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EAEU

Growing Trade Disputes Test the Eurasian Economic Union

Trade disputes within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are as old as its creation. Restrictions on the import and export of certain goods have long been common practice. However, analysts increasingly warn that tensions have reached a point at which the organization risks losing its core function, ensuring the free movement of goods across borders and maintaining simplified conditions for migrant workers. Mounting Restrictions The EAEU currently comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. Economic integration among several post-Soviet states began in 2000 with the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), formed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined in 2006, but suspended its participation in 2008. The foundation of this organization was the Customs Union agreement, intended to abolish customs duties among member states. The structure of the integration project has since evolved. The EAEU treaty was signed in 2014 and entered into force on January 1, 2015. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan did not join, while Armenia became a member in 2015. More than two decades after the first integration agreements, however, many of the bloc’s original promises remain only partially fulfilled. Experts have long argued that protectionist measures remain widespread within the bloc and that full freedom of movement for all categories of goods, including strategic products, has not been achieved. They also point to pronounced economic asymmetry: Russia accounts for approximately 85–87% of the union’s combined GDP, whereas Kazakhstan accounts for approximately 9–10%. Russia’s significantly larger population and political influence have further reinforced perceptions of structural imbalance. Moscow is now preparing new regulatory measures affecting its partners. From April 1, 2026, a national system for confirming the arrival of goods will be introduced for road imports from EAEU countries. According to the Russian authorities, shifting key control procedures to the pre-border stage is intended to improve transparency in the administration of indirect taxes. Previously, such checks were conducted after goods entered the country through desk and field audits. At the same time, Russia has intensified selective customs controls on its borders with Kazakhstan and Belarus, officially citing efforts to combat counterfeit goods. Particular scrutiny is being applied to product labelling and accompanying documentation. Controls were tightened last summer, when mobile checkpoints were established along the Kazakh-Russian border, followed by the inspections of vehicles leaving Belarus in the autumn. Full-scale checkpoints are now operating on the Kazakh-Russian border, while a simplified regime linked to the Union State and EAEU agreements continues to apply on the Belarusian-Russian border. Logistics industry representatives report that stricter controls on the Kazakh border have significantly increased transit delivery times. Carriers often face lengthy delays at checkpoints even when their documentation is in order. According to Alexandra Pokumeiko, head of a freight-forwarding department, the changes have created uncertainty in delivery schedules along Belarus-Russia transport corridors and on transit routes through Russia to Kazakhstan. The growing number of administrative restrictions has begun to spill into specific sectors of the economy, triggering retaliatory measures between member states. Escalating Tensions in the Automotive Sector A new dispute...

extradition

Kazakhstan Suspends Extradition of Navalny Associate as Courts Weigh Asylum Claim

Kazakhstan has suspended the extradition of Yulia Yemelyanova, a former staff member of Alexei Navalny’s St. Petersburg office, to Russia. Yemelyanova was detained in Almaty in August 2025 after the Russian authorities requested her transfer. The Prosecutor General’s Office halted the extradition after her lawyers filed appeals linked to her asylum claim. Earlier this month, authorities approved Russia’s request despite her pending asylum application. Her lawyer subsequently stated that he would challenge that approval before the Supreme Court. Russian investigators have accused Yemelyanova of theft linked to a 2021 case. Her defense rejects the charge and argues that the prosecution is politically motivated. Yemelyanova’s case fits into a broader pattern of extradition proceedings involving Russian nationals who relocated to Kazakhstan after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In late September 2022, Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry stated that nearly 100,000 Russians had entered the country following Moscow’s announcement of partial mobilization on September 21. “Most of them have to leave because of the hopeless situation. We have to take care of them and secure their safety,” Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said at the time. Many have remained. Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry reported that more than 80,000 Russian citizens received work-related residence permits between January 2023 and September 2024. Opinion in Kazakhstan on Navalny spans a wide and often divergent spectrum. When news of his death in a Russian penal colony broke in February 2024, responses across Central Asia ranged from sympathy to indifference. In Kazakhstan, some civic activists expressed concern over political repression in Russia, while others recalled Navalny’s past nationalist rhetoric and critical comments about migration from Central Asia. Those divergent views form the domestic context for cases involving former members of Navalny’s political network. Extradition proceedings unfold within a society that interprets Russian opposition politics through its own historical experience and social priorities. The relocation wave reshaped rental markets in Almaty and Astana in late 2022, as IT firms, logistics companies, and service businesses absorbed skilled migrants. At the same time, authorities tightened migration rules and reduced the duration of visa-free stays, signaling that temporary entry did not guarantee long-term residence. In 2024 and 2025, Russian extradition requests began to draw greater public attention, with several defendants seeking asylum while contesting their transfer. One prominent case involved Mansur Movlayev, a Chechen activist critical of Ramzan Kadyrov. In January 2026, Kazakhstan approved Russia’s extradition request after denying him refugee status. The UN Human Rights Committee registered a complaint in Movlayev’s case and requested that Kazakhstan refrain from extraditing him while the review proceeded. Kazakhstan’s Supreme Court subsequently suspended the extradition decision pending review connected to his asylum appeal. Kazakhstan’s Criminal Procedure Code governs extradition decisions and provides appeal mechanisms, with the Law on Refugees establishing procedures for reviewing asylum claims and defining protections from removal. International law reinforces these safeguards; the principle of non-refoulement prohibits returning a person to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. Kazakhstan’s extradition decisions are unfolding within a...

