Geopolitics - The Times Of Central Asia

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USAID’s Retreat from Kazakhstan: Central Asia Braces for a New Power Struggle

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has long been a key player in funding various projects in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, supporting both development initiatives and media organizations. However, under the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the agency's activities have been significantly curtailed. With USAID scaling back its operations, the question arises: Who will step in to fill the gap? USAID’s Departure: A Near Total Withdrawal While USAID is reducing its presence, it is not shutting down entirely. The Trump administration has announced plans to retain a mere 294 of the agency’s more than 10,000 employees worldwide, according to a BBC report. Following these drastic cuts, only twelve staff members will remain in USAID’s Africa bureau and eight in its Asia bureau. USAID’s website states that nearly all of its employees will be furloughed, foreign aid programs have been suspended, and control over the agency has effectively shifted to the U.S. State Department. The agency’s annual budget previously exceeded $50 billion. In Kazakhstan, USAID’s official website is now inaccessible. The platform contained key data, including lists of grant recipients - journalists, media professionals, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that received funding for various projects. While some USAID-backed initiatives supported modernization efforts, healthcare, and education, others were seen as promoting U.S. political interests. According to available data, in 2024, USAID allocated $15.2 million to Kazakhstan, distributed as follows: Healthcare - $8.8 million Democracy, human rights, and governance – $3.7 million Support programs - $1.39 million Peace and security - $833,000 Economic development - $438,000 Humanitarian assistance - $23,000 Education and social services - $4,000 Despite these allocations, Kazakhstan does not rank among the top ten recipients of USAID funding. The Trump administration has also disclosed additional details regarding U.S. foreign aid spending. White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that under President Joe Biden, $4.5 million was allocated to combat disinformation in Kazakhstan. Leavitt criticized such expenditures, claiming that alongside Kazakhstan’s disinformation initiatives, U.S. taxpayers had also funded projects such as gender reassignment programs in Guatemala ($2 million), tourism promotion in Egypt ($6 million), a new Sesame Street show in Iraq ($20 million). Reactions in Kazakhstan Public opinion in Kazakhstan regarding USAID's role is divided. Many officials and commentators have criticized what they perceive as foreign interference in the country’s internal affairs. Mazhilis Deputy Magerram Magerramov has accused USAID of lobbying for the interests of the LGBT community, citing U.S. officials, including Elon Musk and Donald Trump, who have labeled USAID a “criminal organization.” “Official White House statements claim that USAID has been unaccountable to U.S. taxpayers and has funneled huge sums into ‘absurd’ and ‘harmful’ projects. For example, between 2022 and 2025, USAID allocated $2 million to ‘strengthen human rights and equality’ in Central Asia. However, the program’s executor is the European International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Intersex Association. We need full transparency regarding which funds are allocated, by whom, for what purposes, and who benefits from them. This must end in Kazakhstan,” Magerramov stated. The...

Jackson-Vanik Amendment Global Diplomacy Geopolitics Bilateral Relations Regional Relations

