In the latest sign of Central Asian regional cooperation, Kazakhstan has signed a long-term deal to import electricity from Tajikistan. However, that electricity might not reach Kazakhstan anytime soon, as there are some important details that need to be worked out by Tajikistan before supplies can begin.
Kazakhstan’s energy problems
Kazakhstan has been experiencing severe energy deficits for several years now, particularly during winter months. Kazakh Senator Suyindik Aldashev said in late February this year that Kazakhstan would be short some 5.7 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity in 2025, which would be a 46% increase in the country’s electricity deficit compared to 2024.
Kazakhstan was forced to import electricity from Russia during the winter of 2024 to help alleviate energy shortages. These shortages contributed to Kazakhstan’s decision to hold a referendum to approve the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). To date, however, there has been no announcement of which company will build the NPP, so additional electricity from that source could be a decade or more away.
This has led Kazakhstan to explore importing energy resources from its Central Asian neighbors. The head of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov just visited Kazakhstan and met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with Turkmen gas exports to its northern neighbor high on the agenda.
Kazakhstan has been in discussions with Tajikistan about electricity shipments for months, and the agreement was finalized toward the end of April.
Rogun
The source of the electricity Tajikistan intends to export to Kazakhstan is the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) on the Vakhsh River, some 110 kilometers east of the Tajik capital Dushanbe.
The Rogun HPP has a history of controversy. It was conceived in the 1960s when Tajikistan was a Soviet Republic. Construction on the project started in 1976, but not much had been done by the time the USSR collapsed in late 1991, and work ground to halt shortly thereafter.
Russian company RUSAL signed an agreement in 2004 to invest more than $1 billion and finish building Rogun, but disputes over the project led the Tajik government to cancel the contract in 2007. One of the main differences between the two parties was RUSAL’s insistence the dam wall at Rogun be no higher than 285 meters, whereas the Tajik authorities wanted the original height of 335 meters. At 285 meters, the HPP’s output would have been 2400 megawatts (MW), while at 335 meters, the output would be 3600 MW.
Russia’s Inter RAO EES was in talks with Tajikistan about the Rogun project in 2008, but in the end, nothing came from those negotiations.
With no hope of foreign backing, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon started portraying Rogun as a project of national salvation, the key to energy independence. Rahmon’s government called on citizens to help finance construction of the HPP and when public support in the poorest country in Central Asia proved insufficient, citizens were pressured into buying shares in the project.
The government in neighboring Uzbekistan objected to Rogun’s construction, arguing that water supplies from Tajikistan’s rivers to Uzbekistan’s agricultural lands would be severely reduced as the water was diverted to fill the massive reservoir at Rogun. When Tajikistan continued work at Rogun, Uzbekistan halted railway shipments of construction materials from Iran which were headed to Tajikistan.
Uzbekistan eventually dropped its objections. In recent years several parties, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and European Union, have pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in financial assistance to help complete the Rogun project. Even so, the estimated price tag for Rogun continues to rise and some of the latest estimates have the project costing some $6.4 billion to complete.
So far, only two of the six generator units for Rogun have been installed and are operational, and strict power rationing continues to be implemented during the winter months. President Rahmon said in a speech at the end of 2023 that the third 600-MW unit should start operating in 2025, but some forecasts now say it will be 2035 before all six units at Rogun are installed and operating.
The agreement with Kazakhstan specifies the price for Tajik electricity ($0.034 per 1 kWh) but does not mention how much electricity Kazakhstan is hoping to purchase, or exactly when supplies would start.
Rogun is also one of the sources for the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) 1000 project to supply hydropower electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. That project is far behind schedule, but the Taliban said recently that they expect to complete the Afghan section of the power transmission line, the only part still unfinished, by 2026.
The long game
Kazakhstan does need the electricity, and supplies from Tajikistan would be especially welcome as they would target Kazakhstan’s southeast, one of the country’s most populous areas and location of the largest city, Almaty.
The electricity would be shipped through Central Asia’s unified energy grid, another Soviet-era project connecting the then-Central Asian republics to distribute energy by using coal and gas-fired power plants in downstream republics, now countries, during winter, and hydropower from upstream countries during summer. The grid had been abandoned by 2009, but with warming ties among the five Central Asian states in recent years, it has been repaired and put back into operation.
One other attractive feature of the Tajik electricity deal for the Kazakh side is that Kazakhstan will be able to claim carbon credits for the Tajik hydropower it purchases.
The Kazakh-Tajik contract is for 20 years with the possibility of a 10-year extension. That electricity might not reach Kazakhstan soon, but with Kazakhstan’s growing need for additional power, it will no doubt be welcome whenever it finally arrives.