Tajikistan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Security

Central Asia Agrees New Water Limits, but National Quotas Remain Unclear

Water has repeatedly caused friction between Central Asian governments. Uncoordinated releases have flooded communities downstream, while disputes over access have contributed to deadly fighting along contested borders. On October 7, the region's countries agreed on water withdrawals from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya for fall and winter 2026–2027, though published results do not reveal how much water each country will receive. The agreements were reached at the 95th meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) in Avaza, on Turkmenistan's Caspian coast near Turkmenbashi. Participants agreed on national water withdrawal limits and projected reservoir operating schedules, but the figures remain in unpublished annexes to the meeting protocol. Regional cooperation has grown in recent years. In June, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan agreed on water releases and electricity supplies for the 2026 irrigation season, continuing efforts to coordinate reservoir operations across borders. Despite this progress, longstanding tensions remain. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need water in the winter to generate electricity, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan need it in the summer for irrigation. Bishkek has revived proposals for its neighbors to share the costs of maintaining reservoirs, while Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Canal could put further pressure on the Amu Darya. Countries are also trying to resolve discrepancies in river-flow measurements. [caption id="attachment_58085" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Officials from Central Asian countries attend talks on cross-border cooperation and sustainable development in the Amu Darya basin in Turkmenistan. Image: State News Agency of Turkmenistan[/caption] From Flooded Villages to Border Clashes The competing demands of electricity generation and agriculture are particularly evident in the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan's Toktogul Reservoir sits on the Naryn River, the Syr Darya's main tributary. In winter, Kyrgyzstan releases water to generate electricity, months before downstream farmers need it for irrigation. When these releases exceed the capacity of reservoirs and canals, the excess water can cause flooding. In February 2004, residents of Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region experienced the consequences of uncoordinated water releases. The Syr Darya overflowed its banks, forcing the evacuation of at least 200 families. Ice had already restricted the river's flow, worsening the flooding. According to NASA, Kyrgyzstan was releasing more water from its hydropower system than the agreements allowed, with the excess flow entering the Shardara Reservoir. Uzbekistan agreed to divert some of the water into the Arnasay lake system, but it was not possible to divert the entire volume needed. As a result, the river flooded areas farther downstream. In the Amu Darya basin, disagreements developed differently. In 2012, then-Uzbek President Islam Karimov warned that disputes over water resources could lead to war. The source of tension was the construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant in Tajikistan. Tashkent feared that a large dam on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya, would allow Dushanbe to influence the volume of water reaching Uzbekistan's agricultural regions. The confrontation was accompanied by interruptions in gas supplies to Tajikistan, transport restrictions, and mutual accusations. Dushanbe linked Tashkent's actions to pressure over the Rogun project, although the Uzbek side disputed that...

Rogun Dam

Tajikistan Ratifies $300 Million World Bank Grant for Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s lower house of parliament has ratified a $300 million World Bank grant for the Rogun Hydropower Plant, providing fresh financing for the country’s largest infrastructure project. The agreement was approved on October 1. The funding comes from the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s concessional financing arm for low-income countries. It will support continued construction and equipment installation, alongside safety and environmental safeguards and support for communities affected by resettlement. The World Bank approved the grant in June. Together with an earlier package, its approved financing for Rogun now totals $650 million. Tajikistan is also raising money from other international partners. Italy committed $150 million through its Climate Fund in July. The Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and Gulf development funds have also approved or expressed interest in supporting the project. The World Bank expects up to $3 billion in concessional financing to be mobilized for the project. By August, the dam had reached a height of about 190 meters. About 145 meters remain before it reaches its planned height of 335 meters, according to Italian construction group Webuild, one of the main contractors on the project. Two generating units are already producing electricity while construction continues, with their output expected to increase as the reservoir level rises. The World Bank currently puts planned capacity at 3,780 MW and expects the plant to be fully operational in 2033. It estimates annual generation at about 14.4 billion kWh. Rogun is intended to reduce Tajikistan’s chronic winter electricity shortages and increase power exports. The World Bank expects electricity from Rogun to be exported to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Hydropower could also help balance fluctuations in growing solar and wind generation across the region. Rogun is being built on the Vakhsh River, which joins the Panj to form the Amu Darya. Reservoir filling therefore also concerns downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where Amu Darya water is extensively used for agriculture. The environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries has criticized the project’s impact assessments, arguing that they rely on outdated data and do not adequately account for climate change or the project’s wider effects across the basin. The World Bank says Tajikistan must comply with regional water-sharing arrangements. Reservoir filling is expected to proceed gradually through 2039, with compliance monitored throughout the project. In September, the World Bank also published new resettlement and livelihood restoration documents for communities affected by construction and the expanding reservoir. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on the expansion of international financing for Rogun after Italy committed $150 million to the project.

