Regional Cooperation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Iran

Iran War Tests Emerging C5–Azerbaijan Solidarity

In an effort to coordinate responses to the Mideast conflict, the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries, as well as Azerbaijan, have spoken together by telephone about the widening crisis. The call marked one of the clearest signs yet that the Central Asian “C5” format is evolving beyond economic coordination into an operational diplomatic mechanism during external crises. While the group has met frequently in recent years with major partners, direct coordination over a fast-moving conflict on its periphery reflects a shift toward more structured regional crisis management. The consultation also builds on the expansion last year of the Central Asian consultative format to include Azerbaijan, sometimes referred to as the “C6,” a shift that has increasingly aligned Caspian corridor strategy with regional diplomatic coordination. “During the conversation, the ministers exchanged detailed views on the evolving military and political situation in the Middle East, noting the importance of maintaining close coordination and prompt interaction amid the crisis,” Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Monday. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev of Kazakhstan thanked his counterparts from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which border Iran, for their help in the evacuations of people fleeing Iranian territory. U.S. and Israeli air strikes have hit targets across Iran, whose military has fired retaliatory waves of missiles and drones at Israel as well as U.S. military facilities and civilian areas in Gulf countries. Azerbaijan’s participation underscores its growing integration into Central Asia’s diplomatic orbit. As a Caspian state bordering Iran and a critical link in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, Baku has become an indispensable partner in both evacuation logistics and broader corridor security. The call reflects growing cohesion among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan. The region is seeking more robust trade routes linking Asia and Europe, while maintaining solidarity and balancing relationships with larger powers, including China, Russia, and the United States. In addition to Kosherbayev, the foreign ministers on the call were Jeyhun Bayramov of Azerbaijan, Jeenbek Kulubaev of Kyrgyzstan, Sirojiddin Muhriddin of Tajikistan, Rashid Meredov of Turkmenistan, and Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan. The ministers said they were committed to political and diplomatic means as a way to solve conflicts. “At the conclusion of the call, the parties expressed their readiness to continue providing the necessary support in organizing the possible evacuation of citizens, as well as to maintain close working contacts through the foreign ministries,” the statement from Kazakhstan stated. Notably, the ministers’ language avoided assigning blame or aligning with any side in the conflict, instead emphasizing diplomacy and stability. That careful wording reflects the region’s longstanding strategy of balancing relations with Washington, Moscow, Beijing, and regional powers without being drawn into geopolitical confrontation.

Water Scarcity

Central Asia and the Global Water Crisis: A Test of Governance and Cooperation

Water scarcity is rapidly transforming from a regional environmental concern into one of the defining global security challenges of the 21st century. UN-linked assessments estimate that around four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month each year, and nearly three-quarters of the global population lives in countries facing water insecurity. Against this backdrop, Central Asia is not an exception but rather a concentrated example of global dynamics: climate pressure, population growth, and inefficient resource management. Regional initiatives, including proposals put forward by Kazakhstan, therefore have the potential to contribute not only to stability in Central Asia but to the development of a more coherent global water governance architecture. The Water Crisis as a Global Reality Water is increasingly regarded as a strategic resource on par with energy and food. Climate change is intensifying droughts, floods, and the degradation of aquatic ecosystems across all regions, from Africa and the Middle East to South Asia, Europe, and North America. Recent mapping and analysis by investigative groups and international media indicate that half of the world’s 100 largest cities experience high levels of water stress, with dozens classified as facing extremely high levels. Major urban centers, including Beijing, New York, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, and Delhi, are among those under acute pressure, while cities such as London, Bangkok, and Jakarta are also categorized as highly stressed. In this context, Central Asia is not an outlier. It is confronting today what may soon become the global norm. Central Asia: Where Global Trends Converge A defining feature of the current environmental situation is that factors beyond natural ones drive the water crisis. Experts increasingly stress that shortages are often less about absolute physical scarcity and more about outdated management systems, infrastructure losses, and inefficient consumption patterns. In this respect, Central Asia can be seen as a testing ground for global water challenges, where multiple stress factors converge. The region, with mountain peaks exceeding 7,000 meters, contains some of the largest ice reserves outside the polar regions. The Pamir and Hindu Kush ranges, together with the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas, and the Tien Shan, form part of what is sometimes referred to as the “Third Pole,” the largest concentration of ice after the Arctic and Antarctic. [caption id="attachment_13410" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The White Horse Pass, Tajikistan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] However, the pace of change is alarming. By 2030-2040, water scarcity in Central Asia risks becoming chronic. Glaciers in the Western Tien Shan, for example, have reportedly shrunk by roughly 27% over the past two decades and continue to retreat, posing a direct threat to the flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. These rivers increasingly fail to reach the Aral Sea in sufficient volume, while the exposed seabed has become a major source of salt and dust storms. [caption id="attachment_21928" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Moynaq, Karakalpakstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Infrastructure inefficiencies compound the problem. Estimates suggest that in some systems, 40-50% of water can be lost in deteriorating...

