According to the World Bank, economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to slow to 3.3% this year, down from 3.5% in 2023. This is much lower than the average growth of 4.1% seen between 2000 and 2019, and is not enough for many of the region’s middle-income countries to become high-income.
Growth in the region has mainly been driven by an increase in people’s spending, rising wages, and government policies, while demand from outside the area, especially from the EU, remains weak.
Although the average yearly inflation rate had dropped to 3.6% by August 2024, from 4.6% at the end of last year, it is still higher than the 2.7% average seen in 2018-2019. Prices of goods have grown more slowly in most countries, but prices for services remain high because of rising labor costs. Some central banks have lowered interest rates as inflation has slowed, but are cautious. Government spending has not been reduced in most of the region’s countries and indeed, has dramatically increased, especially on public wages, pensions, social benefits, and defense.
The economies of Central Asia are expected to grow by 4.3% in 2024; slower than the 5.6% growth seen last year. In Kazakhstan, growth is predicted to slow to 3.4%, down from 5.1% in 2023, mainly because the expansion of the Tengiz oil field is taking longer, and the government is spending less. For other Central Asian countries, growth estimates have been raised by an average of nearly one percentage due to increased consumer spending, more government spending, and ongoing support from money sent home by workers in Russia and trade with Russia. However, despite these improvements, the growth per capita GDP (the average income per person) in Central Asia is only expected to be 2.7% this year, making it the slowest in the region, apart fromTurkey.
The Central Asian sub region, with growth expected at 5%, will outpace all other sub regions in 2025. This is driven primarily by renewed strong growth in Kazakhstan amid rising oil production. However, growth in the rest of Central Asia is projected to slow as trading and remittance flows from Russia normalize.
The lowest median consumer price growth rate was recorded in the South Caucasus, at 1.5% year-on-year in August 2024. In contrast, Central Asia had the highest median consumer price inflation rate, at 6.1%. This rate reflects 10% inflation in Uzbekistan, driven by removing energy subsidies in May 2024.
