Energy Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asian Countries and World Bank Discuss Progress on Kambarata-1 Hydropower Project

On January 27, Tashkent hosted a roundtable discussion on advancing the construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), an ambitious regional initiative being jointly undertaken by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The project aims to enhance regional cooperation in Central Asia regarding water and energy resource management. The meeting was attended by Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Energy Taalaibek Ibrayev, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Energy Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Energy Sungat Yesimkhanov, and the World Bank Regional Director for Central Asia Tatiana Proskuryakova. The Kambarata-1 HPP, with a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and an average annual electricity generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, will be constructed at an estimated cost exceeding $4 billion. It is planned to be located in the upper reaches of the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. Upon completion, it will become the largest hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan and is expected to address the country's chronic electricity shortages. At the meeting, ministers from the three participating countries requested the World Bank’s assistance in preparing and financing the Kambarata-1 HPP construction. Kyrgyzstan's Ibrayev described the project as "the project of the century" for Kyrgyzstan, emphasizing its potential to strengthen regional cooperation and foster long-term development across Central Asia. “Today's roundtable in Tashkent continues a series of meetings that took place in Vienna, Brussels, and Washington in 2024. These events help coordinate and accelerate the project’s implementation, as well as attract the necessary international support,” Ibrayev stated. From Kazakhstan’s side, Yesimkhanov highlighted the meeting as another step forward in strengthening regional cooperation in the water and energy sectors. He expressed confidence that the project would bolster good relations among Central Asian nations. Uzbek representative Mirzamakhmudov reiterated his country’s commitment to the project, underscoring its strategic importance for the region. "The project will bring significant benefits to all Central Asian countries by strengthening regional energy security, accelerating the transition to a green economy, and improving the use of water resources," he said. Currently, Kyrgyzstan, with the World Bank’s technical support, is revising the project’s feasibility study. This includes assessing the technical, economic, financial, environmental, and social dimensions of the Kambarata-1 HPP. World Bank Regional Director Proskuryakova reaffirmed the institution’s readiness to support the three governments in their efforts to ensure a stable energy future for the region. “We will continue to provide technical assistance in the implementation of the Kambarata-1 HPP construction project. Together with other international development partners, we are working to attract the financing necessary to implement the project,” she said. Ibrayev has previously stated that all preparatory stages of the project are scheduled for completion by May 2025. In September 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers and the World Bank organized a roundtable to discuss dam selection for the Kambarata-1 HPP. The Swiss engineering firm AFRY proposed several options, and Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed that the feasibility study will be finalized based on the chosen dam design by May 2025.

Export/Import Economy Legislation Oil and Gas Oil refinery gasoline price Energy Security Gasoline Prices

Kazakhstan Ends Era of Cheap Fuel: Price Controls Set for Abolition

On January 17, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan published a number of draft orders on the Open NLA (normative legal acts) portal, which were to be discussed within five days. In total, the Ministry proposed the abolition of eleven orders regulating wholesale and retail prices for petroleum products, which have been under price control since 2014. In addition, it intends to change the calculation formulas and price ceilings for wholesale and retail sales of liquefied and natural gas. I have been writing about the need for price liberalization since 2018, as seen in articles such as “#Kazneft, part 2: The Bermuda Gasoline Triangle - Why Prices Will Rise” and “#Kazneft, part 4: We Rank Seventh in the World for the Cheapest Gasoline. Is It Sold at a Loss?” This is a landmark event for the Government of Kazakhstan, which has long maintained not only the lowest fuel prices in the region but some of the lowest globally. The country consistently ranks among the top ten nations with the cheapest energy resources, including fuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Cheap and Even Cheaper According to Global Petrol Prices, as of January 20, 2025, fuel prices per liter in dollar terms across the EAEU, CIS, and neighboring countries are as follows: (Table 1) Country RON-95 Diesel Turkmenistan 0,43 0,29 Kazakhstan 0,47 0,55 Russia 0,61 0,71 Azerbaijan 0,65 0,59 Belorussia 0,75 0,75 Kyrgyzstan 0,81 0,81 Afghanistan 0,83 0,83 Uzbekistan 0,99 0,95 Georgia 1,09 1,06 China 1,15 1,02 Ukraine 1,39 1,37 Mongolia 1,49 1,19 Kazakhstan ranks seventh globally for the affordability of RON-95 gasoline, trailing behind Angola, Egypt, Algeria, Kuwait, Turkmenistan, and Malaysia. At the same time, there are “throwaway” prices in Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, but these price indicators do not reflect the actual availability of fuel in these countries. Turkmenistan also shows relatively low fuel prices, primarily due to the use of alternative fuels, such as methane, in transportation. Kazakhstan has historically had nearly double the price gap compared to its neighboring countries, which has facilitated the shadow export of fuel despite an official ban on exporting petroleum products. A Leaky Bucket I have described Kazakhstan's domestic fuel market as a "leaky bucket"— no matter how much fuel is produced, it is constantly in short supply. In 2024, the country processed about 18 million tons of oil, with its three major refineries — Atyrau: 99% owned by the national company KazMunayGas (KMG), Shymkent: 51% owned by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and 49% by KMG, and Pavlodar: 100% KMG — accounting for approximately 17 million tons. Mini-refineries produced an additional one million tons. The production of petroleum products (excluding fuel oil) amounted to around 14.5 million tons. The balance of petroleum products for 2025 is as follows, million tons: (Table 2) Product Production in the Republic of Kazakhstan Import from Russia Import to production, % RON-92, RON-95, RON-98 5,0 0,29 6 % Diesel fuel 5,1 0,45 9 % Jet fuel 0,75 0,3 40 % Bitumen/tar 1,1 0,50 45 % For 2025,...

