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Opinion: What Will a New Trump Presidency Mean for Central Asia?

During his first presidency, Donald Trump introduced a foreign policy approach that recalibrated U.S. engagement with Central Asia, a region strategically critical yet overshadowed by the influence of China and Russia. Trump’s policies, targeting the collective challenge of CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), aimed to foster regional autonomy and counter external dependency. This policy shift, aimed at countering the global influence of CRINK has extended to the vital region of Central Asia. Further, it is geographically wedged between Russia and China and serves as a critical bridge for U.S. interests. The CRINK nations, in their regional strategies, have made substantial inroads in Central Asia. Additionally, each nation is pursuing influence through economic, political, or military avenues. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union, for instance, have been noted as major forces reshaping Central Asian economies as well as infrastructure. In 2013, the BRI of China was launched, which has channeled billions into roads, railways, and other infrastructure projects in Central Asia, seeking to create new trade routes connecting Asia to Europe. On the other side, Russia has promoted its Eurasian Economic Union as a trading bloc that has aimed at fostering economic integration among Central Asia and neighboring countries. These initiatives have provided economic incentives for Central Asia but also intensified its reliance on external powers, particularly China and Russia. During his presidency, Trump emphasized a CRINK-focused strategy, which prioritized Central Asia's sovereignty and reduced dependency on China and Russia. This strategy laid the groundwork for U.S. engagement in the region, influencing current policy directions. In 2020, Trump’s administration unveiled a comprehensive strategy for Central Asia, marking the first such effort in over two decades. The policy emphasized U.S. support for border security and defense collaboration, including financial aid to Tajikistan and military training for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These measures, though initiated under Trump, continue to shape current U.S. approaches to combating terrorism and fostering regional stability. For example, the U.S. has established the C5+1 initiative as a dialogue platform between the United States and the five Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). It was developed further to promote mutual goals in regional security, economic development, and environmental resilience. Security cooperation is a vital aspect of this U.S. strategy which has given the threats of terrorism and also potential instability at CRINK’s peripheries (Sciutto, 2024). In particular, Afghanistan’s proximity to Central Asia poses both risks as well as opportunities for these nations. The U.S. has provided financial support to Tajikistan to strengthen border security and counter drug trafficking. Furthermore, while also assisting Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with training and equipment to improve their defense capabilities the US has financially supported the nation. This military cooperation has aimed to prevent the encroachment of extremist groups like ISIS, which could exploit regional instability and threaten U.S. interests. Trump’s presidency emphasized private sector investments as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Although modest compared to China’s commitments, these investments reflected an effort to...

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Harnessing Diplomacy: Qosh Tepa Canal as a Bridge to U.S. Influence in Central Asia

The Center for the National Interest, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has released a report titled Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal and Water Security in Central Asia. The report outlines how U.S. support for the Qosh Tepa Canal project could provide an opportunity for the incoming Trump administration to strengthen its influence in the region. Project Overview Currently under construction in northern Afghanistan, the Qosh Tepa Canal aims to divert water from the Amu Darya River to support agriculture and economic growth. The canal will stretch 287 kilometers, with a depth of 8.5 meters and an average width of 100 meters. Once completed, it will irrigate more than 1.2 million acres of farmland and generate approximately 200,000 jobs in northern Afghanistan. While the Taliban has championed the project as a cornerstone of Afghanistan’s development, the canal poses significant challenges for downstream countries reliant on the Amu Darya, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Concerns include potential water scarcity, environmental degradation, and heightened regional tensions. Implications for Central Asia The report highlights that the canal could exacerbate existing disputes over water allocation in a region already plagued by scarcity. Unlike its Central Asian neighbors, Afghanistan is excluded from water-sharing agreements rooted in the Soviet era. The poorly designed Soviet canals along the Amu Darya continue to undermine water security in the region decades after their construction, a fate experts hope to avoid with Qosh Tepa. Recommendations for U.S. Engagement The report urges the United States to seize this opportunity to engage Afghanistan and the broader region diplomatically and technically: 1. Support for a Well-Engineered Canal The United States should advocate for a well designed canal that prioritizes water-use efficiency. By offering technical assistance and backing the project in principle, the U.S. could pave the way for multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank, to provide financial and technical support. 2. Promote Regional Water Diplomacy Washington should encourage negotiations for a regional water-sharing agreement among Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 3. Assist Downstream States Additional investments in modernizing irrigation systems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could mitigate the canal's impact on downstream water availability. Strategic Context The report underscores the geostrategic importance of Afghanistan and Central Asia, which border three of Washington’s primary global competitors: China, Russia, and Iran. By supporting the Qosh Tepa Canal project and fostering regional water-sharing cooperation, the U.S. could counterbalance the growing influence of Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran in the region. A Watershed Moment As construction progresses into its second phase, involving thousands of workers and heavy machinery, the Qosh Tepa Canal stands at the nexus of development and diplomacy. The report concludes that U.S. involvement in this critical project could serve not only to address Central Asia’s pressing water security challenges but also to reinforce Washington’s strategic position in one of the world’s most complex geopolitical arenas.

