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Opinion: China’s Regional Strategy Meets Central Asia’s National Bargains

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway spent decades on the drawing board. Disagreements over its route and financing held it up long after the three governments endorsed the project. In 2024, a Kyrgyz parliamentarian asked railway officials a simple question: “Where will we find $1 billion?” A financing agreement signed in Bishkek on December 16, 2025, cleared a major obstacle. The railway is estimated to cost $4.7 billion. Chinese banks will lend about $2.3 billion to the joint project company over 35 years. China holds 51% of the company, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. The partners will provide the remaining funding as equity. In June 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s parliament approved in the first reading a separate $304.5 million loan from China’s Export-Import Bank to help fund its own contribution. That loan has a 25-year term. The joint company’s debt and Kyrgyzstan’s borrowing for its stake are different obligations, but both affect how much value the country will need to earn from the line. Kyrgyzstan wants business around the railway, including terminals and freight services; Uzbekistan gains a direct rail link toward China, while Beijing gains another route west. The governments agreed to build the line, but tariffs and terminal operations will help decide how the returns are shared. The same division between shared goals and separate deals runs through China’s C+C5 relationship with the five Central Asian states. At the second China-Central Asia summit in Astana in June 2025, the six countries signed a treaty on eternal good-neighborliness. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also published a list of 55 cooperation documents. The first 14 cover the regional China-Central Asia framework. The other 41 involve Chinese institutions and counterparts in individual Central Asian countries, including local authorities and companies. The count reflects how the agreements are organized rather than their financial weight. The regional documents cover road permits, customs procedures and green minerals. The country-specific agreements extend into particular industries and investment relationships. Customs cooperation shows how regional talks can lead to bilateral action. At a meeting on May 21–22, 2025, customs chiefs from China and Central Asia agreed to joint border inspections. The next day, Chinese and Kazakh officials conducted an inspection of Nur Zholy-Khorgos. They agreed to accept more trucks from Kazakhstan and recognize each other’s X-ray inspection images to reduce repeat checks. Kazakhstan’s customs authority explicitly linked the inspection to the regional meeting. The agreement illustrates how governments can address a shared concern through negotiations at an individual crossing. The Astana investment agreements reflected different national priorities. Kazakhstan pursued investment protection and applications for China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system, while Kyrgyzstan signed documents on an AI application center and processing industries. These were country-specific arrangements within the wider regional framework. The railway illustrates why some projects require only a few governments to agree. After recurring disagreements over its route and funding, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan reached a financing settlement in 2025. They did not need all five Central Asian governments to negotiate a single position. Kazakhstan already has direct rail links...

Local Politics Kazakhstan Local Politics

Kazakhstan Military Training Overhauled with New Drone Forces Planned

Less than a month after 14 service members died during military exercises in the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan has approved plans to overhaul conscript training and introduce new safeguards against abuse in the armed forces. The reform plan was approved at a Security Council meeting on October 21, with the main changes scheduled for 2027. The September 24 tragedy prompted an investigation that uncovered serious failures in the planning of the exercises and measures to protect soldiers. A wider inspection of the Defense Ministry has since led to 13 criminal cases involving suspected embezzlement, abuse of authority, and other violations. New Training System Aims to Reduce Abuse Beginning in 2027, Kazakhstan plans to divide its mandatory 12-month military service into two stages. Recruits will spend their first six months at training centers and the remaining six months in military units, where they will continue combat training alongside their assigned formations. The change is intended to help conscripts adjust to military life and reduce the risk of hazing. Political analyst Gaziz Abishev believes that separating initial training from regular military service will make it easier for commanders to monitor abuse. “Amid the chaos of a regular military unit, it's much harder to keep track of abusive behavior by people who are out of control. It will be easier at a training center. Officers will be personally accountable for the safety of conscripts,” he wrote on Telegram. The military also plans to appoint military counselors and an ombudsman for service members. The aim is to give soldiers and their families somewhere to turn when their rights are violated. Askhat Aimagambetov, a member of Kazakhstan's parliament, the Kurultai, welcomed the initiative, citing cases of violations of service members' rights and the difficulties their relatives have faced in seeking justice. “Now service members and their parents will have a direct, legally recognized advocate,” the lawmaker said. A New Drone Force The plan also calls for the establishment of dedicated drone forces and an expansion of the network of specialized military schools.. The move reflects the growing importance of unmanned aircraft in modern warfare, demonstrated particularly by the war in Ukraine, where relatively inexpensive drones have proved capable of destroying far more costly military equipment. Organizational preparations are expected to be completed by the end of 2026, with the main reforms planned for 2027. The wider inspection of the Defense Ministry is also due to be completed by the end of the year. Although preliminary findings have exposed serious failings, the commission's full conclusions have yet to be published. Kazakhstan's Military Capabilities in Central Asia Kazakhstan ranks 58th among 145 countries in the 2026 Global Firepower ranking, behind Uzbekistan, which holds 53rd place. Turkmenistan ranks 78th, Tajikistan 100th, and Kyrgyzstan 109th. According to Global Firepower estimates, Kazakhstan's defense budget for 2026 is approximately $5.84 billion, compared with around $6.21 billion for Uzbekistan.

