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Melting Mountains, Drying Futures: Central Asia Confronts Water Emergency

Central Asian countries are mobilizing against an emerging water crisis as a United Nations report highlights the vulnerability of mountain water systems to climate change. Identifying ranges like the Tien Shan and the Pamirs, the UN World Water Development Report 2025 – Mountains and Glaciers: Water Towers – warns that rapid glacier melt and erratic snowfall are threatening vital freshwater supplies worldwide. According to the report, mountains provide up to 60% of the world’s annual freshwater flows, with over two billion people depending directly on water from mountain sources. This risk is particularly acute in Central Asia: a UN drought outlook noted that rising temperatures and shrinking snowpack in the high mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are accelerating glacier retreat, posing a “long-term threat to the region’s water security.” Half of rural mountain communities in developing countries already face food insecurity, and receding glaciers could impact two-thirds of all irrigated agriculture globally – a dire scenario for Central Asia’s irrigation-dependent economies. Rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya are fed by glacier runoff and support downstream agriculture, hydropower, and municipal needs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. But climate-driven glacial retreat, inefficient irrigation, and aging infrastructure have already pushed the region toward a breaking point. [caption id="attachment_33952" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Lake Karakul in Tajikistan is expanding due to melting glaciers; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kazakhstan Steps Up Leading the regional response, Kazakhstan has launched sweeping reforms to modernize its water infrastructure and governance. The country has committed to building 42 new reservoirs, refurbishing 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals, and investing heavily in digital water monitoring and conservation. Established in September 2023, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is coordinating the overhaul under an updated national Water Code. The government has also launched an integrated water portal, hydro.gov.kz, and pledged to digitize more than 3,500 kilometers of canals for precise flow tracking. In an address at the Astana International Forum, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev framed water as a “powerful driver of cooperation, sustainable development and regional stability,” urging closer regional coordination. Kazakhstan is also leading environmental restoration efforts. As the current chair of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), it is overseeing projects to rehabilitate the North Aral Sea, including raising the Kokaral Dam to restore water levels and fisheries. In 2024 alone, local irrigation reforms in Kyzylorda saved 200 million cubic meters of water, which was redirected toward the shrinking sea. [caption id="attachment_12017" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The Kokaral Dam in Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] International Support and Financing Kazakhstan’s strategy has been backed by a plethora of international partners. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has financed over €255 million in water and wastewater projects in Kazakhstan, including a €96.4 million sovereign loan for a new treatment plant in Aktobe. Meanwhile, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and UNDP have launched a regional partnership to expand access to modern irrigation, digitize water flows, and establish training centers. “We must act very quickly and...

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Almosi Valley in Tajikistan Recognized as Global Agricultural Heritage Site

The Almosi mountain valley in Tajikistan’s Gissar district has been designated as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS) by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The decision was announced on July 8 during a meeting of the FAO’s Scientific Advisory Group. A Milestone for Central Asia Tajikistan is now the first country in the post-Soviet space to have one of its agricultural landscapes recognized by the GIAHS program. Until now, only 12 agroecosystems across five European nations, Austria, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Andorra, had received such recognition. Tajikistan’s inclusion marks a significant acknowledgment of Central Asia’s rich agricultural legacy and its global relevance. GIAHS sites are selected not only for their scenic beauty but also for their enduring agricultural practices and deep-rooted human-nature interaction. According to FAO materials, these systems demonstrate high levels of agrobiodiversity, sustainable production, centuries-old agricultural knowledge, and strong community ties to the environment. Almosi exemplifies these values. In its mountainous terrain, farmers engage in transhumant sheep herding and the cultivation of crops such as wheat, barley, vegetables, and the prized pink Taifi grape, used for raisins, syrups, juice, and wine. The valley is also home to the Gissar sheep breed, developed for resilience in high-altitude conditions. Preserving Tradition and Biodiversity Agriculture in Almosi relies on traditional techniques, including contour planting, organic fertilization, and irrigation through ancient canal systems. Farmers monitor natural indicators to optimize water use and adapt to climatic shifts, ensuring both productivity and environmental preservation. Community organization is another hallmark of the Almosi model. Farming is managed through mahalla committees, cooperatives, family farms, and even remnants of collective farming structures. This supports intergenerational knowledge transfer, shared resource management, and social cohesion. GIAHS designation not only affirms Almosi’s global agricultural significance but also opens avenues for sustainable development. Opportunities include eco-tourism, enhanced agricultural investment, and broader recognition of Tajikistan’s rural heritage. With new entries from Tajikistan, South Korea, and Portugal, the GIAHS network now includes 99 recognized systems in 29 countries. Almosi stands as the first in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a testament to the region’s enduring agricultural traditions and its capacity for innovation grounded in history.

