Our People > Stephen M. Bland

Stephen M. Bland

Managing Editor and Head of Investigations

Stephen M. Bland is a journalist, author, editor, commentator, and researcher specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Prior to joining The Times of Central Asia, he worked for NGOs, think tanks, as the Central Asia expert on a forthcoming documentary series, for the BBC, The Diplomat, EurasiaNet, and numerous other publications.

His award-winning book on Central Asia was published in 2016, and he is currently putting the finishing touches to a book about the Caucasus.

Articles

Armenia

Pashinyan Victory Points to New Transport Options for Central Asia

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on June 8 after Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won Armenia’s parliamentary election. The message came through Akorda. Tokayev said the vote, in the preliminary view of most international observers, was open, followed Armenian election law, and allowed citizens to express their will. Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission has released preliminary results from all 2,005 polling stations, giving Civil Contract 727,160 votes, or 49.81%. Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia bloc took 23.29%, while former President Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance took 9.94%. Turnout stood at 59%. Pashinyan is on course to form another government, but doesn’t have the two-thirds strength needed to change the constitution without a referendum. That limits his room for maneuver on a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan, since Baku still wants Yerevan to alter constitutional language it sees as a claim to Nagorno-Karabakh. [caption id="attachment_50178" align="aligncenter" width="1535"] A stall in Tsaghkadzor, Armenia, selling Nikol Pashinyan paraphernalia. Image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kazakhstan has built a close political track with Armenia over the past two years. In November 2025, Tokayev and Pashinyan elevated ties to a strategic partnership during Pashinyan’s official visit to Kazakhstan. The two sides discussed trade, transport, agriculture, digitalization, education, and culture. Armenian government readouts from the visit also linked Kazakh wheat shipments to regional route openings through the South Caucasus. This is the practical Central Asian stake in Pashinyan’s victory: a durable Armenia-Azerbaijan peace settlement would add another layer to westward routes from the Caspian. In October 2025, Azerbaijan removed all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev told Tokayev in Astana that a shipment of Kazakh grain through Azerbaijan to Armenia was the first such consignment since transit stopped in the late Soviet period. Kazakhstan already uses the Caspian and South Caucasus to reach Turkey and Europe, but that network depends on a limited number of crossings, ports, and rail links. If Armenia and Azerbaijan reopen transport ties, Astana gains another way to reduce chokepoints and strengthen its position. Pashinyan’s victory also sends a political signal. The vote tested whether Russian pressure could set the limits of Armenia’s domestic politics. International observers said the June 7 election offered voters a genuine choice in a well-run process. They also cited pressure from abroad through trade restrictions and security threats aimed at pushing voters toward the opposition. The same assessment warned of uneven campaign opportunities and perceptions of selective justice inside Armenia. However, Pashinyan still won in a “landslide” despite years of public anger over the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, a split with old security partners, and strong pressure from opposition groups with better ties to Moscow. The two main pro-Russian opposition forces won a combined 31%. The election came against a backdrop of Armenia’s break with Russian security organizations. When Azerbaijan took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 as Russian peacekeepers stayed on the sidelines in the breakaway territory’s dormant airport, Armenia concluded that Moscow would not protect it. In February 2024, Pashinyan said...

