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Fossil-Fuel Rich UAE Drives Central Asia’s Green Energy Transition

Central Asian nations, especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are seeking to develop closer ties with the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. What they need from the Gulf state is not fossil fuels, but renewable energy technology and investment in their green energy sectors. Despite being a significant oil-exporter, the UAE has managed in recent years to position itself as a regional leader in solar energy and photovoltaic solar projects. As a result, it now has global aspirations in the renewable energy industry. The Gulf country, through its semi-government-owned company, Masdar, has already invested billions of dollars in the construction of wind farms and solar plants all over the world – from the Bahamas and Barbados to Australia, as well as several African and European nations. Central Asia is no exception. In the region, the green energy giant is particularly active in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. It is, therefore, no surprise that, on January 14, two regional leaders, Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, were major guests at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, a global platform focused on accelerating sustainability efforts. [caption id="attachment_27597" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] President Tokayev of Kazakhstan speaking at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week; image: TCA, Nikola Mikovic[/caption] Their visit to the UAE signals a strong push for a green energy transition at home. For Tashkent and Astana, cooperation with Abu Dhabi in the field of green energy can help them to achieve their ambitious goals and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, despite both being significant producers of natural gas and oil. “Together with our foreign partners, we are currently implementing more than 50 large energy projects worth a total of $26 billion,” Mirziyoyev stressed, pointing out that by 2030, the share of renewable energy sources in the country will reach 54%. [caption id="attachment_27593" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev backstage at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week; image: TCA, Nikola Mikovic[/caption] In his view, Central Asia should turn into a “center of green economy.” The Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Francesco La Camera, seems to share this stance. “Central Asia can play a stronger and leading role in the global energy transition. I’m confident this new partnership can accelerate the pipeline of renewable energy projects and drive green industrialization,” La Camera said at the 15th session of the IRENA Assembly, held in the UAE capital two days prior to the meetings Mirziyoyev and Tokayev had with the UAE’s leaders. According to the Uzbek President, Tashkent is interested in jointly realizing the potential of Central Asia in solar, wind, and hydro energy, as well as in developing the production of green hydrogen. Fully aware of the Central Asian state’s green energy potential, Masdar is committed to investing $2 billion in Tashkent’s clean energy projects with a total capacity of more than two gigawatts. In the most populated Central Asian nation, the UAE’s semi-state-owned company is already involved in the construction of both solar plants and wind farms. [caption id="attachment_27594" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Abdulaziz Alobaidli, Masdar’s Chief Operating Officer, at the Abu...

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New U.S. Anti-Russian Sanctions Could Spell Trouble for Central Asian Economies

On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. The measures, which affect a wide range of organizations and individuals, are set to take effect on February 27. While ostensibly aimed at undermining Russia’s economic interests amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the sanctions are likely to have significant repercussions for Central Asian countries given their close economic ties with Russian energy giants. The sanctions package, viewed by some analysts as a final move by the outgoing Biden administration, could become a potent tool for the incoming administration to exert influence over Russian interests in Central Asia. Sanctions on Gazpromneft Subsidiaries The new sanctions include restrictions on Gazpromneft's subsidiaries operating in Central Asia. Affected entities include Gazpromneft Tajikistan, Gazpromneft Kazakhstan, Gazpromneft Asia (Kyrgyzstan), and Munai Myrza (Kyrgyzstan). According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Gazpromneft and its regional subsidiaries are considered critical sources of revenue that support Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. In response, Gazpromneft characterized the sanctions as "unfounded, illegitimate and contrary to the principles of free competition." The impact of these sanctions, however, could prove severe for the economies of Central Asia, where Gazpromneft plays a key role in the energy sector. Gazpromneft Asia, for example, is a major supplier of petroleum products in Kyrgyzstan, making it a critical player in the domestic market. Sanctions on the company could disrupt fuel supplies and drive up energy prices in the country. Gazpromneft Kazakhstan LLP, based in Almaty, operates a network of Gazpromneft-branded gas stations in Kazakhstan. While disruptions to fuel supplies in this network might not critically affect Kazakhstan’s economy - the largest in Central Asia - the sanctions carry broader implications. Threats to Joint Projects Beyond direct sanctions on companies, several executives of Russian oil firms actively operating in Kazakhstan have been added to the U.S. sanctions list. Key figures include Vadim Vorobyev, President of Lukoil PJSC and a member of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Investors Council. Lukoil is a strategic partner of KazMunaiGas (KMG) in production and exploration projects; Nail Maganov, CEO of Tatneft, which collaborates with KMG on projects such as Karaton Podsolovaya, Butadiene, and the Saran Tire Plant; Alexander Dyukov, the Chairman of Gazpromneft, and Sergei Kudryashov, CEO of Zarubezhneft, which has signed letters of intent for joint projects with KMG. These sanctions could complicate existing partnerships and delay key projects, undermining Kazakhstan’s energy sector and its broader economic growth. Sanctions on Rosatom and Nuclear Energy Another significant element of the sanctions package is the inclusion of Rosatom executives on the U.S. sanctions list. This development poses challenges to Kazakhstan’s plans to establish an international consortium - including representatives from France, South Korea, China, and Russia - to build a nuclear power plant. With Rosatom facing restrictions, the consortium is now likely to exclude Russia, potentially straining relations between Astana and Moscow. A global leader in nuclear energy, Rosatom was expected to play a central role in the project. Kazakhstan may now explore alternative arrangements, balancing its energy ambitions with the...

