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Rahmon Looks to China as Tajikistan’s Options Narrow

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon just finished a state visit to China. Rahmon has made trips to China many times during the nearly 34 years he has been in power in Tajikistan, but this visit came during a critical period. Simply put, Tajikistan is losing the international importance it once had, and China might now be the most dependable friend remaining for Rahmon and his country. A ‘Sweet’ Start China established diplomatic ties with all five Central Asian countries at the start of 1992. Just months later, a civil war broke out in Tajikistan that would last until June 1997, but that did not deter China from seeking investment opportunities in Tajikistan. China funded the construction of a sugar plant in Kurgan-Tepe in 1992, and later helped build confectioneries in large cities and towns in Tajikistan, as well as providing 10,000 tons of feed for livestock and, in 1994, extending a $50-million loan to Tajikistan. In April 1996, Rahmon and the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan met in Shanghai and formed the Shanghai Five, which, after the inclusion of Uzbekistan five years later, would become the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China used the SCO to improve economic ties with all the Central Asian members, but while Chinese investment in Tajikistan was far less than in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, it was extremely important for Tajikistan, which was, and remains, the poorest country in Central Asia. After the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, and the start of the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan, China gave equipment and winter uniforms to Tajikistan’s border guards. Later, China also helped fund the construction of Tajik border posts along the frontier with Afghanistan, and Beijing is set to help finance nine more border posts. Security along Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan is also in China’s interest. China shares an approximately 475-kilometer border with Tajikistan. Eastern Tajikistan is mountainous, remotely inhabited, and shares a long border with Afghanistan. China is concerned about the ability of potential enemies to move from Afghanistan through eastern Tajikistan and enter China. That is why, less than ten years ago, China built a small, forward observation military post in eastern Tajikistan, not far from the Chinese border. Militant groups such as the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, comprised mainly of Uyghurs from China’s Xinjiang Region, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, which has explicitly threatened China, are present in northern Afghanistan. Chinese companies have been building Tajikistan’s infrastructure for some 20 years: roads, power transmission lines, the Dushanbe thermal power plant, hydropower plants, factories, and other objects. In 2025, China finally surpassed Russia to become Tajikistan’s leading trade partner, and Chinese-Tajik trade turnover in the first three months of 2026 increased by more than 52% compared to Q1 in 2025. Changing Times China is likely to remain Tajikistan’s leading trade partner and more for the foreseeable future. The geopolitical situation in Central Asia has changed, and not in Tajikistan’s favor. The biggest change for Rahmon and his country...

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Opinion: UK’s C6 Engagement and the Opportunity for British Geostrategic Renewal

Along with Nicholas Spykman, Sir Halford Mackinder is one of the most pre-eminent thinkers in the field of geopolitics. Whilst today geopolitics is a term used interchangeably with “world affairs,” “international relations,” and “foreign policy,” Spykman and Mackinder used the phrase to describe the narrow academic study of how geography influences international relations and the conduct of states. In the 1904 paper, The Geographical Pivot of History, Mackinder theorized that the key to controlling the balance of power in the world rested in a “heartland” of Eurasia, comprising Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Mackinder described the heartland region as the “pivot region” for regional and global hegemony. The word “pivot” has recently been popularized in international relations, with examples including President Obama’s pivot to the Pacific and Britain’s Indo-Pacific pivot in the 2021 Integrated Review. In 1997, former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski built on Mackinder’s ideas in his work, The Grand Chessboard. Brzezinski defined a geopolitical pivot as being “determined by their geography, which in some cases gives them a special role either in defining access to important areas or in denying resources to a significant player. In some cases, a geopolitical pivot may act as a defensive shield for a vital state or even a region.” To Mackinder and Brzezinski, Central Asia was a crucial geostrategic pivot. Central Asia - comprising the five states of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, collectively termed the C5 - is located between China, Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan. Thus, the near abroad of the region is defined by conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Iran and Israel/U.S., and between Taliban-run Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pragmatic engagement is a necessity for the C5 but has not stopped them from pursuing greater diversification in security and economic arrangements, and they remain committed to U.S.-led diplomatic initiatives. Faced with a regionally assertive superpower in China, risks created by Russia’s war in Ukraine, theocratic Iran, and the Taliban in Afghanistan, Central Asia has continued to show its desire to build and deepen its economic and security partnerships from beyond traditional powers – such as China and Russia – to states in the Gulf, the Caucasus, Western Europe, and elsewhere. The United Kingdom has emerged as a new and important partner. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns in the Central Asian states about its regional revisionism, territorial ambitions, and Putin’s reconstruction of the Soviet Union. In 2014, Putin credited Nursultan Nazarbayev with having “created a state in a territory that had never had a state before,” adding that “the Kazakhs never had any statehood.” The remarks sparked anger in Kazakhstan and fed concern about Moscow’s view of post-Soviet sovereignty. Finally, Putin said that it would be best for Kazakhstan to “remain in the greater Russian world.” In The Grand Chessboard, Brzezinski predicted that “Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians.” Central Asia has been a...

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Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Coming Sunday

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team will be taking a look at Tajikistan's heir apparent, Rustam Emomali, with guests Salimjon Aioub, head of RFERL's Tajik service, known locally as Ozodi, and Edward Lemon, president of the Oxus Society.

