Middle Powers - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Powers Rising: Shaping a Balanced Global Order at the Astana Think Tank Forum

On October 16-17, the capital of Kazakhstan hosted the Astana Think Tank International Forum. The theme of the two-day meeting was “Middle Powers in the Changing Global Order: Strengthening Security, Stability and Sustainable Development.” Experts from 22 countries — heads of leading think tanks, politicians and diplomats — participated and spoke at the event. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the forum. The two-day event focused on geopolitical, economic and strategic issues, including the role of mediating countries in resolving global conflicts. One of the main topics was determining the potential of intermediate states in forming a new world system under conditions of geopolitical tension. The experts tried to define the term "middle power" and what countries can be classified as middle powers. The moderator of the key session, Charles McLean, Managing Director of Borderless Consulting Group, invited the participants to answer several questions about the criteria, characteristics, and influence of middle powers in the modern geopolitical context. Dino Patti Djalal, Chair of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI), suggested categorizing all the of the world's states using analogies to boxing weight classes: heavyweights, middleweights, and lightweights. According to Djalal, middle powers have great potential to create a new world order. “There are several dimensions of middle powers. The first is potential, encompassing territorial and demographic size factors, political and economic weight, and a state's foreign policy ambitions. The second dimension is a moderate stance on major global issues,” Djalal said. Citing Kazakhstan as an example of a middle power, Djalal stated that Kazakhstan has achieved this status due to its balanced position, which allows it to exert some influence on the formation of the world order. Djalal emphasized that, even today, middle states (the bulk of which are concentrated in the Global South) can solve regional issues without the participation of so-called 'world powers'. “Look at Southeast Asia. Indonesia and Singapore solve their issues directly, without external influence. Naturally, this situation is developing in the conditions of weakening U.S. influence. Middle powers are dictating new rules,” Djalal noted, and should voice their positions on the global agenda, so their “voice” will be heard and become more “powerful.” Michel Duclos, Special Advisor on Geopolitics, suggested that regional powers whose activities have a global impact should be considered middle powers. “The great challenge for middle powers is establishing peace and stabilizing the situation. However, a common platform for all middle powers must be formed. This applies to the Global South and the Global North. France and others are reforming the UN Security Council,” Duclos stated. Joshua Lincoln from the Center for International Law and Governance at the Fletcher School (Tufts University), meanwhile, believes that increasing competition between great powers opens a “window of opportunity” for medium-sized states. “Geopolitical rivalries, the fragmentation of the world order, and the disillusionment of many with existing international institutions offer middle powers an opportunity to bring order to today's chaos. Their stance can enormously contribute to the world's security, stability, and sustainability. However, no country, even...

