Middle Powers - The Times Of Central Asia

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Geopolitics

Soft Power in Times of Geopolitical Turbulence: Kazakhstan’s Strategy as a Middle Power

For Kazakhstan, deeply embedded in global supply chains and international investment flows, soft power is evolving from an image-building asset into a strategic instrument of resilience. In an era of globalization, when even geographically distant conflicts can directly threaten national infrastructure and economic security, Astana’s ability to leverage institutional initiatives and investment interdependence as a form of diplomatic protection has become a decisive advantage. Over the long term, stability tends to characterize states whose infrastructure and economic interests are deeply interconnected with those of major global centers of power. A middle power and rational diplomacy Kazakhstan’s status as a middle power is not a matter of ambition, but a deliberate choice in favor of rational diplomacy, where flexibility and institutional engagement serve as key resources. Multilateral dialogue with the U.S., Russia, China, the EU, Turkey, and countries of the Middle East is being developed not as situational maneuvering but as a core strategy for minimizing external risks and preserving sovereignty. It is precisely the combination of proactive soft power, political neutrality, and economic openness that allows Kazakhstan to transform geopolitical turbulence into a strategic advantage, positioning the country as an indispensable hub of international stability. Ultimately, the rational diplomacy of a middle power transforms the country’s geographical position from a potential zone of conflict into a platform for dialogue, where pragmatism and institutional mediation become the principal guarantees of national sovereignty. The Ukrainian case: infrastructure protection as an element of soft power Developments surrounding Russia's war in Ukraine illustrate how Kazakhstan’s soft power can function as a form of economic protection. The attacks on infrastructure in the Novorossiysk area, through which the Caspian Pipeline Consortium exports oil, highlighted a distinctive mechanism for safeguarding national interests through investment interdependence. Strikes near the Black Sea hub posed a direct threat not only to logistics but also to the assets of major American investors in Kazakh energy projects, including Tengiz. According to reports cited in public discussions, the U.S. urged Ukraine to take into account the interests of American investors in Kazakhstan. If confirmed, such a step would represent an important precedent: even amid an intense military conflict, global actors remain attentive to protecting the economic interests tied to Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure. For Astana, this episode illustrates how decades of building strategic relations with Western partners have created a significant layer of economic security. In this context, soft power manifests itself as a form of “investment protection,” discouraging actions that could damage oil production or transport infrastructure linked to global stakeholders. Institutionalizing neutrality: why Kazakhstan needs a Board of Peace The creation of the Board of Peace by U.S. President Donald Trump and Kazakhstan’s active participation signals Kazakhstan’s transition from ad hoc mediation toward a more structured institutional architecture of soft power. The signing of the Board of Peace Charter by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev formally embeds peacebuilding activities within the state’s foreign policy framework. Kazakhstan’s developing participation in this initiative is also linked to its experience hosting the Congress of Leaders of World...

Board of Peace

The Board of Peace and Central Asia: Asserting Agency in a Fragmented Order

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s speech at the inaugural meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in Washington on February 19 was not only a foreign policy event, but one with significant domestic resonance. The initiatives announced include Kazakhstan’s participation in the reconstruction of Gaza, financial commitments, and readiness to send peacekeepers. Against the backdrop of economic challenges and ongoing constitutional reforms, however, a substantial segment of Kazakh society is questioning whether such an active foreign policy posture is justified at this time. The Board of Peace, the charter for which was ratified in Davos in January 2026 on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, is positioned as an alternative to traditional multilateral institutions. According to Trump, the new body should not merely discuss conflicts, but will also "almost be looking over the United Nations and making sure it runs properly." Symbolically, the Board’s launch comes amid U.S. reductions and withholding of UN-related funding and withdrawals from multiple international bodies, alongside a partial U.S. payment toward UN arrears and the parallel creation of alternative financial and security mechanisms. According to the U.S. Mission to Kazakhstan, at the first meeting of the Board of Peace, nine members pledged a combined $7 billion aid package for the Gaza Strip. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, the UAE, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait indicated their willingness to contribute. Additionally, Trump pledged $10B in U.S. funding, framing peace and reconstruction as a strategic priority. However, experts note that these sums fall far short of projected needs. According to joint UN-EU-World Bank estimates, the full reconstruction of Gaza could require up to $70 billion. In addition, the implementation of projects is complicated by the issue of disarming Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization in the U.S. and the European Union. At present, there is no indication that any Western or regional government intends to revise that designation. A notable feature of the Washington summit was the synchronized participation and subsequent public statements of key member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey effectively acted as what appeared to be an aligned geopolitical grouping, albeit without a formal declaration of joint action. What Is Kazakhstan Seeking? For Astana, participation in the Board of Peace appears to represent a renewed step in its multi-vector foreign policy doctrine. Tokayev directly stated Kazakhstan’s readiness to send medical units and observers to international stabilization forces and to allocate more than 500 educational grants for Palestinian students. In effect, Kazakhstan is reinforcing its image as a “Middle Power” prepared not only for diplomatic mediation but also for tangible contributions to international security efforts. This course aligns with the country’s existing participation in UN missions. Currently, 139 Kazakh military personnel are serving in the Golan Heights under the UN Disengagement Observer Force mandate. Nevertheless, the intensification of foreign policy engagement is raising domestic questions. Concerns voiced on social media and among experts include whether the international agenda risks diverting attention from internal economic pressures, including...

