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Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports Uninterrupted Despite Caspian Pipeline Consortium Berth Suspensions

Despite the suspension of two out of three offshore berths operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Kazakhstan’s oil exports are proceeding without disruption, according to the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The ministry stated that there are currently no restrictions on the receipt or shipment of oil through the CPC system. Transshipment is being carried out on schedule via VPU-3, the third remote mooring unit, which has been in operation since 2014. “Shipments are proceeding normally and according to schedule through the VPU-3 offshore mooring device, which remains operational,” the Ministry of Energy announced. Temporary Suspension of VPU-1 and VPU-2 Earlier, CPC announced the temporary suspension of VPU-1 and VPU-2 following an unscheduled inspection conducted by Russia’s Rostransnadzor. The inspections are part of a broader review of marine infrastructure safety across the Azov-Black Sea basin, launched in the wake of an oil product spill in the Kerch Strait in December 2024. Following the inspection, regulatory authorities issued protocols and directives mandating the temporary shutdown of the two berths until the violations identified are addressed. In the meantime, all CPC shipments have been consolidated through VPU-3. Consortium shareholders have been formally notified of the developments. Similar Measures at Transneft Facility The crackdown on safety violations has extended beyond the CPC. The eighth oil-loading berth operated by JSC Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NCSP Group), part of Russia’s Transneft, has also been suspended for 90 days. The suspension followed the identification of safety violations related to the handling of hazardous cargo. Transneft has been ordered to correct the deficiencies by June 30. Strategic Significance of CPC The CPC is Kazakhstan’s most critical export route for crude oil, linking the giant Tengiz Field with the Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka Terminal on the Black Sea. The pipeline stretches 1,510 kilometers, including 452 kilometers within Kazakhstan, and has an annual capacity of up to 81.5 million tons. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported 54.9 million tons of oil via CPC, accounting for approximately 80% of the country's total oil exports. Security Concerns: Drone Attacks Raise Alarms Security concerns continue to loom over the CPC infrastructure. In February, the Kropotkinskaya station was targeted by seven drones. While the Ministry of Energy reassured that oil deliveries remained unaffected, the incident heightened concerns about operational stability. Although Russia and Ukraine later agreed not to target CPC facilities, Russia alleges that its air defense systems intercepted another drone attack on March 24, the third such incident in a month. Oil market analyst Olzhas Baidildinov voiced skepticism about the durability of the ceasefire arrangement. “We shouldn’t count on an end to attacks on CPC infrastructure,” Baidildinov said. “There’s unwarranted optimism in Kazakh media and among some experts, especially against the backdrop of record oil output in February-March. A decline in both oil production and exports seems inevitable, along with a drop in KazMunayGas’ dividend income from CPC and budget revenues.” He also warned that irregular operations could damage infrastructure designed for continuous, stable use. “Oil pipelines are engineered for consistent operational...

Opinion: Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan: Kazakhstan Asserts Contract Stability Amid Lawsuits Exceeding $170 Billion