22 hours ago

EU Sanctions

EU Sanctions Seminar in Bishkek Puts Kyrgyzstan’s Russia Trade Under Scrutiny

The European Union held a full-day sanctions seminar in Bishkek on June 9, aimed at Kyrgyz companies, banks, logistics operators and virtual-asset businesses. The session comes less than seven weeks after Brussels used its anti-circumvention tool against Kyrgyzstan for the first time. The EU Delegation to the Kyrgyz Republic said the seminar was designed to raise awareness of EU sanctions, explain their application, and improve cooperation to prevent circumvention. The published agenda set out a program covering the EU sanctions system, financial restrictions, dual-use trade controls, penalties, trade-flow risks, and practical compliance. It also included question-and-answer sessions on financial sanctions and dual-use goods. The Kyrgyz Chamber of Commerce and Industry said the event would cover sanctions policy. Trainers were expected to come from the European Commission, EU member states, international law firms, banks, logistics companies, technology firms, and the virtual-asset sector. The timing gives an otherwise technical seminar a political edge. On April 23, the Council of the EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia. Brussels banned the export of computer numerical control machines and radios to Kyrgyzstan, where there is a high risk that the products could be re-exported to Russia. The Council said trade data showed a significant rise in the re-export of common high-priority items. Those narrow categories carry large compliance risk. They include machine tools, electronics, radio equipment and other components that can support military production, drones, communications systems, and advanced industrial supply chains. The EU is not attempting to stop Kyrgyz trade with Russia; it is trying to close routes for goods that European regulators say should not reach Russia through third countries. Kyrgyzstan has drawn closer EU scrutiny since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A member of the Eurasian Economic Union, goods can enter Kyrgyzstan, clear customs, and then move through regional trade channels. That role has supported growth in Kyrgyzstan, but has placed freight forwarders, importers and banks under closer foreign review. The concern had been building before the April decision. During a February visit to Bishkek, EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan discussed Kyrgyz banks, cryptocurrency and sensitive imports with Kyrgyz officials. Local coverage said the EU was watching about 80 dual-use product categories shipped from Europe to Kyrgyzstan. Around 50 had been found directly in Russian weapons, while 30 more were described as economically critical industrial items used in their production. The April package also increased pressure on Kyrgyz financial channels. The EU placed a transaction ban on 20 Russian banks and targeted four financial institutions in third countries. Keremet Bank and Capital Bank were among the affected Kyrgyz lenders. The EU also designated a Kyrgyz entity operating a platform where large volumes of the government-backed A7A5 stablecoin are traded. Virtual assets remain one of the most sensitive areas. On June 3, Kyrgyzstan’s financial-market regulator revoked the license of CJSC TengriCoin as a virtual-asset trading operator. The regulator cited systematic legal violations, failure to comply with official requirements, and failure to submit required reports. It also reminded market participants...

1 day ago

C5+1

From Culture to Critical Minerals: C5+1 Opens Busy U.S. Week in Central Asia

The United States and Central Asia moved another part of the C5+1 agenda into a working-level form on June 5, when culture officials from the five Central Asian states and Washington met in Tashkent. The meeting came just days before a separate C5+1 critical minerals session in Astana, giving the week a wider agenda: cultural heritage, public diplomacy, mining, investment, and supply chains are now moving forward in the same regional format. The Tashkent meeting brought together Uzbekistan's Minister of Culture Ozodbek Nazarbekov, Kazakhstan's Minister of Culture and Information Aida Balayeva, Kyrgyzstan's Minister of Culture, Information and Youth Policy Mirbek Mambetaliev, Tajikistan's Minister of Culture Matluba Sattoriyon, Turkmenistan's Deputy Minister of Culture Gurbanmurad Miradaliev, and Sarah Rogers, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs. The agenda covered cultural and humanitarian cooperation, joint cultural projects, creative exchanges, and the protection and promotion of cultural heritage. Participants discussed a permanent C5+1 Working Group on Culture, a C5+1 Culture and Innovation Forum, closer cooperation in the creative industries, and more places for Central Asian cultural professionals in U.S. education and exchange programs. Uzbekistan also proposed joint English for Culture centers with U.S. partners at cultural education institutions. In practical terms, that could mean joint training for museum staff, touring exhibitions, film and music exchanges, English-language programs for curators and cultural managers, and U.S.-backed workshops for people working in heritage, tourism, and the creative industries. For Uzbekistan, the proposed centers would give the agenda a physical base inside cultural education institutions rather than leaving it at the level of declarations. The meeting ended with a protocol, which reaffirmed the parties' commitment to the cultural heritage agenda adopted after the Washington summit in November 2025. The International Institute for Central Asia said it covered cooperation through joint events and festivals in art, literature, theater, cinema, and music. Kazakhstan's side also tied the discussion to museum partnerships, digitization of heritage, professional exchanges, tourism routes, and digital projects. The Tashkent talks grew out of the C5+1 leaders’ meeting in Washington, where culture joined a wider list of priorities. That summit marked ten years of U.S. engagement with the region through the format, which began in 2015 and has since expanded from foreign-minister meetings to expert groups and presidential-level summits. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the November 2025 summit shifted the format from broad diplomacy toward deliverable agreements, with critical minerals, aviation, supply chains, and business ties among the main areas of focus. Culture fits into that agenda, as Central Asian governments see heritage, tourism, film, music, museums, and the creative industries as economic sectors as well as identity markers. For the United States, public diplomacy gives Washington a way to stay active in the region outside security and energy talks. It also gives the C5+1 a soft-power layer, using language programs, museum links, heritage projects, and creative exchanges to build influence without framing the relationship only around security or resources. Heritage protection has a security side as well. Trafficking...

