Astana Talks - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan Offers Neutral Ground for Peace Talks, Says Deputy Minister Vassilenko

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Roman Vassilenko, has expressed hope for ending global conflicts, reiterating Kazakhstan's readiness to provide a platform for dialogue. Vasilenko made the remarks at the World Policy Conference held in Abu Dhabi. “I am an optimist by nature and hope that wars will stop. This applies to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,” Vasilenko said in an interview. The Deputy Minister underscored Kazakhstan’s neutral stance, highlighting the country’s balanced diplomatic relations with Russia and Western nations. “We hope that by the end of this year or possibly next year, Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a peace treaty. We have offered to host this event in Kazakhstan,” Vasilenko stated. Vasilenko also emphasized the European Union's significance in Kazakhstan’s economic development and international partnerships. “The EU is our largest trade partner and investor. It is the largest market for Kazakhstani oil and a vital source of technology and investment. We are collaborating with the EU to develop the Middle Corridor, a trade route connecting Central Asia with Europe via the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus. Progress has already been made. For instance, over the next three years, we aim to quadruple the volume of cargo transported along this route,” he noted. Kazakhstan continues to position itself as a bridge between dialogue and cooperation, leveraging its strategic geographic location and balanced foreign policy.

Russia Syria Extremism reintegration of returnees from Iraq and Syria Regional Security International Relations Global Diplomacy Astana Talks Reintegration

Central Asia Braces for Return of Radical Islamists Amid Syrian Turmoil

According to experts, the recent collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria raises concerns about potential destabilization in Central Asia. This development may force regional governments to repatriate citizens who were lured by Islamist propaganda, while the future of the Astana format negotiations on Syria remains uncertain. The swift coup d'état in Syria saw opposition forces capture Damascus and much of the country within days. Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, leaving a chaotic landscape dominated by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, often described as a successor to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The situation has plunged Syria into further instability. The Impact of Operation Zhusan Kazakhstan has firsthand experience dealing with the repercussions of Syria's instability. Between 2013 and 2017, hundreds of Kazakh citizens succumbed to Islamist propaganda, crossing borders illegally to join the conflict, often with their families. In response to the humanitarian crisis, Kazakhstan launched Operation Zhusan ("Wormwood") in January 2019 to repatriate citizens trapped in Syria. The operation, conducted in five stages and completed by February 2021, repatriated 607 citizens, 37 men, 157 women and 413 children (34 of whom were orphans). The government set up a rehabilitation center near Aktau on the Caspian Sea to provide treatment, restore documents, and offer vocational training for adults and education for children. All 37 repatriated men were detained and later convicted of terrorism-related activities, receiving sentences ranging between 6 and 14 years, whilst 18 women faced prosecution. Despite the operation’s success, many in Kazakhstan fear the returnees and their children might spread radical ideologies within the country. Lessons from the Region Other Central Asian countries have also grappled with the challenge of repatriating citizens from Syria. Bakhtiyor Babadjanov, an expert from the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under Uzbekistan’s president, detailed the experiences of Uzbek women lured to conflict zones. These women often found themselves deceived and abandoned in dire conditions, as described in an interview. "The 'happy caliphate' turned out to be a myth," Babadjanov explained, recounting stories of women and children abandoned without food or shelter during battles in Mosul. Survivors reported forced marriages, child abuse, and exploitation under the guise of religious duty. The Uncertain Future of the Astana Process Another significant connection between Central Asia and Syria has been the Astana process, a series of negotiations aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict. Since 2017, Kazakhstan has hosted 22 rounds of talks, including discussions on hostages, missing persons, and settlement efforts. However, the recent escalation in Syria casts doubt on the process. In late November and early December, armed opposition groups launched a large-scale offensive, capturing key cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Despite this upheaval, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the Astana process remains relevant as a platform for dialogue and consultation, notwithstanding the fact that Assad is now in Moscow. Heightened Risks of Destabilization Experts in Kazakhstan and Central Asia have warned that the fall of Assad's regime could lead to prolonged anarchy, ethnic and religious conflicts, and a refugee crisis. Political scientist,...

