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The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...

Business & Economy Kazakhstan Business & Economy

Kazakhstan Waste-to-Energy Plants to Undergo Major Expansion

Kazakhstan is preparing a major expansion of waste-to-energy plants backed by Chinese investors, potentially giving waste incineration a central role in a system that still sends most municipal refuse to landfill. Astana plans to complete negotiations with China Tianying Inc. and submit an investment agreement for approval within two weeks. The proposed agreement would cover waste-treatment plants in at least three major cities, although the government has not disclosed their locations, cost, or construction timetable. The plans could add at least three facilities to Chinese-backed waste-to-energy plants already under construction in Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent. Together, the existing projects are designed to process 4,500 metric tons of municipal waste per day and generate 134 megawatts of electricity. If operated year-round at their stated capacity, they would handle around 1.64 million tons annually — equivalent to roughly one-third of the municipal waste Kazakhstan currently produces. The expansion follows years of limited progress in Kazakhstan’s waste sector. The country generates between 4.2 million and 4.8 million tons of municipal solid waste annually, while much of the material recorded as sorted or recycled ultimately ends up in landfill. In 2024, only 49,200 tons were processed into secondary raw materials, equivalent to around 1.1% of all municipal waste generated. Kazakhstan also has around 3,000 landfill sites, only about 20% of which meet environmental standards, according to the Ministry of Ecology. More than 1,000 illegal dumps were identified in 2024. The government is attempting to make waste-to-energy projects attractive to investors through investment agreements and a state-set electricity tariff of up to KZT55 ($0.12) per kilowatt-hour. The tariff provides operators with a revenue stream from the electricity produced by burning municipal waste, helping compensate for the weak economics of the wider waste-processing sector. Kazakhstan announced the plans after Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met Cao Debiao, party secretary and president of China Tianying on July 16, 2026. The two discussed both large plants and smaller facilities capable of processing between 250 and 500 tons of waste per day, which could serve regional cities without enough waste to support the major complexes planned for Kazakhstan’s largest urban centers. According to the government, China Tianying has worked in waste treatment and new energy for more than 20 years and operates in more than 30 countries. Cao said the company handles around 4,000 tons of municipal waste per day through its existing facilities and plans to increase this capacity to 7,000 tons. Three Chinese-backed projects worth a combined KZT293.3 billion, or approximately $622 million, are already under construction. In Almaty, Junxin Environmental Protection is building a KZT145.5 billion ($308 million) facility designed to process 2,000 tons of municipal waste per day and generate 60 megawatts of electricity. In Astana, EAST HOPE is developing a plant capable of processing at least 1,500 tons daily and producing 50 megawatts. The project is valued at KZT94.4 billion, approximately $200 million. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Kazakhstan is building a smaller plant in Shymkent with daily capacity of 1,000 tons and generating capacity of 24...

Environment Home Kyrgyzstan Environment Kyrgyzstan

From Waste to Design: How UpKel Is Rethinking Plastic Recycling in Kyrgyzstan

In Kyrgyzstan, much of the country’s plastic waste remains unsorted and ends up in landfills, while recycling infrastructure is limited. A growing number of local initiatives are treating discarded plastic as a usable material. One of them is UpKel, a circular design project that turns plastic waste into custom accessories and home decor. The Times of Central Asia spoke with UpKel founder Chinara Sultanalieva about plastic recycling in Kyrgyzstan and how design and local production can support a circular economy. She also discussed the obstacles holding back the sector. TCA: Tell us a bit about UpKel. How did the project start, and when did you realize you wanted to work in plastic recycling? Chinara: For almost 10 years, I worked in the corporate sector. I liked my job. I analyzed complex financial, management, and economic data and presented it to lenders, investors, and local communities. I also prepared sustainability reports, which let me see how the value created by a business could be distributed in the interests of employees and affected communities. Still, I always wanted to do something more meaningful. In 2019, I was selected to take part in the Community Solutions Program in the U.S. and spent four months at an environmental NGO in Seattle, Washington. I was struck by how much importance is placed there on environmental protection and public health, and by how local organizations support environmental initiatives and, importantly, keep people informed about upcoming changes in legislation. I was also impressed by the waste management system in the U.S. For example, Washington state alone had more than 80 organic waste recycling facilities. In one nearby city, compost was made from sludge produced by the wastewater treatment system, and the local zoo composted animal manure. I was especially interested in composting toilet systems, which I later introduced in Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, I understood that working directly with organic waste would be difficult and would likely face resistance from society. So I decided to start with plastic waste recycling. Plastic is visible, easier to measure, and recycling markets for it already exist, unlike for organics or mixed materials. Also, with this material, even a small-scale production operation can create a local circular economy without needing heavy industrial infrastructure. TCA: Why did you choose plastic specifically, and how did the UpKel model take shape? Chinara: Plastic waste remains a major part of environmental pollution. It is highly visible and can take hundreds of years to break down, possibly even longer than current estimates suggest. I was already familiar with the international Precious Plastic movement and had visited Rocket Plastic in Almaty, which operates on that model. So after returning to Kyrgyzstan, I founded the public foundation EcoFem to promote responsible resource use and gender equality. With support from a U.S. Embassy grant, I launched the country’s first workshop producing items from recycled plastic based on the Precious Plastic model. The workshop was set up to process four types of plastic waste. There are seven plastic categories...