2 days ago

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team covers the latest Eurasian Economic Union talks, a new defence deal between Moscow and a very unlikely ally, Kazakhstan putting itself forward to play a major role in the Iran nuclear talks, Turkmenistan once again conscripting public servants into forced labour, new developments in the Tashiev trial, and a major crackdown on madrasas and religious institutions in southern Kyrgyzstan. Before then turning to our main story this week, where Kyrgyzstan has just won itself a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, a major diplomatic breakthrough for the country, and a massive development for Central Asia more broadly. Special guest: Kadyr Toktogul (Fmr. Kyrgyz Ambassador to the United States and Canada)

2 days ago

Nuclear Energy

Uzbekistan Begins Construction of First Nuclear Power Plant

Uzbekistan has started building its first nuclear power plant, turning a project discussed for nearly a decade into one of the largest energy commitments in the country's post-Soviet history. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin launched construction on June 4 by video link from Saint Petersburg. The plant site in the Forish district of the Jizzakh region was connected to the ceremony. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also took part. The first concrete pour began overnight from June 4 to June 5 for the foundation slab of the plant's first small modular unit. The first stage used 133 cubic meters of concrete. The full pour is expected to exceed 10,000 cubic meters. Uzatom gave the site the official status of a nuclear power plant under construction under IAEA standards. The plan is no longer the modest small-reactor scheme agreed in 2024. The current design combines two large VVER-1000 reactors with two smaller RITM-200N units. Together, they would give the Jizzakh plant more than 2.1 GW of installed capacity. The small and large units will share one site and supporting infrastructure. That shift raised both the scale and the financial and regulatory stakes. This design is the latest version of a plan that has changed several times. Uzbekistan and Russia signed an intergovernmental agreement on peaceful nuclear cooperation in 2017. In 2018, Rosatom was expected to build two VVER-1200 reactors. The focus later shifted to Jizzakh. In May 2024, Uzbekistan and Rosatom signed a contract for a 330 MW small nuclear plant with six RITM-200N reactors. The plan changed again in 2025, when Tashkent and Moscow settled on the larger mixed-reactor format now under construction. The timetable shows how long the project will take before Uzbekistan gets power from it. The first RITM-200N unit is listed for criticality in late 2029, with the two larger VVER-1000 reactors expected in 2033 and 2035. The push reflects Uzbekistan's fast-rising demand for power. The International Energy Agency says the country's 2020-2030 electricity concept aims to lift generation from 63.6 billion kWh to 120.8 billion kWh by 2030, while cutting gas use in power generation. Uzbekistan produced 86.7 billion kWh in 2025. Renewable power is growing, but officials want a steady baseload supply for industry and cities. Uzbek and Russian estimates put full annual output at about 17 billion kWh. Putin put the future share at up to 15% of Uzbekistan's electricity use, with Reuters also placing the expected contribution at around 15% of demand. Those figures depend on the timing of each unit and on future consumption, which is still rising. Financing is now one of the central questions. Uzatom director Azim Akhmedkhadjaev put the project's base price at $9.5 billion and described that figure as the maximum contract amount. The estimate does not include planned localization, which Uzbekistan wants to raise to 30%. Tashkent wants loans to cover 85-90% of the project and may discuss funding with the New Development Bank and other partners. Russia...

