Central Asia remains a theater of active economic competition, with countries in the region striving to diversify external partnerships and reduce dependence on traditional power centers, Russia and China. While both continue to dominate foreign trade, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are increasingly exploring new directions.
The region’s evolving trade dynamics reflect each country’s economic characteristics. Kazakhstan is driven by energy and metals exports, Uzbekistan by manufacturing and resource processing, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely heavily on remittances and raw material exports.
Amid global shifts and intensified competition for markets, Central Asian states are gradually shaping more multipolar trade strategies, opening up new routes and partnerships. Turkmenistan is excluded from this analysis due to the opacity of its national statistics.
Kazakhstan
As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan relies heavily on natural resource extraction. Its main exports include oil, gas, metals, coal, grain, and agricultural products. Imports consist primarily of machinery, chemicals, vehicles, and consumer goods.
Key export partners include Italy (21.6%), China (18.6%), Russia (10.2%), the Netherlands (7.4%), Turkey (4.7%), and Uzbekistan (4.3%). On the import side, China (29%) and Russia (28.8%) dominate, followed by Germany (4.8%), South Korea (3.7%), the United States (3.6%), and Turkey (2.5%).
Kazakhstan has maintained a positive trade balance, buoyed by consistent demand for raw materials. In January-July 2025, the country’s foreign trade turnover totaled $78.18 billion, down 2.6% from the same period in 2024. Exports declined by 6.4% to $43.58 billion, while imports rose by 2.6% to $34.6 billion.
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan’s economy is focused on agriculture, textiles, natural resources, and manufacturing. Major exports include textiles, gold, gas, automobiles, cotton, and fruit. Imports are led by machinery, equipment, chemicals, and petroleum products.
In the first half of 2025, foreign trade turnover reached $44.4 billion, up 19.9% year-on-year. Exports rose 34.9% to $20.1 billion, while imports increased 9.9% to $24.29 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $4.18 billion.
Uzbekistan trades with 197 countries. Its largest trade partners are China (18.2%), Russia (16.1%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), Turkey (3.6%), and South Korea (2.2%). Export destinations include Russia (12.3%), China (5.5%), Kazakhstan (4.0%), Afghanistan (3.7%), Turkey (3.0%), France (2.6%), the UAE (1.8%), Kyrgyzstan (1.6%), Tajikistan (1.4%), and Pakistan (1.2%).
Imports mainly come from China (28.7%), Russia (19.3%), Kazakhstan (7.6%), Turkey (4.1%), South Korea (3.9%), Germany (2.8%), and India (2.6%).
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan, with limited natural resources, is heavily dependent on foreign trade. Its economy is rooted in agriculture, mining, and textiles. Key exports include gold and agricultural products, while imports are dominated by machinery, vehicles, petroleum products, and chemicals.
From January to June 2025, foreign trade turnover fell 12.4% year-on-year to $6.99 billion. Exports made up only 15% of total trade, underscoring a continued trade deficit. Main partners remain Kazakhstan, Russia, and China.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan’s economy is centered on agriculture, hydropower, textiles, and mining. In January-August 2025, foreign trade turnover rose 16.8% year-on-year to $6.73 billion. Exports totaled $1.63 billion, while imports reached $5.1 billion, more than triple the export volume.
Main exports are aluminum, textiles, agricultural goods, and minerals; imports include petroleum products, machinery, chemicals, and food.
Trade with China hit $1.66 billion, up 40% year-on-year. Tajik exports to China stood at $270 million, while imports from China reached $1.39 billion. China now accounts for 25% of Tajikistan’s total trade, overtaking Russia for the first time. Trade with Russia totaled $1.44 billion (21.4%), while trade with Kazakhstan fell 13.1% to $758 million.
Still in the Grip of Giants?
Despite growing interest in European markets, China and Russia remain dominant trade partners. Trade with the US remains limited, constrained by geography and Washington’s protectionist trade stance.
Sanctions, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and shifting logistics continue to shape regional trade patterns. In this context, diversification is crucial for Central Asia’s economic resilience. Yet efforts to escape Beijing’s and Moscow’s economic gravitational pulls remain tentative.
Kazakh economist Serik Belgibaev notes that while Central Asia has long pursued a multi-vector foreign policy, balancing external ties has proven elusive. “Previously, overreliance on Russia created excessive dependency from labor markets to energy exports. Now, a new imbalance is emerging in China’s favor. China’s trade with Central Asia has reached $95 billion and continues to grow. The region is increasingly tied to Chinese markets and capital. Debt is just one indicator: in Kyrgyzstan, debt to China accounts for about 40% of total external debt; in Tajikistan, more than 25%; and in Kazakhstan, around 3.5% of GDP, which remains relatively manageable,” he says.
Belgibaev warns that China could demand repayment on its terms. He cites the example of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, which was leased to China for 99 years in exchange for debt relief. “In 2021, President Sadyr Japarov acknowledged that if Kyrgyzstan failed to repay loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, key infrastructure, including the Bishkek thermal power plant, power lines, and roads, could be at risk,” Belgibaev adds.
He argues that China is expanding its influence “gently but purposefully,” using investment and aid to build long-term dependence.
Still, Uzbek political analyst Zakir Usmanov highlights Central Asia’s growing strategic value, thanks to its critical mineral reserves and emerging transport corridors. “Global competition for regional influence between the US, China, and Russia is intensifying. This presents a rare opportunity to benefit from the interest of multiple major powers. While challenges remain, the trajectory is clear: Central Asia is moving toward greater economic self-sufficiency,” he says.