Jackson-Vanik and Kazakhstan: One Step Away from Repeal

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, raising hopes among Central Asian leaders - particularly in Kazakhstan - that his recent comments regarding the Jackson-Vanik amendment may soon translate into concrete action to repeal this outdated policy, which continues to hinder mutual trade. Passed in 1974 as part of the Trade Act under President Gerald Ford, the Jackson-Vanik amendment was designed to penalize countries with non-market economies that restricted emigration, particularly targeting the Soviet Union. The amendment specifically sought to pressure the USSR to allow its Jewish population to emigrate freely, while also protesting the suppression of Judaism and other religious practices. The amendment achieved a measure of success by 1989, when the Iron Curtain fell and Soviet Jews were permitted to emigrate in large numbers, primarily to Israel and the United States. However, the policy remained in place, even after the dissolution of the USSR, applying to the newly independent Central Asian republics despite their vastly different political and economic landscapes. On January 15, Rubio delivered a nearly five-hour confirmation speech during a Senate hearing for his nomination as Secretary of State under the Donald Trump administration. Among the topics discussed was the Jackson-Vanik amendment. Senator Steve Daines specifically asked Rubio for his position on the amendment, emphasizing that its repeal could normalize U.S. trade relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Rubio described the amendment as “an absurd relic of the past,” asserting that it no longer serves any meaningful purpose in pressuring Central Asian countries on human rights. He warned that continued use of such measures could push nations like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan closer to Russia’s sphere of influence. Rubio singled out Kazakhstan, noting that the country had “successfully met the conditions” to transition to a market economy, as evidenced by its accession to the World Trade Organization several years ago. He pledged to work with lawmakers to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, signaling a shift in U.S. policy toward fostering deeper economic ties with the region. Why Central Asia Was Left Behind The continued application of the Jackson-Vanik amendment to Central Asia can be partially explained by the differing domestic policies of its key players - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Under Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan quickly abandoned Soviet-era restrictions on emigration and took steps to promote religious tolerance and interfaith harmony. By contrast, Uzbekistan under Islam Karimov maintained many of the Soviet Union’s repressive practices, including restrictions on religious minorities. This disparity in policies contributed to Washington’s perception of the region as monolithic and resistant to reform, discouraging efforts to lift the amendment. Recent Developments and Challenges In recent years, there have been efforts to lower trade barriers between the U.S. and Central Asia, particularly through initiatives like the B5+1 dialogue, which aims to attract greater Western investment to the region. However, the Jackson-Vanik amendment complicates these efforts, as countries must secure an annual waiver from the U.S. President to maintain normal trade relations. Kazakhstan has emerged as the frontrunner in advocating for the amendment’s repeal. An...

Green Transition Global Diplomacy Geopolitics Water-Saving Technologies Global Outlook UAE Green Transport Sustainable Development

Kazakh President Proposes Solutions to Climate Threats at Abu Dhabi Summit

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week summit, where global leaders and experts convened to address pressing challenges in sustainable development. In his address, Tokayev highlighted the urgent threats posed by climate change, desertification, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity - issues exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global supply chains. Kazakhstan’s Strategy for Sustainability Tokayev presented Kazakhstan’s roadmap for tackling these challenges, focusing on digitalization, major infrastructure projects, and nuclear energy. Noting that global energy systems account for 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, he underscored Kazakhstan’s commitment to green energy development. The country is collaborating with international partners, including Masdar, Total, and Eni, to implement projects to generate 43 GW of renewable energy. Additionally, Tokayev highlighted the strategic importance of constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, an initiative supported through a national referendum. Regional Connectivity and Transport Infrastructure Addressing the role of transportation in sustainable development, Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan’s position as a key transit hub in Eurasia. He called for further development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor to enhance regional connectivity and strengthen global supply chains. Sustainable transport infrastructure, he argued, is essential for driving economic growth across the region. Climate and Food Security in Central Asia Tokayev devoted significant attention to the challenges facing Central Asia, particularly the impact of global warming on ecosystems and agriculture. He proposed the introduction of water-saving technologies, the modernization of irrigation systems, and the application of artificial intelligence to better manage water resources. On food security, Tokayev outlined Kazakhstan’s plan to advance sustainable agricultural practices and technologies, aiming to mitigate climate risks while ensuring reliable food supplies. A Global Paradigm Shift Tokayev called on the international community to adopt a new development paradigm based on green finance, the transfer of climate-friendly technologies, and the integration of artificial intelligence with environmental priorities. He emphasized that aligning these strategies could significantly boost global GDP by 2030 while addressing environmental challenges. Summit Collaboration and Hope for the Future The Kazakh President concluded his speech by expressing optimism that the summit could serve as a turning point in harmonizing global priorities for sustainable development. The event featured participation from other prominent leaders, including Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and President of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Razan Al Mubarak. Together, the dignitaries reinforced the need for global cooperation in confronting environmental and economic challenges.