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Central Asia Tackles Plastic Pollution with Bag Ban Initiatives

Globally, an estimated 5 trillion plastic bags are used every year. These bags take approximately 1,000 years to decompose in landfills and do not fully break down. Instead, they photodegrade into microplastics, which absorb toxins and continue to pollute the environment. Recognizing the urgency of this issue, Central Asian countries are committing to phasing out plastic bags, each pursuing distinct approaches. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan plans to introduce a draft national program to reduce plastic pollution for 2025–2027. This initiative is part of the draft State Program for the Implementation of the Strategy "Uzbekistan-2030" in the Year of Environmental Protection and Green Economy, currently under public discussion. The proposal includes: A ban on the production, import, and use of plastic bags starting in 2027. Promoting environmentally friendly, biodegradable packaging. Regulating harmful chemicals in plastic products. Encouraging recycled plastic use in packaging through established coefficients. The draft program is expected to be developed by September 2025 and submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers by November 2025. A related draft presidential decree outlines additional measures, such as: Developing legislation requiring manufacturers and importers of plastic packaging to collect and dispose of plastic waste. Establishing collection and disposal facilities. Imposing a disposal fee for plastic waste by November 1, 2025. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan had initially planned to ban plastic bags by 2025. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources determined that the country is not yet prepared for this transition. Research reveals a significant gap: while the consumption of plastic tableware and packaging exceeds 430 million pieces annually, the production of alternative materials is limited to only 10 million pieces. This disparity highlights the urgent need to develop sustainable packaging solutions before implementing a comprehensive ban. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is set to ban the use of polyethylene bags and plastic nationwide starting January 1, 2027. The Law on Limiting the Circulation of Polymer Film and Plastic Bags in the Territory of the Kyrgyz Republic, signed by President Sadyr Japarov in 2023, outlines penalties for violations: For citizens: Fines of 10,000 KGS (approximately $114.90). For legal entities: Fines of 28,000 KGS (approximately $321.80). Warnings will be issued for first-time violations involving the free distribution of plastic bags. Subsequent violations will incur fines: For legal entities: 5,000 KGS (approximately $57.40). For individuals: 1,000 KGS (approximately $11.40). Tajikistan Tajikistan will implement a ban on the import and use of plastic bags starting January 1, 2025. To support this transition, authorities have focused on developing environmentally friendly packaging alternatives made from materials such as cardboard, paper, fabric, ceramics, and biodegradable polymers. These varied approaches reflect the commitment of Central Asian countries to tackling the global challenge of plastic pollution. By balancing environmental priorities with practical considerations, these nations aim to create a cleaner, more sustainable future.

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EDB Forecasts 8.4% GDP Growth for Tajikistan in 2025

Tajikistan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 8.4% in 2025, driven by favorable trade and investment dynamics, rising gold export prices, and decreasing energy import costs, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). This optimistic forecast surpasses the Tajik government’s minimum expectation of 8.0% growth. The EDB predicts that inflation will rise to 5.9% in 2025, returning to the National Bank of Tajikistan’s (NBT) target range of 6.0% (+/- 2 percentage points) by the end of the year. Analysts attribute this inflationary uptick to strong domestic demand. In 2024, Tajikistan recorded a historic low inflation rate of 3.6% - the lowest since the country’s independence. However, a slight increase in the refinancing rate, by 1 percentage point, is expected as inflation adjusts back to the target range. The refinancing rate has remained at 9.0% since August 5, 2024. The EDB also forecasts a slight devaluation of the somoni, Tajikistan’s national currency, with the exchange rate expected to reach 11 somoni per US dollar by the end of 2025. This adjustment is attributed to higher imports and a decline in remittance volumes. Currently, the somoni trades at 10.9450 per dollar, reflecting a 0.2% appreciation against the dollar in 2024, according to data from the National Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Times of Central Asia previously highlighted the main short-term risks for Tajikistan’s economy from 2024 to 2026, but the EDB’s projections signal a positive outlook for 2025. Key growth drivers, such as trade, investment, and favorable market conditions, are expected to bolster economic performance despite currency pressures. Despite the fact that the Government of Tajikistan claims the poverty level in the country has decreased (the poverty threshold is not specified), in reality a huge swathe of the male population is working abroad in an attempt to feed their families. Up to 40% of households in Tajikistan have at least one member working abroad. According to the World Bank-KNOMAD, migrants’ remittances to Tajikistan in 2022 amounted to 5.346 billion dollars (39.6% of the country’s GDP). This makes Tajikistan one of the most remittance-based economies in the world. This story was last updated on 10 January 2025 at 10:23GMT