Nuclear Waste

Central Asia Makes Progress on Uranium Cleanup, but Major Risks Remain

Radioactive waste lies beside the river in Mailuu-Suu, a former uranium town in Kyrgyzstan’s picturesque mountain landscape. Engineers preparing to secure it found a problem inside one of its dams. Additional drilling revealed tailings within the dam structure itself. Two subsequent studies concluded that waste from two connected ponds would have to be moved to a safer location. The discovery changed the cleanup design and increased its cost, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s revised master plan. Material that planners had intended to secure in place could no longer safely remain there. Once known as Mailbox 200, the town was founded in 1946 for a secret Soviet uranium program. Its workforce included Germans treated as politically suspect and former Red Army soldiers punished for surrendering during World War II. Uranium mining and processing at Mailuu-Suu ended in the late 1960s, leaving waste buried along the river. Cleanup is expected to continue until 2032. Even then, the authorities will need to maintain the restored sites and check that contamination remains contained. Mailuu-Suu illustrates why Central Asia’s uranium cleanup has stretched across decades. The waste sits in places where rivers and unstable slopes can carry it beyond the original industrial sites. Making those places safer requires extensive engineering, followed by public oversight that must outlast the contractors. [caption id="attachment_56370" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Archival photograph of Mailuu-Suu’s old mill and uranium tailings; image: Peter Waggit/IAEA[/caption] The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest assessment, published in January 2026, records substantial progress. Four out of seven priority sites have been remediated since the original regional plan was adopted in 2017. But Mailuu-Suu remains one of the largest and most complex projects, with work expected to extend beyond the updated regional plan’s 2030 horizon. Across the region, former uranium operations left radioactive residue after mining and processing ended. The IAEA describes facilities abandoned without adequate plans for safe closure. National governments inherited responsibility for sites where no private owner remained to pay for the work. The geography compounds the situation. The IAEA’s original planning framework identifies tailings ponds near major rivers in seismically active areas. Flooding or a landslide can undermine containment and lead to contaminated materials traveling downstream. The location of a deposit therefore helps determine the urgency and design of its cleanup. At Mailuu-Suu, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced a €23 million grant in 2023. The original design included soil covers two meters thick to reduce water entering the waste and prevent access to it. The project concerned more than two million cubic meters of tailings along the river and its tributaries. Following the devastating 2023 earthquake in Turkey and Syria, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Construction required further checks on the dams’ stability. Drilling revealed tailings inside the dam at pond seven. Subsequent studies found that the waste in ponds five and seven could not safely remain in place. The IAEA plan warns that a strong earthquake could cause the dam to collapse, allowing water-saturated waste to liquefy and enter the river....

Natural Disasters

Tajikistan Turns to Early Warning Systems as Climate Risks Grow

On the evening of May 1, a mudflow swept into residential neighborhoods in Kulob, southern Tajikistan. When water flooded a neighboring house, Mirzo Muloniezov rushed inside and managed to carry out his two-year-old grandson. The water had already reached the electrical outlets. Muloniezov was electrocuted. Neighbors pulled him from the water, but he could not be saved. In the first six months of 2026, Tajik authorities recorded 741 natural emergencies. Avalanches accounted for 508 of them, while another 123 were mudflows. Twelve people were killed, and economic damage exceeded TJS 52.8 million – about $5.7 million. Dushanbe is now discussing with the United Kingdom technologies that could give people more time before disaster strikes. On September 14, Rajabali Rahmonali, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, met British Ambassador Katherine Smitton. Along with training rescuers and holding joint exercises, the talks covered geographic information systems (GIS), risk mapping, drones, remote monitoring, and early warning systems. These are no longer technologies for some distant future. Drones and GIS are already being used to monitor glaciers and areas exposed to mudflows. In late August, scientists from the Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia surveyed the Megdor and Khirson glaciers in the Vanjob River basin. They combined aerial surveys using drones with satellite imagery, GIS data, and hydrometeorological observations. The data allow specialists to track glacier movement and areas where new hazards could emerge. During the expedition, they also surveyed the area around the village of Votkhud after a July 19 mudflow damaged water supply and irrigation infrastructure. Particular attention is being paid to the Khirson Glacier. Its sudden surges have previously blocked river channels and created glacial lakes. Such lakes can become dangerous if a natural ice or debris dam fails, sending large volumes of water crashing into the valley below. Some early warning infrastructure is already operating in the country. In June, Tajikistan’s Agency for Hydrometeorology reported the deployment of systems used for flood forecasting and early warning. Tajikistan is also rehabilitating hydrological stations and expanding its observation network. British assistance is therefore being discussed for a system that already has some of its components in place. What remains unclear is whether the cooperation will provide additional monitoring stations, drones, software, specialist training, or a combination of these – and where any new equipment or systems would operate. Kulob shows what the existing system still lacks. Heavy rains in early May triggered floods and landslides in several parts of the country. Three people died – two were trapped beneath collapsed walls, and Muloniezov was electrocuted. His son Muloniezov Yakubchon told Asia-Plus that the mudflow arrived at around 8 p.m. Water first entered a neighboring house where children were inside, and then destroyed his family’s fence. After his father’s death, the family temporarily moved in with relatives. By May 20, 520 affected families in Kulob had received government assistance, while another 330 were still waiting. Umeda Alimova, a resident of the Qurbon Zardak neighborhood, received flour,...