Following statements by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the intrigue surrounding the PSA agreements for Kashagan and Karachaganak and the stabilized contract for Tengiz have taken on new dimensions. Previously, in the articles, Breaking Down Kazakhstan’s Claims Against International Oil Consortiums and Is Kazakhstan Preparing to Take on the Oil Consortium “Whales?, TCA examined the ongoing lawsuits filed by the government and the authorized body, PSA LLC, against the North Caspian Operating Company N.V. (NCOC) and Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. (KPO), noting that the Ministry of Energy and KazMunayGas have not raised any claims against the joint venture Tengizchevroil LLP (TCO). While shares in NCOC and KPO are managed by PSA LLC, those in TCO are controlled by the national company, KazMunayGas. What did President Tokayev say? On January 28, President Tokayev held an expanded government meeting addressing the public and political debate surrounding PSA agreements. "Reforms in the subsoil use sector must continue, no matter what," Tokayev stated. "This is a fundamental position that the government should firmly adhere to. The implementation of production-sharing agreements (PSAs) for major oil fields has allowed Kazakhstan to become a reliable supplier of energy resources to the global market. These projects make a significant contribution to the country’s socioeconomic development. However, large investments require a long-term planning horizon. Therefore, the government must intensify negotiations on extending PSA contracts, possibly on updated and more favorable terms for our country." This statement sparked discussions among experts; who exactly was the president referring to? The major PSAs in Kazakhstan are the Karachaganak and Kashagan projects, with contracts expiring in 2038 and 2041, respectively. In contrast, Tengiz does not operate under a PSA but rather a stabilized contract, which is set to expire much sooner, in 2033. I have repeatedly emphasized the need for an audit of Tengiz before the contract expires and have proposed that it should not be extended. Kazakhstan can independently, or with the involvement of foreign oil service companies, develop this highly profitable field under more advantageous conditions. On January 29, Kazakhstan's Minister of Energy, Almassadam Satkaliyev, provided clarification, confirming that the president's directive was specifically about Tengiz. "The directive was given quite openly within the framework of international agreements and international law to conduct consultations with consortium participants. Given the development timelines, the most relevant project for us is Tengizchevroil, which operates the Tengiz field in partnership with Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Lukoil. We plan to start certain preliminary consultations with them, and once we are ready for negotiations, we will proceed with them. The government will first develop an agenda and a list of its demands. One possible demand is an increase in Kazakhstan’s stake in these projects." So, is Tengiz the primary target? Or is Kazakhstan preparing for a broader offensive on all three fronts? “There are Hardliners in the Government” On February 16, the international industry portal Upstream Online published an extensive article titled Kazakhstan Seeks Shake-Up at Crucial Foreign-Led Oil Projects. The article primarily focuses on the production-sharing agreements (PSAs) for Karachaganak...

Kazakhstan’s Mini Oil Refineries Urge Government to Lift Export Ban on By-Products

Kazakhstan’s January ban on the export of naphtha, heating oil, and marine fuel should be reconsidered, as it threatens to shut down mini-oil refineries, Muratbek Makhanov, Managing Director of the Oil and Gas Sector and Ecology at the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs (Atameken) has warned. Since January 29, Kazakhstan has imposed an official ban on exporting gasoline, diesel fuel, and certain petroleum products, including to other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states. The restrictions cover by-products of mini-refineries such as naphtha, used as fuel for tractors, a gasoline additive, or a solvent in paint production, heating oil, and marine fuel. While Kazakhstan operates three major refineries, approximately 30 smaller facilities focus primarily on diesel production, which inevitably results in these by-products. The issue, industry representatives argue, is that these by-products have little domestic demand and are primarily sold for export. “The oil refining process makes it impossible to produce only diesel fuel. Other petroleum products, such as heating oil and naphtha, are unavoidable by-products that now fall under the export ban. Selling them domestically is not viable, which means we may have to suspend production entirely, leading to a diesel fuel shortage,” said Abdymanap Isabayev, a representative of one of Kazakhstan’s mini-refineries. Isabayev proposed maintaining the export ban on diesel fuel while lifting restrictions on by-products. His concerns were echoed by Atameken’s Makhanov. “Restrictions on the export of refined oil by-products, such as naphtha, heating oil, and marine fuel, harm not only the financial stability of mini-refineries but also Kazakhstan’s broader economy. The government must reconsider this ban and allow mini-refineries to export these products,” he said. Makhanov emphasized that selling surplus petroleum products abroad would generate additional export revenues, increasing budget inflows through customs duties, fees, and other charges. Amanbai Sembekuly, another mini-refinery representative, warned that shutting down small processing plants, which primarily refine crude from marginal and unprofitable fields, could also halt oil production at those sites. “This would be a significant loss to the national budget, which is already suffering from lower revenues due to the ban. The export customs duty on our high-sulphur oil products is 2.5 times higher than the duty on diesel fuel, so these restrictions are costing the government money,” Sembekuly said. Kazakhstani naphtha is primarily exported to Turkey, Uzbekistan, Italy, and Greece, where it is refined into diesel fuel. According to industry representatives, similar refining processes could take place within Kazakhstan’s major refineries, but this would require setting up additional processing lines. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Kazakh authorities announced at the end of January the liberalization of domestic oil product prices, abolishing 11 regulations that had controlled wholesale and retail fuel prices since 2014. The move is expected to address fuel shortages, which have worsened due to price disparities that drive fuel exports to neighboring markets.

