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Kazakhstan Central Bank Chief Eyes Deeper U.S. Investment Links

Addressing senior executives from more than a dozen Fortune 100 companies active in Kazakhstan at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce-hosted event in Washington, D.C., on April 14, Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, laid out the country’s economic outlook and later spoke with The Times of Central Asia on a range of related issues. He was accompanied by Erzhan Kazykhan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s Special Representative for Negotiations with the United States, Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov, and Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, Magzhan Ilyassov. [caption id="attachment_47306" align="aligncenter" width="1536"] Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, with Javier Piedra[/caption] Kazakhstan’s U.S. Financial Stakes Amid Growth and Inflation Suleimenov offered a compelling case for Kazakhstan’s economy, citing steady growth, higher investment flows, and a deepening consumer market. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded 6.5% in 2025, marking a third straight year of growth above 5%. GDP per capita surpassed $15,000 – compared to approximately $3,162 in Uzbekistan and about $2,420 in Kyrgyzstan. Fixed-income investments rose 15% year-on-year, and foreign direct investment climbed to 20.5% (from 14.5%), broadening beyond oil. Suleimenov emphasized the Central Bank’s strong stewardship, citing a new tax and budget code to enhance fiscal discipline and monetary policy that supports investment, stressing that, “We will deal with inflation pressures and external shocks simultaneously while managing cryptocurrencies and private digital payments systems, which can weaken central bank control over money and policy transmission. The markets suggest that we have been doing an excellent job in a complex environment.” The government, Suleimenov said, is on track to consolidate the budget, with the deficit projected at 2.5% this year, 1.7% next year, and 0.9% by 2028, adding that this will strengthen fiscal-monetary coordination, and noting Kazakhstan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 24% remains low compared with countries such as the United States (125%), Japan (230%), Italy (137%). As inflation declined to 11% in March 2026 from 11.7% the previous month, Suleimenov reassured TCA that officials regard it as transitory, saying that “inflation was driven by resilient domestic demand backed by fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulation, external price pressures (Russian inflation, global food prices), increasing regulated prices (utilities and fuel), and tax reform (a VAT increase from 12% to 16%), with volatile and elevated inflation expectations. For these reasons, we responded with rate hikes and liquidity tightening, bringing inflation down to about 11%, with a further easing expected to single digits by the end of this year.” Suleimenov reaffirmed that “the United States is integral to Kazakhstan’s financial system and long-term asset strategy.” He noted that Kazakhstan manages approximately $190 billion in long-term assets, including some $75 billion in National Bank reserves, $60 billion in the National Fund, and $55 billion in the unified pension fund. Around one-third of these assets are invested in U.S. securities, while roughly $50 billion is managed by American firms, underscoring deep financial ties beyond industrial investment. TCA asked how U.S. sanctions and export controls affect Kazakhstan, a concern that was especially acute in the initial stages of the Russo-Ukrainian...

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Tajikistan-Based Shohin Airlines Aims to Acquire Four Airbus Aircraft

Shohin Airlines, a new private airline registered in Tajikistan, says it is in the final stage of acquiring four planes from the Airbus A320neo line of aircraft. The airline and the European aerospace company met on April 10 to discuss the acquisition of two A320neo and two A321neo aircraft, building on a dialogue that began earlier this year at the Airbus headquarters in Toulouse, France, according to Shohin Airlines. The discussions with Airbus are showing “steady positive momentum,” and implementation of agreements “will be an important step in developing the airline’s fleet and strengthening its position in the air transport market,” the airline said in a statement on Friday. Currently, Shohin Airlines operates helicopters for specialized flights. The negotiations with Airbus reflect its plans for significant expansion into commercial passenger traffic. Last month, the airline announced a $200 million investment from a European investment fund.

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Tajikistan Says Two Afghan Smugglers Killed After Crossing Border

Security forces in Tajikistan killed two alleged drug smugglers from Afghanistan who crossed the border overnight, the Tajik government said on Friday. The incursion happened around 1 a.m. in the Farkhor district of the Khatlon region, and border guards and other national security troops disrupted the attempt to smuggle 25 kilograms of hashish, Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security said. “The smugglers disobeyed the border patrol's lawful demands to surrender and offered armed resistance,” the committee said, according to state news agency Khovar. It said two of the smugglers were killed during “the combat operation” and that a third suspect escaped in the darkness. The committee described the situation at the border with Afghanistan as “under control.” On April 8, delegates from border agencies of some countries belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States, a regional group linked by past Soviet ties, assessed the Afghanistan situation during a meeting in Tajikistan. “There is general agreement that the unstable military-political and economic situation in Afghanistan will have a destructive impact on border security in the Central Asian region in the medium term,” the agencies said. Last year, a number of Chinese workers in Tajikistan were killed in cross-border attacks from Afghanistan, prompting the Chinese government to urge the Tajik government to take more robust steps to protect Chinese citizens and businesses. At the time, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and senior security officials discussed ways to strengthen the southern border with Afghanistan, whose ruling Taliban movement promised to help find the attackers. The border between the two countries is rugged and mountainous in many places and is about 1,370 kilometers long, making it difficult to monitor.

