More than a week has passed since Ukrainian drones attacked the Kropotkinskaya oil refinery, part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system. However, the incident remains a topic of heated debate in Kazakhstan.
What Happened?
On February 17, the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station, located in Kavkazsky district, Krasnodar Krai, was targeted by multiple UAVs carrying explosives and metal fragments. While there were no casualties, the facility sustained damage and was taken out of service.
Oil transportation through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline has since been rerouted via a bypass system, ensuring that shipments from the CPC Marine Terminal continue as normal.
On February 20-21, a Kazakh delegation, including Daniyar Berlibayev, special representative for the CPC project from KazMunayGas, and Yerbolat Mendybayev, Director of Transportation and Logistics at KazMunayGas, visited the Kropotkinskaya station alongside CPC Deputy General Director Hakim Kasymov to assess the damage.
At a CPC shareholders’ meeting in Abu Dhabi on February 25-26, CEO Nikolay Gorban presented a report on the extent of the damage, equipment dismantling progress, and contractor mobilization status. According to the CPC press service, shareholders pledged full support for repair work, which is expected to take approximately two months.
Kazakh Debate: Is Ukraine to Blame?
While CPC shareholders, including entities from Kazakhstan, Russia, Europe, and the United States, treated the issue as a technical problem, Kazakh public discourse took a different turn, led by Mazhilis deputies.
Parliamentarian Nikita Shatalov questioned Ukraine’s motivations on his Telegram channel:
“The Ukrainian side could not have been unaware that 90% of the oil transported through the pipeline is Kazakh, extracted from Tengiz, with revenues benefiting Western companies exporting to the EU. The pipeline is international, with KazMunayGas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Italy’s Eni as shareholders. This attack was clearly intended to damage Kazakhstan’s economic interests.”
Shatalov emphasized Kazakhstan’s neutral stance in the Ukraine-Russia war, pointing out that diplomatic contacts between Astana and Kyiv have continued at the highest levels, including President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s engagement with Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Those responsible for this attack on an international consortium must be punished. Kazakhstan must demand accountability from Ukraine for the damage inflicted and the threat to bilateral relations.”
His stance was echoed by Mazhilis deputy Marat Bashimov, who called the attack a “direct assault on Kazakhstan’s interests” in a Facebook post:
“The Ukrainian side knew exactly how strategically vital the CPC pipeline is for Kazakh oil exports.”
Bashimov argued that Kazakhstan has always upheld neutrality, supported diplomatic resolution efforts, and even refused to recognize the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics.
Kazakh Debate: Is Russia to Blame?
Not all deputies agreed. Mazhilisman Yermurat Bapi strongly rejected demands for Ukrainian compensation, arguing that Kazakhstan has no moral or legal grounds to make such a claim:
“For more than three years, Ukraine has been fighting for survival against an aggressor that invaded its territory. As part of this war, Ukraine has the right to choose its defense strategies.”
Bapi went further, blaming Kazakhstan’s overreliance on Russian infrastructure for the crisis:
“The CPC pipeline was a strategic mistake of ‘Old Kazakhstan.’ Betting exclusively on Russia, a country with an aggressive foreign policy, was always a risky decision.”
Expert Analysis: The Bigger Picture
Political scientist Daniyar Ashimbayev criticized the polarized debate, particularly arguments claiming the attack was “not Kazakhstan’s concern”:
“It’s amusing to watch certain analysts downplay the attack on the CPC as an ‘accident.’ Let’s not forget that the CPC was initiated by Chevron, which saw the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline as too risky and expensive.”
As tensions rise, the geopolitical intrigue surrounding the attack on the CPC continues to unfold.