Reforms Interview Tokayev Trump Geopolitics president Foreign Policy Nazarbayev Politics

Tokayev on Kazakhstan’s Future: Reforms, Diplomacy, and Global Leadership

In an interview with the Kazakh newspaper Ana Tili, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev discussed pressing domestic and international policy issues shaping Kazakhstan's development. Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s role as a stabilizing force in the international arena during a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. “My main goal is to strengthen the economic potential, sovereignty, and international position of our state. From the very beginning of my presidency, I have taken full responsibility for the decisions I make and their consequences. I cannot and do not want to work any other way,” Tokayev stated. [caption id="attachment_27253" align="aligncenter" width="750"] Image: Akorda[/caption] Reflecting on Qantar - Building a Just Kazakhstan Tokayev addressed the January 2022 unrest - Qantar - describing the upheaval as a consequence of deep-rooted social injustice and political stagnation. “Three years after Qantar, most of our citizens understand that the unprecedented unrest was driven by social inequality, political stagnation, and the self-serving ambitions of the conspirators,” Tokayev said, warning against the spread of misinformation surrounding the events and emphasized that decisive action was necessary to preserve Kazakhstan’s sovereignty. Tokayev reiterated his commitment to creating a fairer Kazakhstan where all citizens are equal before the law. “Justice is not universal equalization. My course on the fair distribution of national wealth does not mean total expropriation or redistribution of property and assets. Such a policy would lead to degradation and chaos. Instead, we aim to eliminate illegal privileges and return unlawfully acquired assets to the state as part of our modernization strategy,” the president said. Relations with Nazarbayev While acknowledging the achievements of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president, Tokayev also critiqued certain aspects of his leadership. “After resigning but remaining chairman of the Security Council, he often held meetings with key officials, creating confusion and sparking rumors of dual power. This situation led some to claim that the Elbasy Institute should supersede presidential authority,” Tokayev noted. He further revealed that Nazarbayev had considered returning to power in 2021, citing his strong ties to Moscow. Advancing Political Reforms and International Relations Tokayev pointed to the successful implementation of key political reforms, emphasizing greater openness and the activation of public participation. “The concept of ‘Strong President, Influential Parliament, Accountable Government’ best suits Kazakhstan’s political system. However, achieving this fully requires sustained effort,” Tokayev explained, reaffirming his belief that a presidential system remains the optimal governance model for Kazakhstan. Tokayev also elaborated on relations with major powers, including Russia, China, and the United States, underscoring the importance of Kazakhstan’s partnership with Russia, highlighting their shared border and deep economic ties. “President Putin is an experienced statesman who values Kazakhstan’s strategic importance as Central Asia’s largest economy. Our constant communication fosters stability in Eurasia,” Tokayev said. He described Kazakhstan’s cooperation with China as dynamic and multifaceted, elevating their relationship to the level of an "eternal strategic partnership." Tokayev also mentioned his conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, noting Trump’s positive view of Kazakhstan as a strategic partner. Nuclear Power Plans, Middle Powers and Global Stability On nuclear energy, Tokayev...

Trump Global Diplomacy Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs Geopolitics USA Central Asia

Opinion: What Will a New Trump Presidency Mean for Central Asia?

