Is Beijing’s Educational Diplomacy Turning the Dial on Central Asian Public Opinion?
OSH, KYRGYZSTAN – On the eastern bank of the Ak-Buura River, a mini-Chinatown is developing. At Osh’s old bus station, buses and taxis hawk their services to Kashgar, 300 kilometers away over the Pamir Mountains in China’s Xinjiang Province. Blue-plated SUVs stand by the roadside, sporting the 新 character that also symbolizes their origin in Xinjiang. At the Kelechek Bazaar, hordes of money changers shout the best rates for Dollars, Uzbek Som, and Chinese Yuan. Tucked away from the mêlée behind the Peking Hotel is the five-story Confucius Institute. “The Chinese language is in huge demand right now,” said Ali, a student who has moved to Osh from nearby Uzbekistan to study here. He believes the move will be good for his career. “It’s the best opportunity for anyone in this region,” he told The Times of Central Asia, before enthusing about his plans to study in China next year. [caption id="attachment_30054" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] The Confucius Institute in Osh, Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] “There’s a strong possibility that the younger generation will have a more positive view towards China,” Yunis Sharifli, a non-resident fellow at the China Global South Project told TCA. “This is good for China-Central Asia relations because we know that in the past, anti-China sentiments have hindered cooperation.” Chinese diplomats often refer to win-win diplomacy, where engagement between states can lead to positive outcomes for both sides. This is viewed with understandable cynicism by those who see Beijing’s diplomacy as entirely self-interested, but when it comes to education, even if we avoid the term win-win, the opportunities that it offers young Central Asians are hard to deny. In return, China hopes to create a network of influence and goodwill from people like Ali. Nevertheless, the jury is out on whether it is working. [caption id="attachment_30053" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] China-plated cars are an increasingly common sight in Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Swelling numbers Given that numerous questions have been asked about the accuracy of China’s own population data, monitoring the number of foreign students in the country can be a fiendish task. The consensus is that the numbers are increasing. Chinese state media outlet Xinhua claimed that student numbers grew from 11,930 to 29,885 between 2010 and 2018, and have recovered since the pandemic. One recent report put the number of Kazakh students alone at “approaching 20,000”. These numbers are unlikely to dethrone Russia as the top destination for Central Asian students any time soon. Moscow claimed in 2023 that 168,000 Central Asians were studying in the country, with around a third of them being funded by the Russian government. However, Sharifli believes that Russia’s luster is beginning to wane. “Moscow State University has historically been very attractive for Central Asian people, particularly in the social science or the technical fields,” said Sharifli. “But since the war [in Ukraine] began there has been a lot of discrimination against Central Asians in Russia.” This was demonstrated in a recent account given to The Times of Central Asia by...