Board of Peace

Central Asia and Azerbaijan on Board as the Gaza Peace Effort Gets Underway

As the Trump Administration is trying to drag the world toward the reconstruction of Gaza, an undertaking fraught with security, political, and economic challenges, a gap is emerging between the “old” Europe, skeptical of Trump, and nation-states seeking to expand cooperation with Washington. Central Asian and Caucasian "middle powers" are among the emerging allies in the Trump Administration's latest diplomatic gambit for peace. Kazakhstan took a leadership position as the first Muslim-majority state outside the Middle East to join the Abraham Accords in November 2025. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, an experienced diplomat, former Foreign Minister, and high-level U.N. official, represented his country at the Board of Peace inauguration during the January 2026 session of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. So did Ilham Aliev, President of Azerbaijan, and his First Lady and First Vice President, Mehriban, both of whom met with Trump in Davos. The attendance and participation of leaders of other majority-Muslim states outside the Middle East are also noteworthy. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia, Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu of Kosovo, and Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan signed the Charter on behalf of their respective nations. Those who chose not to participate are equally noteworthy. France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Portugal, Canada, and Australia, which publicly announced or reaffirmed recognition of a State of Palestine around the U.N. General Assembly in September 2025, each determined not to attend the signing ceremony at Davos, despite the fact that the establishment of the Board was officially welcomed by the UN Security Council in November 2025. This underscores the challenges that will arise as Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict enters its second phase, which foresees Hamas’ disarmament. Similarly, differences in policy toward Israel among the Muslim-majority countries that signed the Charter speak to the complexity of the Board’s task. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan have longstanding diplomatic and trade relations with Israel. This contrasts with the complex and often hostile stances of Qatar, long ruled by the Al Thani family, and Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, both of which support the Muslim Brotherhood and shelter Hamas terrorists. Then there are countries like Indonesia and Pakistan, which have never had diplomatic relations with Israel. Indonesia, under Subianto, continues to condition recognition of Israel on the creation of a Palestinian state. Pakistan has been officially hostile since its founding, and is particularly fearful of Jerusalem’s increasingly close relations with India, though it does have a history of covert information sharing and unofficial cooperation. Once again, navigating the political agendas and moving the reconstruction project forward will require a multi-dimensional chess game. Nevertheless, the Trump White House is working on the Board of Peace's first meeting, set for February 19th. Currently, there is no official word about whether the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will attend, while other leaders plan to, such as President Aliyev, who just signed a Strategic Partnership Charter during a visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Azerbaijan, and PM Nikol Pashinyan of...