5 days ago

China

Kazakhstan Turns to China and Hong Kong for Deals, Yuan Debt, and Market Access

Kazakhstan has opened a new phase in its economic ties with China, with a large package of Hong Kong and mainland Chinese agreements arriving alongside Kazakhstan’s first sovereign borrowing in China’s domestic bond market. The two steps show Astana is moving beyond trade growth into finance, listings, yuan debt, and China-linked capital for infrastructure and industry. On June 2, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin met a delegation of about 70 business representatives from Hong Kong and mainland China. Kazakhstan’s government said the group included 40 Hong Kong companies and 30 mainland Chinese companies working in finance, logistics, technology, energy, industry, and professional services. The visit produced four intergovernmental memoranda and 42 commercial agreements. Together, they covered aviation, finance, trade, innovation, technology, the digital economy, and green development. Hong Kong’s government gave a separate count, saying its business delegation had so far concluded 43 memoranda and agreements in Kazakhstan. The same statement said Hong Kong and Kazakhstan would move ahead with exploratory talks on a comprehensive double-taxation agreement and an investment promotion and protection agreement. A Hong Kong airline plans to launch direct flights to Almaty in the first quarter of 2027, which would add a practical link to the new finance and trade agenda. Officials discussed bond issuance, yuan funding, listings by Kazakh companies in Hong Kong, joint investment funds, and large investment projects. Baiterek National Managing Holding signed cooperation documents with Bank of China (Hong Kong), Invest Hong Kong, and Standard Chartered Hong Kong. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, which operates the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, also signed two memoranda in Kazakhstan, including one with the Astana International Exchange. The two exchanges plan to work on cross-border listings of shares and debt securities. The agreements came days after Kazakhstan completed its debut sovereign panda bond, a renminbi-denominated instrument sold in mainland China by a foreign issuer. The Finance Ministry raised 3.4 billion yuan (about $500 million) through three-year sovereign bonds. The bonds carried a 1.9% yield, and demand exceeded supply by two times. The issue was listed on the Beijing Financial Assets Exchange and the Astana International Exchange. The sovereign issue followed earlier yuan deals by state-linked Kazakh issuers. Development Bank of Kazakhstan placed 2 billion yuan in three-year yuan-denominated Eurobonds in September 2025, the first such issue in Central Asia. KazMunayGas raised 1.25 billion yuan in October through a five-year offshore yuan-denominated bond. Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, closed the order book for 3 billion yuan in debut panda bonds in April 2026. Together with the sovereign bond, those issues total 9.65 billion yuan. The figures cover more than central-government borrowing. The National Bank of Kazakhstan defines external debt as liabilities of residents to non-residents. It includes debt obligations of both the public and private sectors. A country breakdown drawn from National Bank data shows Kazakhstan’s external debt to Chinese creditors rose to $12.87 billion at the start of 2026, up from $9.29 billion at the end of 2024. The new panda...

1 week ago

Eco Expo

Eco Expo Opens in Samarkand as Uzbekistan Pushes Green Investment

Eco Expo Central Asia 2026 opened on June 2 at the Expo Center of Silk Road Samarkand, placing Uzbekistan’s green economy plans before officials, lenders, companies, scientists, and environmental groups already gathered in the city. The exhibition is scheduled to run through June 4 and is being held alongside the Eighth Assembly of the Global Environment Facility, one of the main global forums for environmental finance. The timing gives Uzbekistan a rare week of attention on climate, water, biodiversity, and clean technology. The GEF Assembly runs from May 30 to June 6 in Samarkand. The GEF says its Assembly is its highest governing body, made up of 186 member countries, and meets once every four years. GEF Council meetings are scheduled from May 31 to June 3, before the formal Assembly sessions later in the week. Eco Expo has a more practical focus. Its exhibition sections include protected natural areas, clean technology, green construction, transport, and energy, sustainable agriculture, green finance and green cities, ecotourism, water-saving technologies, environmental education, artificial intelligence in ecology, and the Aral Sea region. The business program includes lectures, seminars, panels, and roundtables for registered visitors. Uzbekistan’s state news agency UzA has said that approximately 10,000 participants from Uzbekistan and abroad are expected. The exhibition will include more than 68 pavilions for environmental products, plus 20 pavilions for startup projects from Central Asian countries. Organizers also plan more than 50 forums, presentations, and discussion platforms on green energy, waste recycling, water resource management, and sustainable development. The exhibition - organized by Uzbekistan’s National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change with Business Congress Management - is designed to turn local environmental plans into fundable projects. Regions and districts across Uzbekistan have prepared proposals for donors and investors, covering climate adaptation, better use of natural resources, and practical steps to make local economies more resilient. For Uzbekistan, the meetings are a chance to move from broad pledges to project lists, budgets, and partners. Farms need more efficient irrigation; cities need cleaner transport and better waste systems; protected areas need long-term funding. The expo brings those needs into one room with development banks, UN agencies, foreign governments, and companies looking for green projects. The GEF meetings bring the process closer to the expo floor. The fund says it has provided more than $26 billion in financing over three decades, and has helped mobilize another $148 billion for country-led environmental projects. In Samarkand, the 71st GEF Council meeting opened ahead of the Assembly and Eco Expo. Its agenda includes biodiversity protection, sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy, energy storage, the GEF-9 programming strategy, and support for vulnerable countries. Uzbekistan already has a working portfolio with the GEF, which includes 13 projects worth $56 million and five more projects worth more than $30 million in the pipeline. The projects cover biodiversity, snow leopard protection, restoration of ecosystems in the Aral Sea region, climate resilience, land management, and waste management. The week arrives as Uzbekistan faces rising climate stress. The World Bank has described...

