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U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Rubio Meeting Highlights Kazakhstan’s Growing U.S. Agenda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s April 15 meeting with senior Kazakh officials in Washington gave fresh visibility to a relationship that both sides increasingly frame in economic as well as diplomatic terms. At a time when Washington is trying to give its Central Asia policy more practical shape, Kazakhstan is a key U.S. partner in the region. Rubio met President Tokayev’s Special Representative for Negotiations with the United States, Erzhan Kazykhan, and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin. The talks covered ways to expand economic ties between the United States and Kazakhstan, as well as Kazakhstan’s role in peacemaking and regional initiatives. Rubio also welcomed Kazakhstan’s participation in the C5+1 platform and reaffirmed U.S. support for the country’s “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” In a post on X, Rubio said the talks focused on strengthening commercial ties and advancing regional cooperation. That language put trade, investment, and regional economic coordination at the center of the meeting. Launched in 2015, the C5+1 began as a diplomatic framework linking the United States and the five Central Asian states. It later broadened into a more structured platform, with working groups on trade, energy, and the environment, and with growing emphasis on logistics, diversification, supply chains, and investment. The rise of the B5+1 reinforced that shift by giving business a more formal place in the relationship. By late 2025, the format placed more emphasis on deliverables, including infrastructure, funding mechanisms, and cooperation on mineral processing and research. That shift has also been visible in Kazakhstan’s own dealings with Washington. During President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to the United States in November 2025, the Kazakh delegation signed 29 bilateral agreements worth about $17 billion, including a memorandum on critical minerals cooperation and major commercial deals in aviation, agriculture, and mining. The same visit underlined how closely economic diplomacy and strategic supply concerns are now tied together. Kazakhstan has attracted roughly $100 billion in cumulative U.S. investment since independence, and critical minerals have moved closer to the center of the relationship as Washington looks for secure supply chains beyond China and Russia. Kazakhstan has attracted over $151 billion in net foreign direct investment since independence. Rubio’s talks with Zhumangarin and Kazykhan came after months of stronger U.S.-Kazakhstan economic contact. Kazakhstan has a larger economic profile than any other Central Asian state, and its role in energy, critical minerals, investment, and transit gives it a prominent place in Washington’s regional thinking. That makes Astana a natural focus for any U.S. push to deepen commercial ties in Central Asia. The sovereignty language in the U.S. readout was also not incidental. For Kazakhstan, public backing from Washington on sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity carries political weight in a region where questions of borders, pressure, and strategic dependence remain sensitive. Astana’s multi-vector foreign policy is built on preserving room for maneuver among larger powers. High-level engagement in Washington supports that strategy and signals that closer U.S. ties can sit alongside Kazakhstan’s broader balancing act. The Washington...

Oil Supply

Kazakhstan on Europe’s Oil Podium, but for How Long?

Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as one of the key suppliers of oil to the European Union, capitalizing on the redistribution of energy flows following the reduction of Russian crude imports. However, declining production and vulnerabilities in export infrastructure cast doubt on the country’s ability to maintain this position in the medium term. According to official EU data, the EU remains one of the world’s largest oil importers, meeting about 97% of its demand through external supplies. In 2025, EU countries imported approximately 435 million tonnes of crude oil worth more than €212 billion. The reduction in Russia’s share from 25.8% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2025 led to a significant redistribution of flows in favour of alternative suppliers, including the United States (14.6%), Norway (12.8%), and Kazakhstan (12.8%) by crude-oil import volume. Kazakhstan has been among the main beneficiaries of these changes. According to an Econovis Economic Research Laboratory report, the share of Kazakh supplies in European imports has increased for several consecutive years. This growth has been driven by strong demand from European refineries for light, low-sulfur CPC Blend crude. Alongside Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan has also strengthened its position, benefiting from Europe’s diversification efforts. A notable example is the Czech Republic, where, following the cessation of deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, Azerbaijan accounted for more than 42% of oil imports in 2025, according to Czech import data. Kazakhstan ranked third in the Czech market with a share of around 18%, indicating the emergence of a new energy balance in the Caspian region. Despite this favorable external environment, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector has faced a significant downturn. According to government data, in the first quarter of 2026, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 19.7 million tonnes, 20% less than in the same period of 2025. Oil exports declined by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes, while the annual export forecast stands at about 76 million tonnes. By mid-April, however, CPC exports had risen from February levels as Tengiz resumed production, suggesting that some of the early-year disruption had eased. The decline is linked to disruptions in the operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and temporary shutdowns at major fields, including Tengiz. The CPC remains the key export route for Kazakh oil to Europe, transporting most of the crude through the terminal in Novorossiysk. Economic analyst Olzhas Baidildinov said the consequences of attacks on the consortium’s infrastructure could have long-term implications. “Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell by 20% in the first quarter compared to January-March 2025, 19.7 million tonnes versus 24.6 million tonnes. Oil exports decreased by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes. The export forecast for this year is 76 million tonnes,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. According to his estimates, the country will once again fail to surpass the psychologically significant threshold of 100 million tonnes of annual production. “As a result of the attacks on the CPC, at least 6 million tonnes of oil worth no less than $3.4 billion were...

