There’s No Such Thing as Bad Weather — or How Climate Change Is Damaging Agriculture and Food Security in Tajikistan
Over the past 30 years, cotton production in Tajikistan has dropped by a staggering 56%. Among the many contributing factors are a lack of investment, outdated agricultural technology, and, notably, climate change. While humanity is not yet capable of stopping climate change, there are ways to adapt, prevent or mitigate the consequences of natural disasters, glacier melt, droughts, and to preserve biodiversity. Agricultural GDP is growing — but slowly The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet it remains the cornerstone of food security in Tajikistan. Moreover, a significant portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. According to official statistics, Tajikistan’s population exceeds 10 million, with more than 7 million living in rural areas. Of the total population, 60% are engaged in agricultural activities, while the official unemployment rate stands at 7.9%. Data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan shows that agriculture contributes approximately 25% of the country’s GDP and accounts for a similar share of exports. The sector also generates 35% of national tax revenues. Beyond food production, agriculture supplies raw materials to various industries, meaning that the livelihoods of countless small and medium-sized enterprises depend directly on its productivity. Despite modest growth in gross agricultural output, the pace remains slow. At the same time, food prices continue to rise on domestic markets, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford a balanced diet. Local farmers and entrepreneurs often attribute price hikes to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, especially given the sector’s reliance on imported fertilizers, machinery, and packaging Food Security at Risk When measured in U.S. dollars, agricultural income has remained relatively stagnant—indicating a lack of real progress and underscoring the need for urgent reforms. Compounding the issue is Tajikistan’s annual population growth rate of 2.7%, which places additional strain on the food system. Without strategic investments in irrigation, land expansion, and climate-resilient technologies, the country risks facing a systemic food shortage in the coming decades. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 60% of Tajikistan’s population suffers from food insecurity—meaning they lack sufficient access to the calories and nutrients needed for a healthy and active life. An Idea in Need of Investment Matlub Rakhmonov, an agricultural specialist, analyzed the impact of climate change on Tajikistan's agrarian sector, particularly in horticulture. “For more than ten years now, in several regions of Tajikistan, some small and medium-sized business owners involved in horticulture have not only failed to secure a full harvest, but have also incurred losses,” says Rakhmonov. “The reason for this is increasingly due to unusually warm days at the end of winter, which cause fruit-bearing trees to bloom prematurely. Then, in late April and early May, sharp cold snaps hit, the blossoms fall, and the resulting crops are destroyed.” Moreover, climate change has led to frequent natural anomalies, causing some traditional tree species to stop responding to seasonal changes. In the past, Tajikistan made widespread efforts to implement intensive orchard...