Kazakhstan to Offset Oil Overproduction in 2024

Kazakhstan has pledged to compensate for excess oil production in 2024, reaffirming its commitment to the OPEC+ agreements. At the 58th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, Kazakh representatives confirmed the country's readiness to take necessary measures in 2025 and 2026 to meet its obligations under the OPEC+ framework. "Despite increased production this year due to the expansion of the Tengiz field, Kazakhstan remains committed to the OPEC+ agreement and will engage in negotiations with partners in accordance with international law," the Ministry of Energy stated. OPEC+ Efforts to Stabilize the Market The February 3 meeting marked the first OPEC+ gathering of 2025. Participating ministers emphasized that voluntary production cuts, implemented by several member states in December 2024, have contributed to oil market stability. Previously, on December 5, 2024, OPEC+ agreed to extend voluntary oil production limits of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2025. The decision was made in response to a seasonal slowdown in demand during the winter months. A gradual easing of restrictions is expected to continue until September 2026. The next OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting is scheduled for April 5.

Kazakhstan Ships First Batch of Kashagan Oil to Baku

Kazakhstan has shipped its first batch of oil from the Kashagan field to the Azerbaijani port of Baku, marking a significant step in the country’s efforts to diversify its export routes. The shipment was confirmed by the national oil company KazMunayGas (KMG). The tanker Taraz, carrying Kashagan oil, departed from the port of Aktau and is en route to Azerbaijan. Upon arrival in Baku, the oil will be transported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline system to the Mediterranean Sea. The export operation is being carried out by KMG Kashagan B.V., a subsidiary of JSC NC KazMunayGas, which manages Kazakhstan’s share in the North Caspian Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). This initiative aligns with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s directive for KazMunayGas to develop alternative hydrocarbon export routes. The shipment also advances the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Route, a vital corridor for Kazakhstan’s oil exports. In 2022, KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR signed a general agreement to enable the transit of Kazakh oil. In March 2024, the two parties finalized plans for a phased increase in deliveries through Azerbaijan. Under the agreement, annual transit volumes are expected to reach 2.2 million tons. KMG Kashagan B.V., which holds a 16.88% stake in the North Caspian PSA, represents Kazakhstan’s interests in the North Caspian Project (NCP). The company is responsible for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Caspian Sea, as well as the independent transportation and sale of its production share under the PSA’s terms. Energy analysts highlight that diversifying export routes will help Kazakhstan reduce its reliance on traditional oil supply corridors, thereby increasing flexibility and resilience in the face of global market volatility.

Uzbekistan Begins Processing Afghan Crude to Alleviate Energy Shortages

Uzbekistan’s Saneg oil refining company has begun processing Afghan crude oil at its Fergana refinery, to help ease Afghanistan’s energy shortages under Taliban rule. The first shipment of oil was transported by rail from the Hairatan terminal in Afghanistan's northern Balkh province. Afghanistan faces a significant energy crisis due to supply issues from Iran and Turkmenistan. The Taliban wants to restart domestic oil production to reduce its dependence on imports. Afghan crude oil, mainly extracted from the Amu Darya basin, is not fully used because Afghanistan needs more facilities to refine it. However, fortunately for Afghanistan, its neighboring countries to the north and west are willing and capable of supplying electricity, gas, and light oil products so that the country can, to some extent, improve its energy security. The refining agreement represents one of the first cross-border collaborations for Afghan crude oil, despite the historically complex relations between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Other countries, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, are looking at similar opportunities to gain market share and indirectly support the Afghan economy. This shows how the Central Asian countries are changing their strategies while Afghanistan is isolated internationally. For example, at the end of April this year, a delegation from Kazakhstan paid an official visit to Kabul, where a meeting of the Kazakh and Afghan businesses and an exhibition of Kazakh products were held. The visit to Kabul shows Astana’s intention of using trade to improve Kazakhstan’s relations with the new Afghan government. Saneg’s initiative to process Afghan oil is part of Uzbekistan's strategy to boost its refining and seize business opportunities in a volatile region. Exporting refined products to Afghanistan could bring extra revenue, and help a struggling neighbor. However, political instability and fragile relations may limit the long-term benefits. Companies from Russia are also interested in similar deals. Uzbekistan has also signed five agreements on mining projects in Afghanistan. These agreements, worth $1.15 billion, were part of a larger package of 35 agreements and memoranda of understanding signed between the two countries. These agreements increased Uzbekistan’s investment in Afghanistan by more than $2.5 billion.