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Kazakhstan Leads Central Asia in AI Readiness

According to IMF data analyzed by Ranking.kz, Kazakhstan ranks as the leading Central Asian country in global artificial intelligence (AI) readiness, while Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are at the bottom of the regional standings. The AI readiness index, which covers 174 countries, evaluates factors such as digital infrastructure, human capital, technological innovation, and legal regulation. It draws on data from the World Bank, the International Labor Organization, and other sources. Kazakhstan ranks within the top 50 countries for AI readiness, holding 48th place with an index score of 0.55, just behind Russia, which ranks 47th. McKinsey & Company has noted Kazakhstan’s use of AI to enhance public services, particularly through geographic information systems and spatial data. For instance, Kazakhstan has employed a statistical model that integrates geographic, demographic, and economic data to assess infrastructure needs across 6,293 villages, identifying 3,500 villages with the highest potential to cover 90% of the rural population. This approach enables the government to deliver essential services and infrastructure more effectively to rural areas. Following Kazakhstan in 48th place, with a noticeable gap, is Kyrgyzstan (99th with 0.43). Tajikistan ranks 123rd with an index of 0.37, and neighboring Uzbekistan is in 131st place with an index of 0.35, placing it last among Central Asian and EAEU countries. Turkmenistan was not included in the IMF index.

Aging Kyrgyzstan: Economic Challenges and Empowering Seniors

According to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, the country's population is aging quickly. Based on UN data, the agency predicts that the proportion of elderly people (65 and over) in Kyrgyzstan will significantly increase by 2030. According to the analysis, currently, 5.7% of the total population is elderly, and this figure may reach 8% by 2030. Speaking about the processes associated with an aging population, experts have highlighted social funds related to the payment of pensions, benefits, and other contributions to people who have finished their careers. Additionally, an aging population will produce fewer materials and public goods, and state tax revenues will decrease, which could lead to a decline in the country's standard of living. However, economist Kubanychbek Idinov sees this as a manageable problem. The 61-year-old believes that the increase in the average age is indicative of an improvement in Kyrgyzstan's standard of living. “The country's GDP is growing, and state budget spending on social projects is increasing. But we need to give pensioners more opportunities to work. This will be a great help to the revenue side of the budget. People who retire can work elsewhere. This allows them not to rely on their pensions alone, to have additional income,” Idinov told The Times of Central Asia. Most retirees in Kyrgyzstan continue to work. Idinov said they start small businesses or enterprises and pass on their experience to young people. According to official data, the country currently has about 150,000 working pensioners. “It is necessary at the state level to support trade unions' work in attracting retirees to work. It is possible to work at the level of local authorities. Then the issue of small pension growth will not be acute for people and the state,” Idinov said. On a related matter, Kyrgyz sociologists say that despite a slowdown, the country's population grew by almost half a million people (+7.8%) over the year. Kyrgyzstan remains the second-largest Central Asian country in terms of population growth after Tajikistan. “The increase in population, despite a slight decrease in the growth rate, is provided by the excess of births over deaths with a negative balance of external migration,” the report of the National Statistical Committee states. The large number of labor migrants returning home is also helping to combat the decrease in the number of able-bodied people. In 2007, experts from the UN Demography Department suggested evaluating countries as those with an old population if more than 7% of its citizens are over 65 years old.

Uzbekistan Leads in Central Asia’s Military Strength Rankings

U.S. News recently published its list of the world’s strongest militaries, with Russia, the U.S., and Israel in the top three. The Times of Central Asia reviewed this rating in the Central Asian countries section. Uzbekistan ranks 19th globally in military strength, the highest in the region. However, U.S. News ranks the country 74th out of 78 in its “Best Countries” category, citing an economy still largely driven by cotton. Uzbekistan remains a major global player in cotton, as the fifth-largest exporter and seventh-largest producer worldwide. Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, ranks 22nd for military strength and is noted for its vast reserves of fossil fuels, uranium, and other minerals. Much of Kazakhstan’s economic growth has been oil-driven, and the country ranks 83rd on the “Best Countries” list. U.S. News ranked countries based on cultural influence, entrepreneurship, heritage, openness to business, quality of life, and social purpose. In a separate ranking, the Global Firepower Military Index for 2024 lists Kazakhstan as Central Asia’s top military power, placing it at 58th worldwide. Uzbekistan has fallen by three places since last year’s rankings — the only country in the region not to show an improvement — and is now in the 65th position. In the bottom half of the table, Turkmenistan lies in 83rd place, while Kyrgyzstan is 100th. Global Firepower puts Tajikistan in 107th place, making it the region’s weakest army.