Business & Economy Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy

Kyrgyzstan Fuel Crisis: Bishkek Relaxes Fuel Import Rules to Ease Supply Pressures

Kyrgyzstan has relaxed fuel import rules and extended restrictions on exports as it seeks to mitigate growing pressure on its domestic fuel market amid disruption to Russia’s refining sector. Under a July 13 resolution, the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers suspended, until April 1, 2027, provisions of a 2019 government decree restricting the import of oil and petroleum products by road. The exemption had previously been due to expire on September 30, 2026. The change allows fuel to be delivered into Kyrgyzstan by road tanker, giving importers greater flexibility to obtain supplies through alternative routes. Other requirements governing fuel imports, including transportation safety rules and accompanying documentation, remain in force. The measure comes as Russia, the source of more than 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s imported petroleum products, has imposed temporary restrictions on gasoline exports after Ukrainian drone attacks reduced production at several Russian refineries. At the same time, the Cabinet amended the country’s export rules for petroleum products. The current export ban on crude oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products transported by road or rail will now remain in effect until Kyrgyzstan’s domestic fuel demand is fully satisfied or until the EAEU’s common oil and petroleum products market becomes operational. According to the government, the changes are intended to stabilize the domestic fuel market and ensure adequate supplies for consumers. The latest measures add to a series of steps taken by Bishkek to address mounting fuel supply challenges. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is also seeking to increase domestic production of the country’s most widely used AI-92 gasoline by upgrading surplus stocks of lower-octane AI-80 fuel. Earlier this month, the government also eased its temporary fuel price controls after shortages emerged. Emergency price regulation introduced on May 25 established benchmark import prices of $860 per metric ton for AI-92 gasoline, $940 for AI-95 gasoline, $950 for diesel fuel, and $575 for liquefied petroleum gas. However, under a separate July 7 resolution signed by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev, AI-95 gasoline was removed from the list of socially significant goods subject to state price regulation, and retail price caps were abolished. The government said the changes were necessary to restore uninterrupted fuel supplies after AI-95 gasoline temporarily disappeared from filling stations in Bishkek.

