Multi-vector Foreign Policy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan’s High-Stakes Balancing Act in the Aktau Crash Investigation

The Aktau crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which killed 38 people on 25 December, was a tragic event with significant international repercussions. This devastating accident not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about aviation safety and the handling of sensitive investigations. As investigators sought to determine its cause, Kazakhstan faced an important decision regarding the handling of the flight recorder. Ultimately, the country chose to transfer the recorder to Brazil, the manufacturer of the aircraft, rather than to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as Russia had proposed. This decision reflected both technical and diplomatic considerations, marking a crucial moment in the unfolding investigation. By taking this decision, Kazakhstan adhered to established industry procedures for aviation safety investigations. Such a step highlights the country's commitment to transparency and global norms in aviation. The move is typical of the country's foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose long diplomatic experience leads him to emphasize a rules-based approach over political considerations and to act in accord with established procedural norms. This choice ensured that the investigation would follow established international practices, thereby lending credibility to the process and reassuring global aviation stakeholders. This behavior is also in line with Kazakhstan's broader commitment to international law and a rules-based global order. Another notable example of this approach was its endorsement of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity through its refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or the independence of the Donbas regions. These decisions were not necessarily easy ones, given Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties with Russia, but they reinforced its commitment to global standards. While some observers might frame decisions like the Aktau recorder transfer as a “snub” to Russia, such characterizations would miss the point. Like Kazakhstan’s refusal to recognize Donbas as independent and its efforts to prevent the flow of military components in violation of Western sanctions, its actions are not meant to be about rejecting one partner in favor of another. Rather, acting in its own autonomous interests, Kazakhstan seeks to "do the right thing," because this maintains a consistent international profile with a steady foreign-policy course grounded in international law and practice. Kazakhstan’s mediation efforts extend beyond formal multilateral forums, showcasing its active engagement in regional and global diplomacy. The country provided a neutral platform for discussions between opposing factions in the conflict over Syria; and it has also worked to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting purely bilateral consultations and thus demonstrating its capacity to engage constructively in regional conflicts without taking sides. These efforts are in line with Kazakhstan’s larger foreign-policy strategy to act as a principled and impartial intermediary on the global stage, fostering dialogue and reducing hostilities. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) reflects its dedication to multilateralism and peaceful conflict resolution. Kazakhstan exemplifies the rising middle-power archetype also through its significant contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation. Its foreign policy operates on...

Foreign Affairs Middle Powers UK Global Diplomacy Multi-vector Foreign Policy Bilateral Relations Diplomacy

British Think Tank: Kazakhstan is a Key Strategic Partner for the UK

On December 10, the British think tank the Henry Jackson Society presented its research report, “Understanding Kazakhstan’s Strategic Importance: A Middle Power Partner for the UK in Central Asia,” in the UK Parliament. The event was attended by members of both houses of the British Parliament and featured speeches by prominent figures, including Nusrat Ghani MP, Principal Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons; Magzhan Ilyassov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to the United Kingdom; Darren Spinck, the report’s author and associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society; Ekaterina Miroshnik, Director for Eurasia Infrastructure at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); and Enzo Satkuru-Granzella, business analyst at the UK Critical Minerals Association. Exploring Kazakhstan’s Strategic Role Darren Spinck emphasized that the report examines Kazakhstan’s evolving role as a middle power on the international stage, highlighting its advancements in political reforms and sustainable economic development. It also explores opportunities for enhancing trade and investment between the UK and Kazakhstan, particularly in critical minerals and transit-transport routes. The report includes recommendations for the British Government and Parliament to strengthen this partnership. Nusrat Ghani MP shared her personal efforts to deepen UK-Kazakh relations during her time as Business and Trade Minister (2022–2024) and Minister of State at the Foreign Office (2024). She expressed confidence that the report would provide members of Parliament with valuable insights into Kazakhstan’s importance as a global actor and as a key partner for the UK in Central Asia. Kazakhstan’s Global Diplomacy and Strategic Partnerships Ambassador Magzhan Ilyassov highlighted Kazakhstan’s balanced, multi-vector foreign policy, which aims to safeguard national interests while promoting global security and dialogue. He provided updates on Kazakhstan’s international initiatives, including efforts on nuclear non-proliferation, the proposal to establish an International Agency for Biological Safety (IABS), and the creation of a UN Regional Hub for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Ekaterina Miroshnik from the EBRD underscored Kazakhstan’s role in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. This trade route connects China with Europe and strengthens economic ties between Europe, Central Asia, and China. She highlighted the EBRD’s involvement in Middle Corridor projects, which are key to improving regional trade infrastructure. Enzo Satkuru-Granzella of the UK Critical Minerals Association noted Kazakhstan’s vast potential to contribute to the global supply chain of critical minerals. With its rich resource base, well-developed infrastructure, and skilled workforce, Kazakhstan is poised for long-term collaboration. He pointed to the Roadmap on critical minerals, signed between Kazakhstan and the UK in March 2024, as a solid foundation for mutual cooperation. Strengthening Bilateral Relations Participants at the event acknowledged Kazakhstan’s increasing geostrategic importance as a middle power and explored new avenues for strengthening ties between the two nations. A significant milestone in the bilateral relationship was the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, signed by Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu and the UK’s David Cameron in Astana on April 24, 2024. Great Britain remains one of Kazakhstan’s top foreign investors. Since 2005, the UK has invested...