UN Security Council

Kyrgyzstan UN Security Council Bid Gains Backing from Central Asian Neighbors

In a show of regional unity, the presidents of all of the Central Asian countries have endorsed Kyrgyzstan’s candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the 2027–2028 term. The joint appeal was announced on December 4 at a UN press briefing in New York by Uzbekistan’s Permanent Representative, Ulugbek Lapasov, who called on UN member states to support the bid. According to Lapasov, the endorsement reflects the region’s intent to strengthen its voice in international peace and security efforts. Kyrgyzstan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Aida Kasymalieva, welcomed the unified support from neighboring states. Kasymalieva said the move reflects “a shared commitment to peace, dialogue, and a constructive multilateral approach,” and emphasized that her country, if elected, would serve as “a responsible and principled” Council member that amplifies the voices of smaller and developing nations. A Regional Campaign with Global Aspirations Kyrgyzstan first announced its intention to seek a Security Council seat in 2017. The campaign gathered momentum in 2024, when President Sadyr Japarov told the UN General Assembly that it was time to correct the “historical injustice” of dozens of UN member states - Kyrgyzstan among them - never having served on the Council. Japarov also called for broader representation, especially for African countries, and pledged that Kyrgyzstan would work to make the Council more effective, transparent, and inclusive. In April 2025, Kyrgyzstan officially launched its campaign with a reception at UN Headquarters in New York. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev outlined Bishkek’s core priorities: conflict prevention, sustainable development for landlocked and mountainous nations, nuclear disarmament, and support for UN reform. The event drew diplomats from over 150 UN member states. The bid has become a central part of Bishkek’s foreign policy agenda, with senior officials describing it as a long-term investment in the country’s diplomatic standing. The vote for the 2027–2028 non-permanent seats will take place during the UN General Assembly session in June 2026, as scheduled under UN election procedures. Local media have reported that Kyrgyzstan’s main competitor for the Asia-Pacific seat is the Philippines, which has also announced its candidacy. This would not be the first time a Central Asian state has held a seat on the Council. Kazakhstan was elected for the 2017–2018 term, becoming the first country from the region to do so. Its campaign emphasized nuclear disarmament, regional security, and representing the interests of landlocked developing countries. Kyrgyzstan has framed its candidacy similarly, not just as a national endeavor, but as a platform for regional engagement on a global stage. Domestic Challenges, Global Aspirations While Kyrgyzstan pushes for a seat at the UN’s most powerful decision-making body, concerns persist over the country’s democratic trajectory. Once considered the most open society in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has seen a decline in civil liberties in recent years, with growing restrictions on independent media, increased pressure on NGOs, and a pattern of centralized political control under President Japarov. In 2021, Kyrgyzstan adopted a new constitution that expanded presidential powers and weakened checks and...

