serious dialogue with those whose lives depend on this river, which contradicts the basic principles of transparency and participation.” In 2023, environmental groups submitted proposed modifications to align the Rogun project with international standards, including cheaper and safer alternatives. However, the World Bank has yet to respond. Rivers without Boundaries alleges that the project violates multiple Bank policies, including those on environmental assessment, biodiversity protection, resource efficiency, dam safety, community engagement, and resettlement. The coalition is now urging the World Bank and other financiers to pause funding until a comprehensive, independent, and transparent investigation is completed and until meaningful steps are taken to prevent further harm to both people and nature.