International Tourism

Welcome to Turkmenistan? President Says He Wants International Tourists to Visit

Turkmenistan, one of the world’s most closed countries, is hosting an international tourism conference this week. The “TurkmenTravel – 2026” event in the capital of Ashgabat aims to attract foreign visitors to a country that is generally difficult to visit because of tight controls, including required letters of invitation and the need to have licensed guides. While some travel agencies aim to address those challenges for tourists, Turkmenistan remains a little-understood country and lags far behind regional countries such as neighboring Uzbekistan in terms of infrastructure and accessibility for travelers. But the three-day tourism conference, which ends on Thursday, could be a tentative sign that Turkmenistan wants to open up, selectively, and within the limits of a tightly controlled system that restricts the internet and other sources of information for its citizens. [caption id="attachment_13432" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] Ashgabat Arch of Neutrality; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Across Central Asia, governments increasingly treat tourism as both an economic sector and a tool of international image-building. Turkmenistan now appears to want some of that attention, but on its own carefully managed terms. The event was a priority for Turkmenistan’s government. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov delivered a message of encouragement to the participants and said tourism was growing in the Central Asian country whose stated policy is one of neutrality in international affairs. Statistics on tourism growth and other metrics are hard to come by in Turkmenistan, however. That makes the message from Ashgabat especially striking: a state known less for openness than for control is publicly promoting tourism growth while offering little transparent data to show how far that growth has actually come. [caption id="attachment_47157" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Kunya-Urgench- The ancient Nejameddin Kubra and Sultan Ali Mausoleums; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] “Permanently neutral, Turkmenistan places great importance on expanding international cooperation in this area,” the president said. He noted collaboration with the U.N. World Tourism Organization and other international institutions. For years, Turkmenistan’s image abroad has rested less on mass tourism than on mystery: the white-marble capital, vast desert landscapes, major Silk Road sites, and a political system that has often kept outsiders at a distance. In Ashgabat, that mystery is part of the experience from the start. White marble towers rise in regimented lines, fountains splash into largely empty spaces, and broad avenues can feel strangely still. The city is visually extravagant but tightly controlled, with an atmosphere that can leave visitors unsure whether they are in a showcase capital, a stage set, or both. Berdimuhamedov listed some of Turkmenistan’s attractions: Ancient Merv, Nisa, and Kunya-Urgench, the Bereketli Garagum and Gaplaňgyr nature reserves, desert ecosystems, and the elaborate architecture in Ashgabat. [caption id="attachment_27727" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Ashgabat - A row of marble towers in the Berzengi district; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Cordula Wohlmuther, regional director for Europe of U.N. Tourism, was one of the listed speakers at the tourism conference. The agenda for the event included a session titled “How to promote Central Asian culture on the world stage.” One company, Asia Odyssey Travel, portrays Turkmenistan...

TCA Interviews

Kazakh Violinist Dinara Bazarbayeva-Sakhaman on Sound, Identity, and the Demands of the Stage

Dinara Bazarbayeva-Sakhaman, a soloist at the Zhambyl Kazakh State Philharmonic, spends much of her time moving between countries and concert halls, performing with international orchestras and collaborating with musicians from different traditions. Behind these appearances lies not only a demanding touring schedule, but also rigorous discipline: long hours of rehearsal, complete dedication on stage, and a constant search for the right sound. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, she reflects on the Kazakh violin school, the nature of talent, and the enduring pull of her instrument. TCA: Dinara, your career has taken you to many countries. What has that experience been like? Dinara: Not the entire world, of course, but I’ve visited many countries thanks to my profession. The only time I traveled without my violin was when I went to Thailand, and throughout the trip, I felt as if something was missing. It was unusual, waking up on the plane and thinking, “Where is my violin?” TCA: Do you usually travel with an orchestra? Dinara: It varies, but more often I travel alone. There are projects where orchestras are assembled from musicians from different countries. For example, the renowned violinist and now conductor Marat Bisengaliev does this in India. For the Symphony Orchestra of India, he invites musicians from around the world. I have been collaborating with this orchestra for quite some time; it is an excellent ensemble. Working in such groups, sharing cultures, performing for diverse audiences, and collaborating with musicians from different parts of the world is one of the most fascinating aspects of our profession. TCA: Are there any distinctive features of the Indian violin school? Dinara: I performed in Mumbai, where there are several schools. One was founded by Marat Bisengaliev at the National Centre for the Performing Arts, and another by Mehli Mehta. In Bisengaliev’s school, classical violin is taught based on our educational system while incorporating elements of Indian tradition. What surprised me most was the number of self-taught violinists. TCA: And how do they play? Dinara: Surprisingly well. Their path is very different, yet the results are impressive. In our system, if you don’t start learning the violin at the age of five or six, seven at the latest, it is believed that you will not catch up and will likely remain an amateur. However, I know someone who began playing at 33 and now performs in a professional orchestra, knowing first violin parts almost by heart. He has a beautiful tone and excellent intonation. For me, this is a unique case. TCA: At what age did you start playing? Dinara: At five. That means I’ve spent 36 years with the violin and cannot remember life without it. I often joke that it is my lifelong implant—an inseparable part of me, with only its size changing as I grew. TCA: How would you describe the Kazakh violin school? Dinara: The foundation of our school lies in the Russian-Soviet tradition. During World War II, many teachers were evacuated to Kazakhstan and remained...

