Tajikistan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Agriculture

Tajik Scientists Turn to Mountain Agriculture to Combat Climate Challenges

In Tajikistan’s remote Yagnob Valley, at more than 2,300 meters above sea level, scientists have launched a pioneering agricultural experiment to adapt to the realities of a changing climate. For the first time, experimental fields have been established in this high-altitude region to test the viability of dozens of crop varieties under mountain conditions. The research, carried out by the Institute of Botany, Physiology, and Plant Genetics of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, has yielded promising results. All tested crops took root successfully, and new potato varieties produced harvests of up to 400 centners per hectare. Testing Crops in the High Mountains “Climate change forces us to seek unconventional solutions,” said Dr. Kurbonali Partoev, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences. “High-altitude zones with cooler temperatures, clean water, and fertile soils offer unique prospects for agricultural innovation.” This spring, scientists delivered seeds of potatoes, corn, sunflowers, chickpeas, peas, wheat, pumpkins, sorghum, tomatoes, and cucumbers to a plot maintained by local farmer Nekmakhmad Safarov. The objective was to observe how common lowland crops respond to high-altitude growing conditions. Following strict agronomic practices, applying fertilizers, watering, weeding, and monitoring plant development, researchers carefully tracked growth patterns and morphological changes. Potato Yields Surpass Expectations By August, the experimental site had become a thriving green expanse. Potato trials proved particularly fruitful, with more than 20 varieties from Tajikistan, Russia, and the Netherlands under evaluation. New Tajik varieties, named Tajikistan, Faizi Istiklol, Akademiya Milli1, Mastcho, Faizobod, Rasht, and Nilufar, achieved yields of 300-400 centners per hectare. “This is a significant indicator confirming their potential,” said agricultural scientist Mavlon Kurbonov. Russian varieties Sadon, Ariel, and Fasko yielded between 280 and 390 cwt/ha and were notably early-maturing, ripening 10 to 12 days ahead of others. Dutch varieties Picasso and Aladdin also performed well, reaching yields of up to 370 cwt/ha. Genetic Potential in a Mountain Laboratory Beyond yield, researchers observed an unusual abundance of flowering and the formation of seed berries among potato plants, traits enhanced by Yagnob’s cool, pest-free environment. “This is an extremely valuable genetic trait that opens up wide possibilities for breeding,” Partoev explained. “Yagnob offers ideal conditions, clean air, spring water, and fertile soil. It is a natural laboratory.” A Resource for the Future of Tajik Agriculture Encouraged by the initial success, researchers plan to expand their trials, introduce new crop varieties, and deepen their scientific studies. They believe the Yagnob Valley could evolve into both a research hub and a model for climate-resilient agriculture. “All the crops showed positive results. This encourages us to expand and innovate further,” Kurbonov concluded. “Yagnob has the potential to become a true natural laboratory for Tajikistan’s agricultural future.”

Earthquake

Afghanistan Appeals for Quake Relief; Central Asia Likely to Help

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which border Afghanistan, have often taken the lead among Central Asian countries in providing relief to Afghan communities after deadly earthquakes. Once again, Afghanistan is desperately in need after a 6.0 magnitude earthquake killed at least 800 people and injured many more in the eastern part of the country late Sunday. The Taliban government has appealed for international aid to help survivors of the quake as Afghanistan struggles with other problems, including the legacy of decades of war, a cut-off of U.S. aid for medical and other services under the administration of President Donald Trump, and the return of many Afghan citizens who were expelled from neighboring Pakistan and Iran. The death toll is likely to rise because some villages that were hit by the quake are in mountainous areas that are difficult to reach, and bad weather has hindered rescue efforts. There was devastation across four eastern provinces in Afghanistan, including Nangarhar and Kunar, according to the United Nations. The U.S. Geological Survey said the epicenter of the earthquake was 27 kilometers east-northeast of the Afghan city of Jalalabad, which is Nangarhar’s provincial capital and lies near the border with Pakistan. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan “expressed deep condolences to the leadership of Afghanistan in connection with the numerous human casualties as a result of the earthquake in that country,” the presidency said on Telegram. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have provided humanitarian aid to Afghanistan after past earthquakes, including in 2022 and 2023, and have also helped with logistics as the United Nations and non-governmental groups transported relief supplies across their borders. Turkmenistan, which also shares a border with Afghanistan, has had involvement in such efforts as well. Central Asian countries have been building relations with Afghanistan in recent months, seeking to diversify trade routes while remaining concerned about security threats and other obstacles to stability. The Trans-Afghan Corridor construction project, for example, would provide easier access to Indian Ocean ports for regional countries. It would constitute a core railway that runs from Termez, southern Uzbekistan through Kabul, Afghanistan, and onward to Peshawar, Pakistan. Some Central Asian countries have expressed concern about human rights in Afghanistan, including the treatment of women and girls, but have not made the issue a centerpiece of their growing ties with the Taliban.

Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam Delayed as World Bank Freezes Funding

The future of Tajikistan’s flagship infrastructure project, the Rogun Hydropower Plant, has been thrown into doubt as the World Bank and other development partners delay financing until the government fulfils key conditions, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported. The move reflects growing concerns among environmental groups and downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan over the dam’s ecological risks to the Amu Darya River. A Strategic Asset With Mounting Costs The Rogun project, often hailed as Tajikistan’s greatest national undertaking, is central to the government’s ambitions for energy independence and regional electricity exports. But it also represents one of the country's most significant financial liabilities. Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings recently affirmed Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating at “B/B” with a stable outlook, but cautioned that Rogun is so costly it may never generate sufficient returns. The agency warned that the project could push the national budget into deficit by the end of 2025. Construction of the dam began in 1976 under the Soviet Union but was suspended during Tajikistan’s civil war. Attempts to restart the project in the early 2000s stalled over disagreements with Russian partners. In 2016, the government relaunched the project with support from the World Bank, awarding the main construction contract to Italy’s Salini Impregilo (now Webuild). That same year, the Vakhsh River was diverted and dam construction resumed. Two turbines were commissioned in 2018 and 2019, but significant progress has since slowed. To complete the plant, Tajikistan must install six additional turbines, raise the dam from its current 135 meters to the planned 335 meters, and secure an estimated $6.4 billion in new funding, roughly 40% of the country’s projected GDP for 2025. Conditions for Continued Support The World Bank has suspended further financing until Tajikistan presents a credible financing strategy that avoids unsustainable public debt, finalizes long-term electricity export agreements, and implements robust dam safety protocols. Without these conditions in place, the Bank has stated it cannot continue its support. Environmental opposition to the project has also intensified. The international coalition Rivers without Boundaries has warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce Amu Darya river flows by more than 25%, accelerating desertification and endangering the livelihoods of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Alexander Kolotov, a representative of the coalition, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the World Bank’s board is expected to review a report based on complaints filed by downstream communities, though no specific date has been set. Kolotov emphasized that Rogun poses one of the largest economic risks to Tajikistan and questioned whether international lenders should deepen their involvement. Broader Economic Fragility Tajikistan faces additional vulnerabilities. The country remains heavily reliant on remittances from labor migrants in Russia, lacks economic diversification, and is projected to lose its “least developed country” status in 2026, potentially curtailing its access to concessional aid and financing. For now, the Rogun Hydropower Plant stands as both a symbol of national aspiration and a looming financial gamble. Whether it becomes a cornerstone of regional energy security or a cautionary tale...

Drought

New Drought Monitoring System Could Save Tajikistan Millions

Tajikistan stands to save between $4 million and $6 million annually by adopting a satellite-based drought monitoring system designed to reduce crop losses and improve water management. Regional Project Launch On August 20, a major regional initiative to monitor droughts in Central Asia was launched in Tashkent. The project, spearheaded by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), will employ Earth Remote Sensing (ERS) technologies. The budget for the first phase is $300,000. The system will initially be piloted in Uzbekistan for two years, with implementation in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan expected by 2027. According to project analysts, Tajikistan’s annual savings will come from reduced agricultural losses, more efficient water use, and timely responses to drought conditions. Agriculture at High Risk Climate change poses a significant threat to Tajikistan. Over the past three decades, average temperatures in Central Asia have risen by 1.2°C, well above the global average of 0.85°C. Meanwhile, precipitation has decreased by 15-20%, increasing the frequency and severity of droughts. Agriculture accounts for 22% of Tajikistan’s GDP, and approximately 1.5 million people -- 15% of the population -- live in drought-prone areas. The country’s mountainous landscape and limited water resources further magnify the impact of even minor climate shifts. Current meteorological stations lack the capacity to monitor local variations. Weather conditions in mountainous areas can differ dramatically over short distances, rendering traditional methods insufficient. The new system will rely on satellite data from Europe’s Sentinel-2 and the U.S.’s Landsat-8. These satellites measure the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture, and surface temperature. Forecasts are updated every 5-10 days and have an accuracy rate of 80-85%. This will enable farmers to better plan irrigation schedules, select suitable crops, and conserve water resources. Implementation Timeline The initiative builds on a 2024 pilot project that developed monitoring methodologies and collected baseline data. In 2025, trials began in Uzbekistan (in Karakalpakstan and the Fergana Valley). Nationwide implementation in Uzbekistan is scheduled for 2026, followed by rollout in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2027. As part of the program, 150 specialists will be trained, and satellite data will be integrated into national meteorological systems. Tajikistan is expected to cut annual crop losses by 10-15%, boosting food security and delivering $4-6 million in economic benefits. The project also aims to mitigate social pressures in rural areas. In Uzbekistan, similar climate stresses displaced an estimated 120,000 people between 2018 and 2023 due to water shortages. By reducing drought-induced income loss, the system could help slow climate-related migration in Tajikistan as well. The initiative draws on successful international models. Australia’s Drought Watch program has cut agricultural losses by 12%, while India’s INSAT-3D satellite has improved forecast accuracy to 78%. Both approaches will be adapted for Central Asian conditions. Challenges Ahead Despite the promise, Tajikistan faces several hurdles. Internet access reaches only 55% of rural communities, there is a shortage of trained remote sensing specialists, and the system’s annual maintenance is estimated at $50,000. To address these challenges, ESCAP will provide...