Migration

The Number of Migrants from Tajikistan to Russia Has Decreased Significantly

The number of citizens of Tajikistan applying to participate in Russia’s state "Program for the Voluntary Resettlement of Compatriots" has declined sharply, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. The issue drew public attention following remarks by the head of the Russian cultural organization Rossotrudnichestvo, Yevgeny Primakov. He stated that in the first three quarters of last year, 27,700 people received certificates to participate in the program, of whom 21,400 have already relocated to Russia. Applicants originated from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. However, official statistics indicate that Tajikistan is no longer among the leading source countries. In the first quarter of 2023, Tajik citizens accounted for 37.2% of all applications submitted under the program. By the first quarter of 2025, their share had fallen to 4.1%, moving the country from first place to seventh. In the third quarter of 2025, the share of applicants from Tajikistan dropped further to 2.4%, the lowest level recorded during the period under review. Kazakhstan ranked first in terms of the number of applications submitted. In the second and third quarters of 2025, most applications came from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As a result, Tajik citizens no longer play a leading role in the program, while the relative positions of other Central Asian countries have strengthened. Experts attribute the decline primarily to changes in program requirements. Since January 1, 2024, applicants have been required to demonstrate proficiency in the Russian language. Following the introduction of this requirement, the number of applications from Tajik citizens decreased markedly. Demographic factors may also have contributed. The average migrant family consists of approximately 2.3 people. This profile is more typical of Russian-speaking and non-indigenous populations in the region, which may have influenced the redistribution of applicants among participating countries. Official reports from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs indicate a steady decline in the share of applicants from Tajikistan and challenge claims of mass migration of Tajik citizens to Russia under the program.

Society

Weaponizing the Past: Russian Commentators Invoke Famine in Attacks on Kazakhstan

The concept of a “besieged fortress,” adopted by the Kremlin in the second half of the 2010s, increasingly conflicts with Russia’s earlier foreign policy doctrine, under which post-Soviet states were expected to remain within Moscow’s sphere of influence. That doctrine relied on alliances across the post-Soviet space, with Central Asia often described as an area of privileged interest. By contrast, the “besieged fortress” narrative assumes encirclement by enemies and frames external communication less in diplomatic than in military terms. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, officially termed a “special military operation” by Moscow, has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s involvement in World War II, undermining earlier assumptions that some post-Soviet economies would remain dependent on Russian loans and access to the Russian market. In the integration sphere, Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov has argued that Russia is effectively “reducing its participation in the EAEU by reinstating permanent customs controls on the borders with Kazakhstan and Belarus.” Such assessments reflect growing debate within the region over the future of integration mechanisms. At the same time, segments of the Russian media space have adopted increasingly confrontational rhetoric toward Kazakhstan. In recent weeks, television host Vladimir Solovyov suggested the possibility of extending a “special military operation” to Central Asia, remarks that triggered strong reactions in Kazakhstan. Political commentator Dmitry Verkhoturov followed with statements directed specifically at Astana, invoking the sensitive historical subject of Asharshylyk, the term used in Kazakhstan for the famine of the early 1930s that followed forced collectivization under Joseph Stalin. In Ukraine, the same period is referred to as the Holodomor and is recognized there as a genocide. Kazakhstan’s official terminology does not classify the famine in those terms. Last year, the inscription on a memorial in Astana dedicated to the victims of collectivization was revised. The earlier wording referred to “victims of the Holodomor,” while the updated plaque reads “victims of the famine of 1932-1933.” The change was widely interpreted as aligning the memorial with Kazakhstan’s established historical framing. Despite this, Verkhoturov warned that further public discussion of Asharshylyk could be dangerous for Kazakhstan “from the point of view of statehood,” suggesting that such debates might escalate into armed confrontation. He also stated that Kazakhstan was “too weak and small” to oppose Russia, remarks that were widely perceived in Kazakhstan as dismissive and offensive. Particular outrage was sparked by comments contrasting Ukrainians and Kazakhs, "for us, Ukrainians are very close relatives, they are practically our own people. And yet, yes, they have brought us to a situation where we have started to fight them, while Kazakhs are not quite our own people for Russians. Yes, you can be friends with them and all that, but they are still distant people, and, as they say, they will be beaten more willingly and, it seems, more harshly than the Ukrainians," the Russian political scientist said. Kazakh political analyst Gaziz Abishev characterized the comparison as “hard-to-hide racism.” He argued that the tragedy of the famine is not exclusively a Kazakh or...

