Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 7 - 12 of 3202

Aviation Industry

Iran War Redraws Air Routes, Boosting Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are emerging as potential beneficiaries of disruptions in the global aviation fuel market as tensions around Iran force airlines to reroute flights and rethink transit hubs. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including heightened risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has led to sharp increases in energy prices and supply disruptions. Gas prices in the EU have risen by 70%, and oil by 60%, with additional costs reaching €14 billion. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption critically significant for global markets. The aviation industry has been among the hardest hit sectors. According to industry sources cited by Bloomberg, Europe is expected to have sufficient jet fuel supplies in the short term, but stocks are under pressure, and supply risks could emerge if the conflict continues. The cost of jet fuel has risen from about $742 to more than $1,700 per ton in recent weeks in some markets. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. As reported by The Telegraph, citing data from Cirium, around 7% of scheduled flights were canceled at the peak of recent disruptions, equivalent to more than 7,000 departures, compared with about 4.7% a year earlier. Airlines are responding by cutting flight schedules and revising their business models. Lufthansa, for example, is considering temporarily grounding part of its fleet. According to CEO Carsten Spohr, fuel shortages are likely to be felt first outside Europe, where supply chains are more vulnerable. At the same time, airfares have already risen by 15-20%, beginning to dampen demand. As passenger demand softens and costs rise, carriers are balancing route cuts with the need to maintain key markets. Fuel Costs Drive Route Shifts According to Sergey Agibalov, consulting director at Argus in the CIS, significant changes are also occurring in the geography of international air travel. Major Middle Eastern hubs, such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, have seen a decline in transit traffic amid safety concerns and are operating below normal capacity on key routes. Agibalov argues that this creates a window of opportunity for alternative routes between Europe and Asia, including Istanbul, Addis Ababa, and hubs in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. “Airports in Central Asia and the South Caucasus are now attractive not only to passengers, but also to airlines. Disruptions to Middle Eastern jet fuel exports linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp rise in fuel prices globally. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. Recent industry data shows prices reaching as high as $1,600–1,800 per ton in some markets. Under these conditions, many airlines have begun optimizing their flight schedules; even if fuel is available, flying has become very expensive,” he noted. Against this backdrop, airports in Almaty, Astana, and Baku are seeing increased traffic and stronger airline interest. Argus estimates suggest volumes are already rising in Baku, as routes across Central...

Aviation

Uzbekistan Becomes Top International Destination for Russian Airlines

Uzbekistan has become the leading international destination for Russian airlines in the summer 2026 schedule, with flights planned on 67 routes between the two countries, according to data reported by ATO.ru, citing Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya. The figures show Uzbekistan surpassing other popular destinations for Russian carriers, including China and Turkey, by a significant margin. Flights to Uzbekistan will operate on 10 more routes than to China and 12 more than to Turkey. Other traditional leisure destinations, such as Thailand and Egypt, will see considerably fewer routes, with 35 and 33 respectively. According to the report, this marks a major shift compared to pre-pandemic travel patterns. In 2019, Uzbekistan ranked ninth among international destinations for Russian airlines, with passenger traffic totaling around 1.24 million people, well behind Turkey and China. The growing number of routes reflects strong demand for travel between the two countries. Analysts attribute this to labor migration, as well as expanding business and tourism ties. Uzbekistan has also gained importance as a transit hub, particularly as Western airspace restrictions now limit routing options for Russian carriers. Tashkent, in particular, has emerged as a key connection point for long-haul travel, including flights to the United States. Uzbekistan Airways remains the only Central Asian carrier operating transatlantic flights to New York. The trend is mirrored on the Uzbek side. According to earlier estimates by Lufthansa Consulting cited in the report, Russia accounted for 49% of Uzbek airlines’ passenger traffic in 2019, rising to 52% by 2022. In the current summer schedule, Uzbekistan Airways operates flights to 19 Russian cities, while private carriers such as Centrum Air and Qanot Sharq serve multiple destinations, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. A new airline, FlyOne Asia, is also expected to launch services on five routes from Tashkent to Russian cities. Previously, The Times of Central Asia reported that Uzbekistan Airways continues to maintain regular operations on Russian routes, including a January incident in which a Boeing 767 flying from Tashkent to Vladivostok made a safe emergency landing in Krasnoyarsk.