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Screenwriter Yefrat Sharipov on AI and the Future of Kazakhstani Cinema

Screenwriter Yefrat Sharipov is a graduate of Kazakhstan’s Academy of Civil Aviation and the New York Film Academy (NYFA), and one of the country’s most sought-after screenwriters in recent years. He worked on the box office hit Dos-Mukasan, a film about the legendary Kazakhstani musical group often described as the local equivalent of The Beatles. He now reflects on the future of global cinema, the role of artificial intelligence, and why Kazakhstani stories can resonate far beyond the country’s borders. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Sharipov discusses how engineering thinking shapes his approach to storytelling, why screenwriters must understand the inner workings of the film industry, and how technology may soon erase language barriers. TCA: You’re a screenwriter with an engineering background who graduated from the Academy of Civil Aviation. How did that happen? Sharipov: Honestly, it’s difficult for me to explain myself. The desire to write stories has been with me since childhood; I always knew I would never stop doing it. The need to express myself through writing appeared very early. Back in school, I was already trying to write short stories, novellas, poetry, even songs. But when it came time to choose a profession, I decided to pursue a technical field, although I never stopped writing “for the drawer.” Later, when I entered the film industry and worked on projects in other roles, I remembered this passion and realized there was a way to apply it professionally. There was a huge demand for screenwriters. At first, it was mostly curiosity, I wanted to see whether anyone besides me would actually find my stories interesting. Gradually, things started to work out, and here I am. TCA: What did you write about as a child? Sharipov: About whatever fascinated me at the time. At one point, I became obsessed with Tolkien and started inventing fantasy stories with imaginary creatures. I mostly wrote for myself, though sometimes I let friends, parents, and relatives read my work. I remember my mother always praising me, and I usually got good grades for essays at school. My friends and I even kept what we called “school chronicles,” where we humorously wrote about everything happening around us. Honestly, if I were a better speaker, maybe I would have become a stand-up comedian. TCA: Does your technical education help you in your current work? Sharipov: It does. Technical disciplines probably influenced the way I approach storytelling. I look at stories almost like an engineer, everything has to be structured and logical. Before starting a film, I research the subject deeply. I don’t just read materials casually. I use an approach similar to scientific research. I gather facts, critically analyze the material, and repeatedly verify information. TCA: So, every film becomes almost like a dissertation. But cinema is always about people. Can human beings really be approached scientifically? Sharipov: When I worked on the Dos-Mukasan biopic, I didn’t just rely on archival material, I tried to meet personally with everyone who had...

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Uzbekistan Plans to Send First National Cosmonaut Into Space by 2028

Uzbekistan plans to send its first national cosmonaut into orbit by October 2028, according to officials from the country’s space agency, as Tashkent expands its ambitions in the field of space exploration. Uzbekcosmos Deputy Director Muhiddin Ibrohimov said the mission is expected to last about 14 days and is currently under discussion with the three countries capable of conducting human spaceflights: the United States, Russia, and China. According to Ibrohimov, all three countries have expressed their readiness to cooperate with Uzbekistan on the project. He said the future Uzbek cosmonaut is expected to return from space with the results of scientific experiments carried out during the mission. The authorities are planning to establish a government commission responsible for selecting astronaut candidates and coordinating training and flight preparations. Officials said applicants must be between 27 and 40 years old, hold a university degree, and meet physical requirements, including a height between 160 and 190 centimeters and a weight between 50 and 95 kilograms. Knowledge of foreign languages will also be required. The selection process is expected to take the form of a nationwide program open to the public. The mission is expected to include a program involving experiments in medicine, biology, genetics, and other priority fields. Uzbekistan’s plans build on earlier statements from Russian officials offering support for the country’s space ambitions. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov had said Moscow was ready to assist Uzbekistan in preparing and sending its first national cosmonaut into orbit, as well as launching the country’s first artificial satellite. Manturov said President Shavkat Mirziyoyev had set the goal of developing Uzbekistan’s space capabilities, including human spaceflight and satellite technology. Russia has also recently expressed its willingness to support other Central Asian countries in space exploration. In April, Russian Ambassador to Turkmenistan Ivan Volynkin said Moscow was prepared to help train a Turkmen cosmonaut if Ashgabat showed interest.

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Uzbekistan Expands Energy Cooperation With SOCAR and BP at Energy Week Forum

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held talks on May 13 with executives from Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR and energy giant BP during the Uzbekistan Energy Week 2026 forum in Tashkent. According to the Uzbekistan's presidency, Mirziyoyev met with SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, as well as BP representatives Ariel Flores and Giovanni Cristofoli, to discuss expanding cooperation in the energy and oil and gas sectors. The sides noted the growing partnership between Uzbekistan and SOCAR, particularly in the development of hydrocarbon fields on the Ustyurt Plateau in western Uzbekistan. Officials also agreed to open a SOCAR representative office in Uzbekistan as cooperation between the two countries deepens. BP’s participation in the Ustyurt project was also highlighted during the meeting. Discussions focused on joint projects involving oil and gas exploration, hydrocarbon production, deep processing of raw materials, and long-term supplies of oil and petroleum products. The parties also discussed cooperation in training specialists for the energy industry. Najaf also thanked Mirziyoyev for Uzbekistan’s support in preparations for hosting the FIFA U-20 World Cup in 2027, which Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are set to organize jointly. Najaf also serves as chairman of the Association of Football Federations of Azerbaijan. Energy cooperation between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan has expanded significantly over the past year. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov said SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz had established a joint operating company to oversee the Ustyurt project under a Production Sharing Agreement. Mirzamahmudov said seismic surveys covering more than 3,000 kilometers were expected to begin before the end of the year, followed by the drilling of the first exploration well. Last August, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that SOCAR had officially begun operations at an oil field in Uzbekistan. Aliyev said at the time that both sides hoped to make a major oil discovery within the next few years.