1 week ago

Film Festival

Eurasian Film Festival in London Showcases Cinema from Central Asia and Beyond

The ninth edition of the ECG Eurasian Film Festival has concluded in London, bringing together films from Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the wider post-Soviet space. The festival, held in partnership with the Romford Film Festival, was created to promote Eurasian cinema in the English-speaking world and connect filmmakers from the region with international audiences and industry professionals. It is also listed by FestivalFinder, the European Festivals Association’s platform for film festivals. The festival still gives filmmakers from smaller Eurasian film industries access to London audiences and industry professionals. Too often, movies from across Eurasia are framed through a narrow lens as “regional,” “political,” or useful mainly for their cultural differences. The London program suggests something broader. Its strongest entries were not simply statements about places, but stories about youth, memory, technology, art, identity, and imagination. This year, the top prize went to K-Poper by Iranian director Ebrahim Amini. The film follows a teenage girl who becomes fascinated by a Korean pop star and dreams of traveling to Seoul, despite her mother’s opposition. It is a story rooted in Iran, but its subject is immediately recognizable: pop culture, generational tension, and the private worlds young people build for themselves. Other winners showcased the range of the program. The animation prize went to Swiss photographer Bellopropello for a film about the way smartphones are reshaping human behavior. Best Documentary was awarded to Russian director Vladimir Sumashedov for a film about an artist who tries to confront the violence of World War II through art. The Best Book Trailer award went to Armenian writer Elena Aslanyan’s The Gold of the Aryans. Central Asian works also formed a key part of the selection. The Uzbek film Batyr Zakirov & Frank Sinatra: The Meeting That Could Have Happened... won the Audience Choice Award, imagining a cultural encounter between the Soviet East and American popular music. Kazakhstan was represented by Saule Rysbaeva’s Children, the Seeds of the Future, while Uzbekistan’s Legends of the Great Silk Road revisited the region’s cultural inheritance through animation. The value of festivals like ECG is not only in the awards. It is in giving audiences a chance to see Eurasian cinema as cinema first: varied, ambitious, and fully part of the global film conversation.

