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Transport Infrastructure

Kazakhstan’s Largest City to Bring Back Trams as Almaty LRT Targets 2027 Launch

Kazakhstan’s largest city plans to bring back tram service more than a decade after it was suspended. Almaty aims to launch the first light rail transit (LRT) line by the end of 2027, dedicating part of one of the city’s busiest transport corridors to the new system. For Almaty, the project is primarily an attempt to cope with growing pressure on its roads. The city had a population of about 2.37 million as of June 1, 2026, while many more people commute daily from the surrounding metropolitan area. Rail-based public transportation is currently limited to a single metro line, whose first section opened in 2011 after more than two decades of construction. The first phase of the LRT will run for 18.3 kilometers. Preparatory work is underway, including the removal of infrastructure from the former tram system and the relocation of utility networks. City authorities have said late 2027 remains the target for launching the line, although the timing could change depending on the manufacture and delivery of the trains. Unlike Astana’s LRT, the Almaty line will run entirely at street level, with no elevated sections planned. Trains will operate on dedicated tracks, including along Bauyrzhan Momyshuly and Tole Bi streets. On these sections, two center lanes will be allocated entirely to the LRT once the line begins operating. Before the main construction work can proceed, 375 sections of utility infrastructure must be relocated, including water, sewer, heating, gas, and electricity networks. This work is already creating additional traffic problems along Tole Bi, one of Almaty’s main thoroughfares. In some places, the roadway has been narrowed and traffic temporarily redirected into opposing lanes. The trains will be capable of speeds of up to 65–70 kilometers per hour, but their average operating speed will be considerably lower, at around 30–35 kilometers per hour. The main reason is that stops will be spaced about 700 meters apart on average. The line’s main advantage is expected to come less from the trains’ speed than from physically separating the LRT from regular road traffic. For Almaty, this marks a return to a familiar form of transportation. Trams first appeared in the city in 1937 and remained part of its transport system for almost eight decades. Service was suspended in 2015 following two serious accidents, and the network was never restored. The idea of replacing the old tram system with a modern LRT has been discussed for years. The project has repeatedly changed and been delayed, with different financing models and routes considered. The current line is part of a broader overhaul of Almaty’s transport system, which also includes expansion of the metro, bus rapid transit (BRT) corridors, and dedicated bus lanes. Under the city’s long-term master plan, the LRT network is expected to reach 76 kilometers by 2040. Kazakhstan has already gained its first experience operating this type of transport in the capital. Astana’s LRT began carrying passengers in 2026 after years of construction and repeated delays. During its first two weeks of full...

Oil and Gas

U.S. Firm to Test Oilfield Water Recycling in Kazakhstan

U.S.-based IBL Elements will test technology in Kazakhstan for treating water produced during oil and gas extraction. The treated water could be reused, while the substances it contains will be studied to determine whether valuable and critical minerals can potentially be recovered. IBL Elements, the National Hydrogeological Service Kazhydrogeology, and oil producer Kazakhoil Aktobe have signed a memorandum of cooperation. The parties are preparing a pilot project to test technologies for treating industrial and produced water at oil and gas facilities. Produced water occurs naturally in underground formations and is brought to the surface along with oil and gas. Once separated from hydrocarbons, it can be treated for reuse or disposal, or reinjected underground. The new project is intended to determine whether some of this water can be returned to industrial use. Specialists will also study its composition and the possibility of recovering minerals. For now, the project is limited to research and testing. No commercial extraction of any elements has been announced. IBL Elements is based in Oklahoma and develops technologies for treating oilfield wastewater and recovering minerals from brines. The company says it is developing iodine extraction technology and also plans to recover lithium and other minerals. If the trials are successful, the technology could also be used at other oil and gas facilities in Kazakhstan, according to Bolat Bekniyaz, chairman of Kazhydrogeology. The project comes as American interest in Kazakhstan’s critical minerals is growing. In June, representatives of more than 20 U.S. companies and government agencies attended the AMM 2026 mining and metallurgy congress in Astana. Washington is looking at projects in Kazakhstan involving not only mining, but also processing and the development of new supply chains. For the IBL Elements project, critical minerals are only one part of the equation. The other is growing pressure on Kazakhstan’s water supplies. The country uses about 25 billion cubic meters of water annually, with industry accounting for roughly a quarter of that amount. Kazakhstan’s new Water Code requires industrial enterprises and heat producers to gradually transition to circulating and reused water supply systems. So far, 168 transition plans have been prepared. The authorities aim to increase the share of reused water in industry from 13% to 28% by 2030. The issue is particularly acute in Kazakhstan’s oil-producing west, where freshwater shortages coincide with large volumes of water brought to the surface during oil production. The outcome of the pilot will therefore depend on two factors: whether this water can be treated for reuse and whether it contains minerals at concentrations high enough to make their recovery economically viable.