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Heads of Kyrgyz, Tajik, and Uzbek Governments Meet… Finally

It took more than 30 years, but the prime ministers of the three Central Asian countries that share the Ferghana Valley finally met to discuss a range of important issues that concern all three states. Tajik Prime Minister Kohir Rasulzoda, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, and Chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers (Kyrgyzstan does not have a post of prime minister) Adylbek Kasymaliyev met on January 8 at a desolate area where the borders of the three countries meet. [caption id="attachment_27412" align="aligncenter" width="8256"] Image: gov.kg[/caption] The group touted agreements on the completion of the delimitation process along the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border and the early December 2024 agreement on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. Since 1991, unmarked areas of the borders in the Ferghana Valley were often the scenes of conflicts between communities on either side of the frontier. Border guards sometimes fired on trespassers and dozens of people were killed or wounded, sometimes simply because they inadvertently strayed over unmarked territory into the neighboring country. The Ferghana Valley is the most densely populated region in Central Asia. This is due to the rich agricultural land which makes the region to this day the breadbasket of Central Asia. Soviet mapmakers drew lines to create Soviet republics in the region, though these borders mattered little since they were internal administrative boundaries inside one country. [caption id="attachment_27413" align="aligncenter" width="8256"] Image: gov.kg[/caption] After the USSR collapsed, these often-arbitrary, zigzagging borders took on meaning, and disputes quickly broke out about what land historically belonged to which nation and who had rights to water use. These issues were greatly complicated by the existence of enclaves created during the Soviet period such as Uzbekistan’s Soh and Shahimardon and Tajikistan’s Vorukh, all three of which are surrounded by Kyrgyzstan. Looking Ahead The three prime ministers discussed hydropower plants (HPP), an important topic for all three countries, especially as key HPPs are located in the mountains ringing the Ferghana Valley and more are currently under construction. Central Asia is one the regions most affected by climate change, so HPPs and water use in general are crucial issues, especially given that agriculture in the Ferghana Valley is vital to all three countries. All three countries face electricity shortages and hydropower is seen as a means of alleviating or even totally resolving this dilemma, but at the same time waters flowing from the mountains of Kyrgyzstan are important for agriculture in every Central Asian state. Uzbek media noted Uzbek Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov was part of the delegation attending the January 8 talks. Reports did not mention if energy ministers from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were also present. [caption id="attachment_27414" align="aligncenter" width="8256"] Image: gov.kg[/caption] Central Asia is also taking on a new importance as a trade corridor between Europe and China, and from Europe and China into Afghanistan and on further to Pakistan. Reports noted logistics were high on the agenda at the meeting of the three prime ministers. Trade between the three countries, specifically in the Ferghana Valley, was also discussed not only...

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AIIB Commits $500 Million to Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project

The Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved a multiphase program totaling $500 million, including an initial Phase 1 loan of $270 million, to support Tajikistan’s flagship Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) project. The announcement was made on January 6, following the financing approval on December 19, 2024. The Rogun HPP, located on the Vakhsh River — a tributary of the Amu Darya River — lies 110 kilometers from Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s capital. With a designed generation capacity of 3,780 MW, a 335-meter-high dam, and a reservoir spanning 170 square kilometers, the Rogun HPP is expected to deliver improved electricity access to around 10 million people. It aims to address Tajikistan’s chronic winter power shortages and position the country as a key regional energy supplier. The project is co-financed with the World Bank, with potential contributions from a global consortium of donors. It seeks to enhance the supply of clean, affordable, and climate-resilient hydropower, with the potential to export electricity to neighboring Central Asian countries. As Central Asia’s energy demand is projected to grow by 40% by 2030 and triple by 2050, the Rogun HPP will play a pivotal role in increasing reliability and reducing the cost of electricity supply across the region. Konstantin Limitovskiy, AIIB Chief Investment Officer, commented on the significance of the project, stating: "This project will significantly contribute to the green energy transition and energy security of Central Asia. Investing in sustainable energy infrastructure is not merely about meeting today’s demands, but about empowering future generations with clean, reliable power that drives transformative growth, strengthens resilience, and unlocks the full potential of the region." Tajikistan ranks eighth globally in hydropower potential, yet only about 4% of this capacity is currently utilized. The Rogun HPP is set to play a critical role in decarbonizing electricity grids across Central Asia, supporting the region’s ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.