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Referendum

Kazakhstan To Hold Referendum on New Constitution On March 15

Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum on March 15 in what President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has described as “a complete reboot” to modernize government and introduce more institutional accountability. The date of the referendum was announced in a notice that was published on the presidential website on Wednesday. It said the draft of the proposed new constitution will appear in the media on Thursday, and the question to be posed to voters in March is: "Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on February 12, 2026?" The Central Election Commission will oversee the referendum, according to the notice. The outlines of the proposed changes are already circulating publicly in Kazakhstan, which has made a number of amendments to the current constitution dating from the mid-1990s. The planned changes include replacing the current bicameral parliament with a single chamber and introducing the post of vice president. “The proposed amendments will allow for the redistribution of powers, strengthen the balance in the system of checks and balances, and, most importantly, increase the effectiveness and sustainability of all political institutions,” Tokayev has said. Analysts view the shift from personality-driven rule to more institutionalized governance as a step toward building a more resilient state capable of managing leadership transitions and broadening stakeholder participation. While the foundation for greater representation is being laid, critics say progress should move faster, particularly in expanding political and civic space. If sustained, however, the current trajectory could open the way to deeper and more durable reform through strengthened institutional processes.

Dismissals

Kyrgyz President Dismisses Right-Hand Man to “Prevent a Split in Society”

A political earthquake hit Kyrgyzstan on February 10. The tandem of President Sadyr Japarov and security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev was seemingly broken when Japarov dismissed Tashiyev from his post. The reason given for relieving Tashiyev of his position was that it was “in the interests of our state, in order to prevent a split in society, including between government structures,” which hinted that something serious had caused the rift. Old Friends After the brief tumultuous events of October 5-6, 2020, that saw the government of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov ousted in the wake of parliamentary elections plagued by violations, Japarov came to power and appointed Tashiyev to be head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The two have remained in those positions and were often referred to as a tandem. Some believe Tashiyev has actually been the one making many of the important state decisions. Their relationship goes back much further, to the days when Kurmanbek Bakiyev was Kyrgyzstan’s president from 2005-2010. In August 2006, Japarov, Tashiyev, and some other politicians from Kyrgyzstan’s southern Osh area cofounded the Idealistic Democratic Political Party of Kyrgyzstan, which later became the foundation for the Ata-Jurt party. Both Japarov and Tashiyev were supporters of President Bakiyev. When Bakiyev was forced to flee the country after the 2010 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, the Ata-Jurt party became the strongest opposition party to the government that emerged after the revolution. Ata-Jurt won the most seats, 28, in the snap October 2010 parliamentary elections, and among the party’s deputies were Japarov, Tashiyev, and another politician named Talant Mamytov. The three Ata-Jurt deputies helped organize anti-government protests, and during one outside the government building in Bishkek in October 2012, Japarov, Tashiyev, and Mamytov jumped the fence and led an armed crowd to the building. All three were convicted in 2013 of trying to overthrow the government. They were sentenced to a mere 18 months in prison, but did not even serve that, with all three being released in July 2013. Japarov helped lead a protest in Kyrgyzstan’s northeastern Issyk-Kul Province in October that year. A local official was captured and briefly held by protesters, and after order was restored, Japarov was charged with hostage-taking. He fled the country and only returned in March 2017. Japarov was immediately arrested and sentenced to 11 ½ years in prison. A crowd released Japarov from prison when unrest started on October 5, 2020. Tashiyev was among those who quickly put forth Japarov to be Kyrgyzstan’s next leader, and by October 15, Japarov was both acting prime minister and acting president. He appointed Tashiyev to be GKNB chief on October 16. Mamytov was elected speaker of parliament on November 4, 2020. The Dismissal Tashiyev was in Germany receiving medical treatment when Japarov dismissed him. On February 11, Tashiyev commented from Germany on his dismissal, calling it unexpected, but said he would heed the president’s decision. “I served our state, people, and president honorably, and I'm proud of it,” Tashiyev said, and expressed his “gratitude...

