Image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn

Central Asia Has a Problem, and It Is Russia

By Bruce Pannier

The wave of xenophobia targeting Central Asians in Russia that has followed the terrorist March 22 attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall presents many problems for Central Asia, including concerns about what sort of friend Russia really is.

As reports of attacks on Central Asians in Russia multiplied in the last days of March, April saw a flurry of meetings of Central Asian leaders.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Khiva, Uzbekistan on April 4-5. At the same time, the chairman of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council), former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov was in Tajikistan meeting with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov visited Kazakhstan on April 18-19, meanwhile, the same days that Uzbek President Mirziyoyev was in Tajikistan for talks with his counterpart Rahmon.

Reports of their meetings focused on praising fraternal ties and signing bilateral agreements. There was no mention of any discussions about the rapidly unfolding dilemma with Russia.

The people Russia claims staged the attack that left more than 140 people dead are Tajiks, some of whom acquired Russian citizenship, others who were migrant laborers. There are at least four million migrant laborers from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan working in Russia and some estimates put the number at double that figure, or more.

In the wake of the attack, all Central Asians fell under suspicion in Russia. Passengers from Central Asia arriving in Russia were held up at airports for extra document checks, sometimes for more than 24 hours. Russian police raided dormitories and other facilities where Central Asian migrant laborers were known to stay.

The first four Tajik suspects apprehended were shown on Russian television. They had clearly been tortured. An FSB member had cut part of the ear off one of the suspects and fellow FSB troops filmed him forcing the severed piece of ear into the mouth of the suspect.

Russia was a colonizer of Central Asia and the leaders of the five Central Asian countries are well aware of that history. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, whenever Central Asian and Russian officials meet, they speak of historically friendly ties and valued partnerships.

It has often been difficult to make this image credible to Central Asia’s people, particularly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.

Some Russian nationalists, including politicians, have spoken about reclaiming “historic Russian land,” usually mentioning part or all of Kazakhstan.

Chairman of Russia’s Investigative Committee Aleksandr Bastrykin said in May 2023 that military service in Ukraine should be mandatory for migrant laborers seeking Russian citizenship, and State Duma Deputy Mikhail Matveev backed this call, adding, “Where are our Tajik battalions?“

There are many other such examples since February 2022. Both Russian and Central Asian government officials have downplayed these remarks, saying they are the views of an individual and do not reflect the position of the Russian government.

However, In January 2024, Deputy Speaker of Uzbekistan’s lower house of parliament Alisher Qodirov questioned why, if these were not the Russian government’s views, were such comments allowed to continue.

Qodirov was responding to comments from Russian nationalist politician Zakhar Prilepin, who told a Moscow press conference in December 2023 that Russia should annex Uzbekistan since two million Uzbek citizens were working in Russia; and also to remarks a month later from Russian historian Mikhail Smolin who appeared on Russia’s NTV channel and said Uzbeks (and Kazakhs and Azerbaijanis) did not exist as a people prior to the Bolshevik Revolution.

“It seems,” Qodirov said, “[the Russian authorities] are interested in such rhetoric.”

That was prior to the Crocus City Hall attack, and if it was previously possible to ascribe racist remarks to a select group of Russians, since the attack reports of average Russians attacking Central Asians have become frequent.

One video purportedly shows a Tajik schoolgirl being beaten in a classroom by Russian boys as their teachers looks on and does nothing to stop it.

A Kyrgyz woman named Ayperi Zhumaaly kyzy recounted how in Moscow, a Russian man she did not know kicked her, hit her in the face, and told her, “You’re all terrorists. You should not be in Russia. Get out of here!”

In another video, a group of young Russian males in the Moscow metro scream at a girl from Yakutia, an area of northeastern Siberia that has been part of Russia since the 17th Century, that Russia is for Russians.

Russian officials do not seem interested in calling on the country’s people to stop these attacks, and the Russian police have not been active in apprehending any of the attackers.

People in Central Asia see these social networks posts and likely hear many more such stories from friends and relatives working in Russia.

There is no way to hide what’s happening in Russia from the Central Asian people and no way to attribute such acts to an isolated few people in Russia. That does not mean all, or even most Russians feel or act this way, but the people responsible for these attacks are ordinary Russian citizens and they do not seem to face any repercussions for their actions.

This must have been a topic of private discussions during these meetings of the Central Asian leaders. They have to publicly tell their people Russia is an ally, a partner, and a friend. The big question now is, does anyone, including the Central Asian leaders, still believe this to be true?

 

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. He currently appears regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL.

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Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Export Green Power to Europe

On 1 May , Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan’s ministers of energy gathered in Tashkent to sign a memorandum of cooperation aimed at connecting their countries’ energy systems.

The focus of the initiative is to explore means of connecting energy systems via a high-voltage cable embedded in the Caspian Sea to enable further export of green energy from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to European Union countries.

Referencing the parties’ earlier draft technical specification for the deep-sea cable, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy Almasadam Satkaliev stated, “A proposed business model will be prepared for the development of international transmission corridors – financing, revenue, ownership – and the sale of green energy to European Union countries.”

Meanwhile, Asiaplustj.info reports that Tajikistan is still not being envisioned as a part of the system. As that publication notes, Uzbekistan’s energy system currently operates in parallel with the energy systems of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan within the framework of the United Energy System of Central Asia (UES CA), which was created under the Soviet Union.

This system was abandoned by Turkmenistan in 2003 because Uzbekistan refused to allow transit of Turkmen-produced electricity through its infrastructure.

