Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.5% in January–October 2026, down from 6.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing and construction were among the main drivers of growth despite a sharp decline in oil production, while household incomes barely increased after inflation in the first half of the year.
The latest preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures were released by the Ministry of National Economy, citing the Bureau of National Statistics. Growth was slightly higher than the 4.2% recorded in January–September. The non-resource sector expanded by an estimated 5.6% in the first 10 months, while oil production fell 8.3% year over year in January–September.
Manufacturing growth accelerated from 8.6% in the first nine months to 9.3% in January–October. Pharmaceutical production rose 50.9% year over year, machinery output increased 22.2%, and food production grew 13%. Overall industrial output was up 3.5%.
Construction expanded 13.1%, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors. Transportation and warehousing increased 7.5%, trade grew 6.2%, and agriculture rose 5.2%. Communications services expanded 4.9%.
Construction, manufacturing, transportation, and trade together accounted for more than three-quarters of GDP growth in the first nine months, according to government figures. Fixed investment rose 7% over the same period, including an 18.2% increase in private investment.
Household purchasing power showed little improvement, with real income per person rising just 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.7% in the second compared with the corresponding periods of 2025.
Annual inflation eased to 9.2% in October from 9.3% in September, according to the statistics bureau.
In the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s October household survey, respondents’ median estimate of inflation over the previous 12 months was 9%, while their median expectation for the next 12 months was 9.8%.