Kyrgyz Economy Is on the Rise

Government statistics and independent analysts note growth in almost all sectors of the Kyrgyz economy The most significant increase is recorded in the construction sector, which in turn, has positively impacted other sectors, such as industrial production, agriculture, and foreign trade. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, macroeconomics expert Nasirdin Shamshiev remarked: “This year, due to favorable weather, twice as many beets, and one and a half times more barley and wheat were harvested. Due to the high rate of construction of small hydropower plants, the energy sector is also showing good growth. In addition, the production of construction materials has increased, and textile production is growing. Exports for the first eight months of 2024 increased by 13.5%, and imports by 8.1%." According to Shamshiev, the good economic dynamics were influenced by several factors: the strengthening of fiscal rules, fighting corruption and illegal financial flows, and a balanced monetary policy. Earlier, Kyrgyzstan' president Akylbek Japarov, held a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, during which the socio-economic development results for the first nine months of 2024 were summarized. According to Japarov, Kyrgyzstan's GDP grew by 8.4%. However, gold exports, traditionally the economy's leading revenue-generating sector, have declined this year; a situation previously reported by The Times of Central Asia with reference to a decline in production at Kumtor, the country's largest gold mine. According to the Prime Minister's information, 37% of the growth in the construction sector provides an increase in industrial production in Kyrgyzstan. Data also shows that over the past year, following the launch of the Chinese oil refinery Junda near Bishkek, the production of refined petroleum products almost doubled. Hailing the success of recent ventures, Japarov stated: “The growth rate of our economy is nothing short of encouraging. We are now implementing the Leap of the Leopard program and approaching our set ambitious goals and objectives."

Decrease Expected in Central Asia’s Economic Growth

According to the World Bank, economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to slow to 3.3% this year, down from 3.5% in 2023. This is much lower than the average growth of 4.1% seen between 2000 and 2019, and is not enough for many of the region's middle-income countries to become high-income. Growth in the region has mainly been driven by an increase in people's spending, rising wages, and government policies, while demand from outside the area, especially from the EU, remains weak. Although the average yearly inflation rate had dropped to 3.6% by August 2024, from 4.6% at the end of last year, it is still higher than the 2.7% average seen in 2018-2019. Prices of goods have grown more slowly in most countries, but prices for services remain high because of rising labor costs. Some central banks have lowered interest rates as inflation has slowed, but are cautious. Government spending has not been reduced in most of the region's countries and indeed, has dramatically increased, especially on public wages, pensions, social benefits, and defense. The economies of Central Asia are expected to grow by 4.3% in 2024; slower than the 5.6% growth seen last year. In Kazakhstan, growth is predicted to slow to 3.4%, down from 5.1% in 2023, mainly because the expansion of the Tengiz oil field is taking longer, and the government is spending less. For other Central Asian countries, growth estimates have been raised by an average of nearly one percentage due to increased consumer spending, more government spending, and ongoing support from money sent home by workers in Russia and trade with Russia. However, despite these improvements, the growth per capita GDP (the average income per person) in Central Asia is only expected to be 2.7% this year, making it the slowest in the region, apart fromTurkey. The Central Asian sub region, with growth expected at 5%, will outpace all other sub regions in 2025. This is driven primarily by renewed strong growth in Kazakhstan amid rising oil production. However, growth in the rest of Central Asia is projected to slow as trading and remittance flows from Russia normalize. The lowest median consumer price growth rate was recorded in the South Caucasus, at 1.5% year-on-year in August 2024. In contrast, Central Asia had the highest median consumer price inflation rate, at 6.1%. This rate reflects 10% inflation in Uzbekistan, driven by removing energy subsidies in May 2024.

Kyrgyzstan Reports Growing Return Migration

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Labor, Social Security and Migration and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) announced the results of their assessment of the country’s migration trends on October 15. The statistics show that return migration increased from 2020 to April 2024, and the number of migrants returning to Kyrgyzstan is continuing to grow. The number of returning migrants increased by 85% in 2023 compared to the previous year. Kyrgyzstan’s southern Osh and Batken regions and the northern Chui region lead the figures in the number of returning labor migrants. According to the report, the number of Kyrgyz citizens who plan to migrate once again to the country from which they have just returned has decreased by half. In June, the Speaker of the Kyrgyz Parliament, Nurlanbek Shakiyev said that more Kyrgyz people are returning from abroad, and over the past two years, the numbers have reached 241,000. Shakiyev cited the opening of many new industrial enterprises in Kyrgyzstan in recent years as a reason for growing return migration, emphasizing that Kyrgyz citizens can now earn more at home. Over the past 30 years, hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz citizens have left their homeland as labor migrants, mainly for Russia. In the last couple of years, however, there has been a growing trend of return migration largely caused by Russia's deteriorating economic situation, depreciation of the ruble, stricter rules and harsher attitudes toward Central Asian immigrants, and increasing attempts by the Russian authorities to recruit Central Asian immigrants (with or without Russian passports) to join Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. According to a 2022 census by Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee, more than 876,000 Kyrgyz citizens (close to 15% of the country’s population) migrated abroad. The top five destination countries for Kyrgyz migrants were Russia (870,304), Kazakhstan (2,158), Turkey (1,828), Germany (336), and South Korea (240). The IOM report states that 328,458 Kyrgyz nationals have lived abroad since 2020. As of 2023, 79% live in Russia, 4.5% in Kazakhstan, and 4% in Turkey. According to the report, the primary drivers of migration were dissatisfaction with wages in Kyrgyzstan (26%), lack of job opportunities (17%), financial difficulties and debts (16%), and a perceived lack of prosperity in their homeland (10%). According to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, in 2023, remittances from Kyrgyz labor migrants totaled $2.144 billion, compared to $1.873 billion in 2022.