China Renewable energy Solar Energy Green Energy renewable energy sources Energy Security

Kyrgyzstan Begins Construction of a New Solar Power Plant

Kyrgyzstan has launched the construction of a new solar power plant in the Kemin district of the Chui region, approximately 100 kilometers east of the capital, Bishkek. The plant will have a capacity of 100 MW and is expected to generate 155 million kWh of electricity annually. According to the government, this will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 140,000 tons and coal consumption by 50,000 tons per year. At the January 21 groundbreaking ceremony, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev described the project as a significant step toward achieving Kyrgyzstan’s energy independence and advancing sustainable development. Acknowledging that the country still heavily relies on its Soviet-era hydroelectric power plants for electricity generation, Kasymaliev emphasized Kyrgyzstan’s commitment to adopting modern and environmentally friendly energy solutions. Kasymaliev also highlighted the country’s growing energy demands, noting that Kyrgyzstan’s population now exceeds 7 million and new large-scale industrial enterprises are being established. He expressed optimism that the new solar power plant would help alleviate electricity shortages, which remain a pressing issue, especially during the winter months. The chairman extended his gratitude to Chinese partners and investors, particularly those from Shaanxi Province, for their support and contributions to the project. Kyrgyzstan is actively addressing its energy challenges by investing in a diversified mix of renewable energy initiatives, including solar and wind farms, as well as large hydroelectric power projects.

Energy Security Nuclear power Nuclear Energy Atomic Energy

Kazakhstan Completes International Visits Ahead of Nuclear Power Plant Construction

Kazakhstan has completed a series of international visits to evaluate technologies for its planned nuclear power plant (NPP). On January 21, 2025, a Kazakh delegation led by Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev visited Russia to assess the operations of Generation 3+ nuclear power units at the Leningrad NPP. During the visit, the delegation examined key components of the plant, including its control systems, turbine hall, laboratory facilities, and cooling system. Particular focus was placed on the VVER-1200 reactor, the flagship project of Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom. This visit marked the final stage of Kazakhstan’s review process of potential suppliers for the NPP. From October to December 2024, Kazakh specialists also visited South Korea, France, and China. As a result, the final list of candidate suppliers includes Russian Rosatom, Korean KHNP, Chinese CNNC, and French EDF. While in Russia, the Kazakh delegation also consulted with Leningrad NPP management and visited the satellite town of Sosnovy Bor, a scientific and engineering innovation hub. The Leningrad NPP is Russia’s largest by installed capacity and features two types of reactors: uranium-graphite RBMK and water-water VVER. “We have completed a series of working visits dedicated to studying advanced nuclear power technologies. Familiarization with the operation of Leningrad NPP allowed us to study in detail the key aspects of operation, the safety of the plant, and its impact on the environment,” Energy Minister Satkaliyev stated. The final decision on the supplier or consortium to construct the NPP will be made in 2025. This decision will take into account Kazakhstan’s national interests, its international obligations, and recommendations from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant is set to be built in the village of Ulken on the shores of Lake Balkhash. The project is intended to address the country’s growing power shortages and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Potential partners from China, Russia, South Korea, and France are being considered, and the project is expected to be financed through foreign loans.

