Middle Powers - The Times Of Central Asia

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How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Anchor a Strategic Middle-Power Hub in Central Asia

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are driving Central Asia’s global significance. Together, they are turning Central Asia into a strategic middle-power hub. The two countries increasingly act as central nodes in a region key to global supply chains and, inevitably, geopolitical competition. However, they are not merely reactive to changes around them, but are highly dynamic. What does it mean to say that the region is emerging as a strategic middle-power "hub"? The notion of a hub extends beyond the national profiles of the two principals, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, to include the aggregation of collective influence. Central Asia is recognized as a cohesive entity in global forums. Kazakhstan’s energy wealth combines with Uzbekistan’s demographic strength, creating an influential synergy beneficial to the entire region. The interplay between their respective strengths allows them to amplify Central Asia’s voice in international institutions and negotiations collectively. By integrating their regional strategies within global frameworks — such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) — Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan enhance the region’s geopolitical relevance. Kazakhstan, for example, has successfully advocated for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, also called the "Middle Corridor"). This transcontinental trade route is emerging as a lynchpin in Eurasian logistics, connecting China to Europe via the Caspian Sea. Uzbekistan, for its part, has emphasized the integration of transport and energy infrastructure. These initiatives align with the broader vision of a unified Central Asia. The leadership of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan has reinforced the region's collective identity as the "C5" group, also including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. This regional bloc has become a diplomatic focal point for major powers like the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. All of them engage with Central Asia through structured consultations within the C5 framework. These meetings have given the region traction in international diplomacy. The elevation of the C5 group reflects the region's new prominence. The United States engages with the C5 on issues ranging from regional security to sustainable development, emphasizing its commitment to a secure and prosperous Central Asia. China’s cooperation under the C5+1 mechanism complements its transcontinental infrastructure initiatives. Germany focuses on sustainable energy and governance, while Japan prioritizes infrastructure and technology transfers. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan together have over two-thirds of the region's gross domestic product and two-thirds of its population. Kazakhstan's vast natural resources undergird its economic influence, while its geographic expanse (as the ninth-largest country in the world) makes it central to major connectivity initiatives. Through President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's nuanced foreign policy, Kazakhstan has adeptly balanced relationships with major powers, ensuring that it remains a key partner for Russia, China, and the European Union. Uzbekistan has surged to prominence through its ambitious domestic reforms and proactive engagement for regional cooperation under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has implemented market liberalization measures attracting foreign investment and reinvigorating its economy. As the most populous country in Central Asia, Uzbekistan is an indispensable actor in regional affairs....

Global Diplomacy Foreign Affairs Middle Powers UK Multi-vector Foreign Policy Bilateral Relations Diplomacy

