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CICA Summit

Central Asian Leaders Link Trade and Security at Baku Summit

Central Asian leaders called for better transport links and joint action on water shortages at the Baku summit in Azerbaijan on October 15, arguing that practical cooperation could prevent political disputes from turning into conflict. The seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) adopted the Baku Declaration, admitted Laos as a new member, and approved Azerbaijan’s continued chairmanship through 2028. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for an “infrastructure of trust” based on transparent government actions and the fulfillment of commitments. His proposed concept would connect conflict prevention with joint transport and energy projects, trade, and digital links. He pointed to the damage that conflicts in Asia were causing to economies and security far from the fighting. Mirziyoyev warned, “When dialogue weakens, the risk of misguided decisions increases.” He urged governments to prevent political disagreements from becoming armed confrontations. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed a preventive diplomacy mechanism within CICA, enabling members to contribute before a crisis develops. He told the summit, “Peace is best built before crises emerge.” According to the Azerbaijani state news agency AZERTAC’s account, the Baku Declaration includes provisions on economic ties, transport and digital connections, and energy security. It addresses the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence. Trade Routes Across the Caspian Sea The meeting came one week after the Avaza summit, where Central Asian presidents and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev discussed east-west and north-south trade routes. In Baku, those regional priorities entered a wider Asian forum, alongside calls to make commercial relationships more dependable. Tokayev proposed a CICA Transport Connectivity Strategy covering major routes, including the Middle Corridor across the Caspian Sea. He linked Azerbaijan’s rapprochement with Armenia to new opportunities for east-west transport. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon called in his summit address for simpler customs and logistics procedures and better connections between different forms of transport. He presented economic cooperation as a foundation for lasting peace, alongside continued action against terrorism and its financing. On the summit’s sidelines, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan discussed transport and transit cooperation. Their talks covered improvements to logistics infrastructure and international routes connecting Central Asia with the Caucasus, according to Turkmenistan’s government account. During a separate bilateral meeting, Tokayev and Aliyev inaugurated the Trans-Caspian Fiber-Optic Cable Line remotely, opening an approximately 380-kilometer connection between Aktau in Kazakhstan and Sumgayit in Azerbaijan. The project forms part of the Digital Silk Way initiative, with onward connections intended to carry data between China, Central Asia, and Europe. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development gives the cable a design capacity exceeding 400 terabits per second. The ministry says the additional route will provide backup for existing international connections and allow operators to distribute traffic across more channels. It expects the connection to attract investment in data centers and cloud services as Kazakhstan seeks a larger role in carrying international data. Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov similarly called for fiber-optic routes linking Asia and Europe. He invited technology companies to build data centers...

Railway Economics

Opinion: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway: Turning Transit Into Local Benefits

At the eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan on October 8, 2026, Azerbaijan joined the forum as a full member after three years of participation as a guest of honor. President Ilham Aliyev stated that “Transport is one of the primary areas of cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan”. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for comprehensive infrastructure along the routes, with logistics hubs and service centers supporting production facilities and industrial zones to generate economic activity around the transport corridors. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is among Uzbekistan’s transport priorities and is important for Kyrgyzstan, making this “integrated transport corridor development” approach particularly relevant. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (also known as the Kashgar-Torugart-Makmal-Jalal-Abad-Andijan railway) has been underway since December 2024. Public discussion of the project focuses mainly on shorter routes linking China and Central Asia with the Middle East and Europe, and on the line’s design carrying capacity. However, growth in transit traffic does not in itself guarantee economic benefits for the Naryn and Jalal-Abad regions of Kyrgyzstan or the Andijan region of Uzbekistan. Local economic impact depends on whether freight services and tariff policy allow small shippers to use the railway’s stations. Border delays can limit those benefits, as can a lack of storage and processing infrastructure nearby. What the Project Involves The intergovernmental agreement on the implementation of the project was signed by China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on June 6, 2024. The joint project company was registered in July 2024, the investment agreement was signed on December 20, 2024, and construction officially began on December 27, 2024, in Jalal-Abad. According to the Ministry of Transport of Uzbekistan, the total length of the line is 532.53 km; 20 stations are planned, including two border stations, one transshipment station, four intermediate stations, and 13 passing loops. The Makmal transshipment station will be the transfer point between China’s 1,435 mm track gauge and the 1,520 mm gauge used in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From Torugart to Makmal, the 165.5 km section will use the Chinese gauge. The 146.26 km section from Makmal to Jalal-Abad will use the wider gauge, connecting to the existing network toward Andijan. At Makmal, containers will be sorted and transferred between trains. Wagons can instead have their wheel assemblies changed to run on the other gauge. Freight trains will be assembled or split up at the station, which will also have facilities to weigh wagons and cargo. The parties estimate the cost of the project at USD 4.7 billion. Under the loan agreement signed on December 16, 2025, about USD 2.3 billion is provided by a syndicate of Chinese banks as a 35-year loan to the project company. Another USD 2.3 billion or so forms the project company’s charter capital. China holds 51% of the shares, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. As of October 2026, construction is underway along the entire length of the route. In September 2026, the project company reported the completion of the first tunnel...