Finance

Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Links Tenge Strengthening to Rising Oil Prices

Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Timur Suleimenov, has attributed the recent strengthening of the tenge to rising global oil prices, which have increased export revenues and boosted the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market. According to the regulator, the tenge appreciated by 3.9% in March, reaching 478.15 KZT to the dollar. The average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange increased from $335 million to $372 million, while total trading volume reached $6.7 billion. Currency sales from the National Fund totaled $400 million, supporting transfers to the state budget. In addition, approximately $391 million was supplied through the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by quasi-state sector entities. No foreign exchange interventions were conducted during the period. As a result, the National Fund accounted for about 6% of total trading volume, or roughly $22 million per day. Exporters remained the primary source of foreign currency supply, Suleimenov noted. “Kazakhstan’s main export is oil. Prices are rising, volumes remain unchanged, and accordingly, export revenues and currency supply are increasing,” he said. Preliminary estimates indicate that National Fund currency sales in April will total $300-400 million, broadly in line with March levels. Suleimenov also said the tenge remains stable despite earlier forecasts by some analysts suggesting a potential weakening to 1,000-2,000 KZT to the dollar. At the same time, he warned of inflationary risks linked to rising tariffs. According to him, the government plans to factor inflationary pressures into future adjustments of utility and fuel prices. As of April 1, the moratorium on increases in utility and fuel tariffs in Kazakhstan, introduced in October 2025, has expired. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that economist Aidarkhan Kusainov had suggested the tenge could weaken to 1,000 per dollar or even further, arguing that the national currency is overvalued.

Oil

U.S. Extends Sanctions Exemption for Transit of Russian Oil Through Kazakhstan

The United States has extended a sanctions exemption allowing the transit of Russian oil to China through Kazakhstan until March 2027, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy. The license was issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control under the U.S. Department of the Treasury and is valid until March 19, 2027. “Following negotiations with OFAC, the term of the license for the transit of Russian oil to China has been extended. Cooperation on this issue will continue,” the ministry said in a statement. The ministry added that Kazakhstan and Russia are discussing the possibility of increasing supply volumes. At present, transit continues under existing sanctions exemptions. Kazakhstan transports approximately 10 million tons of Russian oil to China annually under an intergovernmental agreement valid until 2034. Earlier, Islamdaut Akubaev, a representative of KazTransOil, said Kazakhstan had received notification from OFAC regarding an extension of the transit permit until April 2026.