Putin Russia Politics Ukraine Potential Nuclear Partners Bilateral Cooperation Multi-vector Foreign Policy Economic Cooperation Foreign Affairs International Diplomacy

Geopolitical Posturing or Genuine Partnership? Key Takeaways from Putin’s Trip to Kazakhstan

On November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for a state visit. He was met at the airport by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The streets of Astana, along Putin’s motorcade route, were adorned with Russian flags, creating a ceremonial backdrop for a meeting touted as a symbol of strategic partnership between the two nations. At the Akorda Presidential Palace, Tokayev hosted a reception for Putin that blended official decorum with cultural displays. The program featured children reciting poetry and participation in a collaborative painting led by renowned Kazakh artist Assol (Asel Sabyrzhankyzy), who named the artwork Bridge of Friendship and presented it to Putin. However, not all Kazakhstanis welcomed the visit with enthusiasm. Some citizens, concerned by Russia’s imperial overtones or sympathetic to Ukraine, expressed their dissent through an online flash mob. A banner at Astana Airport referring to Putin as “Your Excellency” sparked outrage among critics, who viewed it as excessive deference. Political analysts later clarified that the term has been consistently used for other high-level visitors to Kazakhstan. Putin’s state visit, described as a rare diplomatic event typically occurring once per presidential term, was notably proposed by Kazakhstan. During a press briefing, Putin remarked, “At your suggestion, this visit was given the status of a state visit, but I want to note that the solemn protocol did not prevent us from working productively, as is characteristic of our meetings.” Heightened Security Amid Geopolitical Tensions The visit came against the backdrop of growing geopolitical instability. Less than a week earlier, on November 21, Tokayev had instructed government agencies to heighten security following Russia’s test of the Oreshnik ballistic system in Ukraine. This context, paired with the substantial security measures surrounding the state visit, led observers to speculate that Russia’s own security concerns may have influenced the format. The official discussions were framed by frequent references to “strategic partnership” and the “geopolitical situation.” These themes culminated in a joint declaration entitled “Joint Statement of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the President of the Russian Federation on Deepening Strategic Partnership in the New Global Order.” The statement, structured in three main sections, outlined bilateral cooperation in political, economic, and security domains. Ambiguities in Counter-Terrorism and Political Statements The declaration’s political section raised some eyebrows, particularly the clause condemning recent “terrorist acts” in Russia and pledging closer intelligence cooperation to combat such threats. Questions remain over whether Kazakhstan considers only incidents like the Crocus City Hall attack on the outskirts of Moscow as terrorism, or whether the term extends to military actions tied to the Ukraine conflict. Another noteworthy point was the denunciation of “irresponsible statements” by public figures that undermine mutual respect between the two nations. This has been a sensitive issue for Kazakhstan, which has frequently faced provocative rhetoric from Russian propagandists and certain lawmakers. Tokayev himself rebuffed such remarks at the 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, firmly rejecting recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Economic Vision and Strategic Transport The economic...