Innovation Rankings

Central Asia in the Global Innovation Rankings: Supercomputers, Engineers, and the Economics of Government Ambitions

In the Global Innovation Index (GII), published on September 29 by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Kazakhstan climbed eight places to rank 73rd among 139 economies. Uzbekistan ranked 77th and Kyrgyzstan 92nd. Tajikistan placed 112th, while Turkmenistan was not included in the study. The overall rankings, however, conceal some interesting details. Uzbekistan ranks second worldwide in the share of graduates in science and engineering. Kyrgyzstan ranks second in labor productivity growth, while Tajikistan leads in utility model applications relative to the size of its economy. Utility models are a simpler form of patent protection, usually for smaller inventions. Such strong results in individual indicators stand in contrast to the countries' relatively modest overall rankings. Part of the explanation lies in the study's methodology. WIPO evaluates education and scientific capacity alongside infrastructure and investment. It also considers business activity and research output. A country may train large numbers of engineers or register technical innovations while lagging in research output and investment, with limited commercial activity. For Central Asia, the rankings also offer a way to compare economic performance with the scale of governments' technological ambitions. Kazakhstan: Supercomputers in Search of Customers In recent years, Kazakhstan has assembled an impressive portfolio of digital projects. The Alem.Cloud and Al-Farabium supercomputers, along with the Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz, are intended to improve the country's computing infrastructure. The Alem.ai artificial intelligence (AI) center and the KazLLM and AlemLLM large language models are designed to develop its AI capabilities. Training opportunities are also expanding through AI-Sana and Tomorrow School, with TUMO Astana offering education in AI and other digital fields. However, the wider use of AI remains relatively modest. The Digital Qazaqstan strategy through 2029 cites figures for the second half of 2025 showing that generative AI adoption in Kazakhstan stood at 13.7%, compared with a global average of 16.3%. Kazakhstan ranked 24th in the United Nations (UN) E-Government Development Index in its 2024 survey but 73rd in the 2026 GII. Kazakhstan's digitalization model has long centered on government services. The country's high position in the UN study reflects this focus. Commercial technologies present a more complicated picture: here, the government must rely on research teams, private developers, investors, and customers willing to pay for their services. The arrival of supercomputers expands the country's technical capabilities. How extensively they will be used outside government projects remains to be seen. Uzbekistan: Engineering Education and IT Services Exports The country has long focused on workforce development for the IT industry. An export-oriented digital services sector is growing around IT Park. Foreign companies are operating in the country, while training programs in programming and AI are expanding. Tashkent intends to support its workforce development policies with domestic computing infrastructure. Under the AI development strategy adopted in 2024, Uzbekistan plans $50 million in AI infrastructure spending and the training of one million specialists. AI laboratories are also planned at 15 universities. A smaller supercomputer is already operating, and preparations are underway to acquire a more powerful system....

