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Russian Comments Put Kazakhstan’s Oil Transit to Germany Under Threat

Russia has warned Kazakhstan about the possible suspension of Kazakh crude oil transshipment to Germany through the Druzhba oil pipeline system. The stated reason is the debt of Polish pipeline operator PERN, according to a report by Reuters. Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, claims that Russia's Transneft has warned its Kazakh partner KazTransOil about the suspension of oil deliveries to the Schwedt refinery. The reason for this demarche is the outstanding debts of Polish state pipeline operator PERN. If the Polish company doesn't pay for the services of oil acceptance and transfer at the Polish transit point Adamova Zastava on the border with Belarus by June, the transit will be stopped. The amount of the debt is unknown. PERN explained its version of the situation by citing western sanctions against Russia. Payment of money to the Russian side can lead to violations of the sanctions regime. According to comments made by the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, the Kazakh government itself looks at the possibility of transit suspension very negatively. KazTransOil said that the plan of deliveries to Germany remains unchanged, and that negotiations with all participants of the process are underway. Curiously, the Ministry of Energy denied the Reuters report, claiming that "the information does not correspond to reality." In early April it was reported that the Kazakh side intends to supply 1.2 million tons of oil to the Schwedt refinery by the end of the year. This would not be the first case involving a cessation of Kazakh oil transiting Russian territory. Earlier, there were repeated problems with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, on the Black Sea. Some analysts believe that Russia uses oil transportation as an instrument to apply pressure to the Kazakh government.

Central Asia Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Business & Economy Business & Economy

Uzbekistan’s First Quarter 2024 Gold Exports Rise to $2.66 Billion

Uzbekistan exported gold worth $2.66 billion in the first quarter (January-March) of 2024. In 1Q 2024, Uzbekistan's total foreign trade turnover amounted to $15.8 billion, which is almost $1 billion (6.2%) more than in the same period in 2023. Exports increased by 10% to $6.38 billion, and imports increased to $9.44 billion. The foreign trade deficit decreased slightly and amounted to $3.05 billion, which is $232.2 million less than in 2023. In 1Q 2024, gold exports increased by 10.5% annually and amounted to $2.66 billion -- in 1Q 2023, the figure was $2.41 billion. Revenues from gold exports comprised 41.7% of the country’s total exports. More than $1.35 billion worth of gold was exported in March, or nearly the same amount as in February ($1.32 billion). Looking at the total annual figures, in 2023 Uzbekistan's total export volume was $24.4 billion. Of that sum, 33.4%, or $8.1 billion, was accounted for by gold exports.

Central Asia Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy

Central Asians Not Bananas About Bananas

According to the agricultural trade publication East Fruit, Central Asians have little taste for bananas. Kazakhstan has the highest consumption rate but with an average of 4.5 kg of fresh bananas eaten per person, per year, comes nowhere near Uganda where each year, individuals enjoy a whopping 270 kg of bananas. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are fast catching up with Kazakhstan whilst in Tajikistan, the annual banana consumption per head is only 2.3 kg. In Turkmenistan, it appears that many citizens never touch the fruit. Lagging far behind its neighbours, a very modest 160 grams are consumed per head, per year; a figure which according to East Fruit analysts is even lower than that recorded for North Korea. Not surprisingly, countries with the highest banana consumption tend to be those where the fruit is grown and exported and by way of explaining the above data, Andriy Yarmak, an economist in the investment department of the Unites Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) stated, "Such a low consumption of bananas in Central Asian countries is due to the distance of the countries from the port infrastructure, which makes logistics very expensive. In addition, many countries in the region have high tariff and non-tariff barriers that prevent the import of exotic fruits into these regions. The third factor is the relatively low prices of local fruits, especially in the season of their mass production.”