Home Environment Kazakhstan Environment Kazakhstan

Open Flames Extinguished at Semey Ormany as Crews Tackle Hotspots

Open flames at a 60-hectare forest fire in Kazakhstan’s Semey Ormany reserve had been extinguished by early July 17, although hundreds of personnel remained at the site tackling isolated smouldering hotspots. The fire prompted the evacuation of 190 children and 20 adults from a nearby summer camp. Police officers carried some of the youngest children to waiting vehicles as staff tried to prevent panic and move everyone out quickly. The blaze was reported on the morning of July 16 in the Kamyshenka forestry area of the reserve’s Borodulikha branch. By that afternoon, it had spread across an estimated 60 hectares. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov sent both ministers responsible for the response to the Abai region to oversee the operation. As of 7 a.m. on July 17, the operation involved 769 personnel, 191 vehicles, and eight helicopters. Aircraft had completed 219 water drops, delivering 474 tons of water. Crews worked through the night to contain the fire and continued soaking smouldering areas after the open flames were extinguished. [caption id="attachment_52405" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: EcologyofQazaqstan[/caption] The Emergency Situations Ministry said the threat to Kamyshenka had been lifted. Ground teams and aircraft remained in place while the authorities worked toward full containment and continued monitoring the area. The fire broke out in the same reserve where 14 forestry workers died in June 2023. That blaze burned more than 60,000 hectares and caused damage estimated at 161.6 billion tenge. It also led to criminal cases and a major overhaul of the reserve’s equipment. In May 2024, a court sentenced the reserve’s acting director and the head of its Novoshulbinsk branch to seven years in prison for fire-safety violations that led to multiple deaths. The Abai regional appeals court upheld the convictions in August. Two other officials received two-year prison terms later that year, and the Prosecutor-General’s Office said in January 2025 that all criminal cases linked to the disaster had concluded. Kazakhstan has since invested in new wildfire equipment and monitoring. In June, the authorities unveiled a specialized firefighting vehicle developed after the 2023 disaster. By April, an AI early detection system using 37 cameras covered 510,000 hectares of Semey Ormany. Dangerous conditions persist across the region. Kazhydromet forecast temperatures of 35–37°C in the Abai region on July 18, with winds reaching 15–20 meters per second in the southwest. High fire danger was expected in the northwest and center of the region, with extreme fire danger in the south.

International Affairs Uzbekistan International Affairs

Tashkent and Kabul Rush to Deny Taliban Minister’s Criticism of Uzbekistan

A diplomatic row erupted between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan this week after a senior Taliban official was reported to have said that Islam in Uzbekistan exists only in name. After the remarks were widely covered by Uzbek and Afghan media, officials on both sides rejected the reports, although questions remain over whether excerpts of the speech were published and later deleted by the Taliban ministry itself. The dispute is sensitive because Uzbekistan has built close working relations with the Taliban administration on trade, transport, energy, and border security, while remaining wary of religious extremism and stopping short of formally recognizing its government. Public criticism of Uzbekistan’s religious policies by a senior Taliban figure could therefore strain a relationship both sides have worked carefully to preserve. The controversy centers on Sheikh Mohammad Khalid Hanafi, the Taliban’s acting minister for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. Afghanistan International reported that Hanafi referred to Samarkand, Bukhara, and Termez, Uzbek cities associated with prominent Islamic scholars including Imam al-Bukhari and Imam al-Tirmidhi. He was quoted as saying that Islam in the cities remained “only on people’s lips,” and blaming religious scholars for leaving the enforcement of Islamic rules to the government. Some regional media paraphrased the remark as a claim that “only the name of Islam remains” in Uzbekistan. The comments were reportedly made during a speech in Afghanistan’s Paktia Province. Afghanistan International said Hanafi’s ministry published several excerpts from the address. Reports cited by Uzbek media said the passage concerning Uzbekistan also appeared on a ministry spokesman’s account on X before being removed. The reports attracted widespread attention in Uzbekistan, prompting the country’s embassy in Kabul to seek an explanation. On July 16, the embassy said it had received a letter from the Taliban’s Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice rejecting what it described as distorted reporting intended to damage relations between the neighboring countries. The letter praised Uzbekistan as the homeland of major Islamic scholars, including Imam al-Bukhari, and stressed the countries’ shared religious, historical, and cultural ties. It said statements presented as criticism of Uzbekistan “do not correspond to the truth” and described the reports as a distortion of the facts. However, the letter did not explicitly state that Hanafi had never made the remarks or explain why the passage was reportedly removed. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a stronger denial. Speaking to Portal24.uz, ministry spokesperson Omonulla Fayziyev described the claims as “completely unfounded” and “disinformation.” Fayziyev said no such statement had been officially issued or published by Afghan state media. He added that Uzbekistan’s ambassador had discussed the controversy directly with the Taliban authorities. That explanation leaves the central question unresolved. The Uzbek and Taliban statements reject the reporting, yet neither directly addresses Afghanistan International’s account that the ministry itself released excerpts from Hanafi’s speech. Uzbekistan has emerged as one of the Central Asian countries most actively engaged with the Taliban since its return to power in 2021. The two sides are expanding trade...