British Think Tank: Kazakhstan is a Key Strategic Partner for the UK

On December 10, the British think tank the Henry Jackson Society presented its research report, “Understanding Kazakhstan’s Strategic Importance: A Middle Power Partner for the UK in Central Asia,” in the UK Parliament. The event was attended by members of both houses of the British Parliament and featured speeches by prominent figures, including Nusrat Ghani MP, Principal Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons; Magzhan Ilyassov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to the United Kingdom; Darren Spinck, the report’s author and associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society; Ekaterina Miroshnik, Director for Eurasia Infrastructure at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); and Enzo Satkuru-Granzella, business analyst at the UK Critical Minerals Association. Exploring Kazakhstan’s Strategic Role Darren Spinck emphasized that the report examines Kazakhstan’s evolving role as a middle power on the international stage, highlighting its advancements in political reforms and sustainable economic development. It also explores opportunities for enhancing trade and investment between the UK and Kazakhstan, particularly in critical minerals and transit-transport routes. The report includes recommendations for the British Government and Parliament to strengthen this partnership. Nusrat Ghani MP shared her personal efforts to deepen UK-Kazakh relations during her time as Business and Trade Minister (2022–2024) and Minister of State at the Foreign Office (2024). She expressed confidence that the report would provide members of Parliament with valuable insights into Kazakhstan’s importance as a global actor and as a key partner for the UK in Central Asia. Kazakhstan’s Global Diplomacy and Strategic Partnerships Ambassador Magzhan Ilyassov highlighted Kazakhstan’s balanced, multi-vector foreign policy, which aims to safeguard national interests while promoting global security and dialogue. He provided updates on Kazakhstan’s international initiatives, including efforts on nuclear non-proliferation, the proposal to establish an International Agency for Biological Safety (IABS), and the creation of a UN Regional Hub for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Ekaterina Miroshnik from the EBRD underscored Kazakhstan’s role in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. This trade route connects China with Europe and strengthens economic ties between Europe, Central Asia, and China. She highlighted the EBRD’s involvement in Middle Corridor projects, which are key to improving regional trade infrastructure. Enzo Satkuru-Granzella of the UK Critical Minerals Association noted Kazakhstan’s vast potential to contribute to the global supply chain of critical minerals. With its rich resource base, well-developed infrastructure, and skilled workforce, Kazakhstan is poised for long-term collaboration. He pointed to the Roadmap on critical minerals, signed between Kazakhstan and the UK in March 2024, as a solid foundation for mutual cooperation. Strengthening Bilateral Relations Participants at the event acknowledged Kazakhstan’s increasing geostrategic importance as a middle power and explored new avenues for strengthening ties between the two nations. A significant milestone in the bilateral relationship was the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, signed by Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu and the UK’s David Cameron in Astana on April 24, 2024. Great Britain remains one of Kazakhstan’s top foreign investors. Since 2005, the UK has invested...

Diplomacy USA negotiations Middle Powers Trump Geopolitics Foreign Affairs Foreign Policy Mediation

Kazakhstan’s Middle Power Strategy Captures U.S. Focus in Trump-Tokayev Talks

On December 5, a telephone conversation took place between Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. According to Akorda, the official residence of the Kazakh president, Tokayev congratulated Trump on his election and both leaders expressed a commitment to strengthening their strategic partnership in trade, investment, and nuclear non-proliferation. They also agreed to maintain regular contact to sustain the momentum of bilateral cooperation. Kazakhstan as a Mediator This brief but significant interaction has fueled speculation that Trump may view Kazakhstan as a potential mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. International expert Arkady Dubnov has suggested that Astana could become a platform for dialogue involving Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky, or other high level representatives. This aligns with Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts to promote mediation and its firm belief that the ongoing conflict can only be resolved at the negotiating table. Tokayev and the Role of Middle Powers Under Tokayev’s leadership, Kazakhstan has consolidated its status as a “Middle Power.” The term gained prominence in May during Tokayev’s Singapore Lecture, part of a prestigious series organized by the Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). In his speech, “Kazakhstan and the Role of Middle Powers: Promoting Security, Stability, and Sustainable Development,” Tokayev emphasized the risks of global polarization and the need for middle powers to act against a new Cold War. Tokayev revisited this concept in an article for the French newspaper Figaro, highlighting the growing influence of middle powers amidst the deadlock faced by global superpowers, such as the United States and China. Tokayev wrote, “The economic and political importance of these countries is growing, and their balanced and constructive position is becoming an advantage in the face of global uncertainty.” At the Astana Think Tank Forum in October, Tokayev reiterated this idea, calling for the reform of the UN Security Council to amplify the voices of regional and middle powers. “The Security Council is in a deadlock, and we need to find a way out,” Tokayev stated. Trump's Strategy Trump’s outreach to Tokayev appears to validate these concepts. Following his election, Trump has engaged with the leaders of regional and middle powers, including India, Israel, Canada, and South Korea, signaling a possible strategy to build a coalition of such nations for his proposed reforms to the global security architecture. Kazakhstan's balanced and constructive foreign policy, combined with its emphasis on multilateralism, positions it as an effective interlocutor in global conflicts. Tokayev’s vision of middle powers as mediators may prove instrumental in shaping a more inclusive and cooperative international order.

