Despite High Water Levels in Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Reservoir, Electricity Shortages Persist

Despite an increase in water levels at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul hydroelectric power plant (HPP) reservoir this year, the country continues to face electricity shortages, Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev said in an interview with Birinchi Radio. Located on the Naryn River, the Toktogul HPP is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power plant, providing around 40% of the country’s electricity. As of October 1, 2024, the water volume in the Toktogul reservoir reached 13.033 billion cubic meters, approximately 1.3 billion cubic meters more than the previous year. The reservoir currently receives 365 cubic meters of water per second while releasing 284 cubic meters per second for power generation. "Despite the increased water levels in 2024, we are still facing an electricity deficit of about 3.9 billion kilowatt-hours," Minister Ibrayev stated. To address the deficit, Kyrgyzstan is working to expand its energy capacity by building small and large hydroelectric plants. "In the past, small hydroelectric plants produced around 200-300 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. This figure has now increased to 750 million kilowatt-hours," Ibrayev explained. He also noted that the country’s electricity consumption has risen by 400 million kilowatt-hours this year, driven by the launch of new industrial enterprises. According to the National Statistics Committee, Kyrgyzstan generated 13.8 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2023, with hydropower plants accounting for approximately 87% of total electricity production. In 2023, Kyrgyzstan met 80% of its electricity demand, which totalled 17.2 billion kilowatt-hours. The remaining 20%, or 3.4 billion kilowatt-hours, was imported. To help reduce reliance on imports, an agreement was signed between Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan in May 2023 for the supply of 1.7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity from Turkmenistan, starting on January 1, 2025.

The Geopolitical Battle for Kazakhstan’s First Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear power plants currently operate in only 32 countries in the world. Kazakhstan seems poised to join their ranks in the near future; but what does this shift mean for the energy-rich Central Asian nation? Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan has been a strong advocate for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Astana not only eliminated its nuclear arsenal, which was one of the largest in the world at the time, but also closed the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, where the Soviet Union conducted more than 450 nuclear tests over 40 years. Thousands of people in Kazakhstan experienced birth defects and cancer linked to nuclear testing. This history makes the construction of a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet republic a particularly sensitive issue. Nevertheless, a majority of the population in Kazakhstan is expected to support building a nuclear facility in the national referendum scheduled for October 6. But what comes after the vote? If the citizens of Kazakhstan approve the government’s plans to go nuclear, the country might get its first nuclear power plant no earlier than 2035. In the meantime, Astana will have to find a strategic partner to participate in the development of the facility. Building and operation a nuclear power plant requires advanced technology, engineering expertise, and rigorous safety standards – areas where Kazakhstan currently lacks experience. “As a result, the country will likely need to rely on international partners to design, build, and possibly even operate its first nuclear power plant,” said James Walker, CEO and Head of Reactor Development at NANO Nuclear Energy, in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. Although most policymakers in Kazakhstan would like Western companies to build a nuclear power plant in Ulken, on the western shore of Lake Balkhash, at this point the Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom seems to have the best chance of playing a key role in the project. In Walker’s view, Russia has a long history of cooperation with Kazakhstan in the nuclear sector and could be a logical partner, especially given its extensive experience in building and operating nuclear power plants in other countries. “Rosatom has been actively involved in Kazakhstan’s nuclear sector for years, including uranium mining and nuclear fuel cycle activities. This established presence, coupled with Russia’s geopolitical influence in Central Asia, makes Rosatom a strong contender,” stressed the CEO of NANO Nuclear Energy, pointing out that Chinese corporations are also very interested in the potential construction of the first Kazakh nuclear power plant. Indeed, according to reports, the China National Nuclear Corporation offered to build a 1.2 GW nuclear power plant unit in Kazakhstan for $2.8 billion, with the construction taking five years. Another candidate for the project is South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation. The largest electric utility in the East Asian nation reportedly proposed building a water-cooled power reactor –using water as a coolant to transfer heat away from the core. Walker, however, argues that while South Korea has a competitive edge...