Energy Security gasoline price Motor fuel Economic Reforms

Kazakhstan Plans to End State Regulation of Fuel Prices

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy is considering the phased liberalization of gasoline and diesel fuel prices as part of a broader reform aimed at addressing price disparities with neighboring countries and curbing illegal fuel exports. The proposed changes have been outlined in a draft document published on the Open NAP portal. The reform would gradually shift fuel pricing from state regulation to a market-based system. Since May 2024, Kazakhstan has implemented a differentiated pricing mechanism, but the Ministry of Energy acknowledges that state regulation has made Kazakhstan the country with the lowest fuel prices in the region. This disparity has incentivized “gray” fuel exports - illegal cross-border sales - and contributed to domestic shortages of petroleum products. Currently, a liter of AI-92 gasoline in Kazakhstan costs 205 KZT ($0.39), significantly cheaper than in neighboring countries: Russia: 288 KZT ($0.54) Kyrgyzstan: 385 KZT ($0.72) Uzbekistan: 489 KZT ($0.92) The price gap is similarly wide for diesel fuel: Kazakhstan: 295 KZT ($0.56) Russia: 355 KZT ($0.67) Kyrgyzstan: 427 KZT ($0.80) Uzbekistan: 528 KZT ($0.90) Price differences for gasoline range from 40% to 138%, while for diesel fuel the gap is between 20% and 79%. The Ministry of Energy emphasizes that this price liberalization is crucial for addressing the challenges caused by these discrepancies. According to the Ministry, the reform will help: Prevent illegal fuel exports. Ensure the economic viability of oil production projects. Enable expansion of refinery capacity from 18 million to 28 million tons per year. The modernization of the oil refining sector, spurred by market-based pricing, would also create new jobs and provide additional funding for government programs. “Phased liberalization of prices with priority support for socially vulnerable segments of the population is necessary. It will create a sustainable system for supplying the domestic market and ensure economic feasibility,” the Ministry’s explanatory note states. The Ministry has assured the public that the transition to market pricing will be gradual and carefully managed to avoid sharp or sudden price increases. Authorities also promise strengthened oversight of the fuel and lubricants market to ensure uninterrupted supply and compliance with legal standards. Agricultural producers, a key sector reliant on affordable fuel, will retain access to subsidized pricing under transparent mechanisms. Additionally, the government has pledged to implement social support measures to protect low-income and vulnerable populations from the financial impact of rising fuel prices. “Liberalization will ensure predictability of changes and create conditions for modernization of the industry. Social support will be prioritized, and agricultural producers will continue to benefit from structured access to fuel,” the Ministry emphasized. Kazakhstan’s plan to phase out state regulation of fuel prices marks a significant shift in the country’s energy policy. By transitioning to market pricing, the government aims to address long-standing challenges, including illegal exports and underinvestment in refinery modernization, while also ensuring social protections for vulnerable groups. The success of this reform will depend on how effectively the government balances economic modernization with public concerns over rising fuel costs.

Energy Sustainable Development Energy statistics Energy Security Green Transition

Tajikistan Leads Central Asia in Energy Transition Index

Tajikistan has secured the top position among Central Asian countries in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual Energy Transition Index (ETI). Ranking 71st out of 120 nations, Tajikistan achieved a score of 53.6. This performance places Tajikistan ahead of its regional neighbors, including Kyrgyzstan, which ranked 80th with a score of 52.7, and Kazakhstan, which came in 98th with 50.1. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan were not included in the ranking. The ETI evaluates global energy systems based on two primary criteria: Energy system efficiency (60% weighting); and readiness for a sustainable energy transition (40% weighting). Key factors influencing scores include energy affordability, sustainability, innovation, infrastructure, policy support, and investment activity. While Tajikistan’s score of 53.6 was slightly below the global average of 56.5, it outperformed many other nations in Central Asia. Globally, Northern European countries dominated the rankings. Sweden led the index with 78.4 points, followed by Denmark (75.2) and Finland (74.5). Among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Caspian countries, Azerbaijan ranked highest, securing 38th place with a score of 60.3. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on Tajikistan’s decision to rejoin Central Asia’s unified energy system. Originally established in 1960, the system interconnected the power networks of Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, northern Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan’s Shymkent region. These systems were linked by 110- and 220-kilovolt power lines and operated independently of the Soviet Union’s central energy network. Tajikistan’s leadership in the Energy Transition Index reflects its ongoing commitment to energy sustainability and regional collaboration.