Central Asia Water Cooperation

Water in Central Asia: Can the Five States Reach an Agreement?

Central Asia is entering a period of growing water stress, as climate change makes supplies less predictable while demand continues to rise. Populations are growing, economies require new energy and industrial capacity, glaciers are shrinking, and agriculture continues to consume most of the available water. The region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – cross national borders, making it impossible for any one country to solve the problem on its own. After decades of disputes, Central Asian states are increasingly trying to manage water jointly. In 2026, that cooperation has produced further practical steps, from plans for automated water accounting in the Syr Darya basin to new proposals for reforming regional mechanisms. The question now is whether the five countries can agree on rules when their water needs remain different. Water and Energy: An Old Conflict The structural conflict is rooted in the region’s geography. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states and use water in part for hydropower generation, particularly in winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are downstream and need large volumes in summer during the irrigation season. During the Soviet period, a centralized exchange system was in place: upstream republics stored water in winter and released it in summer, receiving energy resources in return. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that unified mechanism disappeared. Interstate agreements preserved a degree of coordination but did not eliminate the tension between upstream energy needs and downstream agricultural interests. Climate change is now adding another layer to the problem. Retreating glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are altering the timing and reliability of river flows, while populations and consumption are increasing. Countries across the region are planning new power plants, industrial facilities, mining projects, and data centers, while agriculture remains the largest consumer of water. From Seasonal Quotas to Joint Management The main formal mechanism for coordinating river allocations remains the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992. Through it, countries coordinate water withdrawal limits and reservoir operating regimes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. In late 2025, the countries agreed on water allocations for 2026: for the Amu Darya, the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 was around 55.4 billion cubic meters, while the Syr Darya allocation for the non-growing season was approximately 4.2 billion cubic meters. The five-state framework does not, however, cover every major user of the Amu Darya. Afghanistan is outside the regional allocation system, while its Qosh Tepa Canal, now under construction, has added another source of uncertainty over future downstream flows. Such agreements keep the shared system functioning, but many decisions are still made ahead of each new season. Climate change and rising demand require a longer-term model. In February of this year, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Use, while joint infrastructure projects, including Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower plant with the participation of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are gradually adding shared economic interests...

Glaciers

Tajikistan Glacier Mudflows Warning Issued as Climate Risks Grow

Tajikistan’s government is warning people in several mountainous regions about the threat of “localized and glacial mudflows” in the next few days, highlighting the hazards faced by some communities in a country where glaciers are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. The warning comes days after a landslide and the collapse of part of a glacier set off catastrophic flooding in Nepal that, according to the official figures on Tuesday, killed more than 1,000 people and left about 4,000 people missing. While the likelihood of a similar event occurring in Tajikistan is difficult to gauge, authorities there are aware of the instability of ice formations in some high-altitude areas and are working with international help to improve monitoring systems. The government’s current warning extends from September 2 to September 4, covering parts of the Districts of Republican Subordination, extending east and north of Dushanbe; the Sughd region, which is further north of the capital; and western parts of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, which covers nearly all of eastern Tajikistan. “Citizens are advised to take precautions against the effects of changing weather conditions,” warned the hydrometeorology agency of the state Committee for Environmental Protection. The hydrometeorology agency, which monitors weather and water, hosted a workshop on August 21 for state scientists and other specialists to learn about an automated tool that can potentially identify emerging lakes in some glacier basins in Central Asia, helping to assess the threat of possible flooding. The tool, which is called Transient Hydrologic Anomalies Weekly, or THAW, uses satellite data and the Google Earth Engine platform to monitor bodies of water. “The tool can draw attention to a potential outburst-hazard and can support the timely identification of lakes requiring further monitoring,” the Tajik agency said in a report on the workshop. The event was jointly organized with the UNESCO regional office in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and the University of Zurich in Switzerland as part of a regional initiative called Glacier Lake Outburst Floods in Central Asia, or GLOFCA. The threat of flooding from a glacial lake is a different hazard from the sudden collapse of rock and glacial ice that occurred in Nepal. But GLOFCA warns that Central Asia’s glaciers are shrinking at a rate of 0.2–1% per year by volume, increasing the possibility of unstable glacial lakes and related flooding. While many mountainous areas are sparsely populated, experts are concerned about the impact of flooding on vulnerable communities living downstream. GLOFCA says more than 1,000 “high-risk” lakes have been identified in Central Asia, and encourages regional collaboration on monitoring systems. The initiative supports the implementation of early warning systems not only in Tajikistan, but also Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has more than 60 per cent of Central Asia’s glaciers, covering about 6 percent of the country and providing fresh water to the region, according to the United Nations Development Programme. However, many glaciers in Tajikistan have disappeared in recent decades and rising temperatures threaten many more, posing the threat to mountain communities of “floods, landslides,...