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From From Global Streaming to International Productions: Kazakhstan Filmmakers Go International

Makpal Kursabayeva is a sound engineer whose work has increasingly extended beyond Kazakhstan’s local film industry. Over the years, she has contributed to projects with international teams, from working alongside The Matrix cinematographer Bill Pope to taking part in series produced for global streaming platforms. Her career highlights the expanding role of Kazakhstani professionals in international production and shows that local crews can compete with their Western counterparts. Her work includes on-set recording, post-production, and sound capture in environments ranging from military airbases and nighttime steppes to urban locations. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, she discusses how the industry works and why crews from Kazakhstan are competitive in international productions. TCA: You are a highly experienced sound engineer, but most of your work has been on local projects. Do you think Kazakhstani specialists are competitive in the global market? Makpal: I have no doubt about it, however confident that may sound. Recently, we worked on an international series filmed in Kazakhstan by Turkish filmmakers. Many department heads were Turkish, but I led the sound department. We worked and communicated seamlessly; there were no barriers at all. And that’s always the case. I also worked on a commercial project for Chevron, where the cinematographer was Bill Pope, who shot the legendary film The Matrix, the Ant-Man films, Shang-Chi, and more. TCA: Was the entire crew international as well? Makpal: The second director was American. Playback equipment was brought from Moscow. It was a mix, bringing together the best. The Russian team even said that such sound equipment isn’t available in Moscow. Technically, we are not lagging behind at all. We also have plenty of talented and highly skilled professionals. TCA: Were they at all arrogant? Makpal: Not at all. Bill Pope was great to work with. He’s like a rock star, very open, loves music. We talked about ethnic music; I let him listen to the band Turan. He even asked me to play the dombra. I was a bit nervous because the executive producer was very strict, and I thought she might say I was disrupting the workflow. But he went to her himself and asked, and then she was the one chasing me to make it happen, so the question isn’t whether we can work at a Western level; we already do. TCA: You’ve also worked with German teams on Emir Baigazin’s films, and with French teams on projects by Yermek Shinarbayev and Akan Satayev’s epic Myn Bala: Warriors of the Steppe? Makpal: Yes. There was an interesting experience with one Western specialist, I won’t say from which country. I thought they had a different school and that I could learn from him. But while he was good on set, he wasn’t very strong in post-production. It even got to the point where I was teaching him, explaining how to properly edit sound and the technology behind it. Sometimes I would suggest something, and the next day those ideas would be presented as his own....

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Kazakhstan Freezes Projects with Iran Amid Military Conflict

Kazakhstan has suspended several joint projects with Iran amid ongoing military hostilities in the country, Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Issetov has announced. The decision effectively puts on hold plans to expand trade and economic cooperation between Astana and Tehran, despite previously stated ambitions to significantly increase bilateral trade. On December 11, 2025, during the Kazakhstan-Iran business forum in Astana, Tokayev said bilateral trade had exceeded $340 million the previous year. The two sides set an initial goal of raising trade to $1 billion, with a longer-term aim of doubling that figure. However, the escalation of military activity in Iran has forced both sides to reconsider these plans. “The situation is currently very complicated. At this point, many of our projects with Iran have been frozen due to the country being in a state of war. As a result, our businesses and entrepreneurs are now in a wait-and-see position,” Issetov said. “Kazakhstan is not suffering major losses, as the volumes were relatively small and did not significantly impact the national economy. Nevertheless, given our strong partnership with Iran, there is an effect, though not a substantial one,” he added. Despite the growth in trade, Iran’s share in Kazakhstan’s foreign economic relations remains limited. According to the Ministry of National Economy, exports to Iran in 2025 amounted to $239.3 million, while imports totaled $191 million, equivalent to roughly 0.3% of the country’s total foreign trade turnover. The agricultural sector accounted for the bulk of trade: approximately 90% of Kazakhstan’s exports to Iran consisted of wheat and barley. In the first ten months of last year alone, grain shipments reached $280 million, exceeding the total agricultural trade volume for 2024 ($220 million). Government officials believe these volumes can be redirected to alternative markets if necessary. From a logistics perspective, Iran is not considered a critical transit route for Kazakhstan. This was previously confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin. “I don’t think the conflict will have any impact on our logistics. Shipments through the Persian Gulf were never dominant for us,” he said. Despite its currently limited role, Iran had been viewed as a promising direction for the development of transport corridors. In December 2025, Tokayev announced plans to build a transport and logistics terminal at Shahid Rajaee Port, which was intended to provide direct access for Kazakh exports to global markets. Plans also included strengthening links between Kazakhstan’s ports of Aktau and Kuryk and Iran’s ports of Amirabad and Anzali, as well as integrating Bandar Abbas and Chabahar into regional logistics chains. “It is important for us to develop multimodal corridors connecting Central Asia with the Persian Gulf, and the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway plays a key role in this,” Tokayev previously stated. According to his estimates, cargo traffic along this route could have doubled by 2030. For now, those plans are effectively on hold.

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Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...