“In November 2009, after a major accident in Tajikistan’s energy system, Uzbekistan unilaterally left the UES CA, which automatically left Tajikistan out of this system as well. In 2018, Uzbekistan restored parallel operation within the regional system. Since 2019, with financial support from the Asian Development Bank, work has been underway to bring Tajikistan back into the unified energy ring of Central Asia. The Ministry of Energy of Tajikistan last summer reported on its intentions… to join the regional system by the end of 2023. but this has not happened so far,” the report noted.

 

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Painted scenes of former shops adorn the blown-out ground-floor windows in Shushi/Shusha prior to the 2020 war; photo: TCA

Kazakhstan Says It’s Ready to Host Azerbaijan-Armenia Talks; No Date Announced

Kazakhstan’s president said on Wednesday that he hopes planned talks in Almaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia will lead to a lasting peace in the South Caucasus, though he did not provide a date for the negotiations.

“I welcome the agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia to hold talks at the Foreign Ministers’ level on the preparation of a peace treaty between the two states, at the suggestion of the Kazakh side,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in a statement. He said he hoped the upcoming meeting would help with the “practical implementation” of agreements between the two sides.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in tension and conflict over territory since the 1990s, though the two sides have been working to delineate their borders following Azerbaijan’s retaking of control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region last year.

Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said this week that Kazakhstan is supporting the talks but will not act as mediator, according to reports in Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“The upcoming negotiations will be held exclusively between the parties,” Armenian radio quoted Smadiyarov as saying. “We are not talking about Astana’s mediation, we are only providing goodwill services, the so-called good offices.”

Kazakhstan benefits economically from stability in the Caucasus because it exports oil through Azerbaijan. In March, Azerbaijan’s energy minister met his counterpart in Kazakhstan to discuss boosting Kazakh oil flows via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

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Image: Czech Police official website

Czech Authorities Suspend Investigation of 2014 Explosions; One Suspect Allegedly Posed as a Tajik Citizen

The Czech Republic has suspended an investigation of ammunition depot explosions in 2014 that it blames on Russian military intelligence, including an agent who allegedly used a Tajik passport during the operation.

Two Czech citizens died in the first of two explosions at warehouses in the village of Vrbětice, an alleged act of sabotage that led to years of unexploded ordnance cleanup, an international investigation and Russian denials of involvement, and a tit-for-tat expulsion of Russian and Czech diplomats from each other’s countries. Tajikistan was pulled into the case in 2021 when Czech investigators said they were looking for two suspects who used Russian passports, and then used different identities under Tajik and Moldovan passports.

At the time, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs said it had not issued a passport to a person matching the reported name and birthday of the suspect. Reports said the suspects had posed as potential arms buyers from the National Guard of Tajikistan, though an analysis by a group of media organizations said it was unclear whether that particular ruse enabled them to get onto the ammunition storage sites.

Czech law enforcement halted the probe into the Vrbětice blasts because the suspects are in Russia, which is not cooperating, said Col. Jiří Mazánek, head of the organized crime division of the police. He said in a statement on Monday that all other avenues of investigation in the Czech Republic, and in countries that have cooperated with requests for help, “have been exhausted.”

Therefore, Mazánek said, additional information that would allow a criminal prosecution to move forward can’t be obtained for now. Evidence indicates that the explosions were “part of a long-term diversionary operation by Russian military intelligence on the territory of the European Union and Ukraine,” the police official said, blaming members of the Russian agency GRU whose alleged aim was to prevent the delivery of weapons and ammunition to areas where the Russian Army was operating.

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and fighting erupted in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists, in a prelude to Russia’s invasion in 2022 and the ongoing war today.

Russia denied it was responsible for the Vrbětice explosions and noted media reports that the ammunition depots were controlled not by the Czech government, but by a private company owned by a Bulgarian citizen.

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hydrogeology water source

Kazakhstan Engages Hydrogeology to Address Water Issues

On 30 April, a government resolution was signed by the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov for the establishment of a national hydrogeological service under the name of Kazhydrogeology.

Increasingly used worldwide, hydrogeology records movement and storage of water in the crust of the Earth, maps and quantifies water stored in underground ‘acquifiers’, identifies pathways of flow and discharge, and assesses the chemical composition of underground water.

Kazhydrogeology  is tasked with making a full inventory of the country’s  groundwater deposits and water intake wells  to create an extensive database of 4,300 explored groundwater areas and in addition, provide comprehensive digitalization of the hydrogeological industry through the introduction of an automated groundwater monitoring system.

Prospecting and exploration work will be undertaken to increase the volume of available underground water resources in regions where water is scarce,  to optimize provision for the general population, the economic sector, and irrigation.

The new agency also plans to explore the use of geothermal groundwater, as an alternative  source of energy, to meet the needs of thermal power engineering, greenhouses, and fish farms.

 

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Uzbekistan Raises Its Poverty Line Due to Increases in Gas, Electricity Prices

Uzbekistan has updated its minimal poverty-defining level of consumer spending for the population to $51 from $48.9 dollars per month. This is already the second increase in the indicator since the beginning of the year, which is explained by rising gas and electricity prices.

Minimum consumer spending is calculated in Uzbekistan based on the daily neds of citizens on means spent on food and non-food products and services. According to Picodi.com, Uzbekistan is among the top ten countries with the highest spending on food, with citizens spend 46.5% of their earnings on edibles.

Overall, annual food inflation in the country reached one of its lowest levels in recent years in 2023, totaling 9.7% annually. In March 2024, food inflation contracted even more, to 7.8% annually, according to international data portal, Trading Economics.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms says that the country managed to lift more than a million Uzbeks out of poverty in 2023. This was due to higher wages, social payments, benefits, and increases in income from agriculture.

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