Astana Talks Mediation War Syria Iran Turkey Russia

New Fighting in Syria Throws Astana Talks Off Track

It’s called the Astana process: a long-running series of talks hosted by Kazakhstan whose stated aim is to deliver peace to conflict-torn Syria. Some Syrian opposition figures and other critics, however, have said the “guarantor” countries of the process – Iran, Russia and Türkiye – use it to promote their own political and military interests in the region. The dialogue named after the Kazakh capital, which marked its 22nd round in Astana on Nov. 11-12, was undercut on Nov. 27 when Syrian rebels launched a surprise attack against government forces and seized most of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, within days. The stunning operation, which reignited the civil war that began in 2011, followed several years of relative quiet during which Syria was divided into areas of factional control and foreign influence. Iran, Russia and Türkiye are talking about the Astana process as a way out of the current chaos. Visiting Türkiye on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the negotiations format must be “preserved” and that the foreign ministers of the guarantor countries would meet soon to discuss Syria, according to Iranian state media. Multiple media reports say the meeting could take place not in Astana, but on the sidelines of a forum in Doha, Qatar on Dec. 7-8. “All agreed: NO ONE benefits from another war in Syria,” Araghchi said on the X platform. Russia, which along with Iran supports Syrian President Bashar Assad and uses its military presence there to project power in the region and beyond, has also referred to the Astana framework as a way to stabilize the situation. At the same time, Russian jets have conducted bombing runs in response to the rebel offensive, and Iran says it would consider any Syrian government request to send troops. Türkiye, on the other hand, has backed some Syrian rebel groups and blames the resurgence of fighting on Assad’s failure to engage with the opposition. Türkiye, which hosts several million Syrian refugees on its territory, has sent its own military into northern Syria and seeks to counter an autonomous Kurdish area in the northeast of the country. The talks in Astana, which is perceived as a neutral venue, started in 2017 and have included the Syrian government and some Syrian opposition groups. There is also United Nations representation. Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have participated as observers. The United States initially took part as an observer, but dropped out several years ago, favoring a U.N.-backed peace process in Geneva. The Astana track provided for so-called deescalation zones, though the Syrian government violated the agreement and seized some of those areas, squeezing rebels and civilians into a smaller area along the Turkish border. While important to reconciliation efforts, the Astana dialogue “has been heavily influenced by the interests and positions” of the sponsoring countries – Iran, Russia and Türkiye, author Zenonas Tziarras wrote in an analysis published in 2022 by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, a non-profit group. “As the scope of the process became wider, encompassing political and...

Astana Talks Mediation Russia Politics Ukraine Astana Diplomacy International Diplomacy Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs Russia's War Ukraine War Trump negotiations

Trump’s Bid for Ukraine-Russia Peace: Could Kazakhstan Be the Key Mediator?

One of the anticipated top priorities of Donald Trump’s presidency is ending Russia's war in Ukraine while normalizing relations with Moscow. Writing on his Truth Social channel, Trump stated that, “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” Trump’s nominee to serve as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, 80-year-old former national security advisor, General Keith Kellogg, laid out his plan in writing for the America First policy institute, whilst focusing on characterizing the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies [which] has entangled America in an endless war.” There are fears, however, that Kellogg’s proposal to reach a ceasefire by freezing the frontlines and forcing both sides the negotiating table will lead to a tumultuously violent period as Moscow seeks to swallow up territory. Meanwhile, NATO’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, has warned that compelling Ukraine into a “bad peace” would pose a “dire threat” to the U.S. itself. Whilst the framework for bringing a pause to hostilities is becoming clearer, it appears that Trump (or his representative) will need to meet with Vladimir Putin, and Kazakhstan has emerged as a potential venue for this high-stakes meeting. Kazakhstan's Role as Mediator Russian political analyst, Arkady Dubnov, has argued that Putin’s recent state visit to Astana may be an indication that Kazakhstan could play a pivotal role, and that given Putin’s limited travel options due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him, Kazakhstan, with its reputation for diplomacy, would be a logical choice. “Putin is essentially restricted from visiting most of the Western Hemisphere,” Dubnov explained. “This leaves the Eurasian East, and among its cities, Astana stands out. Kazakhstan has hosted OSCE and CICA summits, mediated in the Syrian conflict, and facilitated peace talks over the future of the South Caucasus.” Dubnov sees Putin’s visit to Astana as indirectly tied to a possible meeting with Trump. “The Kremlin trusts Kazakhstan as an ally while respecting its constructive relations with the U.S. and the broader West,” he stated. Kazakhstan has long been recognized as a neutral ground where East and West can find commonality. The Astana process on Syria, initiated in 2017, helped prevent the escalation of hostilities for years, whilst Kazakhstan has mediated in other long-standing disputes, such as the conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijan. Given this history, it is conceivable that a reconciliation process between Russia and Ukraine could start in Astana. Neither the Minsk agreements of 2014, nor discussions in Istanbul in 2022 achieved lasting peace, but Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts could provide fresh impetus. Early Peace Efforts In March 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized the urgency of negotiations to bring a halt to hostilities, a stance that has since gained momentum as the war drags on. By 2024, the validity of Tokayev’s view — that negotiations are the only viable path to end the bloodshed — has become increasingly apparent. Kazakhstan’s diplomatic corps has actively pushed for peace....