Geopolitics

Opinion: Multi-Vectorism 2.0 – Kazakhstan Seeks Balance in a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The world is reverting to the logic of bloc confrontation. Sanctions regimes, technological barriers, and deepening mistrust between major powers are compelling medium-sized states to chart independent courses. Kazakhstan stands at the center of this evolving geopolitical matrix. While Moscow remains a vital partner in defense and energy, Astana is simultaneously cultivating strong ties with other global power centers, including China, the U.S., Turkey, the European Union, and the Gulf states. Yet Kazakhstan refuses to align with any single bloc, adhering instead to a strategy of "flexible autonomy", cooperating broadly while preserving its sovereignty. Russia: Alliance with Strategic Boundaries On November 11-12, 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The two leaders signed a declaration on a comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance, reaffirming cooperation on security, energy, and logistics projects. Key discussions included the gasification of border regions, the modernization of energy infrastructure, and the transit of Russian energy via Kazakhstan. Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan’s interest in a stable and prosperous Russia, calling Putin a “statesman of global stature.” Still, this alignment does not supplant Kazakhstan’s multi-vector policy. The Moscow visit directly followed Tokayev’s talks in Washington, underscoring that Astana views relations with Russia as one of several strategic pillars. The U.S.: Investment and Critical Minerals Diplomacy During Tokayev’s visit to the U.S. in early November 2025, he and President Donald Trump oversaw the signing of 29 agreements totaling approximately $17 billion. The deals spanned industry, energy, digitalization, education, and innovation. Highlights in recent collaboration between Kazakhstan and the U.S. include a $2.5 billion John Deere production facility in Kostanay and Turkestan, a $1.1 billion development of tungsten deposits, and over $1 billion in digital infrastructure cooperation with companies such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Oracle, and Starlink. Leading global funds also pledged roughly $1 billion in new investments. These agreements reflect growing trust and a shared commitment to investment-driven, high-tech cooperation. China: Strategic Synergy and Technological Convergence China remains Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner and a cornerstone of its eastern vector. During Tokayev’s October 17, 2023 visit to Beijing, he and President Xi Jinping reaffirmed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” built on political trust and economic cooperation. In June 2025, Xi Jinping visited Astana for the second China-Central Asia Summit, where he and Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev reinforced their countries’ “comprehensive strategic partnership”, oversaw deals spanning energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and digital technology. Later that year, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, the two leaders used the platform to deepen cooperation within a multilateral framework, promoting connectivity and regional trade under the Belt and Road Initiative. Turkey: Civilizational Ties and Strategic Growth Ties between Kazakhstan and Turkey are underpinned by shared cultural and historical foundations. At the fifth High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara on July 29, 2025, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Tokayev, reaffirming Turkey’s role as a major investor and educational partner. More than 12,000 Kazakh students are enrolled in Turkish universities. Defense cooperation is expanding under the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), and tourism and...

Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Astana Think Tank Forum

Astana Renews Call for Nuclear Dialogue, Global Security Reform

Kazakhstan has reiterated its call for the resumption of high-level dialogue among nuclear powers and a renewed focus on multilateralism to bolster global security. The appeal was made by First Deputy Foreign Minister Yerzhan Ashikbayev during the Astana Think Tank Forum 2025, held on the theme “From Polarization to Partnership: Restoring Trust in the International System.” Ashikbayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s support for forming a unified Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security community and its commitment to contributing to a new international order. “We call for the resumption of dialogue between nuclear powers and a scaling up of multilateral efforts to reduce the threat of weapons of mass destruction. Kazakhstan is committed to making a world without nuclear weapons the key goal of the 21st century,” he said. The forum gathered around 40 international experts from 20 countries, including diplomats, researchers, and heads of leading think tanks. UN Reform and Regional Equity Ashikbayev called for reforming the UN Security Council to ensure broader, more equitable representation for countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. He also highlighted the growing role of “middle powers” in fostering trust and regional stability. “We advocate strict adherence to the UN Charter and a modernized institutional architecture that reflects today’s global challenges, not outdated procedures. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peaceful conflict resolution must be upheld universally,” he said. He proposed a new global security framework based on “regional stability as the foundation for global peace,” grounded in international law and multilateral cooperation. Digital Sovereignty and AI Governance In addressing the implications of emerging technologies, Ashikbayev stressed the need for a global regulatory framework for artificial intelligence. “Access to AI must be fair, inclusive, and non-discriminatory. This is not just a technological issue, it’s about digital sovereignty and equitable global development,” he said, affirming Kazakhstan’s readiness to participate in shaping international AI standards. Environmental Diplomacy and Climate Strategy Ashikbayev also emphasized environmental priorities, urging greater international involvement in addressing ecological challenges and protecting shared water resources in the Aral and Caspian Seas. He noted that Kazakhstan plays an active role in the global climate agenda and will host a regional climate summit in Astana in 2026 to advance collective environmental strategies in Central Asia. “Kazakhstan is pursuing carbon neutrality by 2060 through pragmatic steps, including economic diversification and a balanced energy approach. We are expanding renewables while ensuring energy security through traditional sectors,” he said. The Rise of Middle Powers Ashikbayev underscored the rising influence of middle powers in today’s fragmented geopolitical landscape, positioning them as vital mediators and conveners of dialogue. Charles Maclean, founder and managing director of Borderless Consulting Group, echoed this view. “While the spotlight is often on great powers, middle powers are emerging as drivers of constructive reform. Kazakhstan’s growing role and the presence of its leadership on global platforms reflect this new leadership model,” he said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, independent studies by Institut Montaigne (France) and the Institute for Security and International Studies (Germany) have both identified Kazakhstan as...