On July 16 the World Bank released its latest Tajikistan Economic Update. Tajikistan’s economy has shown remarkable growth in recent years, with an impressive expansion of 8.3% in 2023 and 8.2% in early 2024.
The report attributes the growth to increased revenues from gold exports, substantial public infrastructure spending, robust migrant worker remittances, and public wage increases.
The report highlights that Tajikistan has managed to control inflation through declining global food and fuel prices and a tighter monetary policy.
However, the report says that Tajikistan’s economic outlook faces several challenges. Subdued economic growth is projected at 6.5% in 2024 and 4.5% in the medium term, reflecting sluggish growth in the country’s key trading partners: China, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkey.
The report says that potential risks to Tajikistan’s economic outlook include escalation of global and regional tensions, and stricter migration policies in Russia. It cautions that for Tajikistan to ensure sustainable development, it needs to implement structural reforms focused on enhancing economic openness and competitive neutrality and improving public sector governance, transparency, and accountability for better public service delivery.
Ozan Sevimli, World Bank Group Country Manager for Tajikistan, commented: “Tajikistan’s recent economic performance is commendable, but sustaining this momentum will require concerted efforts to address structural challenges to ensure competition among all economic players. Embracing fair competition and competitive neutrality between state-owned enterprises and the private sector is vital for fostering innovation, driving efficiency, and ensuring that all players can thrive on a level playing field, ultimately benefiting the economy and society.”