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Kazakhstan’s Middle Power Strategy Captures U.S. Focus in Trump-Tokayev Talks

On December 5, a telephone conversation took place between Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. According to Akorda, the official residence of the Kazakh president, Tokayev congratulated Trump on his election and both leaders expressed a commitment to strengthening their strategic partnership in trade, investment, and nuclear non-proliferation. They also agreed to maintain regular contact to sustain the momentum of bilateral cooperation. Kazakhstan as a Mediator This brief but significant interaction has fueled speculation that Trump may view Kazakhstan as a potential mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. International expert Arkady Dubnov has suggested that Astana could become a platform for dialogue involving Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky, or other high level representatives. This aligns with Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts to promote mediation and its firm belief that the ongoing conflict can only be resolved at the negotiating table. Tokayev and the Role of Middle Powers Under Tokayev’s leadership, Kazakhstan has consolidated its status as a “Middle Power.” The term gained prominence in May during Tokayev’s Singapore Lecture, part of a prestigious series organized by the Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). In his speech, “Kazakhstan and the Role of Middle Powers: Promoting Security, Stability, and Sustainable Development,” Tokayev emphasized the risks of global polarization and the need for middle powers to act against a new Cold War. Tokayev revisited this concept in an article for the French newspaper Figaro, highlighting the growing influence of middle powers amidst the deadlock faced by global superpowers, such as the United States and China. Tokayev wrote, “The economic and political importance of these countries is growing, and their balanced and constructive position is becoming an advantage in the face of global uncertainty.” At the Astana Think Tank Forum in October, Tokayev reiterated this idea, calling for the reform of the UN Security Council to amplify the voices of regional and middle powers. “The Security Council is in a deadlock, and we need to find a way out,” Tokayev stated. Trump's Strategy Trump’s outreach to Tokayev appears to validate these concepts. Following his election, Trump has engaged with the leaders of regional and middle powers, including India, Israel, Canada, and South Korea, signaling a possible strategy to build a coalition of such nations for his proposed reforms to the global security architecture. Kazakhstan's balanced and constructive foreign policy, combined with its emphasis on multilateralism, positions it as an effective interlocutor in global conflicts. Tokayev’s vision of middle powers as mediators may prove instrumental in shaping a more inclusive and cooperative international order.

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Justice for Veterans: U.S. Acknowledges Cancer Cases Tied to Service at Uzbekistan’s K2 Base

Thousands of American veterans who served at Uzbekistan’s K2 airbase have reported rare cancers and diseases - but only now, more than two decades later, is the U.S. government taking steps to address their dire situation. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has announced plans to include bladder, urinary tract, and genitourinary cancers as conditions presumed to be linked to service at Uzbekistan’s Karshi-Khanabad airbase, known as K2. In 2001, the U.S. military moved into K2, a former Soviet airbase, to support a series of operations named “Enduring Freedom” which were purportedly aimed at tackling terrorism and Al-Qaeda in the wake of 9/11. However, in addition to the threat of terrorism, the troops faced another danger: the toxic environment. Reports from the base describe exposure to chemicals and radioactive materials. Soldiers recalled an underground “black bubble,” glowing lakes, and a chemical odor lingering in the air. [caption id="attachment_26149" align="aligncenter" width="634"] Image: Stronghold Freedom Foundation[/caption] The Karshi-Khanabad airbase was heavily used by the Soviet military during its operations in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, when it served as a site for producing, storing, and testing various weapons, including chemical weapons. The base also stored fuel, solvents, and other harmful substances. Additionally, it became a dumping ground for toxic waste, asbestos, enriched uranium, and other hazardous materials. Spills of these substances were frequent, leaving lasting environmental damage. Before the U.S. occupied K2, the destruction of Soviet-era missiles left some soil contaminated with low-level radioactive depleted uranium. The destruction of Soviet missiles was part of disarmament obligations under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. A 2001 survey found traces that could be harmful if inhaled, and a 2002 assessment confirmed small amounts of uranium, identified as non-U.S. depleted uranium, outside Camp Stronghold Freedom’s perimeter. The affected area was covered with clean soil, fenced off, and marked as off-limits in November 2001. Furthermore, approximately 392 chemical compounds were found at the K2 Air Base. Thousands of military personnel who served in K2 suffered from severe illnesses, including rare forms of cancer, associated with their time at the base. However, over the years, the U.S. government and the VA have delayed recognition of the link between service in K2 and these health issues, leaving many veterans without adequate support. [caption id="attachment_26150" align="aligncenter" width="1140"] Image: Stronghold Freedom Foundation[/caption] According to the Stronghold Freedom Foundation, K2 veterans are 500% more likely to get cancer than other veterans - 75% of U.S. service members deployed to Uzbekistan alone have developed at least one type of K2-related illness. On November 11, President Joe Biden announced an expansion of the PACT Act (Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics Act), a law he signed in August 2022 to improve healthcare for veterans exposed to toxins. President Biden stated that the act has already helped over a million veterans and their families access benefits. Under new efforts, the VA will add bladder cancer, ureter cancer, multiple myeloma, and certain types of leukemia to the list of presumptive conditions. This expansion applies...

