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How Trump’s Trade War on China Affects Central Asia

When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on China and the European Union could have severe consequences not only for Brussels and Beijing, but also for economies around the world. Central Asia is no exception, as it could easily be caught in the crossfire. Although no country in Central Asia sees the United States as its major economic partner, Trump’s trade war with the EU and China is expected to impact all Central Asian nations in one way or another. Their strong economic ties with China and the growing EU presence in the region were once seen as a strategic advantage. Now, it seems to represent a double-edged sword. As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all Central Asian states have sought to strengthen economic relations with Beijing and Brussels. Their partnership with China and the EU has grown through trade and investments. But Washington’s tariffs on Chinese and European goods could result in a reduction in demand for various items in Central Asia. On the other hand, Trump’s tariff policy could give Beijing certain leverage over Washington in the strategically important region. According to Mark Temnycky, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, as a way to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, the Chinese could increase their trade and energy relations with the countries in Central Asia. “This would further accelerate China’s relationship with Central Asia, and it could result in the regional states becoming more dependent on the Chinese for trade. Given the proximity of China to Central Asia, this may also result in the regional nations reducing their trade relations with the European Union as well as with the United States, as they favor Chinese prices,” Temnycky told The Times of Central Asia in an interview. U.S. bilateral trade in the region has never been particularly strong. The exception is Kazakhstan – the region’s largest economy – which is the only country in Central Asia whose trade with the U.S. exceeds one billion dollars. According to official statistics, in 2024 America’s total goods trade with Kazakhstan was estimated at $3.4 billion. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan combined have a lower trade volume with the United States than Kazakhstan. But all that is just a drop in the ocean compared to the $89.4 billion trade China reached with Central Asian in 2023. “Trump’s tariff policy could lead to an even greater Central Asian states’ dependency on China, potentially creating a Chinese monopoly on Central Asian trade and energy. In other words, regional countries would no longer have a diversified economy and market, thus tightening China's control over the area,” Temnycky stressed. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Beijing will, in the long term, benefit from Washington’s tariff policy. According to Tyler Schipper, an economist and Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas, China is “arguably at one of its economically weakest points in the last several decades,” which means that any trade...

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Tokayev and Putin Talk Trade, Their Offices Say

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone on Thursday, a relatively routine occurrence that came at an extraordinary time of growing rifts in the Western alliance and U.S. pressure on Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia. After the call, the offices of Tokayev and Putin made no reference to the rapidly moving events and disruption that U.S. President Donald Trump has triggered since he began his second term in January, instead releasing the kind of statement that their neighboring nations have issued on many other occasions. The two leaders “emphasized the dynamic growth of bilateral relations, built on friendship, good neighborliness, and alliance,” Kazakhstan’s presidential press office said on social media. “The discussion also covered trade and economic collaboration, emphasizing the successful implementation of agreements reached at the highest level.” The Kremlin said they discussed “joint projects in trade, economy, and energy in light of the agreements reached during the Russian President's November 2024 state visit to Kazakhstan.” Still, the call coincided with what appears to be a promising moment for Putin after three years of war in Ukraine and blows to the Russian economy from Western sanctions. The U.S. has suspended intelligence-sharing and military aid to Ukraine, which has relied on U.S. support in its fight against Russian forces. European countries say they will continue to support Ukraine. Tokayev and other Central Asian leaders have looked for balance in their relationships with the various powers. The Kazakh president spoke early in the war about the importance of sovereignty, a remark widely viewed as sympathetic to Ukraine. More recently, Tokayev has said Russia is “militarily invincible” and that negotiations are the only way to end the conflict.

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Dams Threaten Central Asia’s Rare Fish and River Ecosystems

A recent study by the international environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries has identified key river basins in Central Asia critical for biodiversity. However, many of these ecosystems face significant threats due to dam construction and small hydroelectric power plants, which disrupt natural habitats and endanger migratory fish species. Using geographic information system (GIS) technology based on the ArcGIS platform, researchers found that only 12% of Central Asia’s rivers remain in their natural state, supporting rare and endemic fish species. Another 7% of heavily altered freshwater areas are classified as critical habitats for endangered species, including the Amu Darya Shovelnose and Ili Marinka. Endangered Fish and Disrupted Ecosystems “We analyzed more than 50 endemic fish species across five major river basins in Central Asia,” said Eugene Simonov, lead researcher and international coordinator of Rivers Without Boundaries. “Of these, 21 species are now classified as threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Our study also examined the condition of tugai forests, rare floodplain plants, and key water-dependent species such as the Asian otter.” The river network in Central Asia is increasingly fragmented due to dam construction, with the study documenting data on 650 existing and planned dams. As a result, migratory fish species are losing access to their spawning grounds. Some species, such as the Syr Darya false killer whale and Aral salmon, may have already disappeared. Conservation Efforts and Solutions To prevent further environmental damage, experts have developed a GIS-based tool to assess the impact of hydraulic structures on river ecosystems. “This technology can help plan conservation strategies and protect valuable river systems,” said Eugene Egidarev, a GIS specialist at Rivers Without Boundaries. Environmental scientists emphasize the urgent need to protect the remaining intact river sections, where rare fish species still survive. They also call for the preservation of floodplains and riparian ecosystems, which are essential for maintaining biodiversity. Conclusion As hydropower projects expand across Central Asia, balancing energy needs with environmental conservation remains a critical challenge. Experts warn that without stronger protection measures, the region risks losing more of its unique freshwater biodiversity, including species that have existed for millennia.