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How Climate Change Is Damaging Agriculture and Food Security in Tajikistan

Over the past 30 years, cotton production in Tajikistan has dropped by a staggering 56%. Among the many contributing factors are a lack of investment, outdated agricultural technology, and, notably, climate change. While humanity is not yet capable of stopping climate change, there are ways to adapt, prevent or mitigate the consequences of natural disasters, glacier melt, droughts, and to preserve biodiversity. Agricultural GDP is growing — but slowly The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet it remains the cornerstone of food security in Tajikistan. Moreover, a significant portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. According to official statistics, Tajikistan’s population exceeds 10 million, with more than 7 million living in rural areas. Of the total population, 60% are engaged in agricultural activities, while the official unemployment rate stands at 7.9%. Data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan shows that agriculture contributes approximately 25% of the country’s GDP and accounts for a similar share of exports. The sector also generates 35% of national tax revenues. Beyond food production, agriculture supplies raw materials to various industries, meaning that the livelihoods of countless small and medium-sized enterprises depend directly on its productivity. Despite modest growth in gross agricultural output, the pace remains slow. At the same time, food prices continue to rise on domestic markets, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford a balanced diet. Local farmers and entrepreneurs often attribute price hikes to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, especially given the sector’s reliance on imported fertilizers, machinery, and packaging Food Security at Risk When measured in U.S. dollars, agricultural income has remained relatively stagnant—indicating a lack of real progress and underscoring the need for urgent reforms. Compounding the issue is Tajikistan’s annual population growth rate of 2.7%, which places additional strain on the food system. Without strategic investments in irrigation, land expansion, and climate-resilient technologies, the country risks facing a systemic food shortage in the coming decades. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 60% of Tajikistan’s population suffers from food insecurity—meaning they lack sufficient access to the calories and nutrients needed for a healthy and active life. An Idea in Need of Investment Matlub Rakhmonov, an agricultural specialist, analyzed the impact of climate change on Tajikistan's agrarian sector, particularly in horticulture. “For more than ten years now, in several regions of Tajikistan, some small and medium-sized business owners involved in horticulture have not only failed to secure a full harvest, but have also incurred losses,” says Rakhmonov. “The reason for this is increasingly due to unusually warm days at the end of winter, which cause fruit-bearing trees to bloom prematurely. Then, in late April and early May, sharp cold snaps hit, the blossoms fall, and the resulting crops are destroyed.” Moreover, climate change has led to frequent natural anomalies, causing some traditional tree species to stop responding to seasonal changes. In the past, Tajikistan made widespread efforts to implement intensive orchard...

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Tajikistan’s Energy Paradox

Tajikistan stands out among developing countries for having achieved near-universal access to electricity by 2022. This milestone, documented in the international SDG7-2025 report by the UN, World Bank, WHO, IEA, and IRENA, places the country alongside Eastern European and South Caucasus states in electrification. However, beneath this achievement lie persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in rural and mountainous regions, where winter brings regular power outages due to seasonal dips in hydropower generation and surging demand. Firewood and Coal Still Dominant Despite near-total electrification, Tajikistan remains significantly behind in access to clean cooking fuels. Fewer than 40% of the population use modern, safe technologies. In villages, the majority of households still rely on coal, firewood, or even manure for heating and cooking, practices that pose serious environmental and health risks, especially for women and children. Tajikistan’s power sector is heavily dependent on hydropower, which accounts for over 90% of electricity production. While this results in low CO₂ emissions, it also creates structural vulnerabilities. Climate change and glacial retreat threaten the reliability of this single energy source. Meanwhile, the potential of solar and wind energy remains largely untapped due to a lack of investment, insufficient institutional frameworks, and limited support for decentralized energy projects. Lagging in Energy Efficiency Tajikistan is one of the most energy-intensive countries in the region. Aging heating systems, poorly insulated buildings, and inefficient technologies in agriculture and industry all contribute to this inefficiency. The SDG7 report emphasizes the need to upgrade buildings and adopt energy-saving technologies. Some progress has been made: with assistance from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), thermal upgrades are underway in schools and hospitals. In 2021, Tajikistan received approximately $100 million in international support for energy projects, most of it allocated to hydropower. Major donors include the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and various UN agencies. However, investment in solar and wind energy, as well as broader energy efficiency initiatives, remains negligible. Experts are urging international partners to revise their priorities and fund projects that directly improve living standards, particularly in remote and rural areas. A Regional Disparity in Investment The pace of energy transition varies across Central Asia. While electrification is largely complete, access to clean cooking fuels remains uneven. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are notably behind in this area. In contrast, Uzbekistan has emerged as a regional leader, securing the bulk of international energy investment. Uzbekistan, on the contrary, entered the top five world leaders in attracting investments in green energy. Globally, progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) is slowing. As of 2022, 91% of the world’s population had access to electricity, but over two billion people still rely on harmful fuels for cooking. Energy efficiency improvements are lagging, advancing at just one-quarter of the pace needed to meet 2030 targets. Charting a Path Forward Experts recommend three immediate priorities for Tajikistan. First, scaling up decentralized solar and wind energy projects. Second, investing in the energy efficiency of buildings and infrastructure. Third, expanding access to clean cooking fuels through...