Central Asia Local Politics Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy Kyrgyzstan Local Politics Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy

Starlink Close to Providing Internet Access in Remote Parts of Kyrgyzstan

Representatives of Kyrgyzstan's ministry of digital development have met again with the American company Starlink, with a view to bringing satellite internet access to the country. However, there are still regulatory hurdles in Kyrgyzstan that hinder the development of Starlink technology. Elon Musk's aerospace company SpaceX first entered the Kyrgyz market in 2021, and a subsidiary company named Starlink KG was registered. However, the first attempts at cooperation were unsuccessful, as the Kyrgyz authorities refused to allocate the necessary radio frequencies without a tender process. Starlink KG received a license for its operations only at the end of last year. Nevertheless, Starlink remains willing to work with Kyrgyzstan, one of its directors Rebecca Hunter meeting recently with the Kyrgyz ambassador to the U.S. and Canada Baktybek Amanbaev to discuss this issue. Last year, deputy chairman of the cabinet Edil Baisalov also spoke with representatives from Starlink. They discussed the possibility of using this company's technology to deploy satellite internet in Kyrgyzstan's mountainous regions, particularly in remote schools.

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Kazakhstan Likely To Insist on Revisions to Kashagan Oil Contracts

Kazakhstan is demanding compensation for lost profits from the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), the consortium that manages the Kashagan oil field, and arbitration claims have risen to $150 billion. Sources close to Kashagan told The Times of Central Asia that this should send the message to western energy companies that Kazakhstan is looking to revise previously signed contracts. While Bloomberg has reported the sum of the claims, citing people familiar with the matter, Kazakh government officials have declined to comment on the situation, claiming that it is a "commercial dispute." In April 2023, proceedings against the companies developing the Kashagan and Karachaganak fields began as part of a dispute over cost deductions from oil-sale proceeds of more than $13 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively. An additional $138 billion claim relates to the calculation of the cost of oil production "that was promised to the government but not delivered by the field developers," according to Bloomberg. The Ministry of Energy has not yet commented on the new claims. It states that the Kazakh authorities seek to maximize profits from their oil-production projects with the participation of foreign investors, but have been relatively flexible in previous disputes with oil corporations. International sources note that Eni, Shell, Exxon and TotalEnergies have already invested around $55 billion in Kashagan, and currently the field produces about 400,000 barrels of oil per day. NCOC investors, led by Italy's Eni, are convinced that production can be increased to 1.5 million barrels per day. NCOC has stated that it acts in strict compliance with the contract. Representatives of Eni confirmed that the Kazakh authorities have applied to the court for arbitration settlement, but did not disclose details. Earlier, Kazakhstan won a lawsuit against the Kashagan consortium which required them to pay $5.1 billion for damage to the environment. Kashagan is developed by the NCOC consortium, which includes the national company KazMunayGas (KMG) and several foreign energy companies: Eni, Shell (Great Britain), ExxonMobil (USA), Total (France), Inpex (Japan), and CNPC (China). Member of the Public Council of the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, Olzhas Baidildinov believes that the sharp increase in the amount of the lawsuit is a signal from the Kazakh side to the consortium to revise the contracts. "In my opinion, it's obvious that Kazakhstan wants to revise the terms of work on large consortia. At the same time, I have proposed many times to exchange the frozen assets of the Russian Federation for stakes in major projects: Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan. There is a nuance here: for example, the shares in Karachaganak and Kashagan are managed by PSA LLP, which is determined by the authorized body, while the share in Tengiz is managed by KazMunayGas. As we see, on Kashagan and Karachaganak there are arbitration claims filed in international arbitration, there is an environmental issue - but on Tengiz they are silent for some reason. This is either KMG's unprofessionalism, because the amount of investment expense is very high, or some other unknown issues that need...

Central Asia Kazakhstan Local Politics Kazakhstan Business & Economy

AI Takes Hold in Kazakhstan’s Finance Industry

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has conducted a survey on the prospects for developing artificial intelligence (AI) in the country. The results of this survey showed that 31% of respondents who work in the finance industry are already using AI in their work. Analysts from the National Bank concluded that AI technologies are gaining popularity in Kazakhstan, with domestic banks becoming leaders in implementing AI in business processes. Among the most popular AI technologies in the Kazakhstani financial market are machine learning and computer vision -- as well as large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing. This indicates a wide range of innovative technologies are being applied to various financial activities. However, besides the sheer potential of the technologies, major barriers to further development of AI in the country have also been identified. These include lack of infrastructure and computing power, lack of security standards for AI products, difficulties in accessing data, and unreliable internet connections. The lack of an active national research and development (R&D) institute and low demand for AI products among potential customers were also cited.