Our People > Dr. Robert M. Cutler

Dr. Robert M. Cutler

Senior Editor and Contributor

Robert M. Cutler has written and consulted on Central Asian affairs for over 30 years at all levels. He was a founding member of the Central Eurasian Studies Society’s executive board and founding editor of its Perspectives publication. He has written for Asia Times, Foreign Policy Magazine, The National Interest, Euractiv, Radio Free Europe, National Post (Toronto), FSU Oil & Gas Monitor, and many other outlets. divider He directs the NATO Association of Canada’s Energy Security Program, where he is also senior fellow, and is a practitioner member at the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Complexity and Innovation. Educated at MIT, the Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva), and the University of Michigan, he was for many years a senior researcher at Carleton University’s Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, and is past chairman of the Montreal Press Club’s Board of Directors.

Articles

Strategic Partnership Bilateral Relations France Nuclear

Tokayev and Macron Forge New Path for French Investments in Kazakhstan

The Paris summit between Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and France’s President Emmanuel Macron was a significant event in their countries' evolving bilateral relations. The high-level discussions were centered on deepening cooperation across trade, economic investment, cultural, and humanitarian issues. The talks have reaffirmed and broadened existing frameworks, foretokening robust and diversified collaboration. The historical foundation of Kazakh-French relations, particularly in the economic sphere, has long been strong. French multinational corporations, such as TotalEnergies, have played significant roles in Kazakhstan’s major energy projects, including the Kashagan oil field. At the recently concluded summit, President Tokayev held meetings with prominent French business figures, seeking to enhance investment flows and economic partnerships across the renewable energy, infrastructure, and technology sectors. France recognizes Kazakhstan’s strategic significance in Central Asia and seeks to deepen the partnership, which also complements Europe’s generally expanding engagement with the region. The summit builds on a series of annual encounters that sustain the momentum in Kazakhstan–France relations. In November 2023, a year after President Tokayev’s trip to France in November 2022, President Macron made an official visit to Kazakhstan. This visit highlighted the shared interests between the two countries and underscored the importance of their growing cooperation. The meeting not only strengthened political dialogue but also laid the groundwork for further economic, cultural, and technological collaboration, reflecting a commitment to long-term partnership. The regularity of summits between Kazakhstan and France, besides indicating the pragmatic nature of their relationship, speaks to the personal rapport between Tokayev and Macron. The sustained, high-level engagement indicates a mutual appreciation for reliable and constructive diplomacy. The Paris summit continues the momentum and deepens the strategic significance of relations between Kazakhstan and France relations, as the new agreements demonstrate their common intention to leverage shared interests in pursuit of more comprehensive cooperation. At the 2022 meetings, 25 economic agreements were signed amounting to a value of $3 billion, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. If we include the agreements signed at the 2023 meetings, then the newest agreements bring the overall total to $6.4 billion. Bilateral trade reached $4 billion from January to August this year, representing a 44.7 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Kazakhstan’s exports to France for the same period rose by 45.2 percent to $2.7 billion for the first eight months of 2024. These exports were heavily concentrated in crude oil and uranium. Just ahead of Tokayev's visit to Paris, the city hosted the 13th meeting of the Kazakhstan–France Business Council. Twenty-four documents were signed there, worth $2 billion, which spanned the agro-industrial, information-technology, light industry, medicine and mining sectors, not to mention a continuing interest in the energy sector. Kazakhstan’s proactive engagement, including its receptivity to French participation in the NPP consortium is in the line of the country's balanced and pragmatic approach to international partnerships. For France, this partnership deepens its footprint in Central Asia while also promoting the policy goals of broader energy diversification and geopolitical influence. Kazakhstan represents 90 percent of France’s trade with...