International Diplomacy Global Diplomacy Think tanks International Relations Middle Powers Astana International Forum

Middle Powers Rising: Shaping a Balanced Global Order at the Astana Think Tank Forum

On October 16-17, the capital of Kazakhstan hosted the Astana Think Tank International Forum. The theme of the two-day meeting was “Middle Powers in the Changing Global Order: Strengthening Security, Stability and Sustainable Development.” Experts from 22 countries — heads of leading think tanks, politicians and diplomats — participated and spoke at the event. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the forum. The two-day event focused on geopolitical, economic and strategic issues, including the role of mediating countries in resolving global conflicts. One of the main topics was determining the potential of intermediate states in forming a new world system under conditions of geopolitical tension. The experts tried to define the term "middle power" and what countries can be classified as middle powers. The moderator of the key session, Charles McLean, Managing Director of Borderless Consulting Group, invited the participants to answer several questions about the criteria, characteristics, and influence of middle powers in the modern geopolitical context. Dino Patti Djalal, Chair of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI), suggested categorizing all the of the world's states using analogies to boxing weight classes: heavyweights, middleweights, and lightweights. According to Djalal, middle powers have great potential to create a new world order. “There are several dimensions of middle powers. The first is potential, encompassing territorial and demographic size factors, political and economic weight, and a state's foreign policy ambitions. The second dimension is a moderate stance on major global issues,” Djalal said. Citing Kazakhstan as an example of a middle power, Djalal stated that Kazakhstan has achieved this status due to its balanced position, which allows it to exert some influence on the formation of the world order. Djalal emphasized that, even today, middle states (the bulk of which are concentrated in the Global South) can solve regional issues without the participation of so-called 'world powers'. “Look at Southeast Asia. Indonesia and Singapore solve their issues directly, without external influence. Naturally, this situation is developing in the conditions of weakening U.S. influence. Middle powers are dictating new rules,” Djalal noted, and should voice their positions on the global agenda, so their “voice” will be heard and become more “powerful.” Michel Duclos, Special Advisor on Geopolitics, suggested that regional powers whose activities have a global impact should be considered middle powers. “The great challenge for middle powers is establishing peace and stabilizing the situation. However, a common platform for all middle powers must be formed. This applies to the Global South and the Global North. France and others are reforming the UN Security Council,” Duclos stated. Joshua Lincoln from the Center for International Law and Governance at the Fletcher School (Tufts University), meanwhile, believes that increasing competition between great powers opens a “window of opportunity” for medium-sized states. “Geopolitical rivalries, the fragmentation of the world order, and the disillusionment of many with existing international institutions offer middle powers an opportunity to bring order to today's chaos. Their stance can enormously contribute to the world's security, stability, and sustainability. However, no country, even...