Local Politics Uzbekistan Local Politics

International Network Launched to Support Childhood Cancer Care in Uzbekistan

An international network to support children with serious and life-threatening illnesses, including cancer, was announced in Samarkand on October 21. The new initiative will bring together first ladies and spouses of heads of state. The network's establishment was announced by Carlos Rodriguez-Galindo, executive vice president of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in the United States and director of St. Jude Global, which works to improve childhood cancer care worldwide. Uzbekistan's First Lady Ziroat Mirziyoyeva was named chair for a two-year term. Participants in the initiative intend to share expertise and help expand children's access to diagnosis, treatment, and quality medical care. The announcement came during the second International Congress on Pediatric Oncology, held on October 21–22 alongside the World Summit on Children's Well-Being. The events brought together representatives from more than 100 countries, international organizations, and the medical community. Summit partners include UNICEF, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the World Bank. Mirziyoyeva also chairs the board of trustees of the Zamin Foundation, which co-hosted a UN event with St. Jude and the WHO in September 2025 aimed at improving survival rates among children with cancer and other serious illnesses. Uzbekistan is already participating in an international program to improve access to childhood cancer treatments. In February 2025, Uzbekistan and Mongolia became the first two countries to receive essential cancer medicines through a WHO–St. Jude initiative. The program aims to provide children in lower-income countries with a reliable supply of quality-assured cancer medicines free of charge. Uzbekistan is also preparing changes to its national cancer care system. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the country plans to reform its oncology services beginning in 2027, while a pediatric palliative care center is planned for the Samarkand region to support children with serious and incurable illnesses.

Business & Economy Kazakhstan Business & Economy Features Kazakhstan Featurees

Kazakhstan Expands Middle Corridor Fleet as Caspian Sea Levels Fall

Containers are piling up on Kazakhstan's Caspian coast as they await shipment to Azerbaijan. A shortage of vessels and weather-related restrictions are delaying cargo along the Middle Corridor, a trade route connecting China and Europe while bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan plans to acquire five vessels and has ordered another six to expand maritime freight capacity. At the same time, falling Caspian Sea levels are limiting how much cargo existing ships can carry and complicating port operations. Yerkin Nygmetov, CEO of KTZ Express Shipping, described the container backlog at the New Silk Way international transport forum, held in Astana on October 15–16. According to Nygmetov, adverse weather conditions can restrict operations at Kazakhstan's ports for a total of up to 75 days a year. Freight Volumes Rise as Vessels Face Delays The Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. From there, cargo continues to Turkey and Europe, including via the Black Sea. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the route attracted increased interest from companies seeking to reduce their dependence on transit through Russia. According to Kazakhstan's national railway company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), container traffic along the Middle Corridor reached 44,200 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January–August 2026, an increase of 58% from a year earlier. A TEU is a standard measure of container capacity equivalent to one 20-foot container, approximately six meters long. During the same period, 419 container trains departed China along the route, compared with 228 a year earlier. The maritime section requires containers to be transferred from trains onto vessels in Kazakhstan and then back onto railcars in Azerbaijan. Waiting for an available ship increases delivery times, particularly during periods of heavy cargo arrivals. The World Bank has assessed the corridor's potential for growth. According to a study published in September, investments in transport infrastructure and better coordination of logistics procedures could more than triple trade volumes along the Trans-Caspian Corridor by 2040 and cut delivery times in half. The bank also projects that implementing the proposed measures could increase the combined GDP of nine countries connected to the route by 3.3% and create two million jobs. Kazakhstan Orders Vessels from China and Azerbaijan KTZ Express Shipping, a subsidiary of KTZ, plans to acquire five container vessels in 2026. Another six multipurpose dry cargo and container ships have been ordered from shipyards in China and Azerbaijan. By 2028, the company aims to expand its own fleet to 13 vessels with a combined deadweight tonnage of 96,000 metric tons. Deadweight tonnage refers to the maximum weight a vessel can carry, including cargo, fuel, supplies, and other variable loads. On October 15, Kazakhstan's Samruk-Kazyna sovereign wealth fund confirmed that two dry cargo vessels would be built at the Baku Shipyard under contracts signed in April 2026. Another four vessels have been ordered from China's Jiangsu Haizhongzhou Shipping Industry. Each is designed to carry up to 537 TEUs, with a deadweight tonnage of 9,900 metric tons. The...