TCA Interviews

Kyrgyzstan Between the Russian World and Global Chaos: An Interview With Deputy Prime Minister Edil Baisalov

Edil Baisalov is a politician who began his career as a civil-rights activist, became a prominent member of Kyrgyzstan’s non-governmental organization (NGO) sector, and is now serving as the country’s Deputy Prime Minister. In an exclusive interview with The Times of Central Asia, he explained not only how his views have changed over the years, but also how Kyrgyzstan is seeking to find its place in what he described as a rapidly changing global landscape. In Baisalov’s assessment, the global system is facing a crisis of democracy. “The world order, as we know it, is collapsing – or at least is under attack from both within and without,” Baisalov told TCA. “The era of global hypocrisy is over, and the people of Kyrgyzstan have woken up. “What various international institutions have taught us over the years – their lectures on how to develop an economy, how to pursue nation-building, and so forth – has been proven wrong. Throughout the 1990s, Kyrgyzstan was one of the most diligent students of the liberal policies promoted by the “Chicago Boys.” We followed their instructions to the letter. Kyrgyzstan was the first post-Soviet country to join the World Trade Organization in 1998, and we were the first to receive normalized trade relations with the U.S. with the permanent repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. All of our previous governments followed IMF conditionality dictates to the letter, especially in deregulation, mass privatization, and all the austerity programs and budget sequestrations. We were promised prosperity; that the free markets and the invisible hand would take care of everything. But it did not work. “I remember it well: at the time, U.S. President Bill Clinton laughed at China, saying that Beijing needed to adopt certain policies, to liberalize, or that science could not prosper in a closed society. He claimed the Chinese model was doomed to fail, arguing that scientific and technological breakthroughs could only occur in a Western-style society with minimal state intervention. Yet today, we witness the triumphant rise of the People’s Republic of China. This is not only an emergence but also a return to the rightful place of a great civilization that has, for millennia, contributed enormously to humankind.” TCA: Does this mean you now see China, rather than the West, as a model for Kyrgyzstan to follow? Baisalov: It’s not about the Chinese model or any particular foreign template. What we understood is that as a nation, we are in competition with other nations. Just like corporations compete with each other, nations must look out for themselves. If our state does not actively develop industries and sciences, there is no formula for success. All those ideologies promoting the “invisible hand” – the idea that everything will naturally flourish on its own – are simply false. TCA: When did Kyrgyzstan stop taking orders from outside forces and begin making independent national decisions? Baisalov: We used to be naive about wanting to be liked by others. But not anymore. In the last five years of...

aigul sailybayeva

Murder of Aigul Sailybayeva: Husband Among Key Suspects in Ongoing Investigation

The death of 40-year-old Aigul Sailybayeva became publicly known approximately a year and a half ago. The former judge from Kazakhstan was 24 weeks pregnant at the time of her death. She had been living in Germany with her husband and young daughter and, according to relatives, had reduced contact with family members roughly a year before the incident. According to media reports, on June 4, 2024, Sailybayeva took her daughter to kindergarten and then disappeared. Two weeks later, volunteers discovered a suitcase containing human remains near a lake outside the town of Bensheim in the German state of Hesse. Forensic experts reported multiple stab wounds and chemical burns on the body. Case Timeline Open-source reporting indicates that on June 4, 2024, Sailybayeva dropped her child off at a kindergarten in Bensheim and subsequently stopped responding to messages and calls. Relatives in Kazakhstan reported her missing after failing to reach her. Her husband, Alexander Dontsov, reportedly was unable to clearly account for her whereabouts. On June 16, volunteers found a suitcase containing remains near a lake outside Bensheim. German authorities opened a murder investigation. Forensic findings cited stab wounds and chemical burns. Several media outlets, citing investigative sources, reported that the fatal incident may have occurred on the day of her disappearance. According to these reports, a domestic conflict allegedly took place, after which Dontsov contacted his mother, Natalya Dontsova. It has also been claimed that the couple’s daughter may have been present. These details are based on media leaks and have not been confirmed by a final court ruling. Investigators reportedly documented cleaned blood traces in the residence and seized an object believed to be a possible weapon. Media reports state that fingerprints attributed to the mother-in-law were found on it. Authorities also noted that shortly after the disappearance, Alexander Dontsov left Germany with the child for Russia, and his mother flew to Moscow the following day. By July 2024, German authorities had placed Natalya Dontsova on an international wanted list via Interpol. A criminal case was also opened in Kazakhstan under articles related to torture and violent death. The victim’s parents publicly accused their son-in-law and his mother of involvement in the killing. Through late 2024 and 2025, additional investigative details appeared in the press. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs sent inquiries to Russia regarding the suspects’ citizenship status. Russian authorities initiated checks following media reports that the Dontsovs might be in Moscow. In February 2026, journalists reported that both individuals were in Moscow. According to these reports, Alexander Dontsov works as a research fellow at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University. Natalya Dontsova also resides in Moscow and reportedly declined to testify, invoking her constitutional rights. The investigation remains ongoing. Who Was Aigul Sailybayeva Sailybayeva was a Kazakh lawyer and former judge who previously worked in Kazakhstan’s judicial system. She later lived in the United Kingdom, where she met Alexander Dontsov, and in 2020 moved to Germany with her husband and daughter....