Middle Powers Multi-vector Foreign Policy

Kazakhstan as an Emerging Middle Power

Earlier this year, the Paris-based Institut Montaigne and the Berlin-based Institute of Security and International Affairs separately published studies identifying Kazakhstan as a significant "middle power". They correctly make the case that Kazakhstan, leveraging its vast natural resources, particularly in energy, and a multi-vector foreign policy, has positioned itself as a key player in regional and global affairs. A middle power is a state wielding significant regional influence and influencing international affairs through diplomacy, economic strength, and strategic alliances, but which is not a superpower. With relatively stable political systems, growing economies, and proactive foreign policies, these states frequently act as mediators or bridge-builders in global conflicts. At the same time, they can pursue their own interests efficiently through a combination of soft power and multi-lateralism to balance relationships amongst external powers. To be a middle power, a nation should also demonstrate resilience, adaptability, and a commitment to international norms. Since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has attracted substantial foreign investment, leveraging its vast energy resources to build a robust economy, and using this to enhance its regional and global influence. Its geographical position makes it a key player in Central Asia. The country's leadership pioneered the "multi-vector" foreign policy that has become a model for many nations seeking to balance relations with major powers. Kazakhstan’s contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation have further solidified its status as a rising middle power. Its foreign-policy strategy deploys a careful balancing act between larger global powers and regional neighbors. Thus, its multi-vector approach allows it to maintain strong ties with Russia, China, and the West, while avoiding over-dependence on any single partner. The country participates in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Organization of Turkic States while also pursuing relationships with the European Union and the United States. This strategy secures Kazakhstan's sovereignty while enhancing its role as a mediator in international conflicts. Since independence, the country has taken the lead in promoting regional integration, energy cooperation, and security, often acting as a mediator in regional disputes. Its leadership roles in regional organizations and initiatives represent a recognition of its efforts to foster stability and economic development in the region. Kazakhstan’s championing of regional cooperation and the “demonstration effect” of its model of political and economic stability have reinforced its position as a leader in Central Asia. Kazakhstan has actively engaged in various international initiatives that bolster its reputation as a responsible and influential middle power. Notably, the country has played a pivotal role in global nuclear non-proliferation, voluntarily relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal and advocating for disarmament through platforms like the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Kazakhstan has also hosted peace talks, such as the Astana Process for Syria, and contributed to UN peacekeeping missions. These initiatives reflect Kazakhstan’s commitment to global stability, positioning it as a proactive player in international diplomacy and a respected advocate for the peaceful resolution of conflicts. Kazakhstan's internal reform agenda is crucial for its continued growth and its evolving role...

Global Outlook Multi-vector Foreign Policy

Kazakhstan: A Rising Global Player in Trade and Diplomacy

Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has become an increasingly important land-bridge between East and West, both in terms of trade and diplomacy. A vast nation the size of Western Europe with powerful neighbors in the form of China and Russia, yet on the doorstep of Europe with access to the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan’s location has elevated it to the cusp of becoming a global power. Given its geography, it is reasonable to assert that many decisions in Kazakhstan are, out of necessity, the result of a geopolitical tightrope act necessitating a balanced and far-reaching policy outlook. This strategic position has been described by Ariel Cohen, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, as a “visionary multi-vector policy pioneered” by President Tokayev. Indeed, “mutually beneficially cooperation” and “mutually beneficial strategic partnership” have become watchwords of Tokayev’s presidency. Due to projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan’s location has made it an indispensable ally to China. Playing a pivotal role in the expansion of transcontinental trade has led the whole of Central Asia to, in the words of Tokayev, “become a global stakeholder.” Trade turnover between Kazakhstan and China continues to expand, reaching $31.5 billion in 2023 (a 30% increase on 2022), and new transit routes are continuously under construction, with the Bakhty-Ayagoz railway line set to lead the opening of a third border crossing with China and increase the throughput capacity between the two nations from 28 million to around 48 million tons. Both cultural and political ties continue to grow, with a 30-day visa-free travel regime coming into force in November 2023. As for the total amount of Chinese investment in Kazakhstan over the past eighteen years, estimates vary from $23.2 to over $36 billion. Even these huge sums, however, are dwarfed in comparison to the Netherlands, which, in the last five years alone, has invested a colossal $33.8 billion in Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, according to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics data for January to December 2022, Italy was Kazakhstan’s largest exporter, accounting for 16.4% of exports worth $13.9 billion during this period. The strength of this partnership was evinced by President Tokayev paying an official visit to Italy in January 2024, during which he held talks with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and spoke about the two nations’ “dynamically” developing relationship and its “enormous potential”. As a block, the EU is Kazakhstan’s biggest overall trading partner, the destination for 39% of total exports and accounting for 29.4% of its total trade in 2021. Through initiatives such as the C5+1 and the B5+1, meanwhile, the United States has increasingly sought to engage with Central Asia, and with Kazakhstan in particular. With investment totaling $19.4 billion, the U.S. ranks second in terms of foreign investment over the past five years. A driving force behind this engagement has been the huge untapped reserves of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) located in Kazakhstan. According to the Brookings Institute, whilst China is the dominant player in...