Revolution

Kyrgyzstan’s Revolutions Since Independence: Three Uprisings That Remade the State

Since gaining independence in 1991, Kyrgyzstan has experienced three major uprisings that removed presidents and reset the political system. The events in 2005, 2010, and 2020 did not follow one script, but shared familiar triggers: disputed elections, corruption, rising living costs, and a belief that the state had been captured by a narrow circle. Kyrgyzstan began its post-Soviet life with a reputation for relative openness. Askar Akayev initially presented himself as a reform-minded leader, but by the early 2000s, public frustration had grown over perceived corruption and patronage. Political competition increasingly revolved around money, influence networks, and regional loyalties. Weak institutions made leadership transitions risky, and street politics became a recurring instrument of change. The 2005 Tulip Revolution: The Akayev Era Ends The first upheaval occurred in spring 2005, following parliamentary elections widely criticized by international observers. The OSCE/ODIHR final report on the February–March 2005 parliamentary elections documented serious irregularities that undermined confidence in the vote: Protests began in the south and spread to Bishkek. On March 24, 2005, Akayev fled the country as demonstrators seized key government buildings. His resignation was later formalized from abroad. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on April 4, 2005, that Akayev had signed a resignation agreement intended to stabilize the situation and pave the way for new elections. Kurmanbek Bakiyev emerged as interim leader and later won the July 2005 presidential election. The OSCE/ODIHR assessment of that vote noted improvements compared with the parliamentary elections but highlighted continuing structural weaknesses. The 2010 April Revolution: Bakiyev Overthrown By 2010, public anger was focused on rising utility prices and the concentration of power around Bakiyev’s family. The International Crisis Group’s report Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses detailed how economic grievances and corruption helped spark a violent uprising. On April 7, 2010, clashes between protesters and security forces in Bishkek left dozens dead and injured, with the official death toll later revised to 99. Bakiyev fled the country, and a referendum later that year shifted Kyrgyzstan toward a parliamentary system designed to reduce presidential dominance. The transition produced a more plural political environment, though corruption and instability persisted. In June 2010, interethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, particularly around Osh, caused significant loss of life and displacement, deepening divisions and reshaping the political climate. The 2020 Upheaval: Election Protests and Rapid Power Shift Kyrgyzstan’s third major uprising followed disputed parliamentary elections on October 4, 2020, when allegations of vote buying triggered mass protests. The Central Election Commission annulled the results, plunging the country into a political crisis. President Sooronbay Jeenbekov resigned on October 15, 2020, with Reuters reporting that “newly sprung from jail,” Sadyr Japarov had consolidated power amid the turmoil. The OSCE/ODIHR assessment of the January 2021 presidential election and constitutional referendum noted that the vote occurred against the backdrop of political upheaval following the annulled parliamentary elections. Japarov won the presidency in January 2021, and a new constitution entered into force in May 2021, strengthening presidential powers and reshaping the political system. Why Revolutions Keep Happening...

Presidential Election

Is Kyrgyzstan About to Have a Snap President Election?

Kyrgyzstan held early parliamentary elections at the end of November 2025 that were moved forward by a year so that they would not overlap with the campaign for the presidential election scheduled for January 2027. On February 9, a group of 75 former officials and notable figures from various spheres of society publicly submitted a letter to the president and speaker of parliament calling on them to “immediately initiate a new election for president.” While there has yet to be any official response, such a proposal is likely to be accepted, leaving anyone who planned on running against incumbent President Sadyr Japarov with little time to organize a campaign. Early Parliamentary Elections In June 2025, amendments were introduced to the electoral system. The split system of using single-mandate districts and party lists to elect parliamentary deputies was changed to only single-mandate districts, and electoral districts were redivided. This sparked discussions that perhaps early parliamentary elections were needed to fill the 90 seats with deputies elected under the newly-approved system. The argument that tilted the debate toward early elections was that parliamentary elections were scheduled for late November 2026 and the presidential election for January 2027. The general opinion was that having the two elections so close together would make voters weary and unable to fully focus on the presidential campaign. Also, if the vote count was delayed in some districts or there were legal challenges, these processes would be ongoing as campaigning for the presidency got underway. The solution was to move parliamentary elections forward by a year. In September 2025, parliament voted to dissolve itself, and November 30 was named as the date for early elections. The Letter The petition addressed to President Japarov and Speaker of Parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu was signed by former deputies, nine former governors, four former prime ministers, several high-ranking members of the military, academics, artists, and even an Olympic Games medal-winner. The letter praised the current administration for establishing stability in Kyrgyzstan, strengthening the country’s armed forces, resolving long-standing border issues with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, successfully battling corruption, and eliminating organized crime in the country. The letter also mentioned remaining problems such as the growing national debt, poverty, and the outflow of “especially young people” unable to find employment and going to other countries to work. A key point in the appeal for an early presidential election was that it would clear up an ambiguity in President Japarov’s term. Japarov came to power in the wake of the October 2020 revolution that was sparked by parliamentary elections riddled with irregularities. He was elected in January 2021 to a six-year term in office, but in April that year, a national referendum approved a new constitution with a five-year presidential term. Therefore, holding the presidential election this year would bring Japarov closer into line with the new constitution. Additionally, the previous constitution, which had a six-year presidential term, also limited a president to one term in office. The new constitution allows for two five-year terms....

