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Foreign Policy

Opinion: Turning Rivalry into Opportunity: Kazakhstan’s Strategic Autonomy

Over the past decade, global geopolitics has witnessed a clear return to Great Power competition, reviving elements of Cold War-style rivalry and a pronounced East-West divide. Yet, contrary to the belief that international relations are defined exclusively by great powers, the countries of Central Asia, historically perceived as chess pieces between Moscow, Washington, and Beijing, have been exercising their own autonomy and asserting independent foreign policy paths. Kazakhstan, the region’s largest and most resilient economy, has arguably emerged as a leading example of this movement. Through a careful balancing strategy, Kazakhstan has worked to avoid firmly aligning itself with any one geopolitical camp. Rather than choosing sides, it has chosen options. However, when pressure from one power arises, Astana’s response has rarely been resistance for its own sake, but rather negotiation and taking advantage of the opportunities that power can offer it. Essentially, if alignment is expected, it comes at a price. In this sense, great-power competition is treated less as an existential threat and more as a marketplace – one in which influence is traded. However, the question is, is there space for both Beijing and Washington? In this context, there is much to examine regarding last week’s B5+1 forum in Bishkek. Bringing together government officials and private sector representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the United States, the forum aimed to deepen economic ties and explore investment opportunities. Among the attendees was Sergio Gor, the U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia. Perhaps the B5+1 forum is not just a routine investment event; it’s a signal from the U.S. to China. A cornerstone of the cooperation between the U.S. and Kazakhstan was illustrated by the creation of a partnership in rare metals. The Ulba Metallurgical Plant (UMP) is located in north-eastern Kazakhstan. UMP is one of the very few facilities worldwide capable of carrying out the full processing cycle for rare metals. What elevates this cooperation beyond conventional trade is UMP’s production of materials such as beryllium and tantalum. These materials are critical inputs for the defense industry supplied to major aerospace and defense contractors, including Boeing and Lockheed Martin, both of which conduct business with the U.S. Department of Defense. Thus, Kazakhstan’s contribution to the U.S. defense supply chains signals a broader shift in regional geopolitics. By enabling access to strategically important resources that underpin advanced military technologies, Astana is strengthening its economic alignment with Washington, while subtly influencing the broader balance of defense capabilities between Western and Eastern powers. Furthermore, another one of the headline-making deals at the B5+1 forum was the announcement of a joint venture between U.S.-based Cove Capital LLC and Kazakhstan’s National Mining Company to develop the world’s largest known undeveloped tungsten resource. This deal is significant against the backdrop of the ongoing tug-of-war between Beijing and Washington over strategic natural resources, and analysts note that the U.S. and China are already competing for Kazakhstan’s tungsten – another material crucial in the defence and microelectronics industries. China presently controls nearly...

