Russia's War - The Times Of Central Asia

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Nurlan Saburov

Nurlan Saburov Case Sparks Speculation After Russia Entry Ban and Kazakhstan Security Check

A wave of speculation has followed reports that stand-up comedian Nurlan Saburov, a Kazakh citizen who has worked in Russia for years, has been barred from entering Russia for 50 years. After returning to Kazakhstan, Saburov became the subject of “verification measures” by the National Security Committee (KNB) following online allegations linking him to a Russian private military formation. The entry ban prompted widespread discussion in both countries. In Russia, some commentators suggested the decision could be connected to Saburov’s refusal to publicly support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russian lawmaker Vitaly Milonov, for example, urged the comedian to make a public statement backing Russia, implying that this could help resolve the situation. In Kazakhstan, the controversy escalated after social media users circulated a video alleging that Saburov had donated enduro motorcycles to a unit described online as the “Wagner Istra Legion.” The authenticity and context of the footage have not been independently verified. At a parliament briefing on February 11, Deputy Prosecutor General Galymzhan Koigeldiyev declined to comment on Russia’s entry ban and advised those raising allegations to contact the National Security Committee, noting that matters related to mercenary activity fall within the security services’ jurisdiction. Shortly afterward, the Committee confirmed that it had “taken the information into account” and that verification measures were underway. The article also references comments by Russian designer Artemy Lebedev, who suggested the entry ban could be linked to tensions surrounding the show “What Happened Next,” which briefly moved to the Russian platform VK Video before returning to YouTube. Lebedev described the 50-year ban as excessive and speculated that a minor immigration violation may have been used as grounds. His remarks reflect personal interpretation rather than an official explanation. According to unnamed sources cited in Russian media, Saburov’s fee for a 25-minute performance exceeds $20,000. Despite the controversy, he continues to perform at private events in Kazakhstan, although such fee estimates are difficult to independently verify. Separately, debate has intensified in Russia over new restrictions affecting the Telegram messaging platform. Kazakh political scientist Marat Shibutov commented on the issue on his Telegram channel, naming senior Russian officials whom he believes bear responsibility for the decision. VK is led by CEO Vladimir Kiriyenko, the son of Kremlin official Sergei Kiriyenko. Public reporting has described VK’s development as aligned with state policy promoting domestic digital platforms. In early February, Russia introduced new restrictions on Telegram, with the Kremlin attributing the measures to alleged legal non-compliance by the platform.

EU Sanctions

Kyrgyzstan’s Sanctions Dilemma: Drifting from the Central Asian Consensus?

While Kyrgyzstan is improving relations with the United States by hosting the second B5+1 forum in its capital, with the participation of U.S. Special Representative for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor, Bishkek’s relations with Brussels appear to be deteriorating. The European Union is discussing possible sanctions against Kyrgyzstan, and is reportedly considering a ban on the import of certain categories of goods into the country. According to Bloomberg, which was the first to disclose details of the EU’s upcoming 20th package of sanctions against Russia, Brussels is prepared to restrict Kyrgyzstan’s trade in machine tools and radio equipment over allegations of helping the Kremlin circumvent existing bans. The Kyrgyz government has already responded to the report. On February 3, Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiev held a video conference with EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, during which the sides agreed to engage in “constructive and substantive dialogue on issues related to sanctions.” Further discussions are expected during O’Sullivan’s visit to Bishkek at the end of the month, scheduled for February 26. Even before the EU representative’s visit, Kyrgyz officials have publicly commented on the prospect of sanctions, offering a clear sense of the tone likely to shape the dialogue. In an interview with Azattyk, Amangeldiev stressed that Kyrgyzstan has imposed restrictions on the export of dual-use goods, including weapons, and therefore sees no grounds for measures against the state. He also suggested that any potential restrictions might not take the form of sanctions against Kyrgyzstan itself, but rather recommendations to individual EU member states not to supply certain goods to the republic. Deputy Chairman of Kyrgyzstan's Cabinet of Ministers, Edil Baisalov, emphasized that Bishkek consistently communicates its position to European officials, arguing that its “trade relations with Russia do not cause any damage to third countries.” As a negotiating advantage, Baisalov pointed to what he described as growing international attention toward Kyrgyzstan. “Compared to the past, interest in our country and in the history of its socio-economic strengthening has grown significantly,” Baisalov said. “I believe the European authorities have enough patience, wisdom, and understanding not to damage relations with the Kyrgyz Republic. There is no need to create the impression that they intend to restrict us in any way or undermine our policy of national development and economic strengthening.” At the same time, small and medium-sized businesses in Kyrgyzstan are already facing serious difficulties due to the existing sanctions regime, even though these measures do not directly target the country’s key economic sectors. The logistics sector has been hit hardest. Delivery times have increased, costs have risen, visa requirements for drivers have tightened, and the volume of required documentation has expanded significantly. International payments have emerged as a separate challenge. Transfers in dollars, euros, and other currencies are increasingly delayed. Banks demand additional explanations, scrutinize the origin of funds, and in some cases suspend transactions indefinitely, creating cash-flow gaps. To reduce risks, companies are spreading payments across multiple banks: one for ruble transactions, another for Europe, and a third for...