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Tajikistan and Central Asia Face Escalating Water Crisis

Central Asia is emerging as one of the regions most vulnerable to drought, according to the latest Global Drought Outlook published by the United Nations. A Region Under Climate Pressure The report highlights a persistent rise in average annual temperatures, diminishing snow cover, and accelerated glacier retreat, particularly in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as key drivers of water insecurity. “Climate change is accelerating glacier retreat... This poses a long-term threat to the region's water security,” the report states. Tajikistan, which holds over 60% of Central Asia’s glaciers, plays a critical role in the region’s hydrology. Agriculture on the Brink The first sector to suffer from prolonged drought is agriculture, which underpins food security across Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Most agriculture in these countries relies on outdated irrigation systems ill-equipped to handle evolving climate conditions. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global incidence of droughts rose by 29% between 2000 and 2023. In Central Asia, this trend has resulted in declining crop yields, income losses, and forced livestock sales. In Tajikistan’s Khatlon and Sogd regions, farmers experience income drops of 15-30% during dry years. Despite generating more than 60% of the region's freshwater through glaciers and high-altitude rivers, Tajikistan struggles with its own water shortages. Nearly 60% of water is lost due to leakage in dilapidated canals, compounded by inefficient water management. Rural communities are particularly affected, with thousands of families lacking regular access to clean water. Hydropower and Economic Risks Tajikistan relies on hydropower for over 90% of its electricity. However, inconsistent snowfall and prolonged summer droughts have drastically lowered reservoir levels, threatening national energy stability. More than half of the country’s 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals require modernization. From 2000 to 2016, drought-related economic losses in Central Asia exceeded $2 billion. In 2023 alone, Tajikistan incurred $5.4 million in damages due to power shortages. Droughts are also impacting public health, employment, and migration. Natural disasters annually affect around 1.4 million people in Uzbekistan and 500,000 in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. By 2050, drought-related losses are expected to reach 1.3% of regional GDP annually, with up to five million climate migrants projected. Regional and Global Responses Tajikistan, a signatory to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, is pursuing land restoration and sustainable water management projects. Under the ISCAUZR-2 initiative (Central Asian Initiative on Sustainable Land Management), the country secured nearly $1.5 million to support sustainable agricultural practices. Efforts include the development of fruit tree nurseries, installation of drip irrigation systems, construction of freshwater reservoirs, and deployment of monitoring sensors at water sources. Agroforestry techniques and drought-resistant crop varieties are also being introduced. Despite these initiatives, the region continues to face rising temperatures, Asia has already surpassed a +1.04°C increase and Tajikistan has lost more than 1,000 glaciers. An estimated 10 million people across Central Asia lack sustainable access to safe drinking water. Natural phenomena increasingly compound one another: droughts cause dust storms, which in turn accelerate glacier melt. The UN report warns that without systemic...

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World Bank: Over 65,000 Premature Deaths a Year in Central Asia Linked To Air Pollution

Air pollution remains one of the most pressing environmental and public health challenges in Central Asia, with significant consequences for human life and regional economies. A new World Bank assessment highlights the scale of the crisis, linking poor air quality to more than 65,000 premature deaths in 2021 across the region. The report identifies pollution from fossil fuel combustion, especially for heating and transportation, as a major contributor to declining air quality in both urban and rural areas. Transboundary sand and dust storms are compounding the problem, affecting multiple countries simultaneously. In many Central Asian cities, concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceed safe limits by a wide margin. During the winter, levels can spike to six to twelve times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended thresholds. The economic burden is also staggering: the annual health costs associated with air pollution are estimated at $15-21 billion, representing 3-5% of the region’s GDP in 2022. Human-Caused Emissions Dominate According to experts, 50-80% of PM2.5 exposure is due to human activity, primarily the burning of solid fuels for heating in households and small businesses. While natural dust is a contributing factor in some areas, anthropogenic sources remain the dominant driver. The World Bank argues that this crisis can be mitigated with the right policy interventions. Effective strategies include reducing emissions from household heating, traffic, and industrial operations, as well as expanding urban green spaces. To better coordinate efforts, the Bank advocates for an “airshed approach”, a governance model that promotes joint responsibility between national and local authorities to improve air quality. Additional recommendations include strengthening air quality laws and monitoring systems, updating standards, raising public awareness, and enhancing cross-border cooperation among Central Asian states. Impact on Children A separate report by UNICEF underscores the disproportionate toll air pollution takes on children. In 2021, approximately 6,441 children and teenagers across Europe and Central Asia died from air pollution-related causes, 85% of them under the age of one. UNICEF stressed that these deaths were entirely preventable. Experts maintain that improving air quality could yield wide-ranging benefits, including increased productivity, reduced healthcare costs, and enhanced quality of life. They urge governments to integrate air quality management into climate and development plans to unlock additional financial and technical assistance.