Fuel Prices

Turkmenistan Tightens Diesel Limits as Fuel Shortages Persist

Turkmenistan has halved the amount of diesel that vehicles may carry in their tanks when leaving the country, cutting the limit from 300 to 150 liters from August 10. The charge for every liter above the limit has also risen from 20 manat (about $1) to 30 manat (about $1.50). The move is the second tightening of the rules in several months. According to Chronicles of Turkmenistan, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov signed the relevant decree on August 5. At the beginning of April, vehicles leaving Turkmenistan were limited to 300 liters of diesel in their tanks, with a charge of 20 manat, or about $1 at the market exchange rate, for every additional liter. Enforcement was assigned to the border and customs services, as well as the state-owned concern Turkmenneft, The Times of Central Asia reported. The large price difference between Turkmenistan and neighboring markets creates an incentive to take fuel across the border. In April, The Times of Central Asia reported that diesel in Turkmenistan cost around $0.05 per liter, compared with approximately $1 in Uzbekistan, $0.60 in Kazakhstan, and $0.90 in Russia. Low regulated prices extend beyond diesel. In July, petrol in Turkmenistan cost around $0.43 per liter, placing the country among the world's cheapest markets. By comparison, AI-95 petrol cost about $0.68 in Kazakhstan, approximately $1.02 in Kyrgyzstan, and around $1.34 in Uzbekistan, according to Chronicles of Turkmenistan. Independent media have also reported persistent shortages of petrol and diesel inside Turkmenistan, particularly outside Ashgabat. In July, Turkmen.news reported large queues at filling stations and shortages of both petrol and diesel in the regions. The outlet also published documents indicating problems with aviation kerosene supplies at Ashgabat International Airport. One document from June 2024 said the airport had 2,500 tons of kerosene available, enough for only two to three days at prevailing consumption levels. By December 2024, another document showed reserves had fallen to 728 tons, less than one day's supply. Turkmen.news reported that problems with kerosene allocations continued into 2026. The situation is notable because Turkmenistan produces and refines its own oil. The country has two major refining centers, the Turkmenbashi oil refinery complex on the Caspian Sea and the Seydi refinery in the east. Petroleum products are supplied to the domestic market and also exported. Fuel shortages have occurred repeatedly. In 2024, eastern regions of Turkmenistan experienced serious petrol shortages. Drivers in the Lebap and Mary regions waited for hours at filling stations, while some stations imposed purchase limits. The shortage also disrupted public transport and contributed to higher food prices, The Times of Central Asia reported. The latest border restrictions add another element to this picture. Independent outlets have linked the limits to the wide gap between heavily regulated domestic fuel prices and prices abroad, which creates opportunities for cross-border resale. Halving the diesel allowance to 150 liters further restricts the amount that can leave Turkmenistan in vehicle tanks as reports of domestic shortages continue.

Direct Flights

Etihad Flights to Uzbekistan Begin Daily as Almaty Service Moves to 2027

Etihad Airways has launched daily service between Abu Dhabi and Tashkent, adding Uzbekistan to its operated network. A direct service to Almaty that had been scheduled for March 2026 is now expected in 2027. Etihad's inaugural outbound flight departed Abu Dhabi on August 9 and arrived in Tashkent early on August 10. The return flight left later that morning, and the route is operated with an Airbus A320. Etihad senior vice president Jurriaan Pieter Stelder told The Times of Central Asia that the airline had studied Uzbekistan's aviation market for several years before entering it. He said the growth of local airlines and established business demand led Etihad to begin with a higher frequency than it might use in other new markets. Etihad expects the route to perform in line with its network, which recorded an average passenger load factor of 89.7% in the first two months of 2026. Stelder said the carrier expects to fill at least 140 of roughly 160 seats on each leg. The route is supported by a codeshare agreement with Uzbekistan Airways that took effect in May. Etihad customers can buy a single ticket through Tashkent to eight domestic destinations, while Uzbekistan Airways passengers can connect to Abu Dhabi on the Etihad service. The partnership allows Etihad to test demand for Samarkand through Uzbekistan Airways. “We know there is particularly strong demand for Samarkand,” Stelder said. He added that Etihad could eventually operate another route in Uzbekistan if the market grows. Commercial ties between Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have grown rapidly, including through civil aviation cooperation. In January 2025, the two governments set targets to increase bilateral trade by a factor of ten by 2030 and raise the bilateral investment portfolio to $50 billion. Etihad Chief Digital Officer Frank Meyer said the relationship already supports business travel, while tourism demand needs further development. He added that Etihad would hire local staff for airport operations and sales, while local contractors would handle ground services. Etihad already reaches Kazakhstan through a codeshare with Air Astana. The agreement allows customers to book Air Astana-operated connections through Almaty and Astana. Etihad announced plans for its own Almaty route in July 2025, with eight weekly flights scheduled from March 16, 2026. The launch did not take place, but Stelder said the carrier had not abandoned the destination. “We expect to start flying to Kazakhstan, specifically Almaty, sometime in 2027,” he said. “For now, we decided it was better to start with Tashkent.”