TCA Interviews

Why Regional Connectivity Is Reshaping Central Asia: Insights from ISRS Director Eldor Aripov (Part Two)

The Times of Central Asia presents the second part of an interview in Washington, D.C. with Eldor Aripov, Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan. Dr. Aripov sat down with our Washington Correspondent, Javier M. Piedra, to discuss Uzbekistan’s geoeconomic and geopolitical strategic thinking. The conversation focused on Uzbekistan’s and the region’s efforts to cooperate diplomatically to maintain peace and stability with neighbors, irrespective of historical “hotspots,” cultural sensitivities, or the all-important matter of water resources. Aripov comments on Afghanistan, Chabahar Port (Iran), Ferghana Valley, and business development – key for U.S. investors thinking about Uzbekistan and the broader Central Asian region. TCA: What message do you have for businesses and private investors who do not have any experience in Central Asia? Many companies are sniffing around at this time – what do you want to tell them? Aripov: Uzbekistan is ready for committed investors - those who deliver lasting benefits, quality jobs, and shared prosperity. A decade of reforms has strengthened our fiscal discipline, boosted SMEs, and anchored stability. Coupled with our focus on good relations and a secure, integrated Central Asia, we offer a reliable platform for long-term, sustainable investment. While we have more work to do, we invite you to be part of our momentum. TCA: What are the risks that companies might face when considering long-term investment? Aripov: No country is immune to downside risks – not only in the developed but developing world. Having said that, downside risks, including trade shocks, commodity price volatility, tighter external financing, and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises, are mostly exogenous factors driven by global conditions. Risks are mitigated through political stability, diversification of the economy, prudent macroeconomic management, and reforms to state-owned enterprises and governance. For more in-depth commentary, I refer you to recent IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank assessments about our economic conditions and trends. TCA: Let me move on to more regional issues. The first Ferghana Peace Forum was held in October 2025. How can it serve as a replicable model for other regions seeking sustainable peace? Aripov: First of all, I’d like to put this important forum on everyone’s radar. I’d like to underscore that peace is possible when hard work, respect for others, and a commitment to understanding guide our actions, despite historical memories and past differences. Someone should write a case study about our ability to bring consensus into an otherwise challenging region. In any event, the inaugural Ferghana Peace Forum brought together over 300 participants from more than 20 countries — representatives of Central Asian governments, international organizations, leading think tanks, research institutions, and local communities. A joint communiqué was adopted, confirming the intention to institutionalize the Forum as a permanent platform with rotating hosts. This broad participation highlighted an important reality: the Ferghana Valley is no longer viewed as a fragile zone; it is now viewed as a model of pragmatic peacebuilding. The Forum demonstrated how regional leadership — particularly the openness and...