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Repeal of Jackson-Vanik Amendment for Kazakhstan Discussed in Washington

On November 19, the U.S. Congress hosted a discussion on repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment as it pertains to Kazakhstan. The event brought together members of Congress, officials from the U.S. State Department, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, Yerzhan Ashikbaev, and representatives from business and expert communities. A Cold War-era provision, the Jackson-Vanik Amendment to the 1974 Trade Act denied the U.S. normal trade relations with non-market economies — primarily countries in the former Soviet bloc — that restricted emigration for Jewish and other minority populations or violated human rights. In his opening remarks, Ambassador Ashikbaev underscored the importance of repealing the amendment for Kazakhstan, highlighting the country’s transformation into a regional leader in attracting foreign investment and promoting stability in Central Asia. “Over the past 30 years, Kazakhstan has emerged as the second-largest economy in the post-Soviet space, accounting for two-thirds of Central Asia’s GDP. The repeal of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment and the establishment of Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Kazakhstan is a strategic move that will strengthen ties between Kazakhstan and the U.S., providing stability and predictability for American investors,” the ambassador stated. Congressman Tom Suozzi commended Kazakhstan for its efforts to promote religious freedom and the rule of law. He also emphasized that the U.S. recognizes Kazakhstan’s geopolitical challenges and the critical role of strengthening economic security in the region for mutual prosperity. Senator Chris Murphy stressed the strategic importance of Central Asia in U.S. foreign policy. He argued that repealing the amendment would signal Washington’s serious commitment to the region. While the amendment's sanctions were effective in the past, Murphy noted they are now irrelevant to Kazakhstan, which fully complies with international norms. Senator Steve Daines, co-chair of the Senate Central Asia Caucus, reflected on his visit to Kazakhstan in March. He described the establishment of the caucus following his trip and assured participants of his ongoing efforts to achieve Permanent Normal Trade Relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan. Eric Rudenshiold, Senior Fellow at the Caspian Political Center and former National Security Council official, also emphasized the need for repeal. He noted that this step should have been taken earlier, given Kazakhstan’s significant political and economic progress over 33 years of independence. He described the repeal as both justified and timely. Participants in the discussion concluded that, given Kazakhstan’s successful economic reforms and its adherence to market economy principles, the Jackson-Vanik Amendment is no longer relevant.

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Strategic Partnership Dialogue: U.S. Allocates $500,000 for Registan Square Preservation

On November 13, the latest meeting of the U.S.-Uzbekistan Strategic Partnership Dialogue took place in Washington, D.C. Key participants included U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Donald Lu, Uzbekistan's Deputy Foreign Minister, Muzaffar Madrahimov, and the ambassadors of both countries. The delegations discussed the expanding partnership between Uzbekistan and the United States, focusing on economic development, human rights, security, and cultural ties. The United States reaffirmed its steadfast support for Uzbekistan’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. At the meeting, both sides emphasized the importance of maintaining close consultations and celebrated new areas of collaboration. Notable progress was highlighted in critical minerals production and efforts to modernize Uzbekistan’s natural gas infrastructure. This follows the signing of a Critical Minerals Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in September and Uzbekistan’s entry into the Minerals Security Partnership. The delegations also underscored their commitment to diversifying trade and investment, advancing agricultural reforms in Uzbekistan, empowering women economically, addressing the climate crisis, and supporting the transition to clean energy. The United States commended Uzbekistan for adopting USAID-supported English language textbooks and teachers' manuals for public schools. Efforts to expand sustainable economic opportunities for women in Uzbekistan were similarly praised. Both nations highlighted the strength of their cultural ties, with the U.S. expressing gratitude for Uzbekistan’s leadership in archaeology and cultural preservation. As part of these efforts, the U.S. State Department announced a $500,000 allocation from the U.S. Ambassador's Fund for the Preservation of Cultural Heritage. The funding will support conservation efforts at Registan Square, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Samarkand.