Ukraine

Turkmenistan Citizen Fighting for Russia in Ukraine Surrenders to Ukrainian Drone

Maksat Meredov, a citizen of Turkmenistan who had been fighting on the Russian side in Ukraine, surrendered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by signaling a drone with a white flag. The drone operator guided him toward Ukrainian positions. According to the drone operator from the Ukrainian Pomsta (“Revenge”) brigade, military personnel were conducting reconnaissance using a thermal imager when they detected Meredov. After tracking his movements to a hiding place, the area was targeted and destroyed. Meredov then emerged, waving a white object. Recognizing it as a surrender gesture, Ukrainian forces ceased fire. The drone activated its flashing lights and maneuvered to indicate the direction Meredov should follow. Footage showed him cold and exhausted, stopping frequently and attempting to eat snow. In response, Ukrainian troops dropped water, a note, and later a hot water bottle to him via drone. During a filmed interrogation, the captive identified himself as Maksat Dovletmuradovich Meredov, born on March 24, 1980, and a citizen of Turkmenistan. “I recently came to Russia to earn money for myself and my family. The contract was signed on November 14, 2025,” Meredov stated. The video also displayed his documents. According to his passport, Meredov was born in the village of Akmeidan in Karakum district, Mary province, one of the most disadvantaged regions of Turkmenistan, known for persistent water shortages. After the rerouting of the Karakum Canal, reports indicated that some settlements in the region experienced flooding and livestock deaths, while others faced dried irrigation channels, forcing residents to drink from puddles. A Russian-issued document confirmed his identity and showed that Meredov arrived in Russia in June 2025 for work in the Krasnoyarsk territory before moving to the Vladimir region. He later signed a one-year contract with military unit 11097, based in the city of Voronezh. Similar incidents involving Turkmen nationals have been reported. In 2024, a mercenary from the town of Turkmenbashi fought in Ukraine for six months. His family used his earnings to purchase an apartment but later had to sell the property to pay a bribe to close a criminal case against him.

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Security Risks Around Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports Ripple Through European Markets

Europe’s oil market is becoming increasingly exposed to disruption as security risks rise along export routes used by Kazakhstan, which the European Union has long viewed as a reliable alternative to Russian supply. The risks extend far beyond Ukraine itself. “Russia continues escalating its attacks and targeting civilians and civilian infrastructures,” an EU spokesperson told The Times of Central Asia. “Russia’s brutal and unacceptable attacks have left people without hot water, heating and electricity in the current weather conditions. Russia’s war of aggression has also severely impacted Black Sea maritime security, including through its use of shadow fleet vessels to circumvent international sanctions, and the persistent attacks on civilian and port infrastructure in Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine has accepted an unconditional ceasefire in March 2025. It shows that Russia does not want peace. The EU and the entire international community need to put pressure on Russia to stop its war. “Kazakhstan plays a crucial role for Europe’s energy security and has been for years a reliable partner in diversifying energy sources and ensuring a stable supply for European markets. More than 12% of all the oil imported by the EU comes from Kazakhstan, contributing to the diversification of energy sources and reducing dependency on a limited number of suppliers. The continuous and safe functioning of the supply chain is hence key also for Europe. “Maritime safety and security in the Black Sea is a fundamental component of the new EU strategic approach to the region, adopted in May 2025. The Black Sea is a critical connector between Europe, the Southern Caucasus, Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. Ensuring maritime security and safety in this region is vital not only for the littoral States but also for broader European interests and for many partner countries, as it supports trade flows, sustainable supply chains and enhanced connectivity.” Kazakhstan produced roughly 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 and exported the bulk of that volume. More than 80% of its crude exports move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, which links oil fields in western Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. From there, tankers ship the oil mainly to European refiners. Under normal conditions, the pipeline carries roughly 1.3 million barrels per day, making it one of the most important single supply routes for non-Russian crude entering Europe. Recent events have shown how sensitive European markets are to any disruption along that corridor. On January 14, Bloomberg reported that oil prices in Europe strengthened after shipments of CPC Blend fell short of expectations. Traders cited reduced availability of the light, low-sulfur crude, which is favored by European refiners, forcing buyers to seek alternative grades at higher prices. Despite the recent tightening, traders say the market has so far absorbed disruptions without severe shortages, reflecting high inventories and flexible refinery operations, though that buffer could narrow if attacks persist. That supply pressure followed a series of security incidents in the Black Sea, where commercial shipping and port infrastructure have...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Kazakhstan Opens Criminal Probe Over Calls to Attack CPC Oil Pipeline