2 weeks ago

Nuclear Referendum Geopolitics Nuclear Energy

Inside Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Play

Kazakhstan recently held a referendum in which approximately 71% of voters supported the initiative to construct the country's first nuclear power plant (NPP). This project is part of Kazakhstan's broader strategy to diversify its energy mix, reduce dependence on coal, and address chronic energy shortages that have affected the country for years. As the world's largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan has abundant natural resources that make nuclear power a viable and strategic option. The government views nuclear power as crucial for enhancing energy independence and security, while also contributing to environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is for nuclear energy to contribute about 5% of the national generation mix by 2035, marking a significant shift towards cleaner energy sources. A strategic opportunity for Kazakhstan The NPP project is expected to be undertaken by an international consortium, the members of which are yet to be selected. Kazakhstan's balanced multi-vector foreign policy encourages the involvement of various potential partners, such as Russia's Rosatom, China's National Nuclear Corporation, South Korea's Hydro & Nuclear Power, and France's EDF. Kazakhstan's strategy for involving an international consortium aims to reduce potential geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Russia's Rosatom. Rosatom is a key player in the nuclear energy sector, but Western sanctions against Russian companies raise concerns about its involvement in Kazakhstan's project. By involving multiple international partners, Kazakhstan aims to prevent overreliance on any single country, such as Russia, and maintain a diversified approach to foreign relations. This approach allows Kazakhstan to leverage advanced technologies from multiple sources, foster innovation, improve efficiency, and reduce risks associated with the NPP's construction and operation. It also ensures that the best practices from leading global enterprises can be integrated into the project, enhancing overall safety and performance. Moreover, the involvement of international partners is likely to facilitate knowledge transfer, enabling Kazakhstan to build domestic expertise in nuclear energy. The estimated cost for the NPP is between $10 and $12 billion, with the expectation that contractors will secure financing. An international consortium could attract investment from multiple sources, including their own countries, thereby reducing Kazakhstan's financial burden for the project, inculcating resilience against uncertainties such as currency fluctuations, and distributing the risks among several stakeholders. As sanctions against Rosatom and broader economic concerns make sole reliance on Russian intolerably risky, attracting investment from multiple international stakeholders will also enable Kazakhstan to spread financial risks, thus enhancing the project's viability. A key strategic opportunity for Kazakhstan is to develop self-sufficiency in uranium enrichment. As the world's largest producer of uranium, Kazakhstan has the potential to enrich its own yellowcake, i.e., impure uranium obtained by processing uranium ore. Developing this capability would reduce Kazakhstan's dependence on Russia for enriched uranium imports and significantly enhance its energy independence. Japan serves as a relevant model for this, as it enriches uranium domestically under international safeguards for civilian nuclear use. Kazakhstan could pursue a similar approach under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision, ensuring compliance with its non-proliferation commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation...

1 month ago

COP29 Energy Security Rare Earth Elements Green Energy Climate Change

Central Asia’s Increasing Profile in Global Climate Policy

Between 11 and 22 November, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the run-up to this global event, Central Asian countries have been continuing their integration into the cooperative implementation of the global energy and environmental agenda. Such measures include, but are not limited to, commitments to reducing methane emissions, contributions to green supply chains, and — for Kazakhstan in particular — its nuclear policy based on multi-vector diplomacy. One may anticipate their especially enhanced presence in view of the fact that several them have strategic-partner relations with Azerbaijan, which is cooperating with them also in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian International Trade Corridor (TITR or "Middle Corridor"). The Central Asian states are using their implementation of global energy and environmental priorities as an instrument to integrate further into the international system. Following their participation at COP28 (30 November – 23 December 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates), all five of them signed the Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. They have also stepped up their contributions to green supply chains, signalling their ambitions to become more important players in global geoeconomics. At the same time, these initiatives also seek to promote domestic economic diversification. Kazakhstan, in particular, continues to play a central role with its multi-vector approach, notably in the nuclear energy sector, positioning itself at the intersection of sustainability and global energy security. Kazakhstan holds 12% of global uranium reserves. It became the world’s leading producer in 2009 and in 2022 accounted for 43% of global production. In Central Asia, Uzbekistan has a Rosatom-sponsored NPP project under way, as does Kyrgyzstan. Along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in particular actively engaged in discussions on climate policy at COP28, acknowledging the need to balance their resource-rich economies with global sustainability goals. One of the key outcomes was the region's collective involvement in the Global Methane Pledge. Global environmental policy bodies have assessed that methane emissions are a significant concern for global climate policy. The effect of this assessment will be to load still greater financial burdens on oil and gas companies by making development of hydrocarbon deposits, and the transmission of hydrocarbon resources to market, more expensive. Kazakhstan’s commitment to cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030 exemplifies this shift, signalling a readiness to reform domestic industries in line with global climate targets. Turkmenistan has the highest methane emissions intensity in the region, but challenges remain in terms of monitoring and implementation. Uzbekistan’s leadership was also highlighted at COP28. The country’s ambitious plans to scale up solar and wind energy by 2030 align with broader regional goals of reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. This is Tashkent's (and the region's) way of enhancing their profile as "good global citizens" as policy decisions by political bodies at the international level increasingly emphasize decarbonization. Uzbekistan has made strides in "green supply chains" by focusing on the renewable energy sector...