Multi-vector Foreign Policy Middle Powers

Kazakhstan as an Emerging Middle Power

Earlier this year, the Paris-based Institut Montaigne and the Berlin-based Institute of Security and International Affairs separately published studies identifying Kazakhstan as a significant "middle power". They correctly make the case that Kazakhstan, leveraging its vast natural resources, particularly in energy, and a multi-vector foreign policy, has positioned itself as a key player in regional and global affairs. A middle power is a state wielding significant regional influence and influencing international affairs through diplomacy, economic strength, and strategic alliances, but which is not a superpower. With relatively stable political systems, growing economies, and proactive foreign policies, these states frequently act as mediators or bridge-builders in global conflicts. At the same time, they can pursue their own interests efficiently through a combination of soft power and multi-lateralism to balance relationships amongst external powers. To be a middle power, a nation should also demonstrate resilience, adaptability, and a commitment to international norms. Since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has attracted substantial foreign investment, leveraging its vast energy resources to build a robust economy, and using this to enhance its regional and global influence. Its geographical position makes it a key player in Central Asia. The country's leadership pioneered the "multi-vector" foreign policy that has become a model for many nations seeking to balance relations with major powers. Kazakhstan’s contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation have further solidified its status as a rising middle power. Its foreign-policy strategy deploys a careful balancing act between larger global powers and regional neighbors. Thus, its multi-vector approach allows it to maintain strong ties with Russia, China, and the West, while avoiding over-dependence on any single partner. The country participates in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Organization of Turkic States while also pursuing relationships with the European Union and the United States. This strategy secures Kazakhstan's sovereignty while enhancing its role as a mediator in international conflicts. Since independence, the country has taken the lead in promoting regional integration, energy cooperation, and security, often acting as a mediator in regional disputes. Its leadership roles in regional organizations and initiatives represent a recognition of its efforts to foster stability and economic development in the region. Kazakhstan’s championing of regional cooperation and the “demonstration effect” of its model of political and economic stability have reinforced its position as a leader in Central Asia. Kazakhstan has actively engaged in various international initiatives that bolster its reputation as a responsible and influential middle power. Notably, the country has played a pivotal role in global nuclear non-proliferation, voluntarily relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal and advocating for disarmament through platforms like the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Kazakhstan has also hosted peace talks, such as the Astana Process for Syria, and contributed to UN peacekeeping missions. These initiatives reflect Kazakhstan’s commitment to global stability, positioning it as a proactive player in international diplomacy and a respected advocate for the peaceful resolution of conflicts. Kazakhstan's internal reform agenda is crucial for its continued growth and its evolving role...

Middle Powers Singapore ASEAN

Middle Powers Converge: Kazakhstan and Singapore Strengthen Bilateral Ties

During his country’s first presidential-level visit to Singapore in two decades, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on May 23. The meeting represents an alignment of interests and resources between the two middle powers and serves to create a more balanced and cooperative global environment. Identifying middle powers When global powers become embroiled in their domestic issues or engage in rivalries that prevent effective international cooperation, middle powers step in to fill the leadership void. For instance, Canada has historically taken a lead in peacekeeping missions under the United Nations, advocating for human rights and mediating conflicts where larger powers are either unwilling or unable to engage. Middle powers, also referred to as “swing states”, are defined as influential players in international politics who resist taking sides in major conflicts and possess a specific combination of characteristics such as geostrategic location, demography, economic performance, natural resource wealth, military power and/or political influence. In a January 2024 study, the German Institute of Security and International Affairs (SWS) listed Kazakhstan among twelve notable “middle powers” in the world, who were of great importance to Germany and the EU for either shaping policies or minimizing geoeconomic risks by diversifying foreign policy relations. Kazakhstan possesses immense energy resources and critical materials for the green transition. Bordering Russia, China, and the Caspian Sea, it also offers a land bridge linking East-West and North-South corridors. Singapore is also considered a middle power with its notable regional and international influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. A highly developed country with one of the highest per capita GDPs in the world, Singapore is the only nation in Asia with a “AAA” sovereign credit rating from all major rating agencies. Additionally, it has one of the highest per capita defense expenditures globally and is among the largest arms manufacturers. A partnership between Kazakhstan and Singapore strengthens their middle power status What distinguishes middle powers from smaller powers is their ability to be more independent and active, particularly in the realm of diplomacy. The collaboration between these two leaders, therefore, helps solidify their middle power status. On a diplomatic level, President Tokayev emphasized Singapore's role as Kazakhstan’s strategic partner in Southeast Asia and expressed confidence that his state visit would strengthen bilateral relations. For his part, Prime Minister Wong highlighted that Singapore could serve as a gateway for Kazakhstan to engage with Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) while Kazakhstan could help Singapore build ties with Central Asia. Economically speaking, collaboration offers great potential gains for both sides. Currently, over 140 Singaporean entities and joint ventures operate in Kazakhstan, with total investment exceeding $1.7 billion. These numbers are expected to rise through further integration of their economies. During their recent meeting, the leaders focused on key sectors where Kazakhstan brings high strategic value. For instance, Wong expressed the importation of more agri-food products from Kazakhstan. Singapore’s Indorama Corporation is already in discussions about the production of phosphate fertilizers in Kazakhstan. Logistics is another key...