Prisons

Russia Seeks Transfer of 200 Tajik Women Prisoners After Dushanbe Approval

Russia’s human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova has received a positive response from Emomali Rahmon regarding the possible transfer of around 200 Tajik women currently serving sentences in Russian prisons, according to TASS. Moskalkova said she had written to the Tajik president requesting that the women be allowed to continue serving their sentences in Tajikistan on humanitarian grounds. “In each case, we must carefully weigh issues of justice, mercy, and humanism,” she said in an interview with TASS. She noted that while most cases confirm that crimes were committed, the severity of punishment should not always be maximal. “Sometimes leniency helps a person reform, repent, and change for the better. That is why we try in each case to find arguments that could support leniency, especially for women,” she said. According to Moskalkova, foreign women prisoners face additional challenges, including limited access to family visits and difficulties receiving parcels from relatives. These factors were among the reasons behind her appeal to Tajik authorities. She also pointed to broader policy developments in Russia’s penal system, citing improvements in detention conditions under the country’s penal reform strategy through 2030. Moskalkova highlighted recent legislation limiting pretrial detention for women with young children who have committed non-violent offenses. In addition, she said she has repeatedly asked courts to grant deferrals of sentences for women with children under the age of 14, thanking the judiciary for what she described as “understanding and positive decisions” in such cases. Earlier this month, Moskalkova said Russia was prepared to facilitate the transfer of more than 3,000 Uzbek nationals convicted in Russia to serve their sentences in Uzbekistan. However, she noted that the process remains stalled due to legal constraints, including Uzbekistan’s failure to ratify the 1998 Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons.

Economic Growth

Why Strong Economic Growth in Central Asia Masks Underlying Risks

Central Asian countries are significantly outperforming the global average in GDP growth, largely due to differing economic models across the region. However, rapid expansion does not remove deep structural vulnerabilities. As early as March, data showed that the combined economies of Central Asian countries grew by nearly 7% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The World Bank estimates regional growth at 6.2%, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) places it at 6.6%. These calculations include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan is excluded due to limited statistical transparency. By comparison, growth rates in advanced economies are much lower. The EDB expects around 1.6% growth in the U.S. and approximately 1.1% in the eurozone in 2026, while China’s economy is projected to expand by about 4.6%. Nevertheless, experts note that the region’s economic outlook remains complicated by high inflation, income inequality, and continued dependence on external factors. Investment activity and domestic demand have been the key drivers of growth, according to the EDB. Kazakhstan recorded its highest growth in 13 years (6.5%), with industry leading the expansion: mining grew by 9.4% and manufacturing by 6.4%. In 2026, the non-resource sector is expected to play a greater role. Kyrgyzstan has led the region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year: GDP grew by 11.1% in 2025 and by 9% in January 2026. In Uzbekistan, GDP increased by 7.7% in 2025 (up from 6.7% a year earlier), supported by investment, trade, services, and construction. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 8.4% in 2025, matching the previous year’s performance. Growth continues to be driven by expanding industrial production and strong domestic demand. Early 2026 data suggest this momentum is holding. Uzbekistan’s Record In April, the World Bank highlighted Uzbekistan’s resilience to external challenges and strong growth dynamics. According to its updated report, the country’s 2025 GDP growth was revised upward by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%. The outlook is 6.4% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Key drivers include high global gold prices, investment inflows, expanded lending, and ongoing structural reforms. Rising household incomes have also played an important role, supported by remittances, which increased by 37% last year to reach $18.9 billion. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan ranked among the fastest-growing economies in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The region as a whole is experiencing its highest growth rates in 14 years. At the same time, analysts point to persistent structural constraints, including a large public sector and the dominance of state-owned enterprises, which hinder private sector development. External risks, including geopolitical instability and potential disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, remain significant. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP exceeded €133 billion, compared to approximately €56 billion nine years earlier. Over the same period, GDP per capita rose from about €1,750 to around €3,220, nearly doubling average income levels. Investment in fixed capital increased by more than 15% year-on-year in 2025, while export value grew by over 33%. Persistently high global gold prices played a major role: export...