The sturgeon population in the Caspian Sea has plummeted by 90% over the past four decades, according to Sergei Ponomarev, a deputy of Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis (lower house of parliament). Speaking during a recent meeting of the Mazhilis Committee on Ecology, Ponomarev cited both the sea’s progressive shallowing and escalating environmental degradation caused by human activity as key contributors to the decline.

He emphasized that oil production and significant volumes of untreated domestic and industrial waste are the primary sources of pollution in the Caspian Sea. “Oil extraction suppresses the development of phytobenthos and phytoplankton, while sewage discharges have transformed the sea into a reservoir of infectious diseases. Biodiversity is in severe crisis,” he said.

The deteriorating water quality has also weakened the immune systems of marine species, leading to reduced disease resistance. As a result, the population of Caspian seals has dropped from one million to just 100,000, and sturgeon numbers have seen a dramatic 90% reduction, primarily due to reproductive disruptions at spawning sites.

Ponomarev warned of broader public health consequences in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau and Mangistau regions, including declining life expectancy and increasing cancer rates. He forecasted that by 2040, up to five million residents could become “ecological migrants” if conditions continue to worsen.

“The Caspian Sea Institute has been created, but it remains non-functional. We are losing invaluable time,” he said, urging the government to adopt a science-based approach to ecological monitoring and recovery efforts.

Kazakhstan approved the establishment of the Caspian Sea Institute in November 2023 to study and address the environmental degradation of the sea, including declining water levels and mass die-offs of marine life. However, Vice Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Mansur Oshurbaev reported that funding remains unresolved. The ministry has requested KZT 1.8 billion ($3.4 million) from the government’s reserve for 2025 to operationalize the institute, which will be based in Aktau with a staff of 91.

Oshurbaev also highlighted efforts to develop an environmental sensitivity map for Kazakhstan’s Caspian coastline, aimed at preventing oil spills and aiding biodiversity conservation.

Kazakh scientists predict a consistent decline in the sea level, which could reach minus 33 meters by 2050, a scenario they warn would be catastrophic for the ecosystem. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, according to the global movement, Save the Caspian Sea, the water level has already dropped by two meters over the past 18 years. If this trend continues, the sea could shrink by another 18 meters by the end of the century, risking an ecological disaster comparable to the collapse of the Aral Sea.