Healthcare

Tokayev to Personally Oversee Probe Into Medical Insurance Fund Embezzlement

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has pledged to personally oversee the investigation into large-scale embezzlement from Kazakhstan’s Social Medical Insurance Fund (SMIF) and has instructed the government to accelerate the rollout of a unified national healthcare information system. The move follows a series of alarming revelations about systemic fraud in the medical insurance system. In January, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered that control of the SMIF be transferred to the Ministry of Finance to bring financial flows under tighter oversight. Subsequent audits uncovered widespread violations, including the registration of fictitious patients, the billing of unnecessary medical services, duplicate financing of procedures, and even the provision of treatments to deceased citizens. The findings have been submitted to law enforcement agencies for investigation. Addressing an expanded government meeting, Tokayev stated that fraudulent activity in the social sector had reached “unprecedented proportions,” and emphasized that the Prosecutor General’s Office and other relevant bodies must investigate all instances of wrongdoing, regardless of the statute of limitations or the individuals involved. “I will personally oversee the investigation process,” the president declared. Tokayev attributed much of the abuse to the absence of a unified digital infrastructure in Kazakhstan’s healthcare system. More than 30 separate and unintegrated information systems are currently in use, creating serious gaps in oversight and traceability. In response, the president has ordered the government to finalize the development of a single, centralized state medical information system by December 1. The new platform is expected to provide full traceability of services and financial transactions, and to digitize all SMIF operations. Tokayev emphasized that digitization is essential for ensuring transparency and the proper use of public funds. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, earlier this year, the government also announced it would cover health insurance contributions for more than one million unemployed citizens.

Armed Forces

In the Line of Duty: Hazing, Tragedy, and Reform in Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces

Kazakhstan mandates universal military conscription for men between the ages of 18 and 27, with a standard service term of 12 months. Tens of thousands of young men are drafted into the military each year during two annual call-up periods. Evasion is illegal, yet public attitudes toward mandatory service are increasingly ambivalent. Officially, military service is presented as an honorable civic duty, with promises of educational preferences and social benefits upon completion. In practice, many young Kazakhs seek ways to avoid conscription, motivated not just by the disruption of a year out of civilian life, but by fears of hazing and abuse. ‘Hazing’ refers to a covert system of informal hierarchy in which senior conscripts intimidate and mistreat new recruits. Although the Ministry of Defense claims such practices were eradicated in the 2010s through reform and a transition to a mixed staffing model combining conscripts and contract soldiers, hazing has remained a persistent issue. According to a Demoscope survey from September 2025, 37.8% of Kazakhstanis said violence and informal power structures in the army are excessive. Among respondents aged 18–29, support for a full transition to a professional contract army was significantly higher, reflecting broader concerns about conditions and safety. For many families, a draft notice is not a matter of honor but a potential sentence. The Dark Side of the Barracks: Fatalities and Scandals Kazakhstan’s armed forces have faced a troubling number of peacetime deaths in recent years, prompting growing public concern. Between 2020 and 2022, 259 servicemen died across the armed forces and other security agencies, with at least 11 more deaths reported in early 2023. In late 2025, MP Nartay Sarsengaliyev noted that 270 soldiers had died in three years. In January 2026 alone, three incidents raised alarms: a National Guard serviceman died in Shymkent on January 6; another soldier died from a gunshot wound in Ust-Kamenogorsk on January 23; and a serviceman in the Zhambyl region died from a firearms injury on January 27. While the causes ranged from illness to the accidental mishandling of weapons, many families suspect hazing and abuse as underlying factors. Several high-profile cases from 2025 further damaged public trust. In January, 18-year-old Dastan Kurmanbek was found dead from a gunshot wound in a Saryozek unit; the military declared it a suicide, but his family alleged murder. That spring, 18-year-old Salamat Sabitov, who was drafted despite serious health issues according to his family, died of meningitis just one month into his service. In September, 19-year-old Dinmukhamed Shynarbek was found dead in a military unit in the Almaty region; officials again claimed suicide, but relatives rejected the explanation and demanded an independent investigation. Officers have also been implicated in violence. In summer 2024, a conscript in the Mangystau region was reportedly shot in the face by a superior officer. One of the most publicized cases was that of 22-year-old National Guard soldier Yerbayan Mukhtar, who suffered a severe head injury under suspicious circumstances in a barracks bathroom in December 2023. Though military doctors...