Kazakhstan has opened a criminal investigation into public statements that authorities say encouraged attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main export route for the country’s crude oil, after months of disruption at the system’s Black Sea terminal turned a foreign security risk into a domestic legal and political issue. Prosecutor General Berik Asylov confirmed the case in a written reply to a parliamentary inquiry on January 6. "On December 17, 2025, the Astana City Police Department launched a pre-trial investigation under Part 1 of Article 174 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (incitement of social, national, tribal, racial, class, or religious discord) into negative public comments regarding damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium," the Prosecutor General stated. The authorities have yet to name suspects, publish the posts under review, or announce any arrests. The file remains at the evidence-gathering stage, and prosecutors have left open whether any charges will ultimately be filed under Article 174, or reclassified under other provisions once investigators assess the intent and impact. The probe follows a request by Mazhilis deputy, Aidos Sarym, who said that some social media commentary crossed from opinion into encouragement of harm to strategic infrastructure, endorsed attacks on the CPC, and urged further strikes on critical sites. The political sensitivity is rooted in the 1,500-kilometer pipeline’s central role in Kazakhstan’s economy. CPC carries crude from western Kazakhstan to a marine terminal near Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where the oil is loaded onto tankers for delivery to global markets. The pipeline is owned by a consortium that includes Kazakhstan, Russia, and several international energy companies. The system dominates Kazakhstan’s oil export economy. More than 80% of the country’s crude oil exports move through the CPC route, which also carries more than 1% of global oil supplies, making it a pressure point for both markets and state revenue when operations are disrupted. The investigation follows a period of repeated disruption at the Novorossiysk terminal in late 2025, after a naval drone strike damaged one of the offshore loading points used to transfer oil from the pipeline to tankers. The damage forced operators to suspend loadings and move vessels away while inspections and repairs were carried out, sharply reducing export capacity. The CPC relies on single-point moorings positioned at sea to load crude onto tankers, a critical constraint on the entire system; when one goes offline, capacity drops quickly. The pipeline cannot store large volumes, forcing upstream producers to cut or slow output. By late December, the impact was visible in Kazakhstan’s production figures. Oil output fell by about 6% during the month after the late November strike constrained exports. Production at the Tengiz oilfield, the country’s largest, dropped by roughly 10%. Exports of CPC Blend crude fell to about 1.08 million barrels per day in December, the lowest level in more than a year, as the terminal operated with only one functioning mooring while others remained offline due to damage and maintenance. Operational pressures continued as...

Sanctions

UK Adds Uzbekistan-Based Companies and Tashkent Businessman to Russia Sanctions List

Britain has expanded its Russia sanctions regime to include four companies based in Uzbekistan and one Tashkent-born businessman, according to official documents published on 18 December 2025. The measures form part of a wider update that added 24 new individuals and entities to the UK’s consolidated sanctions list under the Russia (Sanctions) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. The update was set out in a Financial Sanctions Notice issued by HM Treasury and an accompanying Foreign Office policy paper, “List of Russia sanctions targets, 18 December 2025.” The documents confirm that all newly designated names are now subject to an asset freeze and associated financial restrictions in the UK. The four Uzbekistan-linked companies named in the notice are Fargona Kimyo Zavodi LLC, also listed under the English alias Fergana Chemical Plant; Gelion Business Trade MCHJ, registered in Tashkent; Raw Materials Cellulose MCHJ, based in the Jizzakh region; and LLC JV Chemistry International, located in the Navoi region. Each company is subject to an asset freeze, requiring that any funds or economic resources they own or control in the UK be frozen and that UK persons do not make funds or resources available to them without a licence. The Treasury notice also applies restrictions on trust services. Under UK sanctions law, this restricts UK persons from providing trust services to or for the benefit of designated persons unless an exemption applies or a licence is granted. Compliance guidance is published by the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation and linked through the British government’s Sanctions List. The documents do not provide detailed descriptions of the companies’ commercial activities, instead using standard statutory wording. In each case, the Secretary of State notes that there are reasonable grounds to suspect the entity “is or has been involved in destabilising Ukraine or undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty or independence of Ukraine,” including by making available goods or technologies that could contribute to those outcomes. The sanctions update also includes Rustam Muminov, born in Tashkent in 1953. The Treasury notice lists his nationalities as Uzbek, Israeli, and Russian. Muminov is subject to an asset freeze and trust services restrictions, with the reason stated being that the British authorities have reasonable grounds to suspect he has been involved in destabilizing Ukraine by providing financial services or by making available funds, economic resources, goods, or technology. The Foreign Office policy paper groups the new designations with others added on the same date, which include entities linked to Russia’s energy sector, financial circumvention, and the military-industrial complex. The government says the measures are intended to limit access to financial services and resources that could support Russia’s actions against Ukraine.