Neutrality

Turkmenistan Marks 30 Years of Neutrality

On December 12, 2025, Turkmenistan marks the 30th anniversary of a UN decision granting Turkmenistan the status of a neutral country. Defining what “permanent neutrality” means for Turkmenistan is impossible, as it is a flexible term used to justify a range of policies, both domestic and foreign. This vague special status has not provided many benefits, but has helped Turkmenistan’s leadership isolate the country and create one of the most bizarre and repressive forms of government in the world today. Last Item on the Day’s Agenda On Tuesday, December 12, 1995, the UN General Assembly’s (UNGA) 90th plenary meeting reconvened at 15:20 to consider items 57 to 81 on its agenda. Item 81 was the draft resolution on “permanent neutrality of Turkmenistan.” The UNGA president at that time, Freitas do Amaral, noted to the Assembly that the draft resolution “was adopted by the First Committee without a vote,” and asked if the Assembly wished “to do likewise.” The Assembly did, and after a few brief remarks about the next Assembly meeting on December 14, the session ended at 18:05. That is how the UN officially granted Turkmenistan the status of neutrality. A Great Event The passing of the resolution on Turkmenistan’s neutrality status might have been a case of going through the motions at the UN, but it was a huge event in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan’s first president, Saparmurat Niyazov, had been campaigning internationally for his country to have “positive” neutrality status since 1992. After this was accomplished, Niyazov often proclaimed this special UN recognition as a great achievement for the country and for himself personally. [caption id="attachment_40725" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Ashgabat’s Independence Square, previously known as Neutrality Square and originally as Karl Marx Square; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] December 12 was quickly announced as a national holiday. On the first anniversary of the UN decision in 1996, the former Karl Marx Square in Ashgabat was renamed “Neutrality Square.” Shortly after, an olive branch motif was added to Turkmenistan’s national flag, symbolizing the country’s neutral status. In 1998, on the third anniversary of UN-recognized neutrality, the 75-meter-high Arch of Neutrality was unveiled in Ashgabat. A 12-meter gold statue of Niyazov that rotated to face the direction of the sun crowned the structure. Niyazov died in December 2006, and in 2010, the Arch of Neutrality was moved from the city center to the outskirts of the Turkmen capital and unveiled again on December 12, 2011. It has been undergoing renovation and will be unveiled yet again on the 30th anniversary of neutrality. [caption id="attachment_40726" align="aligncenter" width="2099"] Former-President Niyazov's likeness atop the Arch of Neutrality; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] In 2002, Niyazov pushed through a law changing the names of the months of the year and days of the week. December became “Bitaraplyk,” the Turkmen word for neutrality, and continued to officially be called that until 2008, when Niyazov’s successor finally revoked the changes and restored the traditional names. That successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, embraced the special permanent neutrality status and, in...

Geopolitics

Central Asia’s Road to the Southern Seas: A Search for Stability

India has confirmed that it received a six-month sanctions waiver from the United States for its involvement in developing Iran’s Chabahar port. According to The Times of India, the decision followed intensive diplomacy by New Delhi, which convinced Washington that Chabahar provides India’s only practical overland access to Central Asia that avoids Pakistan. Through Chabahar, India is building a land-based counterpart to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, creating an alternative axis linking the Indian Ocean with Eurasia while bypassing Islamabad and Beijing. The exemption, valid until April 2026, gives India room to negotiate with Washington. For Central Asia, the episode reflects a broader challenge: choosing viable routes to the southern seas. Current debates about “Afghan transit” focus largely on the Trans-Afghan Railway and the so-called Kabul corridor connecting northern Afghanistan with Pakistan’s ports. Yet Afghanistan’s transport network is forming along multiple lines. Alongside the eastern route, a western corridor from Herat to Kandahar and Spin Boldak is also developing, offering access both to Pakistan and to Chabahar. The integration of western Afghanistan’s infrastructure with Iran’s transport network makes this corridor more reliable under today’s political and security conditions. It aligns with projects pursued by Iran, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan and positions Herat as a major hub. It is also close to the North–South Transport Corridor, the Lapis Lazuli and Middle Corridors, and the Caspian and Persian Gulf regions. The planned Mazar-i-Sharif–Herat line fits the logic of the Five Nations Railway Corridor, potentially giving Tajikistan and Uzbekistan access to Chabahar and, if stability improves, to Pakistan’s ports as well. By contrast, the eastern route will remain constrained by the unstable Afghan–Pakistani border and the volatile relationship between Kabul and Islamabad. Afghanistan’s own priorities also differ from outside assumptions: the Herat–Kandahar–Spin Boldak line primarily serves as an internal transport spine linking the west and south. For Kabul, the route to Gwadar is more a political gesture than a practical goal. Some analysts note that developing the western corridor also helps rebalance the country’s economic geography toward its more diverse western regions. These dynamics strengthen the western route’s appeal. The Taliban leadership has even urged Afghan businesses to reduce reliance on Pakistani ports, signaling a structural shift in trade orientation. Both Chabahar and Gwadar face political risks. Pakistan’s transit routes pass through areas affected by insurgency, including Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as the broader narcotics routes of the Golden Crescent. The greatest uncertainty remains the fluctuating relationship between Kabul and Islamabad. Gwadar, while technologically superior, is undermined by chronic instability. Chabahar’s capacity is more modest, but its integration with Iran’s road and rail network provides reliability. The United States adds another layer of complexity. The waiver suggests Washington is balancing its Iran sanctions regime with its strategic partnership with India. The United States is not directly involved in regional infrastructure but retains enough influence to shift the balance between the western and eastern routes. Under certain conditions, Gwadar may appear less problematic for Washington than Chabahar. At the same time, selective sanctions exemptions...