Regional Cooperation

Opinion: Central Asia’s Minilateral Diplomacy and the Limits of Cooperation

In the contemporary, largely fragmented world order, the concept of minilateralism has become increasingly relevant. As less powerful, smaller states are struggling with often ineffective multilateral diplomatic frameworks, cooperation on a smaller scale has been gaining momentum in international relations. Central Asian countries, although with an intrinsic set of strengths and resources, still lack the power to individually address some of their own issues and advocate more proactively for their interests, especially in global forums dominated by major powers and entities. Geopolitical weaknesses of each Central Asian country lie in insufficiently developed domestic economic and military power to compete with much stronger neighbors such as Russia or China. Furthermore, unfavorable geography, where Central Asia, as a landlocked region, has limited access to global trade chains, also dilutes its geopolitical strength. In addition, the transboundary nature of critical resources, especially concerning water flows and supply, often causes tensions among states of Central Asia. In such discouraging circumstances, minilateralism promises more realistic solutions that can place Central Asia on a more equal footing with external partners and enable the region to play a more significant role in regional and, to some extent, international politics. That is why the consultative meetings of the five Central Asian countries (C5), now expanded to include Azerbaijan as C6, and C5+1 dialogues with external partners have become important platforms for Central Asia’s diplomatic standing. Minilateralism and Central Asia Minilateralism represents an international relations concept that implies cooperation of a smaller group of countries (usually three to nine members) in order to resolve shared problems or pursue mutual objectives. While bilateralism remains the main form of cooperation in international politics and multilateralism is necessary for tackling global issues, minilateralism has emerged as a more appropriate response for addressing specific regional issues in a more flexible and efficient manner. One of the main features of minilateralism is prioritizing shared interests over values or ideological principles, which allows collaborating states to focus more on solving issues and avoid being burdened by ideological discrepancies. Take, for example, the Abraham Accords that managed to gather countries with very different ideological views, especially Israel and the United Arab Emirates, but still produced tangible results of cooperation. Another advantage of minilateralism is a quicker response to crises, as well as opportunities, with less of the bureaucratic hassle that often follows multilateral diplomacy. For Central Asia, working together provides a stronger platform for negotiating better outcomes, especially in the economic area. While the current major geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Iran war, continue to shake the international order, the Central Asian countries have become more aware of their opportunities, especially in terms of transit routes and natural resource demand. Central Asia has definitely caught the attention of major powers, and its geographical position along alternative transportation routes, as well as its considerable wealth of natural resources, including hydrocarbons and critical materials, opens doors for the region to gain more influence and power. However, for all of these opportunities to materialize, Central...

Yandex Drone Attack

Drone Strikes on Russian Data Centers Disrupt Yandex Services Across Central Asia

Drone attacks on three Yandex data centers in Russia disrupted taxi, delivery, and other digital services in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. At the same time, the company said that Kazakh users’ personal data continued to be stored within Kazakhstan. The outages revealed how heavily Central Asia’s digital economy depends on computing infrastructure beyond its borders. Between October 8 and 11, drones attacked three Yandex data centers in Russia. The first facility hit was in Sasovo, in the Ryazan region, where two supercomputers used for artificial intelligence development were located. The center shut down completely. A subsequent strike hit a data center in Kaluga, disabling some of its equipment. On October 11, another attack forced a facility in Vladimir to shut down. Yandex confirmed the damage and said no employees were injured. Company specialists began redistributing computing workloads among the remaining operational sites, but it is not yet known when the damaged equipment will be fully restored. According to Reuters, the strikes on Russian data centers were part of an expansion of attacks on economic and technological infrastructure during Russia’s war against Ukraine. The consequences quickly spread beyond Russia. On October 11, users in Kazakhstan encountered problems ordering taxis, meals, and groceries through Yandex Go, Yandex Eats, and Yandex Lavka. The disruptions also affected scooter rentals and other applications. Drivers and couriers could not receive orders, while restaurants and stores temporarily lost access to some of their customers. Yandex Qazaqstan confirmed the technical problems. By evening, taxi booking was available again, although some functions continued to operate with restrictions. The company explained that when servers fail, computing tasks are transferred to other resources, but switching workloads takes time. Similar disruptions occurred in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Users reported errors when booking rides and ordering deliveries, as well as problems displaying fares. In Kyrgyzstan, Yandex’s local division acknowledged the problems and confirmed that damage to infrastructure in one country could disrupt applications in another. For Central Asia, this is more than a temporary inconvenience. Digital platforms have become part of the urban economy, supporting the work of drivers, couriers, restaurants, stores, and delivery services. When an application stops accepting orders, some market participants effectively lose access to customers. However, reliable estimates of financial losses in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are not yet available. It is unclear how many orders were lost or whether partners will be compensated for their losses. The outages also affected Yandex’s financial services. Dmitry Pirogov, head of the company’s fintech division, said on October 11 that users were temporarily unable to check their balances, pay for purchases, or transfer money through Yandex Pay. According to him, account information is stored in multiple copies, and checks found no loss of records. However, data preservation did not ensure uninterrupted access to financial transactions. This distinction proved particularly important for Kazakhstan. Following the widespread outages, questions arose about why damage to servers in Russia affected applications in Kazakhstan despite local legal requirements to store personal data within the country. Yandex Qazaqstan said...