Kashagan

Kazakhstan Expands Kashagan Legal Fight as Arbitration and Claims Mount

For several years, Kazakhstan has been engaged in arbitration proceedings worth billions of dollars, many of which have been conducted behind closed doors. Recently, new details have emerged about one of the largest disputes, involving the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC). The dispute stems from environmental violations identified during a 2022 inspection at the Kashagan field. Environmental authorities found that the operator, NCOC, had stored approximately 1.2 million tons of sulfur in excess of permitted limits. As a result, the company faced a fine of around $5 billion. Kashagan is one of the largest and most technically complex offshore oil fields ever discovered, with proven hydrocarbon reserves estimated at 4.65 billion tons. The consortium includes seven major international energy companies: KazMunayGas (16.88%); Eni (16.81%); Shell (16.81%); ExxonMobil (16.81%); TotalEnergies (16.81%); CNPC (8.33%); and INPEX Ltd (7.56%). A lawsuit was filed by all consortium members except KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company. The field has long been central to Kazakhstan’s oil production and relations with international investors. Kazakhstan’s interests in the Kashagan dispute are represented by the Ministry of Ecology and the Ministry of Justice. According to the Vice Minister of Justice, Daniel Vaisov, a trial court has already ruled in favor of the state. “A first-instance court has ruled in Kazakhstan, recognizing the state’s position as lawful. Six contractors — excluding KazMunayGas — filed an appeal in March,” Vaisov said. NCOC challenged the environmental inspection results. In June 2023, a court in Astana partially upheld the company’s claims. However, this was overturned in February 2024, when an appellate court ruled in favor of the government, confirming the inspection’s legality. Subsequent developments have further complicated the case. In August 2025, an Astana court overturned the environmental agency’s order, citing procedural violations. The case is once again under appeal. At the same time, the contractors have challenged the $5 billion fine through international arbitration. The proceedings are set to take place in Washington at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), where the arbitral tribunal is currently being formed, Vaisov said. The case is being closely watched as a test of how far Kazakhstan is willing to push legal pressure on major Western energy investors. Separately, Kazakhstan is pursuing much larger claims against Kashagan consortium members under the production-sharing agreement. In May 2024, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy said claims against Kashagan project developers could reach up to $150 billion. Initially, the government sought $15 billion from NCOC. It later increased its claims by a further $138 billion, citing lost profits linked to oil volumes that investors had committed to supply to the state. The Ministry of Energy has described the dispute as purely commercial, relating to Kazakhstan’s rights under the production-sharing agreement. Officials maintain that the legal proceedings do not affect the investment standing of project participants. Separately, in January last year, an economic court in Astana ordered NCOC to pay 3.5 billion KZT (about $8 million) for excessive flaring of raw gas. In addition to Kashagan, Shell is involved in...

Fuel Prices

Central Asia Avoids Fuel Shock as Global Pressures Build

Central Asia has so far avoided the immediate fuel shocks spreading across much of the world following the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. There are no lines at gas stations, no visible shortages, and no signs of panic buying. But that stability sits within a rapidly tightening global market, where disruptions in Asia and policy responses in Europe are reshaping fuel flows in ways the region will struggle to avoid. Across Southeast Asia, governments are already taking precautionary steps. Some state agencies and private firms are shifting parts of their workforce to remote work to reduce fuel consumption and prepare for potential price spikes and logistics disruptions, while Thailand is preparing contingency measures, including possible fuel rationing. China, one of Asia’s largest suppliers of refined fuels, has moved to restrict exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in an effort to prevent domestic shortages linked to the war. The move is expected to tighten supplies across Asia, especially for countries that rely on Chinese fuel imports. China supplied about one-third of Australia’s jet fuel last year, highlighting the wider regional impact, and roughly half of the Philippines’ and Bangladesh’s in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare for flight reductions in April due to the risk of shortages caused by these export restrictions. Indonesia is also imposing limits on fuel sales. Fuel-related pressures have begun to emerge in Europe as well. Poland has introduced tax measures aimed at reducing fuel prices, with the government saying this will lower prices for consumers. Slovenia, meanwhile, has introduced significant restrictions on fuel consumption. Under new rules, private motorists are limited to purchasing a maximum of 50 liters per day, while businesses and farmers may purchase up to 200 liters daily. The combined effect of war-driven energy shocks and renewed tariff barriers is raising global costs and adding pressure across trade, transport, and inflation. Against this backdrop, Central Asia’s apparent stability is misleading. It is highly unlikely that import-dependent states such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be as well protected as Kazakhstan, which may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices. Starting April 1, Russia is banning gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize its own domestic market. Russia is a key fuel supplier to Central Asia. However, according to assurances from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the temporary export ban will not affect supplies to Uzbekistan. Deliveries under intergovernmental agreements are expected to continue, ensuring that at least part of the region’s supply remains uninterrupted. In Kyrgyzstan, despite recent developments, fuel prices and supplies remain relatively stable. The government is considering lowering taxes or temporarily waiving excise duties for fuel importers should the crisis continue. Information from Turkmenistan is difficult to verify independently. Despite reports of fuel shortages at gas stations last year, official media are now indicating a significant increase in domestic gasoline production. The production plan for January-February 2026 was reportedly fulfilled at 122.7%, according to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Guvancha...