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Turkish referendum: sending the wrong signal to Central Asia

LONDON (TCA) — It all looks like a shameful charade. But on a slightly longer term, Turkey’s referendum can be considered a step backward rather than forward and is certain to create more problems than it could possibly solve. It goes in the opposite direction of a trend emerging throughout Central Asia away from personality rule and towards a more collective form of government. While expected to have little immediate geopolitical spillover, the message sent by Turkey’s narrow majority in the direction of Central Asia is most of all psychological – and it is the wrong message. Continue reading

9 years ago

Uzbek, Kyrgyz and Tajik radicals behind terrorism ‘made in Central Asia’

LONDON (TCA) — In the attack on an Istanbul nightclub last winter and recent ones in Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Astrakhan most of the perpetrators appeared to be not Chechens, Ingush and Dagestanians “as usual” but people from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as ethnic Uygurs from western China. This, in the eyes of the public, has turned Central Asia into a terrorist brand. It appears that the region is ill-prepared to cope with it. Continue reading

9 years ago

Will Kurds in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan seek joining Greater Kurdistan?

LONDON (TCA) — Should Central Asia care whether or not Kurds in the world will have their own home in the form of the Greater Kurdistan Republic, covering the northern regions of Iraq and Syria? The answer would be no without taking precedent mechanisms into consideration. There has been talk more than once about Kyrgyzstan being split up into North and South or Tajikistan’s east proclaiming independence, and separatist tendencies in northern Kazakhstan. Any other attempt to change the geopolitical map anywhere in the world means bad tidings for other areas suffering from either real or imaginary geopolitical threats. Continue reading

9 years ago

Finance Kazakhstan Central Asia Corruption Expo-2017

Central Asia corruption: high-brow racketeers society in Kazakhstan (part 2)

LONDON (TCA) — In Kazakhstan, two former prime ministers are serving jail terms now, and shadows are packing on top of dozens of other members of the upper circle and hundreds within slightly lower echelons. Continue reading

9 years ago

Central Asia corruption: how Kyrgyzstan can make a fresh start (part 1)

BISHKEK (TCA) — How can Central Asia’s nations reverse the force of greed thriving their upper echelons in favour of a fairer division of wealth en replace personal enrichment by collective economic improvement? If western parties would replace provocations by assistance to get justice done, it would help a lot, and give a new political generation no longer driven by selfish aspirations a chance to impose a velvet transition in the right direction. Kyrgyzstan appears to be the best-placed for such a process. Continue reading

9 years ago

Kazakhstan’s banks merger: a remedy or a pain killer?

ALMATY (TCA) — Recently a minor-scale bank in Kazakhstan named KazInvest ran aground. Now, another one, Delta Bank, is moving towards the brink of bankruptcy. Yet another “junior”, Temirbank, formerly owned by BTA and now controlled by Fortebank, recently defaulted on its coupon repayment schedule as well. In 2016, Temirbank posted a net income of 10.875 billion tenge which turned into a net loss of 4.41134 billion for the full year during the last quarter. During the last three months, equity capital dwindled from 54.5 billion to 39.2 billion tenge. Current asset par value stands close to 357 billion tenge, but it remains unclear what the percentage of exposed assets within that amount is. Continue reading

9 years ago

Terrorism: the Afghan war redrawing Central Asia ‘Silk Route of Terror’ (part 2)

LONDON (TCA) — Some attempts have been made to draft a rough sketch of the “Silk Route of Terror” but mapping it proves a bit hard. Besides, that map could fundamentally change if somehow the Afghan government manages to forge a compromise with the Taliban rebels. Presently there are two itineraries for Central Asian would-be terrorists. Either they move from their home country in Central Asia to Turkey, from there to Syria or Iraq, then to Afghanistan and back home enriched by experience and evil plans, or from Central Asia they pass into Afghanistan, from there to the Near-East battleground and back, through Turkey or directly. In both cases, the significance of Afghanistan as a transit hub and training ground is on the rise. Continue reading

9 years ago

Terrorism: the ‘forgotten dimensions’ of jihadism in Central Asia, China (part 1)

LONDON (TCA) — Are the governments of Central Asia’s post-Soviet republics taking effective action to root out the phantom of terrorism lurking in all corners of the region? The awkward question was carefully avoided during the latest peace talks on Syria in Astana. Fact remains, however, that thousands of nationals of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and (most of all) Uzbekistan are “fighting” in Syria and northern Iraq. In the meantime a rather large number of them are also spreading over the world to replace terrorists originating from the Near-East to spread new waves of havoc, while others “bring terror home” by returning to their countries of origin ready to carry out attacks on their own communities. However, so far nobody has properly mapped the overall situation. Continue reading

9 years ago

Kazakhstan: outcome of Syria talks in Astana

BISHKEK (TCA) — Is Astana going to become a regular meeting point for squabbling parties in troubled corners of the world, shooting it out at home but inclined to compromise to spare lives and economies? The results of the talks on the situation in Syria, which ended with mostly a confirmation of the status quo excluding any outlook of a longer-term political situation in Syria, are an ambiguous indication of such a prospect. UN Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura was quoted as stating: "Kazakhstan, under the leadership of President (Nursultan) Nazarbayev, has provided a remarkable contribution to our efforts to push for peace in Syria." Continue reading

9 years ago

Syria talks in Kazakhstan: a possible breakthrough

LONDON (TCA) — What is at stake at the upcoming negotiations in Astana between the parties involved in the terrible civil war in Syria? The fact that the Syrian government and most (though not all) of the so-called moderate opposition have promised to be present means little. Those “moderate” groups are in fact armed militias grouped around political chiefs after the notorious model of Lebanon during its 16-year civil war. Iran, Turkey, Russia and most European states appear to be willing to live with that. Two wildcards remain: the USA and Saudi Arabia. Continue reading

9 years ago

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