Central Asia is commonly seen as a region with a young and rapidly growing population. The region’s population is still expanding, but birth trends are beginning to diverge. In the first half of 2026, births fell noticeably in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan recorded modest increases.
Excluding Turkmenistan, about 711,300 children were born in the four other Central Asian countries during the six-month period, 5.5% fewer than a year earlier. Uzbek economist Mirkomil Kholboev highlighted the differences between the countries after comparing national statistics.
“Births are declining in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while they are increasing in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan,” Kholboev noted.
Uzbekistan recorded the largest decline, with the number of births falling 7.9% to 373,389. Of those, about 192,900 were boys and 180,500 were girls.
The decline is not new. In 2025, about 879,600 children were born in Uzbekistan, 5.1% fewer than a year earlier. That has not prevented the country’s population from continuing to grow rapidly, reaching 38.2 million at the beginning of 2026. The Times of Central Asia previously examined why Uzbekistan’s population continues to expand even as the number of births declines.
A similar picture is emerging in Kazakhstan. A total of 149,774 births were registered from January through June, down 7.1% from the same period last year. Kazakhstan’s population nevertheless continues to grow and reached 20.59 million by July 1.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are moving in the opposite direction for now. Kyrgyzstan recorded about 66,300 births in the first half of the year, up 2% from a year earlier. In Tajikistan, 121,810 children were born, an increase of 0.9%.
The divergence is also notable in the wider post-Soviet context. Births have declined in Armenia and Azerbaijan as well. In Ukraine, 73,292 children were born in the first half of 2026, 16% fewer than during the same period a year earlier. Russia has sharply restricted the publication of demographic statistics since 2025, making current comparisons more difficult, although the last available figures also showed births continuing to decline.
For Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the current figures do not mean their populations are shrinking. Births still substantially outnumber deaths, leaving both countries with strong natural population growth despite the decline in births.
If these differences persist, their effects will extend well beyond demographic statistics. For a region with rapidly growing cities and large young populations, they could eventually mean different levels of demand for schools and universities. They could also affect labor markets and the number of new workers entering the economies of the four countries.
