BISHKEK (TCA) — As Russia is facing an economic downturn, it may constrain Moscow’s military aid to Central Asian countries. Here below we are republishing an article originally published by Stratfor, entitled “China will undermine Russia’s military influence in Central Asia”, on Beijing’s expanding military influence in the region.
“Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, an unexplored frontier opened up for China to its west. Central Asia offered Beijing new sources of raw materials and new markets — not to mention a major transit zone for exports — to feed China’s growing economy. But China did not have the military to buttress its economic position, nor did it want to upset Russia, a power wary of rising Chinese influence, especially in its former Soviet periphery. With these concerns in mind, Beijing carefully shaped a military and economic strategy for Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan.
“Over the years, China has increased its military aid to Central Asian countries, primarily providing uniforms along with communications and border monitoring equipment. In 2014, China agreed to provide $6.5 million in military assistance to Kyrgyzstan and promised hundreds of millions of dollars to Tajikistan for uniforms and training. Similarly, in 2016 China agreed to send almost half a billion dollars in aid to Afghanistan’s armed forces. Since 2002, it has also participated in more than 20 bilateral and multilateral military exercises with the Central Asian states. Between 2003 and 2009, China hosted 65 Kazakh officers in addition to 30 Kyrgyz and Tajik officers in 2008.
“As Beijing steadily expands its regional military influence in Central Asia, it will focus on arms sales, counterterrorism and bilateral initiatives. Many of these lie outside the confines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an economic and security body comprising China, Russia and most of the Central Asian states. Protecting its economic interests will be an especially notable component of Chinese strategy. And though Moscow has a military advantage in the region over Beijing for now, China’s efforts will undermine Russia’s military influence in the long term, potentially derailing the two countries’ strategic partnership in the process.”