1 week ago

EAEU

Putin’s Astana Visit Shows What Russia Still Wants From Kazakhstan

The Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana gave Vladimir Putin's state visit a wider stage. The summit produced technical documents and familiar language about integration. The bilateral Russia-Kazakhstan package around it was more concrete. It showed what Moscow still wants from Kazakhstan, and what Astana expects in return. The detail lies in infrastructure, where contracts can last for decades. The setting echoed history. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia signed the treaty creating the Eurasian Economic Union in Astana on May 29, 2014, with Armenia joining in January 2015, and Kyrgyzstan in August of the same year. In 2026, the bloc returned to Astana for the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the V Eurasian Economic Forum. The theme of the forum was artificial intelligence, digital regulation, and the EAEU's place in the global technology race. Its website said 14 integration documents were signed on the sidelines, including memoranda, agreements, protocols, and joint action plans. Those documents gave the visit a regional frame. The larger result came on May 28, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Putin oversaw a broad set of bilateral agreements. Akorda listed nuclear power, Russian export credit, expanded oil-sector cooperation, a tenge-ruble currency swap, education projects, financial monitoring, transport digitalization, and nuclear safety regulation. That package points to the real agenda: energy, transit, payments, industrial production, and public-facing alliance language. For Moscow, Kazakhstan’s primary value is geographic: it sits between Russia and China, and across routes that connect Central Asia to Europe, the Caspian, and South Asia. Russian crude already crosses Kazakhstan on the Priirtyshsk-Atasu-Alashankou route to China. A KazTransOil contract keeps transit at 10 million tons a year until the end of 2033. The tariff is $15 per ton, excluding VAT. The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline has a design capacity of 20 million tons a year and belongs to Kazakhstan-China Pipeline LLP, a 50-50 venture between KazTransOil and China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company. Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan agreed last year to raise that flow by 2.5 million tons, although the extra volume had not started flowing before Putin’s visit. The new agreement on oil-sector cooperation gives the issue a political push. For Moscow, the route strengthens access to China as Western sanctions keep pressure on Russian exports and payments. For Kazakhstan, it brings fees and gives Astana a useful position in Russia-China energy flows. The nuclear agreement, meanwhile, gives Russia a long-term role in Kazakhstan’s shift to nuclear power. Kazakhstan and Russia signed a $16.5 billion agreement for the Balkhash nuclear power plant at Ulken, near Lake Balkhash. The project covers two VVER-1200 III+ reactors. Kazakhstan held a groundbreaking ceremony for the plant in August 2025, with the active construction phase expected to begin in 2027, and the first reactor expected in early 2034. Russia will provide export credit for the first plant, with Rosatom leading the Balkhash project after competition with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), France’s EDF, and Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power. But Kazakhstan has not handed the wider program to Moscow....

2 weeks ago

Fuel prices

Central Asia Feels Fuel Strain as Kazakhstan Prices Edge Higher

Kazakhstan's fuel market is moving into a new phase after the end of the government freeze on AI-92 gasoline and diesel. Pump prices have risen by small amounts so far. Retail prices are rising cautiously amid growing pressure from neighbors where fuel costs more. Kazakhstan still has some of the cheapest gasoline in the region, but that advantage creates a risk: cheap fuel attracts cross-border demand and makes it harder to fund the refining capacity the country says it needs. On October 16, 2025, Kazakhstan's government introduced a moratorium on further increases in AI-92 gasoline and diesel as part of a wider anti-inflation package. The decision also put the Energy Ministry, the competition agency, and regional authorities in charge of keeping supplies stable. The measure came after inflation and tariff reforms had raised concerns about household costs. The freeze ended on April 1, 2026, but by mid-April, the Energy Ministry was still trying to calm expectations. Kazinform cited Vice Minister of Energy Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbayev on April 14 as saying most prices had risen mainly by one tenge after the moratorium was lifted, and that the state would not allow a sharp jump. The tone matched what drivers were seeing: a controlled rise rather than a sudden reset. The memory of January 2022, when an LPG price jump helped spark unrest, still hangs over fuel policy. The end of the freeze also fed into inflation expectations. National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov warned in April that renewed growth in fuel prices and utility tariffs had to be handled cautiously, because a sharp reset could reverse the slowdown in inflation. The National Bank later said reforms in utility tariffs and fuel prices accounted for 32.9% of household inflation expectations in March. That made the fuel moratorium more than a pump-price measure: it was one of the state’s main tools for containing expectations while inflation remained in double digits. An April 9 check by Tengri Auto found that most filling stations in Almaty and the surrounding area were still selling fuel close to the previous price range. Several major networks, however, had already moved AI-92 toward 240 tenge per liter. AI-95, which was not covered by the main freeze, had risen to 328 tenge at one network. A Kazinform market check published on May 25 showed the same gradual pattern. AI-92 was listed at 238-239 tenge per liter in Astana, 238-241 tenge in Almaty, and 224-227 tenge in Shymkent. Diesel stood at 329 tenge in Astana, 330-337 tenge in Almaty, and 332-335 tenge in Shymkent. The figures point to a market that is moving, but still under close control. Fuel is also feeding into Kazakhstan's broader inflation picture. The Bureau of National Statistics put annual inflation at 10.6% in April 2026. Petrol prices were up 16.1% year-on-year and added 0.53 percentage points to annual price growth. Transport as a category added 1.1 percentage points. Fuel is one of the costs households notice most directly, and its effects spread through freight, food distribution, agriculture, taxis,...

2 weeks ago

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