ASEAN

Uzbekistan Gains ASEAN Approval to Join Cooperation Treaty

Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen its ties with Southeast Asia advanced significantly this week after all member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) approved Tashkent’s application to join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). The decision was made during a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers chaired by Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, according to the Dunyo news agency. Signed in Bali in 1976, the TAC outlines core principles for regional cooperation, including peaceful dispute resolution, non-interference, renunciation of force, and respect for sovereignty. ASEAN now comprises 11 countries with a combined population nearing 700 million, forming one of the world’s most dynamic economic regions. Uzbekistan’s accession to the TAC is expected to enhance its political and economic presence in Southeast Asia, facilitate state-to-state cooperation, boost trade and investment, and increase confidence among international companies operating in or considering expansion into Central Asia. Political analyst Jahongir Akramov described the approval as a significant diplomatic achievement for Uzbekistan. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, he said the move aligns closely with Uzbekistan’s foreign policy principles: “Uzbekistan’s joining this treaty can be seen as a very significant diplomatic success. One of the key reasons is that the core principles of the TAC fully match the principles set out in Article 17 of Uzbekistan’s Constitution, non-use of force, resolving conflicts peacefully, negotiating disputes, and respecting the sovereignty of states.” Akramov noted that since 2016, Uzbekistan’s foreign policy has evolved along three strategic vectors, all of which are reinforced by the TAC: “First, Uzbekistan adopted a multi-vector foreign policy. Second, the country has taken major steps to develop economic diplomacy. Third, we have been deepening regional integration. All three of these trends are fully consistent with joining the TAC.” He emphasized that the timing is especially relevant amid growing geopolitical strains: “Geopolitical tensions have intensified, particularly among the United States, China, and Russia. In this situation, participating in platforms such as ASEAN can help reduce pressure and maintain diplomatic balance.” Akramov also positioned Uzbekistan’s move as part of a broader Global South cooperation trend. “Central Asian and ASEAN countries are both part of the Global South. Building closer relations ensures our interests are better represented in shaping new international norms.” Economically, Akramov pointed to ASEAN’s size and diversity as highly advantageous. “ASEAN includes Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country, Singapore, a global innovation hub, Malaysia, an advanced and diversified economy, and Thailand, a leading tourism destination. Closer ties with these states could expand tourism, improve Uzbekistan’s international image, and boost the competitiveness of Uzbek products.” He added that ASEAN’s extensive experience with regional integration offers a model for Central Asia. “As one of the first Central Asian countries to join the TAC, Uzbekistan could take a leading role in fostering ASEAN-Central Asia cooperation. A regional office or cooperation structure based in Tashkent or Samarkand would be a major diplomatic achievement.” However, Akramov cautioned that the partnership would require careful navigation. “Southeast Asia has its own geopolitical tensions, such...

Water resources

Kazakhstan Trades Electricity for Water in Bid to Mitigate Summer Drought Risks

Central Asia is entering a new phase in the management of its water-energy nexus, moving from declarations to practical coordination. A trilateral protocol signed in Almaty by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan marked a significant step toward stabilizing the region’s water regime amid escalating climate risks. Brokered under Kazakhstan’s chairmanship, the agreement aims to balance the load on the Toktogul Reservoir, the main regulating structure of the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan typically increases winter water discharges to generate electricity, which reduces irrigation water availability downstream during summer. Under the new deal, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will supply Kyrgyzstan with electricity during winter, in return for Kyrgyzstan's commitment to store water and ensure its release during the 2026 growing season. The Almaty Protocol complements the existing plan for filling the Shardara Reservoir, which aims to accumulate 11 cubic kilometers of water by April 1, 2026. Achieving this target hinges on Toktogul’s operations. Without external support, Kyrgyzstan’s energy infrastructure would struggle to meet the requirement. Supplemental electricity from Astana and Tashkent thus forms the economic backbone of this arrangement. Longstanding disparities in regional water and energy needs remain a source of instability. Kyrgyzstan requires water in winter for hydropower, while Kazakhstan, especially its Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, relies on it in summer for irrigation. Recent water shortages have pushed the countries toward more pragmatic coordination. Uzbekistan has committed to managing the technical conditions for transit and balancing inter-system flows. Despite facing its own energy shortfall and aging infrastructure, Kazakhstan is participating in regional stabilization to avert socio-economic risks in its southern provinces. External factors are adding urgency to regional cooperation. Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal is expected to reduce the Amu Darya’s water balance by 20-25%. Although Uzbekistan is most directly affected, the resulting pressure on water systems could also impact the Syr Darya, on which southern Kazakhstan heavily depends. Internally, Kazakhstan faces persistent challenges. Water loss during transport reaches up to 40-50% due to outdated canal infrastructure. Rice cultivation continues in the water-intensive Kyzylorda region, while water-saving technologies are used on only about 30% of irrigated land. These new agreements suggest that Central Asian countries can rapidly implement collective mechanisms in response to shared threats. In effect, elements of a regional Water and Energy Consortium are already operating in a de facto, ad hoc manner. Water, energy, and food security are increasingly seen as interconnected resources requiring coordinated governance. For Kazakhstan, the priority now is to institutionalize these provisional agreements. If the “electricity-for-water” model can be formalized into a durable framework, it could stand as one of the most significant accomplishments of the country’s regional diplomacy.