During his first presidency, Donald Trump introduced a foreign policy approach that recalibrated U.S. engagement with Central Asia, a region strategically critical yet overshadowed by the influence of China and Russia. Trump’s policies, targeting the collective challenge of CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), aimed to foster regional autonomy and counter external dependency. This policy shift, aimed at countering the global influence of CRINK has extended to the vital region of Central Asia. Further, it is geographically wedged between Russia and China and serves as a critical bridge for U.S. interests. The CRINK nations, in their regional strategies, have made substantial inroads in Central Asia. Additionally, each nation is pursuing influence through economic, political, or military avenues. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union, for instance, have been noted as major forces reshaping Central Asian economies as well as infrastructure. In 2013, the BRI of China was launched, which has channeled billions into roads, railways, and other infrastructure projects in Central Asia, seeking to create new trade routes connecting Asia to Europe. On the other side, Russia has promoted its Eurasian Economic Union as a trading bloc that has aimed at fostering economic integration among Central Asia and neighboring countries. These initiatives have provided economic incentives for Central Asia but also intensified its reliance on external powers, particularly China and Russia. During his presidency, Trump emphasized a CRINK-focused strategy, which prioritized Central Asia's sovereignty and reduced dependency on China and Russia. This strategy laid the groundwork for U.S. engagement in the region, influencing current policy directions. In 2020, Trump’s administration unveiled a comprehensive strategy for Central Asia, marking the first such effort in over two decades. The policy emphasized U.S. support for border security and defense collaboration, including financial aid to Tajikistan and military training for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These measures, though initiated under Trump, continue to shape current U.S. approaches to combating terrorism and fostering regional stability. For example, the U.S. has established the C5+1 initiative as a dialogue platform between the United States and the five Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). It was developed further to promote mutual goals in regional security, economic development, and environmental resilience. Security cooperation is a vital aspect of this U.S. strategy which has given the threats of terrorism and also potential instability at CRINK’s peripheries (Sciutto, 2024). In particular, Afghanistan’s proximity to Central Asia poses both risks as well as opportunities for these nations. The U.S. has provided financial support to Tajikistan to strengthen border security and counter drug trafficking. Furthermore, while also assisting Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with training and equipment to improve their defense capabilities the US has financially supported the nation. This military cooperation has aimed to prevent the encroachment of extremist groups like ISIS, which could exploit regional instability and threaten U.S. interests. Trump’s presidency emphasized private sector investments as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Although modest compared to China’s commitments, these investments reflected an effort to...

United States Politics Geopolitics

Turkmenistan’s Geopolitical Shift Toward the West

Turkmenistan, whose foreign policy since 1995 has been based on the principle of permanent neutrality, is reportedly seeking to establish closer ties with the West, primarily with the United States. The energy-rich nation has long expressed an intention to export natural gas to Europe, but its leadership’s recent moves suggest that Ashgabat might also aim to develop closer political and economic relations with Western countries. Over the past few months, Turkmen and American officials have held several very important meetings. Most recently, on November 25, Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov hosted Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana and member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. The fact that the Turkmen leader told the American politician that Ashgabat is “implementing a strategy for diversifying energy export routes” clearly shows that Turkmenistan’s ambition to begin exporting natural gas to Europe was on the agenda. But energy was unlikely the only reason why Daines came to Ashgabat. He also met with the Turkmen Minister of Foreign Affairs Rashid Meredov, with whom he discussed “key aspects of partnership cooperation in political and diplomatic, trade and economic, cultural, humanitarian and other spheres.” According to reports, “the active dynamics of development of political ties at the highest state level was emphasized,” indicating that Turkmenistan has begun implementing its 2023 plan to strengthen ties with the United States. Moreover, as a result of the U.S. Senator’s visit to Ashgabat, a meeting of the Turkmenistan-US Business Council is scheduled to take place later this month. One of the reasons why the Turkmen authorities seek deeper economic ties with Washington is because they hope that such an approach can help their country join the World Trade Organization (WTO). On November 20-22, just days before Daines’ visit to Turkmenistan, the Ministry of Finance and Economy organized a training seminar as part of the country's preparation for joining the WTO. Interestingly enough, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) “made a significant contribution to the event's preparation”, while the U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan Elizabeth Rood attended the seminar. The United States undoubtedly sees Turkmenistan as an important regional actor. In February, American companies including John Deere, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, and General Electric met with the Turkmen business delegation in Washington, discussing various forms of cooperation. Nine months later, on November 6, Rahimberdi Dzhepbarov, Chairman of the Board of the State Bank for Foreign Economic Activity of Turkmenistan, was on a working visit to Washington to discuss “issues of further strengthening economic and environmental cooperation with the United States.” The following day, according to the Turkmen Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the U.S. “highly praised Turkmenistan's achievements in fulfilling its international commitments on climate change.” But Washington did not always have such a positive view on Turkmenistan. In 2018, in an annual State Department report, Ashgabat was criticized for "alleged torture, arbitrary arrests and detentions, involuntary confinement, imprisonment of political prisoners, severe corruption, lack of free and fair elections, and restrictions on freedom of religion, assembly, and movement.” Also, in...