The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy has dismissed concerns raised by leading seismologists about the seismic safety of the planned Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), a flagship regional energy project jointly backed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.
Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on September 9, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, President of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences and Director of the Institute of Seismology, warned that the future dam may be vulnerable to strong earthquakes due to its proposed location.
Seismic Warnings from Scientists
“The dam is planned in a dangerous area, surrounded by mountains,” Abdrakhmatov said. “It may not withstand a powerful earthquake.” He stressed that preliminary seismic micro-zoning studies had not been conducted and said his institute had written twice to the Ministry of Energy requesting such research, but received no response.
He warned that the destruction of Kambarata-1 in the event of a major earthquake could trigger cascading failures downstream, including at the existing Kambarata-2 HPP and other facilities.
Ministry and International Experts Respond
In a formal statement issued on September 10, the Ministry of Energy rejected the criticism and pointed to a recent review conducted by Swiss engineering consultancy AFRY, which is responsible for updating the feasibility study for the project.
According to the ministry, AFRY commissioned a team of international experts, including renowned dam safety specialists Dr. Martin Wieland and Dr. Stefan Ehlers, to carry out a comprehensive seismic analysis of the proposed site. The assessment used geological, tectonic, and seismic data, as well as satellite imagery and historical earthquake records.
The experts recommended constructing a curved gravity dam, which they said would improve both the structural stability and hydraulic performance of the plant. AFRY concluded that the dam would withstand projected seismic loads and stated that “its overall behavior in terms of load-bearing capacity is safe.”
Ongoing Safety Measures
The ministry also stated that further detailed safety studies are planned. These include the creation of a seismic micro-zoning map and the installation of three to five seismic monitoring stations at strategic points: along the dam’s axis, on both riverbanks, at the crest level, and upstream from the site.
The Kambarata-1 HPP is expected to become the largest hydropower facility in Kyrgyzstan. With a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and average annual generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, the $4 billion project is seen as a critical step in alleviating chronic electricity shortages in the country.
Construction Preparations Underway
The Ministry of Energy has reported steady progress in preparatory works. Infrastructure projects currently underway include the construction of access roads, power transmission lines, a substation, a bridge across the Naryn River, and a shift camp for construction workers.
