China’s rapid transition to clean energy is beginning to reshape global energy markets, with significant implications for Central Asia. While the shift poses challenges for major natural gas exporters such as Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, it may create new opportunities for Uzbekistan, according to a recent analysis by Eurasianet.
A report by BloombergNEF, titled Energy Transition Supply Chains 2025, highlights China’s dominant position in clean energy manufacturing. The country controls over 70% of global production in sectors such as solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries, falling short only in the area of hydrogen electrolyzers.
China is also leading in investment. In 2024, mainland China accounted for 76% of global spending on clean-tech manufacturing facilities. This robust industrial base aligns with the country’s surging domestic clean energy usage. Currently, renewables meet approximately 80% of the nation’s growing electricity demand.
Think tank Ember projects that China will have over 2,460 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity by 2030, twice the 2022 figure, with the bulk coming from solar power.
Although fossil fuels still supply about 62% of China’s energy mix, this proportion is expected to decline as economic growth slows, renewable capacity expands, and the country pursues its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.
These trends are already affecting regional energy dynamics. China’s softening demand for natural gas may explain the lack of progress on a Russian proposal to increase gas deliveries via Kazakhstan, as well as ongoing delays in the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project.
Turkmenistan appears to be recalibrating its strategy, recently agreeing to export gas to Turkey, possibly reflecting a reassessment of future Chinese demand.
Meanwhile, trade tensions between China and the West have led to a surplus of Chinese-manufactured solar panels and other clean energy technologies. As developed nations impose tariffs, Chinese firms are increasingly targeting developing markets.
This could benefit Uzbekistan, which is actively expanding its renewable energy infrastructure. With surplus Chinese equipment likely becoming more affordable, Uzbekistan may gain access to low-cost clean energy technologies in the near future.
Ilyas Otan