Water Security

Central Asia Agrees New Water Limits, but National Quotas Remain Unclear

Water has repeatedly caused friction between Central Asian governments. Uncoordinated releases have flooded communities downstream, while disputes over access have contributed to deadly fighting along contested borders. On October 7, the region's countries agreed on water withdrawals from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya for fall and winter 2026–2027, though published results do not reveal how much water each country will receive. The agreements were reached at the 95th meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) in Avaza, on Turkmenistan's Caspian coast near Turkmenbashi. Participants agreed on national water withdrawal limits and projected reservoir operating schedules, but the figures remain in unpublished annexes to the meeting protocol. Regional cooperation has grown in recent years. In June, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan agreed on water releases and electricity supplies for the 2026 irrigation season, continuing efforts to coordinate reservoir operations across borders. Despite this progress, longstanding tensions remain. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need water in the winter to generate electricity, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan need it in the summer for irrigation. Bishkek has revived proposals for its neighbors to share the costs of maintaining reservoirs, while Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Canal could put further pressure on the Amu Darya. Countries are also trying to resolve discrepancies in river-flow measurements. [caption id="attachment_58085" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Officials from Central Asian countries attend talks on cross-border cooperation and sustainable development in the Amu Darya basin in Turkmenistan. Image: State News Agency of Turkmenistan[/caption] From Flooded Villages to Border Clashes The competing demands of electricity generation and agriculture are particularly evident in the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan's Toktogul Reservoir sits on the Naryn River, the Syr Darya's main tributary. In winter, Kyrgyzstan releases water to generate electricity, months before downstream farmers need it for irrigation. When these releases exceed the capacity of reservoirs and canals, the excess water can cause flooding. In February 2004, residents of Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region experienced the consequences of uncoordinated water releases. The Syr Darya overflowed its banks, forcing the evacuation of at least 200 families. Ice had already restricted the river's flow, worsening the flooding. According to NASA, Kyrgyzstan was releasing more water from its hydropower system than the agreements allowed, with the excess flow entering the Shardara Reservoir. Uzbekistan agreed to divert some of the water into the Arnasay lake system, but it was not possible to divert the entire volume needed. As a result, the river flooded areas farther downstream. In the Amu Darya basin, disagreements developed differently. In 2012, then-Uzbek President Islam Karimov warned that disputes over water resources could lead to war. The source of tension was the construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant in Tajikistan. Tashkent feared that a large dam on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya, would allow Dushanbe to influence the volume of water reaching Uzbekistan's agricultural regions. The confrontation was accompanied by interruptions in gas supplies to Tajikistan, transport restrictions, and mutual accusations. Dushanbe linked Tashkent's actions to pressure over the Rogun project, although the Uzbek side disputed that...