C5+1 Summit

U.S. Envoys Hail Stronger Kazakhstan Partnership Ahead of C5+1 Summit

On October 29, Unites States Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau concluded their visit to Kazakhstan ahead of the upcoming C5+1 summit in Washington. During their trip, the U.S. envoys met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and held discussions with representatives of Kazakhstan’s government and business community, which they described as highly productive. “We are concluding a memorable trip to Kazakhstan in the beautiful capital, Astana, which did not even exist 30 years ago and now boasts a population of more than 1.5 million,” Landau posted on social media. He also stated that bilateral relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan “have never been so strong” and expressed gratitude for the hospitality. Gor and Landau held talks with Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and key cabinet members, including Minister of Trade and Integration Arman Shakkaliev, Minister of Energy Yerlan Akkenzhenov, Minister of Transport Nurlan Sauranbayev, and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, to discuss Kazakhstan’s economic priorities and areas for expanding bilateral cooperation. According to the Kazakh government, the talks focused on expanding trade and investment cooperation between the two countries. Priority areas included transport and logistics, energy, agriculture, the digital economy, and artificial intelligence. During their visit, the U.S. envoys also met with Deputy Prime Minister Murat Nurtleu, who reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s readiness to cooperate on sustainable development and energy security. The meetings demonstrated Kazakhstan’s active engagement with the United States in the lead-up to the upcoming Central Asia–U.S. summit. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, who highlighted Kazakhstan’s economic strengths during talks with Gor and Landau, had recently returned from a high-level visit to the United States. His delegation, which included Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Erbolat Dossaev and Chairperson of the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market Madina Abylkasymova, held meetings in New York and Washington with American business leaders and members of Congress. During the visit, the Kazakh delegation presented the country’s economic growth strategy, highlighted ongoing GDP expansion, and discussed the potential listing of government securities on the New York Stock Exchange. They also raised the possible repeal of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment, a long-standing priority for Kazakhstan’s diplomatic agenda. Against this backdrop, the White House’s decision to convene a summit between President Donald Trump and the leaders of the Central Asian republics may partly reflect Kazakhstan’s sustained diplomatic outreach. In that context, Gor and Landau’s remarks of appreciation as they departed Astana underscored recognition of Kazakhstan’s role in shaping this evolving partnership.