1 month ago

Nuclear Referendum Nuclear power Energy

Kazakhstan Referendum Approves First Nuclear Power Plant

More than 71 percent of voters have approved the October 6 referendum for constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). Turnout was over 63 percent, easily surpassing the 50-percent barrier for validation. This result closely tracks the results of a telephone survey conducted by the Democracy Institute on September 30 and released by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies. That survey found 73 percent of those asked to favor construction of a nuclear power plant. It also found that 62 percent of respondents intended to vote, not far from the actual participation rate. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had announced the referendum initiative in a message to the public in September 2023. In that address, he emphasized that Kazakhstan, as the world's largest producer of uranium, should also have its own nuclear-power generation capabilities. Following this announcement, a series of meetings between representatives of various government agencies and the public were organized across all regions of the country. During these meetings, the plans for constructing an NPP were discussed in detail, with an emphasis on the potential benefits of nuclear energy for Kazakhstan’s energy independence. Kazakhstan has held a significant position in the global nuclear-energy market since the late 2000s, accounting for approximately 40 percent of global uranium production. Despite this advantageous position, the country faces severe electricity shortages, which are projected to worsen by 2025, especially in the rapidly growing southern regions. Reliance on aging thermal power plants, many of which are equipped with components that have been in service for over 50 years, has only exacerbated the problem. Frequent energy shortages in multiple regions have left citizens without heat during harsh winter conditions, often with temperatures dropping well below zero. The proposed site for the nuclear power plant is in Ulken, located in the Almaty region. The shortlist of potential builders for the NPP includes companies from China, South Korea, Russia, France, and the United States. The inclusion of companies from multiple countries is aimed at ensuring competitive bidding and securing the best possible technology for the project. Tokayev has indicated a personal preference for an “international consortium made up of global companies equipped with cutting-edge technologies.” Developing an NPP will help the country to achieve energy independence and meet carbon-neutrality goals. Without an NPP, rolling blackouts will be necessary and dependence on electricity imports from Russia will continue. However, the legacy of the Semipalatinsk test site looms large, creating a challenging decision for Kazakh citizens. Kazakhstan's nuclear history spans from Soviet-era testing to present-day energy challenges. The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, established in 1947, was where the Soviet Union conducted over 468 nuclear tests, leaving long-lasting environmental and health impacts on the local population. The fallout from these tests has burdened the national health-care system for decades, exacerbated by nuclear fallout from Chinese testing at Lop Nor. In response to these consequences, then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev closed the Semipalatinsk site in 1991, and by 1994, Kazakhstan had relinquished its nuclear arsenal and became a non-nuclear state. Nazarbayev’s rise to power...

1 month ago

TITR Trade and Logistics Middle Corridor Azerbaijan China

China Officially Joins the Middle Corridor

It was announced during the 8th International Silk Road Expo in Xi’an in September 2024 that China will formally join the Middle Corridor under the guise of participation by the China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRTC). This move signals a growing reliance on Central Asia’s trade-route infrastructure potential. China's shift to overland routes is part of a broader strategy to diversify away from traditional maritime routes through chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca, which carry geopolitical risk. Kazakhstan's strategic geographic location naturally makes it indispensable to China’s trade, and infrastructure projects currently underway represent a key component of the Middle Corridor’s potential. In July 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ratified agreements with China aimed at further developing the Middle Corridor, enhancing both road and rail infrastructure. The country has already been upgrading its rail infrastructure, modernizing dry ports like Khorgos on the Chinese border, and expanding transit facilities at the Caspian Sea port of Aktau. The increased flow of goods through Kazakhstan is evident: over 212 container block trains have passed through the country by September 2024, with the number projected to exceed 300 by the year’s end. These build-outs, and particularly Kazakhstan’s modernization of its railways, go hand-in-hand with the recently finished improvements along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) line, which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia. The expansion of the BTK line's capacity from 1 million to 5 million tons per year has now been completed. As a result of all these efforts, the travel time for goods from China to the Black Sea has been reduced to just 10–12 days, highlighting the efficiency of the corridor. Azerbaijan also plays a crucial role in this economic ecosystem. Baku’s port of Alat serves as a critical transit point for cargo crossing between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s collaboration with Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Turkey has led to significant investments in expanding port facilities and upgrading railway systems beyond the crucial BTK link mentioned above. The result is a smoother, more reliable flow of goods from China to Europe. Azerbaijan is winning its bet to become a regional logistics hub. In addition, a Chinese consortium recently secured the contract for the construction of the Anaklia deep-sea port in Georgia, a strategically important site on the eastern edge of the Black Sea. The project was initially awarded to a Georgian-American consortium, but was cancelled in 2020 due to political and legal disputes. Following a new tender process this year, the Chinese consortium emerged as the sole bidder. If supporting infrastructure is adequately developed and the Black Sea’s cargo transit capacity can be significantly enhanced, then the Anaklia port could become a critical node in the Middle Corridor, enhancing its role in Eurasian trade and bolstering regional connectivity. China’s increased reliance on Central Asian, trans-Caspian, and South Caucasus routes is not just about efficiency. It is also a strategic diversification to mitigate the risks posed by geopolitical instability in other regions. Traditional sea routes through maritime choke-points as well as overland routes like...

2 months ago