Multi-vector Foreign Policy FDI

Kazakhstan’s Trade Policy Makes It a Nexus of Eurasian Supply Chains

Kazakhstan's foreign-trade priorities have markedly evolved in response to global market demands and geopolitical shifts. Historically, the country has relied on its neighbors, particularly Russia, for trade and economic security. However, in recent years, it has been strategically diversifying its trade partners to leverage its geographical position and resource wealth more effectively in the global market. This wealth includes significant reserves of oil, natural gas and minerals. In 2023, Kazakhstan's trade turnover broke a historical record and reached $139.8 billion. Top exports include crude petroleum, gold, refined copper, ferro-alloys, and copper ore. The strategy of diversification enhances Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and economic stability, providing support for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's multifaceted reform programs. These reforms include, among other things, increasing workers' salaries, reducing corruption, abolishing capital punishment, and decentralizing the government. In his state-of-the-nation address, Tokayev announced a transition to a new economic model involving further de-monopolization and diversification of the economy. The recent realignment of Kazakhstan's trade relationships is marked by China's ascendancy over Russia as the country's principal trading partner. This development in turn reflects regional trade dynamics and underscores broader geopolitical and economic trends within Central Asia. In 2023, yearly trade turnover between Kazakhstan and China surged 30% to $31.5 billion. This growth is emblematic of deepening economic ties and expanding trade routes across Eurasia, Asia, Africa, and Europe. China's investment in Kazakhstan, especially in infrastructure and energy sectors, is a critical factor in this ascendancy. China has invested $36.7 billion in Kazakhstan’s economy in the last 17 years, with two-thirds of this (or $25.2 billion) invested in the power sector. Approximately half of the investments are in oil and gas, while the rest are mainly in mining and ore processing, machine manufacturing, energy and food production. The partnership between Kazakhstan and China offers Kazakhstan significant economic growth opportunities, but necessitates careful navigation of its relationships with both China and Russia. President Tokayev is keenly attentive to balancing economic benefits with the need to maintain sovereignty and avoid over-dependence on a single partner. Russia's yearly trade turnover with Kazakhstan fell 3.7 percent to $26 billion in 2023. This decrease reflects the broader economic challenges and the volatility that Russia faces, impacting its capacity to engage in foreign trade at previous levels and pushing Kazakhstan to seek reliable and economically beneficial partnerships. This shift in trade dynamics illustrates the ongoing realignment in the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia. China's emergence challenges Russia's historical influence in Central Asia. Kazakhstan's enhanced cooperation with China reflects a strategic alignment and a hedging strategy against over-reliance on any single country. China's higher profile is not the only significant characteristic of Kazakhstan's evolving trade policy. Kazakhstan is actively expanding its trade relationships beyond its traditional partners to include countries in Europe and the Middle East. Italy has become Kazakhstan's third-largest trading partner, with a turnover of $16.1 billion in 2023, underscoring Kazakhstan's efforts to diversify its economic connections and enhance its trade portfolio with European nations. This growth highlights the potential for increased trade in goods...