Electricity Demand

Kyrgyzstan Electricity Imports to Rise Again in 2026

Kyrgyzstan will again have to import a significant share of its electricity in 2026. With consumption expected to reach 19.6 billion kWh, domestic power plants are projected to generate 15.5 billion kWh. The difference, around 4.1 billion kWh, will have to be covered by imports. For a country where most electricity is generated by hydropower plants along the Naryn River, many of them built during the Soviet period, the current deficit is the result of a long-running gap between rising demand and the construction of new large-scale generating capacity. The new estimates from the Energy Ministry were presented on August 10 during preparations for the heating season. A year earlier, Kyrgyzstan imported about 3.9 billion kWh, meaning that its dependence on external supplies is expected to increase slightly this year. The reasons go far beyond the current period of low water levels. Kyrgyzstan’s power system in its present form developed as part of the integrated Soviet Central Asian network. The republic controlled the upper reaches of the Naryn River, while reservoirs and hydropower plants built along it served two purposes: generating electricity and regulating water flows for agriculture downstream, primarily in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The first major plant on the Naryn was the Uch-Kurgan Hydropower Plant, commissioned in the early 1960s. Construction of the much larger Toktogul hydropower complex began in 1962. Toktogul was commissioned in January 1975. It was followed by the Kurpsai, Tash-Kumyr, and Shamaldy-Sai hydropower plants. This cascade became the backbone of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity sector. The Soviet system was not designed to make each republic self-sufficient in energy. Kyrgyzstan stored water during the colder months and released it for downstream irrigation in summer, generating electricity that fed into the regional grid. In return, it received fuel and power from elsewhere in the Soviet system during winter. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that integrated system fragmented, while the power plants and reservoirs remained. Construction of new large facilities then almost stopped. Work on Kambarata-2 began in 1986 but was suspended after the collapse of the Soviet Union; its first generating unit was not commissioned until 2010. As a result, a substantial share of Kyrgyzstan’s present-day electricity generation still comes from plants built several decades ago. The hydropower plants themselves are gradually being modernised. Following rehabilitation, Toktogul’s capacity increased from the original 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. But upgrading existing generating units does not solve the other problem: electricity consumption is growing faster than new sources of generation are being added. In 2025, the country consumed about 19.1 billion kWh, roughly 860 million kWh more than a year earlier. Imports totaled about 3.9 billion kWh from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. This year, imports are expected to increase to 4.1 billion kWh. The situation also depends on water availability. The Toktogul Reservoir allows part of the Naryn’s flow to be shifted between seasons, so its water level directly affects the generating capacity of the country’s largest hydropower plant. At the August 10 meeting, the authorities said the reservoir...

Growth Forecasts

Why Central Asia Growth Forecasts Differ So Sharply

How fast can Central Asia continue to grow? The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) give markedly different answers. The contrast is sharpest in Kyrgyzstan, where the EDB expects another year of double-digit growth, while the IMF sees a much more pronounced slowdown. Both institutions are looking at the same countries and have access to broadly the same set of macroeconomic data. Their forecasts, however, reflect different assessments of how much of Central Asia’s recent momentum can be sustained. The EDB expects strong investment to keep growth high, while the IMF is more cautious about how long the recent pace of expansion can continue. The EDB is itself a regional development institution. It was established by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006, with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan later becoming shareholders. Uzbekistan joined the bank in 2025. The EDB is headquartered in Almaty. The comparison covers the four Central Asian states that are EDB members; Turkmenistan is not included. Its latest forecast for Central Asia is optimistic. In 2026, the EDB expects growth of 10.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% in Tajikistan, 7.9% in Uzbekistan, and 5.5% in Kazakhstan. The region’s economy as a whole is expected to grow by more than 6.5%, with its combined GDP exceeding $600 billion for the first time. The IMF gives lower figures. Its latest available country projections put 2026 growth at 4.6% for Kazakhstan, 6.8% for Uzbekistan, 6.1% for Kyrgyzstan, and 6.0% for Tajikistan. These projections were published at different times rather than as a single set of four country forecasts. The largest gap is in Kyrgyzstan, where the forecasts differ by 4.1 percentage points, but there are nevertheless modest percentage point gaps between the forecasts for Tajikistan (2.3), Uzbekistan (1.1), and Kazakhstan (0.9). These differences are large enough to raise the question: why the difference in expectations? Part of the answer lies in how the institutions assess the effect of a more uncertain global economy. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its July update said the conflict in the Middle East was weighing particularly heavily on energy importers and warned that renewed conflict or financial-market disruption could weaken the outlook. For the four countries, this means different things. Kazakhstan exports oil and benefits from high prices, although it also depends on the condition of export routes and external demand. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan import a significant share of their fuel, while their economies are closely linked to migrant remittances. Uzbekistan has a larger domestic market and its own resource base. Kazakhstan illustrates the logic of the IMF forecast particularly well. Its GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025, one of its strongest performances in recent years. The Fund does not expect that surge to be repeated. Oil production is expected to stabilize after last year’s increase, with growth slowing to 4.6% in 2026, according to the IMF forecast. This does not mean that the Fund attributes everything to oil. Domestic demand remains strong,...