Extreme Weather

World Bank Report: Central Asia Faces Rising Risks from Extreme Heat

Cities across Central Asia are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, posing significant risks to public health, economic productivity, and infrastructure, according to a new report by the World Bank. The study, which covers 70 urban areas in Europe and Central Asia, including Astana, Bishkek, Ashgabat, Tashkent, and several smaller cities in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, highlights the urgent need for heat adaptation strategies. Rising Mortality and Economic Losses The report finds that heat-related mortality is already a serious concern. In Ashgabat, an estimated 25-28 people per 100,000 die annually due to extreme heat. In Astana, Bishkek, and Tashkent, the toll is slightly lower, at approximately 19-21 deaths per 100,000. Without intervention, annual heat-related deaths in cities like Astana and Tashkent could rise dramatically, reaching between 10,000 and 23,000 by 2090. Economic impacts are also mounting. In 2023, higher temperatures resulted in the loss of over 87,000 full-time jobs across the region. Uzbekistan alone saw more than 22,000 job losses, while nearly 18,000 were reported in Azerbaijan. By 2050, heat-related economic losses could exceed 2% of GDP in some urban centers, such as Ashgabat. Infrastructure Under Strain Rising temperatures are damaging infrastructure across Central Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, extreme heat causes deterioration to nearly 200 kilometers of road annually, driving up repair costs and disrupting transportation. Kazakhstan is facing similar challenges: recent heatwaves have warped asphalt and concrete surfaces in the southern and northeastern regions of the country. Adaptation Measures and Challenges Despite these threats, the report outlines viable solutions. Urban greening, such as planting trees and creating shaded areas, can help cool city streets. Retrofitting buildings to improve thermal insulation without increasing energy use, establishing early warning systems, and creating cooling centers are also recommended. Urban planning strategies should incorporate climate resilience by using heat-tolerant materials and factoring climate risks into infrastructure design. Investment in parks and green spaces, alongside the use of heat vulnerability maps, can guide targeted interventions. However, the report warns that a lack of funding may hinder progress. Without innovative financing mechanisms, many adaptation plans could be stalled despite their potential to mitigate long-term risks. The World Bank concludes that while the impacts of rising temperatures are already being felt across Central Asia, timely action can prevent far more serious consequences. Policymakers are urged to prioritize heat adaptation to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure in an increasingly warming world.

Water Security

Melting Mountains, Drying Futures: Central Asia Confronts Water Emergency

Central Asian countries are mobilizing against an emerging water crisis as a United Nations report highlights the vulnerability of mountain water systems to climate change. Identifying ranges like the Tien Shan and the Pamirs, the UN World Water Development Report 2025 – Mountains and Glaciers: Water Towers – warns that rapid glacier melt and erratic snowfall are threatening vital freshwater supplies worldwide. According to the report, mountains provide up to 60% of the world’s annual freshwater flows, with over two billion people depending directly on water from mountain sources. This risk is particularly acute in Central Asia: a UN drought outlook noted that rising temperatures and shrinking snowpack in the high mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are accelerating glacier retreat, posing a “long-term threat to the region’s water security.” Half of rural mountain communities in developing countries already face food insecurity, and receding glaciers could impact two-thirds of all irrigated agriculture globally – a dire scenario for Central Asia’s irrigation-dependent economies. Rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya are fed by glacier runoff and support downstream agriculture, hydropower, and municipal needs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. But climate-driven glacial retreat, inefficient irrigation, and aging infrastructure have already pushed the region toward a breaking point. [caption id="attachment_33952" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Lake Karakul in Tajikistan is expanding due to melting glaciers; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kazakhstan Steps Up Leading the regional response, Kazakhstan has launched sweeping reforms to modernize its water infrastructure and governance. The country has committed to building 42 new reservoirs, refurbishing 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals, and investing heavily in digital water monitoring and conservation. Established in September 2023, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is coordinating the overhaul under an updated national Water Code. The government has also launched an integrated water portal, hydro.gov.kz, and pledged to digitize more than 3,500 kilometers of canals for precise flow tracking. In an address at the Astana International Forum, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev framed water as a “powerful driver of cooperation, sustainable development and regional stability,” urging closer regional coordination. Kazakhstan is also leading environmental restoration efforts. As the current chair of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), it is overseeing projects to rehabilitate the North Aral Sea, including raising the Kokaral Dam to restore water levels and fisheries. In 2024 alone, local irrigation reforms in Kyzylorda saved 200 million cubic meters of water, which was redirected toward the shrinking sea. [caption id="attachment_12017" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The Kokaral Dam in Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] International Support and Financing Kazakhstan’s strategy has been backed by a plethora of international partners. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has financed over €255 million in water and wastewater projects in Kazakhstan, including a €96.4 million sovereign loan for a new treatment plant in Aktobe. Meanwhile, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and UNDP have launched a regional partnership to expand access to modern irrigation, digitize water flows, and establish training centers. “We must act very quickly and...