Astana Think Tank Forum

Kazakhstan Proposes ‘Expert Alliance’ to Reform Global Governance

Zhandos Shaimardanov, director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS) under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, has called for the formation of an international network of think tanks to act as an intellectual capacity for reforming the global governance architecture. He said the proposal stems from lessons learned in regional cooperation efforts across Central Asia. Speaking at the session “Central Asia in the Changing Architecture of Global Security: Challenges and Opportunities” during the Astana Think Tank Forum 2025, Shaimardanov said the world is experiencing a period of geopolitical flux. The old global rules no longer function effectively, while new norms have yet to take shape. “History is giving our region a chance to show leadership,” he said. “Central Asia is realizing its agency and unity, ready to formulate collective responses to global challenges and offer a positive agenda. Trust and mutual respect have made us resilient, and now this political capital must be transformed into institutional resources.” Shaimardanov stressed that the existing global security architecture is in crisis, with mechanisms such as the UN Security Council and arms control frameworks losing effectiveness. “In September, at the UN General Assembly, the President of Kazakhstan rightly observed that serious violations of international law have become the new norm. This is a sign that global institutions need intellectual renewal. When multilateral mechanisms fail, it is the regions that retain the potential for agreement,” he said. From Regional Unity to Global Contribution Shaimardanov recalled that at the sixth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, held in Astana last August, regional leaders adopted the "Central Asia 2040" concept, which sets out a long-term vision for cooperation across the region. “Now is the time not just to implement this document without slogans,” he said, “but to present this regional experience to the broader world.” He said that Central Asia’s cooperative model could help redefine the principles of global governance. As a bloc of “middle powers,” the region can offer a constructive and non-hegemonic voice. “In this context, Kazakhstan proposes creating an expert alliance of middle powers, a global network of think tanks and institutions that could help rethink international systems,” Shaimardanov said. He suggested that such a body could cooperate with international organizations, including the United Nations, to develop joint strategies on security, sustainable development, and institutional accountability. “Central Asia can not only adapt to new realities but also offer new ideas that security can be built not on fear but on trust,” he said. Focus Areas: Digital Trust, Water Security, Human Capital Shaimardanov noted that an expert network would help Central Asian countries coordinate on key development challenges, including digitalization, water management, and innovation. He highlighted the example of Kazakh startup Higgsfield AI, which recently achieved unicorn status with a valuation exceeding $1 billion. The company developed a generative AI tool that creates videos from text prompts. “This is a major milestone not only for Kazakhstan but for the entire region,” he said. “It reflects Central Asia’s growing...

RFE/RL

Opinion: What the Loss of RFE/RL Would Mean for Central Asia

The decision to terminate the federal grant agreement funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) is a crushing blow for hundreds of millions of people. These people know their governments are not telling them the full truth about what is happening in their countries or in the world outside. The objective information provided by RFE/RL has been important to people such as these. Perhaps as important, since the end of the Cold War, was the platform RFE/RL provides, whenever possible, for people in these countries to explain their views to the outside world. I know, because I worked at RFE/RL for 25 years covering Central Asia. RFE/RL was founded in 1950, and I didn’t show up there until 1997. I can only speak about what I saw and heard when I was an RFE/RL employee. My understanding of my tasks as an RFE/RL employee was that we were supposed to keep close track of what was happening in Central Asia, cover as many of the important topics of the region as possible, and make objective and accurate information on these topics available to the people in Central Asia. During Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war, for example, RFE/RL’s Tajik service, Radio Ozodi, was the most trusted source of information for the people of Tajikistan. During the Coronavirus pandemic, the Turkmen government would not even allow the word COVID to be spoken and denied there were any cases of the virus in the country, leaving RFE/RL’s Turkmen service, Azatlyk, as one of the only sources of information for Turkmenistan’s people about the illness. I lived in Central Asia before joining RFE/RL, so I had some idea of what was important to people there. Calling for respect for fundamental rights is a big part of RFE/RL’s work. Read the constitutions of any Central Asian country and you will see enshrined there the right to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, the right to freely receive or disseminate information, and much more. In practice, these rights are not always observed in Central Asia. In such a situations RFE/RL’s Central Asian services are a voice for those who, with good reason, are afraid to speak out publicly, or more importantly, for those who did speak out and are punished for that. At RFE/RL we looked for “impact stories,” testimony from people of the region about unfulfilled government promises, abuses, or state mismanagement that were hurting communities and individuals. Central Asian government officials are among the most faithful RFE/RL listeners, and often RFE/RL reports that raised social issues led officials to rectify the situation. Ramshackle buildings or schools were suddenly repaired, electricity or running water became accessible to city districts and rural areas, sufficient food became available to communities. The pleas of average citizens too often fell on deaf ears in government halls, but the criticism of an international organization such as RFE/RL, which was broadcasting to the entire country and Central Asian region, was too embarrassing for officials to ignore. This made RFE/RL unpopular with Central...