Business & Economy Kyrgyzstan Lead Story Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy Features

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth: Government Targets 8% Annually

Kyrgyzstan has set a target of average annual real GDP growth of at least 8% and a 20% annual increase in foreign direct investment inflows through the end of 2030. Bishkek aims to achieve these goals by developing export-oriented industries, expanding transport routes, and attracting international capital. While recent international forecasts suggest growth could exceed 8% this year, sustaining that pace through 2030 remains a challenge. The government outlined the priorities at a meeting in Bishkek on October 21. Its plans include expanding production of export goods, modernizing trade and customs procedures, strengthening private property protections, and improving businesses' access to long-term financing. Positive Momentum Set to Continue The targets are set out in the National Development Program through 2030, adopted in June 2025. The program calls for nominal GDP to reach at least $30 billion and GDP per capita to rise to $4,500. International forecasts suggest Kyrgyzstan's economy will maintain strong growth in the near term, although a slowdown is expected. Following 11.1% growth in 2025, the IMF forecasts 9% growth in 2026 and 7% in 2027, while the World Bank projects 9.6% growth this year. However, both institutions have highlighted risks to the country's economic momentum, including a potential slowdown in re-export trade, weaker growth in Russia and China, rising energy prices, and tighter sanctions restrictions. To maintain rapid growth, Bishkek intends to support food processing, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, light manufacturing, machinery production, and mineral processing. The goal is to increase exports of domestically produced goods. Infrastructure-led Growth One of the country's largest infrastructure projects remains the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Construction began in December 2024, with completion scheduled for 2030. The project is estimated to cost $4.7 billion, including $2.3 billion in loans from Chinese banks. China holds a 51% stake in the joint project company, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each own 24.5%. The railway is expected to give Kyrgyzstan its first direct rail link to China and provide Uzbekistan with an alternative route to the Chinese market. For Bishkek, it offers an opportunity to generate transit revenue and develop logistics centers. However, the route's commercial viability will depend on freight volumes, tariffs, and the efficiency of border crossings. Another major project is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, which Kyrgyzstan is advancing jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Additional electricity generation capacity is needed, among other purposes, to support industrial expansion. On October 14, Kyrgyzstan's ambassador to Switzerland presented both projects to potential investors in Geneva. Bishkek also plans to encourage state-owned companies to issue Eurobonds, expand long-term financing through state banks, and develop the Tamchy special financial and investment zone to attract international capital. Logistics, information technology, tourism, and financial services have been identified as promising sectors. Risks At the same time, Kyrgyzstan's close economic ties with Russia create additional risks for its banking sector and foreign trade. The IMF has warned that exposure to international sanctions and weaknesses in financial oversight could disrupt banking relationships and cross-border trade. A further challenge is ensuring that major infrastructure projects benefit the wider...

Education International Affairs Kazakhstan International Affairs

Kazakhstan Opens $15 Million Rare Metals Research Center with South Korea

Kazakhstan is seeking to turn more of its mineral wealth into high-value materials for electric vehicles, electronics, and other advanced industries with the opening of a Korean-backed rare-metals research center in Almaty. The center, which opened on October 21, is supported by a five-year funding program worth approximately $15 million. Based at the Institute of Metallurgy and Ore Beneficiation at Satbayev University, the center will develop technologies for processing and refining rare metals. The project is being developed under South Korea's official development assistance program, with the participation of the Korea Institute of Industrial Technology (KITECH) and the Korea National Institute of Rare Metals (KORAM). South Korea has outlined a five-year funding plan worth 19.8 billion won (approximately $15 million) for the Almaty center between 2026 and 2030, including 2 billion won ($1.5 million) for 2026. Kazakhstan has substantial mineral resources, but extracting metals and producing finished materials require different technologies. The most challenging stages involve separating individual elements, purifying them, and producing materials suitable for industrial use. These are the processes the new center will focus on. The research is expected to be tested in cooperation with Kazakh mining and metallurgical companies. According to Satbayev University Rector Meiram Begentayev, research priorities should be determined by the needs of industry. “We expect our industrial partners to take an active role in the center's work. Their specific production challenges will help identify priority areas for research, while joint testing will allow us to prepare scientific developments for implementation in industrial production,” Begentayev said. At the steering committee's first meeting, participants discussed laboratory equipment, specialist training, and cooperation with industrial enterprises. The Almaty center was established as Kazakhstan seeks to develop its own capacity to process critical minerals. The country is holding talks with foreign partners interested in raw materials for batteries, electronics, and energy equipment. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on plans for the Almaty center in July. Kazakhstan has also proposed cooperation with Belgium on rare-earth metals processing. Authorities also plan to establish an internationally accredited laboratory in Astana to analyze mineral samples.