Middle Powers Multi-vector Foreign Policy

Kazakhstan as an Emerging Middle Power

Earlier this year, the Paris-based Institut Montaigne and the Berlin-based Institute of Security and International Affairs separately published studies identifying Kazakhstan as a significant "middle power". They correctly make the case that Kazakhstan, leveraging its vast natural resources, particularly in energy, and a multi-vector foreign policy, has positioned itself as a key player in regional and global affairs. A middle power is a state wielding significant regional influence and influencing international affairs through diplomacy, economic strength, and strategic alliances, but which is not a superpower. With relatively stable political systems, growing economies, and proactive foreign policies, these states frequently act as mediators or bridge-builders in global conflicts. At the same time, they can pursue their own interests efficiently through a combination of soft power and multi-lateralism to balance relationships amongst external powers. To be a middle power, a nation should also demonstrate resilience, adaptability, and a commitment to international norms. Since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has attracted substantial foreign investment, leveraging its vast energy resources to build a robust economy, and using this to enhance its regional and global influence. Its geographical position makes it a key player in Central Asia. The country's leadership pioneered the "multi-vector" foreign policy that has become a model for many nations seeking to balance relations with major powers. Kazakhstan’s contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation have further solidified its status as a rising middle power. Its foreign-policy strategy deploys a careful balancing act between larger global powers and regional neighbors. Thus, its multi-vector approach allows it to maintain strong ties with Russia, China, and the West, while avoiding over-dependence on any single partner. The country participates in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Organization of Turkic States while also pursuing relationships with the European Union and the United States. This strategy secures Kazakhstan's sovereignty while enhancing its role as a mediator in international conflicts. Since independence, the country has taken the lead in promoting regional integration, energy cooperation, and security, often acting as a mediator in regional disputes. Its leadership roles in regional organizations and initiatives represent a recognition of its efforts to foster stability and economic development in the region. Kazakhstan’s championing of regional cooperation and the “demonstration effect” of its model of political and economic stability have reinforced its position as a leader in Central Asia. Kazakhstan has actively engaged in various international initiatives that bolster its reputation as a responsible and influential middle power. Notably, the country has played a pivotal role in global nuclear non-proliferation, voluntarily relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal and advocating for disarmament through platforms like the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Kazakhstan has also hosted peace talks, such as the Astana Process for Syria, and contributed to UN peacekeeping missions. These initiatives reflect Kazakhstan’s commitment to global stability, positioning it as a proactive player in international diplomacy and a respected advocate for the peaceful resolution of conflicts. Kazakhstan's internal reform agenda is crucial for its continued growth and its evolving role...

Middle Powers Regional Cooperation Russia

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: A Partnership Born From Rivalry

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the largest countries in Central Asia in terms of their economy, population, and vital infrastructure. In the first decades after the collapse of the USSR, the two republics visibly competed for regional supremacy, but this situation has changed dramatically. A Test of Sovereignty Uzbeks and Kazakhs are related Turkic peoples who have lived side by side for centuries, and, therefore, have experienced many mutual offenses from each other in their shared history. Perhaps this is the semi-official explanation for the rivalry between Tashkent and Astana during the reigns of the first presidents of these republics - Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev. Another explanation for the struggle for leadership in Central Asia between Nazarbayev and Karimov lies in an old Kazakh proverb: "Two heads (of sheep) cannot fit in one pot." The implication is that there cannot be two leaders in one region at this level of multiple countries and personalities. Nazarbayev and Karimov, out of rivalry between the Soviet party nomenklatura, to which they both belonged, could not allow either of the other to rise. In the end, Moscow chose closer relations with Astana, which led to Tashkent withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Kazakh political scientist Maxim Kaznacheev has stated that this happened because Kazakhstan participated in various alliances, whilst Uzbekistan refused to do so, an indication that Tashkent had passed the sovereignty test, to the chagrin of Russia. "The ability of the government to pursue a sovereign policy should be put at the top of the list when determining a real regional leader. Uzbekistan has done better on this exam. Over the past decades, officially Tashkent has relied mainly on bilateral arrangements, avoiding active participation in multilateral integration formations," the political scientist stated. The Devil in the Details Despite these characteristics, Tashkent does not appear to have gained any advantages from this strategy, whether forced or chosen, due to a weak diplomatic corps. However, perhaps an Uzbek renaissance is yet to come. In late 2022, the Eurasian Development Bank published a report, "Central Asia's Economy: A New Look," which analyzed the prospects for interaction between Central Asian countries and the potential for the region to become a significant player in the world's economic map. According to this document, Kazakhstan remains the leading Central Asian economy, with its nominal 2021 GDP of $197.1 billion, 1.3 times the combined volume of the other four countries in the region. The report noted that by the end of 2022, Kazakhstan accounted for almost 60% of the total GDP of Central Asia. At the same time, GDP growth at the end of 2022 amounted to 3.2% compared to an average annual growth rate of 3.9% from 2010-2021. Uzbekistan is the next-largest economy in Central Asia after Kazakhstan, with a GDP of $69.2 billion in 2021, and $80.4 billion by the end of 2022. Although its nominal GDP is far smaller than Kazakhstan's, and its annual growth rate ($11 billion vs. $27 billion) does not seem to threaten Kazakhstan's...