Uzbekistan is reportedly preparing to acquire fifth-generation fighter jets from China, a move that signals a significant shift in the country’s military strategy, according to the Tashkent Times. Historically dependent on Russian arms, Tashkent is now actively diversifying its defense partnerships, prompting analysts to see this as part of a broader regional realignment in Central Asia’s security architecture.

Experts from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan told Exclusive.kz that the transition has been years in the making. Zakir Usmanov, a defense analyst at Uzbekistan’s National Scientific Research Center “Bilim Karvoni,” noted that dissatisfaction with Russia’s performance in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was a turning point. “It became clear that Russia was no longer fulfilling its obligations under the CSTO,” he said. In response, Uzbekistan withdrew from the bloc and began upgrading its military with Chinese-made systems, affordable, functional, and supported by flexible financial and logistical arrangements.

“The example of Turkey shows that military modernization can be achieved relatively quickly,” Usmanov explained. “Uzbekistan’s decision to acquire Chinese aircraft is deliberate, they’re cost-effective and come with training and maintenance packages.”

Kazakhstan, by contrast, is taking a more cautious approach. Military expert Daulet Zhumabekov acknowledged similarities in both countries’ efforts to diversify military procurement but emphasized Kazakhstan’s deeper institutional ties to Russia through the CSTO, open borders, and economic integration within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

“For Kazakhstan, strategic balance is essential,” said Zhumabekov. “Turning completely away from Russia would be impractical, but relying solely on Moscow is also a strategic liability.”

Nevertheless, Kazakhstan has made incremental moves toward diversification, including the purchase of Turkish drones and Airbus transport aircraft, mainly for logistics and peacekeeping rather than combat roles. Zhumabekov pointed out that around 80% of Kazakhstan’s arms and ammunition still come from Russia, which he views as a significant vulnerability.

Kuat Dombay, director of the C5+ Central Asia Studies Center in Kazakhstan, noted that Uzbekistan has moved more decisively. “China’s willingness to share military technology makes it an attractive partner,” he said. He cited Pakistan’s jointly developed JF-17 fighter jet as evidence of Beijing’s growing capabilities. Uzbekistan has already begun pilot training on Chinese platforms, indicating that this is more than a procurement deal, it represents strategic integration.

Dombay also emphasized that defense cooperation with China and Turkey tends to be less politically provocative than with Western nations. “Deals with the U.S. or Europe can provoke backlash from Moscow,” he said. “But agreements with Beijing or Ankara are seen as more neutral.”

China’s ambitions in Central Asia are expanding. A recently released White Paper from Beijing positions China as a potential guarantor of regional security, a role long associated with Russia. With relations with the West under strain, China seeks stability along its borders, particularly in regions critical to its energy and infrastructure initiatives.

Dombay highlighted symbolic diplomacy, such as President Xi Jinping’s first post-pandemic state visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, during which he explicitly affirmed support for Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, an unusual gesture widely interpreted as a message to Moscow.

“Central Asia can benefit from balancing competing powers,” Dombay suggested. “It’s like Nepal maintaining autonomy between India and China, we can do the same.”

Looking forward, experts believe that real security will require more than diversified procurement. Regional cooperation, including joint defense production and potentially a regional military alliance, is seen as a long-term goal. While both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan manufacture armored vehicles, production remains duplicative. Dombay argues that a more rational division of labor, modeled on European defense coordination, would benefit all.

Still, political constraints remain. Zhumabekov expressed skepticism that Kazakhstan could lead such an initiative while it remains politically tethered to Moscow. “We’re not yet a fully independent strategic actor,” he said. “Until we can make autonomous decisions, true regional defense cooperation will remain out of reach.”

Nonetheless, the trajectory is clear. With Russia increasingly isolated due to its war in Ukraine and mounting international sanctions, Central Asian countries are quietly seeking alternatives. For now, China appears ready to fill the vacuum.