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Kazakhstan Agrees to Increase Oil Transit Through Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR have agreed to increase the transit of Kazakh oil through the Aktau-Baku-Ceyhan route in 2025. The decision was made during a meeting in Baku between KazMunayGas Chairman Askhat Hasenov and SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, where they reviewed progress on the 2022 oil transportation agreement. At the end of 2024, the volume of Kazakh oil transported through Azerbaijan reached 1.4 million tons. Under the new plan, this figure is set to increase to 1.7 million tons in 2025. The expansion will enhance the transit potential of both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, while boosting Kazakhstan’s access to global energy markets. Focus on Decarbonization and Energy Cooperation During the talks, the two companies also discussed their strategic partnership on decarbonization, which was formalized at the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP-29) in Azerbaijan. The agreement focuses on: Introducing low-carbon technologies in the oil and gas sector. Reducing harmful emissions from energy production. Additionally, discussions covered joint exploration projects, oil and gas production, investment opportunities, and the digitalization of industrial processes. “SOCAR is a key partner of KazMunayGas. Together, we will continue to contribute to global energy security and the stability of hydrocarbon supplies. This partnership will create new transit opportunities through the Caspian region,” said Hasenov. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan’s Broader Cooperation Beyond oil transit, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan recently signed an agreement to construct an underwater fiber-optic communication line across the Caspian Sea. The deal was finalized during Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov’s recent visit to Baku. This project, along with the expanded oil transit, highlights the deepening economic and strategic partnership between the two Caspian nations.

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Central Asia’s AI Pursuit: A Tale of Ambition and Progress

The term “rare earth metals” has become a buzzword in the modern geo-economic lexicon, popularized by U.S. President Donald Trump in contexts where American investments are expected. However, before that, “artificial intelligence” (AI) had already emerged as a global symbol of technological advancement and economic competitiveness. At least four of the five Central Asian republics have joined the race to implement AI technologies, though, until recently, two of them lacked the necessary prerequisites for such a leap. Kazakhstan Sets the Pace A key factor for the successful adoption of AI is the level of digitalization, an area in which Kazakhstan has made significant progress. The country’s digital transformation began with the banking sector and later expanded to public services, with nearly 100% of government services now available online. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this shift, making digital access to state institutions and banks a necessity. Since 2022, when AI became synonymous with technological leadership, exemplified by developments in China and the U.S., Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has actively promoted AI initiatives. In the summer of 2023, the government adopted the Concept for the Development of Artificial Intelligence for 2024-2029. During discussions on this initiative, officials reviewed measures already in place, such as Smart Data Ukimet, a centralized system integrating data from 93 government databases. Plans include deploying a supercomputer, expanding data processing centers, launching a national AI platform, and enhancing fiber-optic networks. Additionally, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education is working on a large language model (LLM) focused on the Kazakh language and cultural heritage. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has set a clear goal: “By 2029, the number of AI-based products should increase fivefold. The share of educational programs related to AI must also expand. We need qualified specialists in this field, and it is crucial to consider the needs of domestic companies, which will have a multiplier effect on the economy.” Bektenov also emphasized the role of the National Center for AI in fostering youth involvement, developing human capital, and promoting AI culture. Furthermore, he instructed the Ministry of Justice to enhance legal frameworks for AI regulation. In December 2024, President Tokayev presented Kazakhstan’s first Kazakh language AI model, KazLLM, expressing satisfaction with its development: “We have taught artificial intelligence to think, analyze, and communicate in Kazakh. This achievement opens new prospects for our language in the digital sphere. We must build a Multimodal Language Model, capable of processing various data types simultaneously.” On March 3, 2025, Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis (lower house of parliament) reviewed a draft law, On Artificial Intelligence. If passed, it will be the world’s second AI law after the European AI Act. Uzbekistan's Ambitious Strategy Uzbekistan, another Central Asian country vying for AI leadership, has similarly prioritized digitalization. However, it lags slightly behind Kazakhstan in implementation speed. On October 14, 2024, Uzbekistan adopted its Strategy for the Development of Artificial Intelligence Technologies Until 2030, which outlines several ambitious targets: Increasing AI-driven software and services to $1.5 billion Expanding AI-powered government services on the Single Portal of...

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U.S. Ends Air Quality Data Sharing from Embassies

The United States has announced it will no longer share air quality data gathered from its diplomatic missions worldwide. This decision has sparked concerns among environmental groups, public health advocates, and nations that rely on this data to track pollution and safeguard public health. For over a decade, U.S. embassies and consulates have provided invaluable air quality data using state-of-the-art equipment to monitor pollutants such as PM2.5, a fine particulate matter with serious health implications at high levels. Updated hourly, this information was readily accessible online, empowering individuals and governments to make informed decisions on managing air pollution risks. The U.S. government has not provided any explanation for this decision. The Times of Central Asia has previously reported on poor air quality across the region sourcing data from U.S. embassies which saw both Tashkent and Bishkek enter the list of the ten worst cities in the world for air pollution, leading to warnings to “avoid outdoor exercise, close your windows, wear a mask outdoors, and run an air purifier.”